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1.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-915544

ABSTRACT

Background@#A rapid decline in immunity and low neutralizing activity against the delta variant in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccinees has been observed. This study describes an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) breakthrough infections caused by the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in a psychiatric closed ward. @*Methods@#Data from epidemic intelligence service officers were utilized to obtain information regarding demographic, vaccination history, and clinical data along with SARSCoV-2 PCR test results for a COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in a closed psychiatric ward. @*Results@#Among the 164 residents, 144 (87.8%) received two doses of vaccines, with 137 (95.1%) receiving two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. The mean interval between the second dose of vaccine and COVID-19 diagnosis was 132.77 ± 40.68 days. At the time of detection of the index case, SARS-CoV-2 had spread throughout the ward, infecting 162 of 164 residents. The case-fatality ratio was lower than that in the previously reported outbreak before vaccines were available (1.2%, 2/162 vs. 6.9%, P = 0.030). Prolonged hospitalization occurred in 17 patients (11.1%) and was less prevalent in the vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group (8.5% vs. 25.0%, P = 0.040). @*Conclusion@#The findings of this study highlight that while vaccination can reduce mortality and the duration of hospitalization, it was not sufficient to prevent an outbreak of the SARSCoV-2 delta variant in this psychiatric hospital setting.

2.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899964

ABSTRACT

Background@#Remdesivir is widely used for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but controversies regarding its efficacy still remain. @*Methods@#A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the effect of remdesivir on clinical and virologic outcomes of severe COVID-19 patients from June to July 2020. Primary clinical endpoints included clinical recovery, additional mechanical ventilator (MV) support, and duration of oxygen or MV support. Viral load reduction by hospital day (HD) 15 was evaluated by calculating changes in cycle threshold (Ct) values. @*Results@#A total of 86 severe COVID-19 patients were evaluated including 48 remdesivirtreated patients. Baseline characteristics were not significantly different between the two groups. Remdesivir was administered an average of 7.42 days from symptom onset. The proportions of clinical recovery of the remdesivir and supportive care group at HD 14 (56.3% and 39.5%) and HD 28 (87.5% and 78.9%) were not statistically different. The proportion of patients requiring MV support by HD 28 was significantly lower in the remdesivir group than in the supportive care group (22.9% vs. 44.7%, P = 0.032), and MV duration was significantly shorter in the remdesivir group (average, 1.97 vs. 5.37 days; P = 0.017). Analysis of upper respiratory tract specimens demonstrated that increases of Ct value from HD 1–5 to 11–15 were significantly greater in the remdesivir group than the supportive care group (average, 10.19 vs. 5.36; P = 0.007), and the slope of the Ct value increase was also significantly steeper in the remdesivir group (average, 5.10 vs. 2.68; P = 0.007). @*Conclusion@#The remdesivir group showed clinical and virologic benefit in terms of MV requirement and viral load reduction, supporting remdesivir treatment for severe COVID-19.

3.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899941

ABSTRACT

Background@#This study presents a framework for determining the allocation and distribution of the limited amount of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). @*Methods@#After analyzing the pandemic strategies of the major organizations and countries and with a literature review conducted by a core panel, a modified Delphi survey was administered to 13 experts in the fields of vaccination, infectious disease, and public health in the Republic of Korea. The following topics were discussed: 1) identifying the objectives of the vaccination strategy, 2) identifying allocation criteria, and 3) establishing a step-bystep vaccination framework and prioritization strategy based on the allocation criteria. Two rounds of surveys were conducted for each topic, with a structured questionnaire provided via e-mail in the first round. After analyzing the responses, a meeting with the experts was held to obtain consensus on how to prioritize the population groups. @*Results@#The first objective of the vaccination strategy was maintenance of the integrity of the healthcare system and critical infrastructure, followed by reduction of morbidity and mortality and reduction of community transmission. In the initial phase, older adult residents in care homes, high-risk health and social care workers, and personal support workers who work in direct contact with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients would be prioritized. Expansion of vaccine supply would allow immunization of older adults not included in phase 1, followed by healthcare workers not previously included and individuals with comorbidities. Further widespread vaccine supply would ensure availability to the extended adult age groups (50–64 years old), critical workers outside the health sector, residents who cannot socially distance, and, eventually, the remaining populations. @*Conclusion@#This survey provides the much needed insight into the decision-making process for vaccine allocation at the national level. However, flexibility in adapting to strategies will be essential, as new information is constantly emerging.

