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Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.
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{L-End}Objective To understand the influence of job burnout and anxiety symptoms on work ability of biosafety laboratory (BSL) workers in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. {L-End}Methods A total of 5 808 BSL workers in Xinjiang Region were selected as the research subjects using cluster sampling method. The Job Burnout Questionnaire, Anxiety Self-rating Scale and Work Ability Index Questionnaire were used to evaluate their job burnout, anxiety symptoms and work ability. The mediation effect of anxiety symptoms on the relationship between job burnout and work ability was tested by stepwise regression analysis. {L-End}Results The detection rate of job burnout, anxiety symptoms and poor working ability was 83.1% (4 829/5 808), 37.2% (2 160/5 808) and 5.8% (339/5 808), respectively. There was a positive correlation between job burnout and anxiety symptoms score in BSL workers ［correlation coefficient (r) was 0.48, P<0.01］. The score of job burnout and anxiety symptoms was negatively correlated with the work ability score (r were -0.58, -0.51, both P<0.01). The results of mediation effect analysis show that the total effect of job burnout on work ability was -0.31, with the direct effect of -0.15. The mediation effect of anxiety symptoms on the relationship between job burnout and work ability was -0.16, accounting for 51.6% of the total effect. {L-End}Conclusion The detection rates of job burnout and anxiety symptoms among BSL workers in Xinjiang Region are relatively high. Anxiety symptoms show a mediate effect on the relationship between job burnout and work ability. The work ability of BSL workers can be improved by improving job burnout and anxiety symptoms.
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Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. “Infectious diseases”, “early warning” and “prediction” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.
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Objective:According to Xinjiang's project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, this paper explores issues on discipline subject, talents, and cooperative research to provide decision-making references.Methods:Information about the funded research in Xinjiang during 2014-2018 was collected from NSF annual funding project statistical report, scientific project funding guidelines and related literature articles, retrospective statistical analysis were conducted to discuss the overall situation and trends.Results:There were 2 295 research projects were funded in Xinjiang by NSF from 2014 to 2018, with a total funding amount of 105.056 billion yuan.The number of projects funded was decreased by an average of 1.12% of the national level. The largest number of funded research came from regional support, accounted for 1 683, among which most of the projects were supported by the Ministry of Life Sciences accounted for 525 and 31.78% of the total funding. The lowest number of research funded was by the Department of Mathematics, Physics, Information Science, and Management Science, accounted for 76 and 4.6%.Conclusions:Compare to the total number of projects funded in the whole country, the proportion of projects funded in Xinjiang has declined. Xinjiang internally-funded universities and regions have developed imbalanced.Local talent has been seriously drained, and there is a lack of discipline leaders. It is recommended to strengthen project cooperation and retain talent.
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Objective Through the analysis of the data such as the publication of the paper and the scientific research project of urumqi disease prevention and control center from 2008 to 2017,the research ability level of the center is comprehensively evaluated.Methods In this paper,the entropy weight method is used to process and analyze the data.According to the results of information entropy and weight,the comprehensive scores of each index project are obtained and sorted.Results The information entropy of the paper is the smallest,the weight is the largest,the information entropy of the scientific progress award and the result identification is the largest,and the weight is the smallest.The top four years in the comprehensive score are:2016,2017,2014 and 2015;The ranking year is 2012,2010,2013 and 2011 respectively.The last two years are 2008 and 2009.Conclusions Urumqi center for disease control and prevention,2008-2017,scientific research and comprehensive ability level,although each year a little ups and downs,but overall present a curve upward trend,have a qualitative leap in the area of scientific research,achieved the zero breakthrough,and formed a "scientific promoting business,business support scientific research "as the new situation.
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Objective To analyze the publication of Chinese scientific research papers from medical institutions in Urumqi,Xinjiang from year 2003 to 2015,to understand the status quo of paper publication by medical personnel in this area,to find objective evidence for the scientific research development of medical institutions in Urumqi,also figure out the differences of different institutions,to summarize the developing trend which will help for identify the distribution features,as well as optimizing scientific research paper management at local area.Methods Literature metrology was applied to analyze Chinese paper publication from medical institutions during 2003-2015 in Urumqi,Xinjiang.Results A total number of 56 684 Chinese scientific papers were published in 13 years with the average growth of 12.93％ each year.Among which,the number of core journal articles is 4 167 accounted for 60.28％.Consider to the distribution of years,7 073 papers,accounted for 13.4％ of the total number,were published in 2014;Xinjiang Medicine published most of the articles with a number of 6 166 (10.88％);the Saybagh District of Urumqi published 18 980 papers (33.48％) which were more than other places.Comparative analysis was also conducted among different level hospitals.The publication conditions of different hospitals have a p value less than 0.01 which shows the significant statistical difference.Considering to the distribution of geographical areas,the result was x2 =1 439.566,F ＜0.01,it also has statistical significance.Conclusions The total number of Chinese scientific paper publication in Urumqi,Xinjiang medical institutions was kept increasing during the year 2003 to 2015,however,there were a lot of variations among different medical institutions,geographical areas and medical personnel.Thus medical institutions should pay more attention to the talent training and scientific research,improve the scientific research management to enhance the capacity of scientific research.