ABSTRACT
Objective:To research whether clinical outcomes of patients with sepsis can be improved by higher enteral nutritional support.Methods:A retrospective cohort method was applied. 145 patients with sepsis who were hospitalized in intensive care unit (ICU) of Peking University Third Hospital from September, 2015 to August, 2021 and met inclusion criteria as well as exclusion criteria were selected, including 79 males and 66 females, the median age was 68 (61, 73). Researchers evaluated whether there was correlation between improved modified nutrition risk in critically ill score (mNUTRIC), daily energy intake and protein supplement of patients and their clinical outcomes through Poisson log-linear regression analysis and Cox regression analysis.Results:The median of mNUTRIC score of 145 hospitalized patients was 6 (3, 10), wherein 70.3% of patients (102 cases) were in high-score group (≥ 5 scores) and 29.7% of patients (43 cases) were in low-score group (< 5 scores); the average of daily protein intake in ICU was about 0.62 (0.43, 0.79) g·kg -1·d -1, and the average of daily energy intake was about 64.4 (48.1, 86.2) kJ·kg -1·d -1. As shown by Cox regression analysis, increase of mNUTRIC score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) were correlated to growth of in-hospital mortality [hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.08-1.16, P = 0.006; HR = 1.04, 95% CI was 1.01-1.08, P = 0.030; HR = 1.08, 95% CI was 1.03-1.13, P = 0.023]. Higher average daily intake of protein and energy as well as lower mNUTRIC, SOFA, and APACHE Ⅱ scores were also significantly correlated to lower 30-day mortality ( HR = 0.45, 95% CI was 0.25-0.65, P < 0.001; HR = 0.77, 95% CI was 0.61-0.93, P < 0.001; HR = 1.10, 95% CI was 1.07-1.13, P < 0.001; HR = 1.07, 95% CI was 1.02-1.13, P = 0.041; HR = 1.15, 95% CI was 1.05-1.23, P = 0.014); however, there was no significant correlation between gender as well as number of complications and in-hospital mortality. Within 30 days of attack of sepsis, the average daily intake of protein and energy were not correlated to days of non-ventilator ( HR = 0.66, 95% CI was 0.59-0.74, P = 0.066; HR = 0.78, 95% CI was 0.63-0.93, P = 0.073). Increase of patients' average daily intake of protein and energy were significantly correlated to a lower in-hospital mortality ( HR = 0.41, 95% CI was 0.32-0.50, P < 0.001; HR = 0.87, 95% CI was 0.84-0.92, P < 0.001), shorter ICU stay ( HR = 0.46, 95% CI was 0.39-0.53, P < 0.001; HR = 0.82, 95% CI was 0.78-0.86, P < 0.001), and hospital stay ( HR = 0.51, 95% CI was 0.44-0.58, P < 0.001; HR = 0.77, 95% CI was 0.68-0.88, P < 0.001). According to correlation analysis, among patients with mNUTRIC score ≥ 5, increasing daily intake of protein and energy can reduce in-hospital mortality ( HR = 0.44, 95% CI was 0.32-0.58, P < 0.001; HR = 0.73, 95% CI was 0.69-0.77, P < 0.001), and 30-day mortality ( HR = 0.51, 95% CI was 0.37-0.65, P < 0.001; HR = 0.90, 95% CI was 0.85-0.96, P < 0.001); the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) further confirmed that higher protein intake had good predictive value for inpatient mortality area under the curve (AUC) = 0.96 and 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.94); higher emergy intake had good predictive value for inpatient mortality (AUC = 0.87) and 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.83). By contrast, among patients with mNUTRIC score < 5, it is only discovered that increasing daily intake of protein and energy can reduce 30-day mortality of patients ( HR = 0.76, 95% CI was 0.69-0.83, P < 0.001). Conclusions:The increase of average daily intake of protein and energy for patients with sepsis is significantly correlated to reduction of in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality, shorter ICU stay, and hospital stay. The correlation is more significant in patients with high mNUTRIC score, and higher intake of protein and energy can bring down in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality. As for patients with low mNUTRIC score, nutritional support cannot improve prognosis of the patients significantly.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To explore the risk factors for 30-day death in emergency department patients, and then construct a prediction model and validate it using nomogram.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinical data of 1 091 patients admitted to the emergency department of the First People's Hospital of Changde from January 1 to June 30, 2021 was collected, including 741 patients from January 1 to March 31 in the development group and 350 patients from April 1 to June 30 in the validation group. General information, first vital signs admitted to the emergency department, and laboratory results were collected, the modified early warning score (MEWS) was calculated, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the risk factors of 30-day death. According to the results of multivariate analysis, the nomogram was used to construct a 30-day death prediction model. