ABSTRACT
Objective To predict the potential suitable habitat of Haemaphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios. Methods The geographic locations of ticks in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2022 were captured from literature review and field ticks monitoring data from Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Heilongjiang Province, and the tick distribution sites with spatial correlations were removed using the software ArcGIS 10.2. The environment data under historical climatic scenarios from 1970 to 2000 and the climatic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario model from 2021 to 2040 and from 2041 to 2060 were downloaded from the WorldClim website, and the elevation (1 km, 2010), population (1 km grid population dataset of China, 2010) and annual vegetation index (1 km, 2010) data were downloaded from the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The contribution of environmental factors to H. concinna distribution was evaluated and environmental variables were screened using the software MaxEnt 3.4.1 and R package 4.1.0, and the areas of suitable habitats of H. concinna and changes in center of gravity were analyzed using the maximum entropy model in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios. In addition, the accuracy of the maximum entropy model for prediction of H. concinna distribution was assessed using the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 79 H. concinna distribution sites and 24 environmental variables were collected, and 70 H. concinna distribution sites and 9 environmental factors that contributed to distribution of the potential suitable habitats of H. concinna in Heilongjiang Province were screened. The three most significant contributing factors included precipitation seasonality, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter, with cumulative contributions of 60.7%. The total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna was 29.05 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under historical climatic scenarios, with the center of gravity of suitable habitats located at (47.31° N, 129.16° E), while the total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna reduced by 0.97 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under the climatic SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, with the center of gravity shifting to (47.70° N, 129.28° E). Conclusions The distribution of suitable habitats of H. concinna strongly correlates with temperature and humidity in Heilongjiang Province. The total area of potential suitable habitats of H. concinna may appear a tendency towards a decline with climatic changes in Heilongjiang Province, and high-, medium- and low-suitable habitats may shift.