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Objective@#To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of Brucellosis, epidemic encephalitis B and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gansu province during 2014-2018 so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of those diseases.@*Methods@#A database was established in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018, using the geographical information system. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the 3-dimention of the diseases, by using both ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 softwares.@*Results@#Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south parts while the U type curve could reflect the distribution from the east to the west areas. Incidence of epidemic encephalitis B decreased significantly from south to north areas in the province, with incidence higher in the eastern than in the mid-west region. Difference on the incidence of HFRS was not significantly visible in the eastern and western regions, while the incidence was slightly higher in the southern than the northern parts of the province. Spatial and space-time clustering did exist among the 3 diseases in Gansu from 2014 to 2018. The areas with clusters of Brucellosis appeared in the eastern parts during 2014-2015, including 19 counties. The areas with secondary clusters of Brucellosis were seen in the Hexi district, including 4 counties, during 2017-2018. The areas with high incidence of epidemic encephalitis B were clustered in the middle and southeast areas, including 32 counties, during 2017-2018. Areas with most clusters of HFRS appeared in Min county of Dingxi city in 2018, with the areas of secondary clusters in 8 counties of the eastern areas in 2018.@*Conclusions@#The overall incidence rates of the 3 natural focus diseases were in a upward trend and showing obvious characteristics on spatial clustering. According to the distributive characteristics, effective measures should be developed accordingly.
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Objective To optimize the warning threshold values of common communicable diseases in Gansu province,and improve the early warning effect.Method An early warning model was set up for influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,viral hepatitis type E and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) respectively in Gansu by using the moving percentile method and cumulative sum method.By calculating the sensitivity,specificity,predictive value of positive test,predictive value of negative test,Youden'index and receiver-operating characteristic curve,the optimum early warning threshold values for communicable diseases in Gansu were selected.Results The optimum early warning boundary values of influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,and viral hepatitis type E were P90,P80,P95,P90,P80 and P90 respectively.The optimum early warning parameters of HFMD were k =1.2,H=5σ.Under the optimum early warning boundary values/parameters,the early warning sensitivities of influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,viral hepatitis type E and HFMD were 86.67％,100.00％,91.67％,100.00％,100.00％,100.00％ and 100.00％,the specificities were 86.49％,62.22％,75.00％,100.00％,97.92％,89.13％ and 74.47％.The predictive values of positive test were 72.22％,29.17％,52.38％,100.00％,80.00％,54.55％ and 29.41％,and the predictive values of negative test were 94.12％,100.00％,96.77％,100.00％,100.00％,100.00％ and 100.00％,and the Youden'indexes were 0.73,0.62,0.67,1.00,0.98,0.89 and 0.74.Receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that the values/parameters of this warning boundary were the points closest to the upper left of the coordinate diagram.Conclusion The early warning thresholds of influenza,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery and hepatitis E in Gansu may be raised appropriately and the early warning parameters of HFMD need to be adjusted to improve the effectiveness of early warning.
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Objective To optimize the warning threshold values of common communicable diseases in Gansu province,and improve the early warning effect.Method An early warning model was set up for influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,viral hepatitis type E and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) respectively in Gansu by using the moving percentile method and cumulative sum method.By calculating the sensitivity,specificity,predictive value of positive test,predictive value of negative test,Youden'index and receiver-operating characteristic curve,the optimum early warning threshold values for communicable diseases in Gansu were selected.Results The optimum early warning boundary values of influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,and viral hepatitis type E were P90,P80,P95,P90,P80 and P90 respectively.The optimum early warning parameters of HFMD were k =1.2,H=5σ.Under the optimum early warning boundary values/parameters,the early warning sensitivities of influenza,scarlet fever,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,viral hepatitis type E and HFMD were 86.67％,100.00％,91.67％,100.00％,100.00％,100.00％ and 100.00％,the specificities were 86.49％,62.22％,75.00％,100.00％,97.92％,89.13％ and 74.47％.The predictive values of positive test were 72.22％,29.17％,52.38％,100.00％,80.00％,54.55％ and 29.41％,and the predictive values of negative test were 94.12％,100.00％,96.77％,100.00％,100.00％,100.00％ and 100.00％,and the Youden'indexes were 0.73,0.62,0.67,1.00,0.98,0.89 and 0.74.Receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that the values/parameters of this warning boundary were the points closest to the upper left of the coordinate diagram.Conclusion The early warning thresholds of influenza,other infectious diarrheal diseases,dysentery and hepatitis E in Gansu may be raised appropriately and the early warning parameters of HFMD need to be adjusted to improve the effectiveness of early warning.