ABSTRACT
Objective:To construct a nomogram prediction model for survival after radical surgical resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the albumin-bilirubin index (ALBI), and to evaluate its predictive efficacy.Methods:From January 2016 to January 2020, 170 patients with ICC who underwent radical surgical resection at the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University were retrospectively analyzed. There were 90 males and 80 females, aged (58.5±10.6) years old. Based on a ratio of 7∶3 by the random number table, the patients were divided into the training set ( n=117) and the internal validation set ( n=53). The training set was used for nomogram model construction, and the validation set was used for model validation and evaluation. Follow up was conducted through outpatient reexamination and telephone contact. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, and a nomogram was drawn based on variables with a P<0.05 in multivariate Cox regression analysis. The predictive strength of the predictive model was evaluated by analyzing the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and clinical decision curve of the training and validation sets. Results:Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) ≥37 U/ml ( HR=1.99, 95% CI: 1.10-3.60, P=0.024), ALBI≥-2.80 ( HR=2.43, 95% CI: 1.40-4.22, P=0.002), vascular tumor thrombus ( HR=2.34, 95% CI: 1.40-3.92, P=0.001), and the 8th edition AJCC N1 staging ( HR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.21-3.95, P=0.010) were independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival of ICC patients after curative resection. The predictive model constructed based on the above variables was then evaluated, and the C-index of the model was 0.76. Calibration curve showed the predicted survival curve of ICC patients at 3 years after surgery based on the model was well-fitted to the 45° diagonal line which represented actual survival. Clinical decision curve analysis showed that the model had a significant positive net benefit in both the training and validation sets. Conclusion:The nomograph model for survival rate after radical resection of ICC was constructed based on four variables: ALBI, CA19-9, vascular tumor thrombus, and AJCC N staging (8th edition) in this study. This model provided a reference for more accurate prognosis evaluation and treatment selection plan for ICC patients.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To study the factors influencing survival after radical resection in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), and to construct a nomogram on survival prediction.Methods:The clinical data of 139 patients with ICC who underwent radical resection at the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University from June 2018 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. There are 69 males and 70 females, aged (59.5±10.2) years old. These patients were divided into two groups based on a 3: 1 ratio by using the random number method: the test group ( n=104) and the validation group ( n=35). Data from the test group was used to construct a nomagram and data from the validation group was used to validate the predictive power of the nomagram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to analyse factors influencing survival on the test group patients and to construct a nomogram. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Results:The results of the multivariate regression analysis showed that a combined hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet immunoinflammation (HALP) score <37.1 ( HR=1.784, 95% CI: 1.047-3.040), CA19-9 > 35U/ml ( HR=2.352, 95% CI: 1.139-4.857), poorly differentiated tumor ( HR=2.475, 95% CI: 1.237-4.953) and vascular invasion ( HR=1.897, 95% CI: 1.110-3.244) were independent risk factors that affected prognosis of patients with ICC after radical resection (all P<0.05). The AUCs of the nomogram in the test group in predicting the overall survival at 1, 2 and 3 years of patients with ICC after radical resection were 0.808, 0.853 and 0.859, respectively. There was good consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observation. The predicted C-index of the total survival period of the test group was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.704-0.826), and the C-index of the validation group was 0.759 (95% CI: 0.673-0.845). Conclusion:A HALP score <37.1, CA19-9>35 U/ml, poorly differentiated tumour and vascular invasion were independent risk factors for prognosis of ICC patients after radical resection. The nomogram was established based on the above factors and showed good performance in predicting overall survival after radical resection in patients with ICC.
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Objective:To determine the risk factors for development of combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).Methods:The clinical data of patients with ICC or CHC confirmed by pathology at Henan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2012 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Of 225 patients with ICC or CHC, there were 90 males and 135 females, aged (58.7±10.4) years old. Based on the pathological type, there were 172 patients in the ICC group and 53 patients in the CHC group. The healthy control group was selected from 450 individuals who underwent routine health examination in the same hospital, and there were 189 males and 261 females, aged (56.7±9.3) years old. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of ICC and CHC.Results:The risk factors of ICC included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (+ )/hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) (+ ) ( OR=9.373, 95% CI: 4.784-18.363, P<0.001), hepatitis C virus antibody (HCV-Ab) (+ ) ( OR=7.151, 95% CI: 1.195-42.776, P=0.031), diabetes mellitus ( OR=3.118, 95% CI: 1.733-5.612, P<0.001) and hepatolithiasis ( OR=18.650, 95% CI: 5.210-66.767, P<0.001). The risk factors of CHC included HBsAg (+ )/anti-HBc(+ )( OR=54.891, 95% CI: 17.434-172.822, P<0.001) and HCV-Ab (+ ) ( OR=37.785, 95% CI: 5.720-249.611, P<0.001). Conclusion:HBV infection, HCV infection, hepatolithiasis, diabetes mellitus and cirrhosis were risk factors for ICC. HBV and HCV infection were risk factors of CHC.
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Objective To study the drifting law of floats and potential risks of Oncomelania hupensis diffusion in the water diversion rivers of the east route of South?to?North Water Diversion Project. Methods The O. hupensis snails in the river chan?nels were monitored by the salvage method and snail luring method with rice straw curtains,and the diffusion possibility of snails along with water was assessed through the drift test of floats with GPS. Results In the flood seasons from 2006 to 2013, totally 8 338.0 kg of floats were salvaged,and 2 100 rice straw curtains were put into water in the Li Canal and Jinbao shipping channel,but no Oncomelania snails were found. The drift test of floats with GPS before water diversion showed that the flow ve?locity on water surface(northbound)was 0.45 m/s,the average drift velocity of the floats was 0.56-0.60 m/s,and the average drift distances each time were 999.70- 1 995.50 m in the Gaoshui River section,while there were no obvious drift in Jinbao shipping channel section. During the water diversion period,the flow velocity on water surface(northbound)was 0.45 m/s,the average drift velocity of the floats was 0.35-0.41m/s,and the average drift distances each time were 1 248.06-1 289.44 m in the Gaoshui River,while in Jinbao shipping channel section,the flow velocity on water surface was 0.28 m/s,the average drift velocity of the floats was 0.25- 0.27 m/s,and the average drift distances each time were 477.76- 496.38 m. The drift test showed that the floats gradually closed to the river bank as affected by water flow,wind direction and ship waves,when blocked by the reeds,water plants or other obstacles,and they would stopped and could not continue to drift without outside help. Con?clusions There are no Oncomelania snails found in the river channels of the east route of South?to?North Water Diversion Proj?ect. The drifting distance of the floating debris along with the water is restricted by the flow rate and shore environment.