4.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899916

ABSTRACT

We used the nationwide claims database to calculate the incidence of thrombotic events and predict their overall 2-week incidence. From 2006 to 2020, the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) tended to increase. Unlike intracranial venous thrombosis (ICVT) and intracranial thrombophlebitis (ICTP), which showed no age difference, other venous embolism, and thrombosis (OVET), DIC, DVT, and PE were significantly more common in over 65 years.The overall 2-week incidence of ICVT was 0.21/1,000,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11–0.32). ICTP, OVET, DIC, DVT and PE were expected to occur in 0.08 (95% CI, 0.02– 0.14), 7.66 (95% CI, 6.08–9.23), 5.95 (95% CI, 4.88–7.03), 13.28 (95% CI, 11.92–14.64), 14.09 (95% CI, 12.80–15.37) per 1,000,000, respectively. To date, of 8,548,231 patients vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Korea, two had confirmed thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome within 2 weeks. The observed incidence of ICVT after vaccination was 0.23/1,000,000.

5.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899840

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccinations for healthcare workers (HCWs) have begun in South Korea. To investigate adverse events (AEs) of the first dose of each vaccine, any symptom was collected daily for seven days after vaccination in a tertiary hospital. We found that 1,301 of 1,403 ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 recipients and 38 of 80 BNT162b2 recipients reported AEs respectively (90.9% vs. 52.5%): injection-site pain (77.7% vs. 51.2%), myalgia (60.5% vs.11.2%), fatigue (50.7% vs. 7.5%), headache (47.4% vs. 7.5%), and fever (36.1% vs. 5%; P < 0.001 for all). Young HCWs reported more AEs with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 than with BNT162b2.No incidences of anaphylaxis were observed. Only one serious AE required hospitalization for serious vomiting, and completely recovered. In conclusion, reported AEs were more common in recipients with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 than in those with BNT162b2. However, most of the reported AEs were mild to moderate in severity. Sufficient explanation and preparation for expected AEs required to promote widespread vaccination.

6.
Infection and Chemotherapy ; : 166-219, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-898621

ABSTRACT

Despite the global effort to mitigate the spread, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic that took more than 2 million lives. There are numerous ongoing clinical studies aiming to find treatment options and many are being published daily. Some effective treatment options, albeit of variable efficacy, have been discovered. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an evidence-based methodology, to continuously check for new evidence, and to update recommendations accordingly. Here we provide guidelines on pharmaceutical treatment for COVID-19 based on the latest evidence.

7.
Infection and Chemotherapy ; : 395-403, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-898603

ABSTRACT

Neutralizing antibodies targeted at the receptor-binding domain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein have been developed and now under evaluation in clinical trials. The US Food and Drug Administration currently issued emergency use authorizations for neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in non-hospitalized patients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at high risk for progressing to severe disease and/or hospitalization. In terms of this situation, there is an urgent need to investigate the clinical aspects and to develop strategies to deploy them effectively in clinical practice. Here we provide guidance for the use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of COVID-19 based on the latest evidence.

8.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-892260

ABSTRACT

Background@#Remdesivir is widely used for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but controversies regarding its efficacy still remain. @*Methods@#A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the effect of remdesivir on clinical and virologic outcomes of severe COVID-19 patients from June to July 2020. Primary clinical endpoints included clinical recovery, additional mechanical ventilator (MV) support, and duration of oxygen or MV support. Viral load reduction by hospital day (HD) 15 was evaluated by calculating changes in cycle threshold (Ct) values. @*Results@#A total of 86 severe COVID-19 patients were evaluated including 48 remdesivirtreated patients. Baseline characteristics were not significantly different between the two groups. Remdesivir was administered an average of 7.42 days from symptom onset. The proportions of clinical recovery of the remdesivir and supportive care group at HD 14 (56.3% and 39.5%) and HD 28 (87.5% and 78.9%) were not statistically different. The proportion of patients requiring MV support by HD 28 was significantly lower in the remdesivir group than in the supportive care group (22.9% vs. 44.7%, P = 0.032), and MV duration was significantly shorter in the remdesivir group (average, 1.97 vs. 5.37 days; P = 0.017). Analysis of upper respiratory tract specimens demonstrated that increases of Ct value from HD 1–5 to 11–15 were significantly greater in the remdesivir group than the supportive care group (average, 10.19 vs. 5.36; P = 0.007), and the slope of the Ct value increase was also significantly steeper in the remdesivir group (average, 5.10 vs. 2.68; P = 0.007). @*Conclusion@#The remdesivir group showed clinical and virologic benefit in terms of MV requirement and viral load reduction, supporting remdesivir treatment for severe COVID-19.

