ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:With a gradually aging population,improving the ability to screen for the risk of death after arthroplasty and implementing timely personalized intervention programs for the increasing number of elderly patients with femoral neck fractures is key to improving the postoperative status of patients and prolonging survival expectations. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the risk factors for postoperative mortality in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures and to construct a nomogram predictive model to predict their mortality risk. METHODS:The study was conducted on 155 elderly patients(≥65 years old)who underwent arthroplasty for femoral neck fracture from January 2016 to January 2021,and 147 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed to collect clinical data that may affect the patients'postoperative mortality.Single-factor and multi-factor Cox regression analyses were successively used to screen independent risk factors associated with postoperative mortality.The column line graph model was constructed and validated using Rstudio software. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Age,frailty(age-adjusted Charlson comorbidities score),preoperative activity status,osteoporosis,and postoperative serum albumin level were five independent risk factors for postoperative mortality in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures(P<0.05).(2)The nomogram predictive model was constructed based on the results of multifactorial analysis,with a consistency index of 0.819(95%CI:0.771-0.868).Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under curve for 1-year and 3-year survival prediction was 0.8543 and 0.7263,respectively,indicating that the nomogram predictive model has good discriminatory and predictive power;calibration curve and decision curve analysis also showed good model discriminative power and clinical utility value.(3)The constructed nomogram predictive model has good diagnostic efficacy and accuracy,and can effectively assess the risk of postoperative death of patients.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:Arthroplasty is the primary treatment for displaced femoral neck fractures in the elderly,and the choice of total hip arthroplasty versus hemiarthroplasty is currently the subject of considerable debate. OBJECTIVE:To compare the mid-and long-term survival status of total hip arthroplasty versus hemiarthroplasty under a direct anterior approach for displaced femoral neck fractures in the elderly based on the propensity score matching method. METHODS:One hundred and forty-seven elderly patients(≥65 years of age)with displaced femoral neck fractures were admitted from January 2016 to January 2021,of whom 88 had total hip arthroplasty(total hip arthroplasty group)and 59 had artificial femoral head replacement(hemiarthroplasty group).For the patients'preoperative comorbidities,the age-corrected Charlson Comorbidity Scale was used to quantify the scores and calculate patient frailty.The propensity score matching method was used to match the two groups 1:1 and to compare the operation time,bleeding,postoperative hospitalization time,hospitalization cost,nutritional index,postoperative complications,and mortality between the two groups after matching.Postoperative survival time was determined by Kaplan-Meier Survival analysis. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)After propensity score matching,a total of 42 matched pairs were successful in both groups,and the preoperative data of patients in both groups were balanced and comparable after matching(P>0.05).(2)Compared with the hemiarthroplasty group,operation time(79.71 minutes vs.59.07 minutes,P<0.001),bleeding volume(839.64 mL vs.597.83 mL,P=0.001),and hospitalization cost(56 508.15 yuan vs.41 702.85 yuan,P<0.001)were significantly higher in the total hip arthroplasty group.However,the mortality rate was lower in the total hip arthroplasty group than in the hemiarthroplasty group(36%vs.57%,HR=0.44,95%CI:0.23-0.87,P=0.018),and the mean survival time was longer in the total hip arthroplasty group than in the hemiarthroplasty group(59.4 months vs.43.7 months,P=0.024).(3)There were no statistically significant differences in postoperative hospitalization time,preoperative and postoperative nutritional indicators,and overall postoperative complication rate between the two groups(P>0.05).However,in terms of postoperative pain,the incidence of pain was significantly higher in the hemiarthroplasty group than that in the total hip arthroplasty group(24%vs.7%,P=0.035).(4)Overall,total hip arthroplasty has a better prognosis for survival,while hemiarthroplasty is more appropriate for patients with poor physical fitness.At the same time,postoperative pain may largely affect the quality and survival time of patients after hip arthroplasty.