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To understand the hot/cold spots and the spatial-temporal clustering of hepatitis B in Gansu province during 2009-2014 by using spatial statistics, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of hepatitis B.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The spatial hot/cold spots and its trend, and the time frame and areas of its spatial-temporal clustering of hepatitis B in Gansu were analyzed by using the county specific incidence of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2014 and spatial statistical software GeoDa and SatScan.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The incidences of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2014 in Gansu were spatial autocorrelated respectively. Local G scan statistics indicated that the number of hot spots was in decline in Hexi area, while the hot spots was in increase in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture and Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture. There was no obvious pattern in cold spots. Temporal-spatial scan statistics showed that the areas with high hepatitis B incidence most likely clustered in Hexi area during 2009-2011, and the areas with low hepatitis B incidence most likely clustered in eastern Gansu during 2012-2014.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>The spatial and temporal clustering of hepatitis B was observed in Gansu from 2009 to 2014. The number of hot spots in Hexi area was in decline, while the numbers of hot spots in Linxia and Gannan were in increase, suggesting that the hepatitis B control and prevention in these areas should be strengthened.</p>
Subject(s)
Humans , China , Epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Epidemiological Monitoring , Hepatitis B , Epidemiology , Incidence , Software , Spatio-Temporal AnalysisABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To understand the spatial-temporal specific incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Gansu.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The county-based incidence of pulmonary TB in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 was used to calculate Moran's I and G statistics, and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of areas with different pulmonary TB incidences.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The spatial correlation in incidence of pulmonary TB was found in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 (P<0.001), and the hot spot areas were mainly in Hexi area, Linxia, part of Dingxi, while the cold spot areas were in Lanzhou, part of Dingxi, Tianshui, Pingliang and Qingyang. Spatial-temporal analysis showed that the clustering of high pulmonary TB incidence areas were most likely in the Hexi area during 2009-2010 (LLR=3,031.10, RR=2.27, P<0.001), and the clustering of low pulmonary TB incidence areas were most likely in Lanzhou during 2011-2013 (LLR=1,545.52, RR=0.37, P<0.001).</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The analysis on spatial and spatial-temporal specific incidences of pulmonary TB in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 indicated that Hexi area is the key area in pulmonary TB prevention and control in Gansu.</p>
Subject(s)
Humans , Biometry , China , Epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Incidence , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary , EpidemiologyABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>The purpose of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and spatial clustering of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Gansu, 2012.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Spatial autocorrelation and Spatial scanning analysis were used to conduct spatial statistical analyses for the HFMD at the county/district level.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>HFMD cases did not show a random distribution but with significant spatial aggregation. When Local Autocorrelation analysis was applied at the county/district level, with nine hot spot areas as Jiayuguan, Yumen, Dunhuang, Jinta, Suzhou, Chengguan, Anning, Xigu and Gaolan, were discovered. Four statistically significant HFMD clusters were identified by spatial scan statistics.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>HFMD was noticed geographically clustered in Gansu in 2012. Results from this study indicated that the spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning analysis could effectively detect the areas which presenting significant clusters. Cluster Detection System (CDS) could provide evidence for the development of an effective measure concerning the prevention and control of HFMD.</p>
Subject(s)
Humans , China , Epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Epidemiology , Spatial AnalysisABSTRACT
Objective To study the effects of DMF on the quality of spermatozoa and sex hormone levels in male mice,and the possible mechanism. Methods Forty male KM mice were randomly divided into four groups and then treated with DMF dissolved in distilled water by gavage (10 ml/kg) at the doses of 0,0.5,1 and 2 g/kg,once a day for 30 consecutive days. The mice were weighted and then sacrificed on day 31. The epididymises were collected for determination of sperm motility,sperm counting and determination of abnormal sperm rate. The T,LH,and FSH levels in serum were determined. Results Compared with the control group,mice in all treated groups showed significant decrease in body weight (P