9.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-892237

ABSTRACT

Background@#This study presents a framework for determining the allocation and distribution of the limited amount of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). @*Methods@#After analyzing the pandemic strategies of the major organizations and countries and with a literature review conducted by a core panel, a modified Delphi survey was administered to 13 experts in the fields of vaccination, infectious disease, and public health in the Republic of Korea. The following topics were discussed: 1) identifying the objectives of the vaccination strategy, 2) identifying allocation criteria, and 3) establishing a step-bystep vaccination framework and prioritization strategy based on the allocation criteria. Two rounds of surveys were conducted for each topic, with a structured questionnaire provided via e-mail in the first round. After analyzing the responses, a meeting with the experts was held to obtain consensus on how to prioritize the population groups. @*Results@#The first objective of the vaccination strategy was maintenance of the integrity of the healthcare system and critical infrastructure, followed by reduction of morbidity and mortality and reduction of community transmission. In the initial phase, older adult residents in care homes, high-risk health and social care workers, and personal support workers who work in direct contact with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients would be prioritized. Expansion of vaccine supply would allow immunization of older adults not included in phase 1, followed by healthcare workers not previously included and individuals with comorbidities. Further widespread vaccine supply would ensure availability to the extended adult age groups (50–64 years old), critical workers outside the health sector, residents who cannot socially distance, and, eventually, the remaining populations. @*Conclusion@#This survey provides the much needed insight into the decision-making process for vaccine allocation at the national level. However, flexibility in adapting to strategies will be essential, as new information is constantly emerging.

10.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-892212

ABSTRACT

We used the nationwide claims database to calculate the incidence of thrombotic events and predict their overall 2-week incidence. From 2006 to 2020, the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) tended to increase. Unlike intracranial venous thrombosis (ICVT) and intracranial thrombophlebitis (ICTP), which showed no age difference, other venous embolism, and thrombosis (OVET), DIC, DVT, and PE were significantly more common in over 65 years.The overall 2-week incidence of ICVT was 0.21/1,000,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11–0.32). ICTP, OVET, DIC, DVT and PE were expected to occur in 0.08 (95% CI, 0.02– 0.14), 7.66 (95% CI, 6.08–9.23), 5.95 (95% CI, 4.88–7.03), 13.28 (95% CI, 11.92–14.64), 14.09 (95% CI, 12.80–15.37) per 1,000,000, respectively. To date, of 8,548,231 patients vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Korea, two had confirmed thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome within 2 weeks. The observed incidence of ICVT after vaccination was 0.23/1,000,000.

11.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-892136

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccinations for healthcare workers (HCWs) have begun in South Korea. To investigate adverse events (AEs) of the first dose of each vaccine, any symptom was collected daily for seven days after vaccination in a tertiary hospital. We found that 1,301 of 1,403 ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 recipients and 38 of 80 BNT162b2 recipients reported AEs respectively (90.9% vs. 52.5%): injection-site pain (77.7% vs. 51.2%), myalgia (60.5% vs.11.2%), fatigue (50.7% vs. 7.5%), headache (47.4% vs. 7.5%), and fever (36.1% vs. 5%; P < 0.001 for all). Young HCWs reported more AEs with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 than with BNT162b2.No incidences of anaphylaxis were observed. Only one serious AE required hospitalization for serious vomiting, and completely recovered. In conclusion, reported AEs were more common in recipients with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 than in those with BNT162b2. However, most of the reported AEs were mild to moderate in severity. Sufficient explanation and preparation for expected AEs required to promote widespread vaccination.

12.
Infection and Chemotherapy ; : 166-219, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-890917

ABSTRACT

Despite the global effort to mitigate the spread, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic that took more than 2 million lives. There are numerous ongoing clinical studies aiming to find treatment options and many are being published daily. Some effective treatment options, albeit of variable efficacy, have been discovered. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an evidence-based methodology, to continuously check for new evidence, and to update recommendations accordingly. Here we provide guidelines on pharmaceutical treatment for COVID-19 based on the latest evidence.

