ABSTRACT
Objective:The purpose of this study was to explore the critical values of monitored indexes of perioperative major adverse cardiac events(MACE), so as to take effective prevention and treatment measures in time to maintain the stability of perioperative cardiac function to further improve the perioperative safety of elderly patients with biliary diseases.Methods:The clinical data of 246 elderly patients with biliary diseases in our hospital from May 2016 to February 2022 were collected.According to whether MACE occurred during the perioperative period, they were divided into the MACE group and the non-MACE group.The differences of clinical data, the monitoring indexes of postoperative cardiac function, and the coagulation function between the two groups were compared and analyzed.Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of perioperative MACE, the cut-off value of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was calculated, and the Logistic multivariate prediction model was established.Results:In the MACE compared with the non-MACE group, age, postoperative complications and mortality, postoperative hospital stay, and the levels of postoperative high sensitivity troponin-I(Hs-TnI), creatine kinase isoenzyme(CK-MB), myoglobin(MYO), B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP), and D-dimer(D-D)were significantly increased(all P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression showed that postoperative BNP and D-D were two independent risk factors for perioperative MACE, and their cut-off values in the ROC curve were 382.65 pg/mL and 0.975mg/L respectively.The Logistic multivariate prediction model established by the Logistic regression equation was P= ex/(1+ ex), X=-5.710+ 0.003X 1+ 0.811X 2, where X 1 was the postoperative BNP level and X 2 was the postoperative D-D level.The accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of this prediction model for predicting perioperative MACE were 96.3%(237/246), 100.0%(235/235), and 18.2%(2/11). Conclusions:The Logistic multivariate prediction model established in this study can effectively predict the occurrence of perioperative MACE in elderly patients.Postoperative BNP and D-D were two independent risk factors for perioperative MACE.The cut-off values of BNP and D-D in the ROC curve could be used as critical values for monitoring perioperative MACE.Therefore, it is of great clinical significance to take effective prevention and treatment measures in time to maintain the stability of perioperative cardiac function, and further improve the perioperative safety of elderly patients with biliary diseases.