ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:To work out the optimal inventory levels in zero inventory management mode through model predic-tion and control strategy,by using the inventory upper & lower limits settings generally available in the information management system of health care institutions. METHODS:Multi-varieties joint ordering modelwas constructed by referring to operations management,time series analysis and quantitative approach to decision-making,that is,to make a prediction of upper&lower lim-its on medicine inventory based on historical data and applicable mathematical models(fixed order interval model and re-order mod-el,i.e. FOI and ROP),and compared with real results;based on above,specific medicine procurement and inventory control strat-egies would be developed and an evaluation of the application effects would be made. RESULTS:The error test and reproducibility test exhibited that the out-of-stock ratio remained under 3.36%,of which 71.24% could be effectively alarmed;under computer simulation and practical operation,the instant replenishment rate reduced by 9.33% and 13.03%,OOS ratio down by 11.11% and 27.45%,and average daily inventory turnover rate up by 30.19% and 15.85% respectively,all showing remarkable improvements compared to before the implementation of the mode. CONCLUSIONS:This model is of favorable accuracy and operability,there-fore it can lay foundation for rational and well-founded decisions in medicine procurement and inventory control in zero inventory management mode.