13.
Infection and Chemotherapy ; : 395-403, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-890899

ABSTRACT

Neutralizing antibodies targeted at the receptor-binding domain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein have been developed and now under evaluation in clinical trials. The US Food and Drug Administration currently issued emergency use authorizations for neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in non-hospitalized patients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at high risk for progressing to severe disease and/or hospitalization. In terms of this situation, there is an urgent need to investigate the clinical aspects and to develop strategies to deploy them effectively in clinical practice. Here we provide guidance for the use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of COVID-19 based on the latest evidence.

14.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-875457

ABSTRACT

Background/Aims@#Human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55), an emerging epidemic strain, has caused several large outbreaks in the Korean military since 2014, and HAdV-associated acute respiratory illness (HAdV-ARI) has been continuously reported thereafter. @*Methods@#To evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics of HAdV-ARI in the Korean military, we analyzed respiratory virus polymerase chain reaction (RV-PCR) results, pneumonia surveillance results, and severe HAdV cases from all 14 Korean military hospitals from January 2013 to May 2018 and compared these data with nationwide RV surveillance data for the civilian population. @*Results@#A total of 14,630 RV-PCRs was performed at military hospitals. HAdV (45.4%) was the most frequently detected RV, followed by human rhinovirus (12.3%) and influenza virus (6.3%). The percentage of the military positive for HAdV was significantly greater than the percentage of civilians positive for HAdV throughout the study period, with a large outbreak occurring during the winter to spring of 2014 to 2015. The outbreak continued until the end of the study, and non-seasonal detections increased over time. The reported number of pneumonia patients also increased during the outbreak. Case fatality rate was 0.075% overall but 15.6% in patients with respiratory failure. The proportion of severe patients did not change significantly during the study period. @*Conclusions@#A large HAdV outbreak is currently ongoing in the Korean military, with a trend away from seasonality, and HAdV-55 is likely the predominant strain. Persistent efforts to control the outbreak, HAdV type-specific surveillance, and vaccine development are required.

15.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-785340

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: While there is an urgent need for diagnosis and therapeutic intervention in patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases (PIDs), current genetic tests have drawbacks. We retrospectively reviewed the usefulness of flow cytometry (FCM) as a quick tool for immunophenotyping and functional assays in patients suspected to have PIDs at a single tertiary care institute.METHODS: Between January 2001 and June 2018, patients suspected of having PIDs were subjected to FCM tests, including lymphocyte subset analysis, detection of surface- or intracellular-target proteins, and functional analysis of immune cells, at Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. The genetic diagnosis was performed using Sanger or diagnostic exome sequencing.RESULTS: Of 60 patients diagnosed with definite or probable PID according to the European Society of Immune Deficiencies criteria, 24 patients were provided with useful information about immunological dysfunction after initial FCM testing. In 10 patients, the PID diagnosis was based on abnormal findings in FCM testing without genetic tests. The FCM findings provided strong evidence for the diagnosis of severe combined immunodeficiency (n = 6), X-linked chronic granulomatous diseases (CGD) (n = 6), leukocyte adhesion deficiency type 1 (n = 3), X-linked agammaglobulinemia (n = 11), autoimmune lymphoproliferative syndrome-FASLG (n = 1), and familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis type 2 (n = 1), and probable evidence for autosomal recessive-CGD (n = 2), autosomal dominant-hyper-immunoglobulin E (IgE)-syndrome (n = 1), and STAT1 gain-of-function mutation (n = 1). In PIDs derived from PIK3CD (n = 2), LRBA (n = 2), and CTLA4 mutations (n = 3), the FCM test provided useful evidence of immune abnormalities and a tool for treatment monitoring.CONCLUSIONS: The initial application of FCM, particularly with known protein targets on immune cells, would facilitate the timely diagnosis of PIDs and thus would support clinical decisions and improve the clinical outcome.


Subject(s)
Agammaglobulinemia , Diagnosis , Exome , Flow Cytometry , Genetic Testing , Granulomatous Disease, Chronic , Humans , Immunophenotyping , Korea , Leukocytes , Lymphocyte Subsets , Lymphohistiocytosis, Hemophagocytic , Phenotype , Retrospective Studies , Seoul , Severe Combined Immunodeficiency , Tertiary Healthcare
16.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-762453

