ABSTRACT
Objective To grasp the distribution of iodine in drinking water in the environment of Hainan Province,and provide scientific basis for prevention and treatment of iodine deficiency disorders.Methods In 2017,in all cities (counties,districts) in Hainan Province,townships were used as units to collect water samples to detect iodine content according to their different water supply methods.In the townships with median drinking water iodine ＞ 10 μg/L,the administrative village (neighborhood committee) was used as a unit to collect water sample to detect iodine content.According to the geographical location (central mountainous area,eastern coast,western coast),water source type (tap water,intubation well,spring water),and well depth,the distribution of water iodine was analyzed.Results A total of 2 566 water samples were detected in 21 cities (counties,districts),the median water iodine was 6.0 μg/L,range was 0.1-150.6 μg/L,the median water iodine of all cities (counties,districts) was ＜ 10 μg/L.The median water iodine in the central mountainous area,eastern coast,and western coast were 3.3,6.5,6.5 μg/L,respectively;tap water,intubation well,and spring water were 5.6,6.4,1.3 μg/L,respectively;0-,100-,200-,≥300 m well depth were 6.6,5.1,4.2,and 1.5 μg/L,respectively.The water iodine content range was 0.2-17.9 μg/L in 230 townships in the province,there were 12 townships with the median water iodine ＞ 10 μg/L,including 133 administrative villages (neighborhood committees),and 737 water samples were detected,the water iodine content range was 1.0-37.1 μg/L.Conclusions All cities (counties,districts) in Hainan Province belong to iodine deficiency areas,the central mountainous area is even more serious.Most of the townships in the province are in iodine deficiency.No administrative villages (neighborhood committeea) with high iodine have been found.The province should continue to implement salt iodization to prevent and treat iodine deficiency disorders.
ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province,and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide.Methods The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January,2014 and December,2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June,2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model.Results During January,2014 to June 2017,a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan,the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000.The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality,the predicted mortality rate was within the 95％ confidence interval of the actual rate.Conclusion The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,0) 12",and the prediction effect of the model was better,which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.
ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province,and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide.Methods The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January,2014 and December,2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June,2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model.Results During January,2014 to June 2017,a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan,the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000.The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality,the predicted mortality rate was within the 95％ confidence interval of the actual rate.Conclusion The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,0) 12",and the prediction effect of the model was better,which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.