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@# Objective To establish the optimal epidemical trend prediction model of influenza in Jiangxi Province and provide scientific guidance for influenza prevention and control. Methods Monthly influenza sentinel surveillance data of Jiangxi Province were derived from the “Influenza Surveillance Information System In China” from 2013 to 2017, and the different forecasting methods were used to build model, such as autoregressive(AR),exponential smoothing(ES) and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), also compared predictions with actual values in 2017. Results R square of the three models were 0.731, 0.751 and 0.815 respectively; the root mean square error(MRSE) were 0.253, 0.243 and 0.212, respectively; mean absolute error(MAE)were 0.189, 0.178 and 0.151, respectively; mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) were 10.092, 9.523 and 8.124 respectively; the average relative error (MRE) were 11.45%, 10.92% and 8.96%, respectively. Conclusions ARIMA was a good model for predicting the percentage of influenza-like illness in outpatient visits in Jiangxi Province.
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This article summarized Professor WANG Xing-kuan's experience in the differentiation and treatment of ulcerative colitis from the etiology, pathogenesis, treatment, prescription rules and other aspects. It focused on the thinking of the diagnosis and treatment named "method for regulating multiple organs and comprehensive treatment", "treatment of diseases by regulating the liver" and its specific application in the treatment of ulcerative colitis.
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<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Thoracolumbar burst fracture is a common clinical injury, and the fracture mechanism is still controversial. The aim of this research was to study the formation of intracanal fracture fragments in thoracolumbar burst fractures and to provide information for the prevention of thoracolumbar bursts fractures and reduction of damage to the nervous system.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A nonlinear three-dimensional finite element model of T11-3 segments was established, and the injury processes of thoracolumbar bursts were simulated. The intact finite element model and the finite element model after the superior articular were impacted by 100 J of energy in different directions. The distribution and variation of stress in the superior posterior region of the L1 vertebral body were analyzed. Abaqus 6.9 explicit dynamic solver was used as finite element software in calculations.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model of the thoracolumbar spine was created. In the intact model, stress was concentrated in the superior posterior region of the L1 vertebral body. The stress peak was a maximum for the extension impact load and a minimum for the flexion impact load. The stress peak and contact force in the facet joint had close correlation with time. The stress peak disappeared after excision of the superior articular process.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>The three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model was suitable for dynamic analysis. The contact force in the facet joint, which can be transferred to the superior posterior vertebral body, may explain the spinal canal fragment in thoracolumbar burst fractures.</p>
Subject(s)
Adult , Humans , Male , Biomechanical Phenomena , Finite Element Analysis , Lumbar Vertebrae , Wounds and Injuries , Models, Biological , Spinal Canal , Spinal Fractures , Stress, Mechanical , Thoracic Vertebrae , Wounds and InjuriesABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the efficacy of unilateral pedicle screw fixation through the pedicle of fractured vertebra in combination with the short segment of pedicle screw in the treatment of thoracolumbar fracture of mild to moderate instability.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Twenty-six patients with single segment thoracolumbar fracture received unilateral pedicle screw fixation through the pedicle of fractured vertebra in combination with the short segment of pedicle screw from January 2008 to December 2009. There were 16 patients were male and 10 were female with an average age of 47.3 years (range from 39 to 60 years). Fracture severity score was constructed by using the load-sharing classification (4 points for 2 cases, 5 points for 14 cases, 6 points for 10 cases). By Frankel assessment system, 2 cases were in grade C, 3 in grade D, 21 in grade E. The assessment included anterior vertebral body height, the sagittal Cobb angle, the restoration of nervous function, visual analogue score (VAS) and Oswestry disability index (ODI).</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The follow-up after the surgery was 13 - 26 months, with an average of 18.6 months. There were no fixation failure, defined as implant failure or ≥ 10° correction loss. The neurological status of 4 patients, who had an associated neurologic deficit preoperatively, was completely recovered. The Frankel grade of another case was re-rated D from the original C. The mean anterior vertebral body height increased from 57.0% ± 6.3% before the surgery to 93.1% ± 1.7% at the last follow-up(F = 455.276, P < 0.05). The sagittal Cobb angle decreased from 15.6° ± 4.7° before the surgery to 2.6° ± 5.2° at the last follow-up (F = 34.623, P < 0.05). VAS and ODI were 1.0 ± 0.7 and 17.0 ± 5.9 at the last follow-up.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Unilateral pedicle screw fixation through the pedicle of fractured vertebra combined with the short segment of pedicle screw is effective for thoracolumbar fracture with mild to moderate instability.</p>