ABSTRACT

As 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA)-targeted sequencing can detect DNA from non-viable bacteria, it can be used to identify pathogens from clinical samples even in patients pretreated with antibiotics. We compared the results of 16S rRNA-targeted sequencing and culture for identifying bacterial species in normally sterile body fluid (NSBF): cerebrospinal, pericardial, peritoneal and pleural fluids. Over a 10-year period, a total of 312 NSBF samples were evaluated simultaneously using 16S rRNA-targeted sequencing and culture. Results were concordant in 287/312 (92.0%) samples, including 277 (88.8%) negative and 10 (3.2%) positive samples. Of the 16 sequencing-positive, culture-negative samples, eight showed clinically relevant isolates that included Fusobacterium nucleatum subsp. nucleatum, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Staphylococcus spp. All these samples were obtained from the patients pretreated with antibiotics. The diagnostic yield of 16S rRNA-targeted sequencing combined with culture was 11.2%, while that of culture alone was 6.1%. 16S rRNA-targeted sequencing in conjunction with culture could be useful for identifying bacteria in NSBF samples, especially when patients have been pretreated with antibiotics and when anaerobic infection is suspected.


Subject(s)
Anti-Bacterial Agents , Bacteria , Body Fluids , DNA , Fusobacterium nucleatum , Humans , RNA, Ribosomal, 16S , Staphylococcus , Streptococcus pneumoniae
17.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899727

ABSTRACT

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic persisting for a long time, there have been debates about the public health response strategies. We conducted a survey of adult infectious disease specialists on public health responses to COVID-19. Most responded that regulations on multi-use facilities should be maintained or strengthened, but schools should not be closed, except in cases where an outbreak occurs within the school. A slightly higher percentage of experts supported focused protection rather than sustained suppression. While the focused protection strategy might suffice in low-level epidemic situations, social distancing should be reinforced by shifting to a strategy closer to sustained suppression in the eventuality of rapid spread of outbreaks.

18.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-899692

ABSTRACT

Background@#Nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy is significantly important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. One of the interventions implemented by the government is a school closure. The Ministry of Education decided to postpone the school opening from March 2 to April 6 to minimize epidemic size. We aimed to quantify the school closure effect on the COVID-19 epidemic. @*Methods@#The potential effects of school opening were measured using a mathematical model considering two age groups: children (aged 19 years and younger) and adults (aged over 19). Based on susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, isolation and behavior-changed susceptible individuals are additionally considered. The transmission parameters were estimated from the laboratory confirmed data reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from February 16 to March 22. The model was extended with estimated parameters and estimated the expected number of confirmed cases as the transmission rate increased after school opening. @*Results@#Assuming the transmission rate between children group would be increasing 10 fold after the schools open, approximately additional 60 cases are expected to occur from March 2 to March 9, and approximately additional 100 children cases are expected from March 9 to March 23. After March 23, the number of expected cases for children is 28.4 for 7 days and 33.6 for 14 days. @*Conclusion@#The simulation results show that the government could reduce at least 200 cases, with two announcements by the Ministry of education. After March 23, although the possibility of massive transmission in the children's age group is lower, group transmission is possible to occur.

19.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-892023

ABSTRACT

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic persisting for a long time, there have been debates about the public health response strategies. We conducted a survey of adult infectious disease specialists on public health responses to COVID-19. Most responded that regulations on multi-use facilities should be maintained or strengthened, but schools should not be closed, except in cases where an outbreak occurs within the school. A slightly higher percentage of experts supported focused protection rather than sustained suppression. While the focused protection strategy might suffice in low-level epidemic situations, social distancing should be reinforced by shifting to a strategy closer to sustained suppression in the eventuality of rapid spread of outbreaks.

20.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-891988

ABSTRACT

Background@#Nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy is significantly important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. One of the interventions implemented by the government is a school closure. The Ministry of Education decided to postpone the school opening from March 2 to April 6 to minimize epidemic size. We aimed to quantify the school closure effect on the COVID-19 epidemic. @*Methods@#The potential effects of school opening were measured using a mathematical model considering two age groups: children (aged 19 years and younger) and adults (aged over 19). Based on susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, isolation and behavior-changed susceptible individuals are additionally considered. The transmission parameters were estimated from the laboratory confirmed data reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from February 16 to March 22. The model was extended with estimated parameters and estimated the expected number of confirmed cases as the transmission rate increased after school opening. @*Results@#Assuming the transmission rate between children group would be increasing 10 fold after the schools open, approximately additional 60 cases are expected to occur from March 2 to March 9, and approximately additional 100 children cases are expected from March 9 to March 23. After March 23, the number of expected cases for children is 28.4 for 7 days and 33.6 for 14 days. @*Conclusion@#The simulation results show that the government could reduce at least 200 cases, with two announcements by the Ministry of education. After March 23, although the possibility of massive transmission in the children's age group is lower, group transmission is possible to occur.

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