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the consistency of the prediction model, the calibration of the prediction model was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.Results:A total of 1 091 patients were enrolled. There were 741 patients in the development group, including 356 males and 385 females, aged (51.42±17.33) years old, and the 30-day mortality was 28.88%. There were 350 patients in the validation group, including 188 males and 162 females, aged (52.88±16.11) years old, and the 30-day mortality was 24.00%. The results of the univariate analysis showed that age, primary diagnosis on admission, consciousness, respiratory rate (RR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), pulse oxygen saturation (SpO 2), MEWS score, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT) and body mass index (BMI) might be the risk factors for 30-day death in patients in the emergency department. The results of the multivariate analysis showed that the MEWS score [odds ratio ( OR) = 14.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.46-138.12], ESR ( OR = 46.71, 95% CI was 20.48-106.53), PCT ( OR = 4.97, 95% CI was 2.46-10.02), BMI (24.0-27.9 kg/m 2: OR = 37.82, 95% CI was 14.69-97.36; ≥28.0 kg/m 2: OR = 62.11, 95% CI was 25.77-149.72) were independent risk factors for 30-day death in the emergency department (all P < 0.05). Using the four variables with the results of multivariate analysis to construct a nomogram prediction model, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.974 (95% CI was 0.753-0.983) for the development group, and the AUC was 0.963 (95% CI was 0.740-0.975) for the validation group. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no statistically significant difference between the predicted outcome of the nomogram prediction model and the actual occurrence ( χ2 = 1.216, P = 1.270). Conclusion:The prediction model developed by the MEWS score combined with BMI, ESR and PCT can scientifically and effectively predict the 30-day outcome of emergency department patients.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the correlation of monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR) with the prognosis and adverse event in critically ill patients.Methods:Basic information of patients were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅲ (MIMIC-Ⅲ), including demographics, blood routine, biochemical indexes, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score (SIRS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and outcome, etc. MLR on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission was calculated. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was applied to evaluate the prognostic value of MLR on the 30-day mortality and its cut-off value. According to the cut-off value, the patients were divided into two groups, and the differences between the groups were compared. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship of MLR with 30-day mortality, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), mechanical ventilation, the length of ICU stay, and total hospitalization time.Results:① A total of 43 174 critically ill patients were included. ROC curve showed that area under ROC curve (AUC) of MLR in predicting 30-day mortality was 0.655 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.632-0.687]. The cut-off value of MLR calculated according to the maximum Yoden index was 0.5. There were 16 948 patients with MLR ≥ 0.5 (high MLR group) and 26 226 patients with MLR < 0.5 (low MLR group). ② Compared with the low MLR group, the high MLR group had higher age, proportion of male, body mass index (BMI) [age (years old): 66.0 (51.7, 78.4) vs. 57.6 (27.1, 74.6), proportion of male: 57.2% vs. 52.5%, BMI (kg/m 2): 26.5 (22.5, 31.1) vs. 24.7 (14.3, 29.7)]. The high MLR group also had higher incidence of complications (hypertension: 49.2% vs. 44.6%, chronic heart failure: 32.6% vs. 21.7%, diabetes mellitus: 27.0% vs. 23.4%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 21.5% vs. 16.1%, renal insufficiency: 19.3% vs. 13.1%), and higher white blood cell count (WBC), blood glucose, lactate (Lac), serum creatinine (SCr), SIRS score and SOFA score [WBC (×10 9/L): 13.8 (9.6, 19.2) vs. 11.5 (8.4, 15.6), blood glucose (mmol/L): 8.66 (6.88, 11.49) vs. 8.27 (6.55, 10.88), Lac (mmol/L): 2.2 (1.5, 3.7) vs. 2.1 (1.4, 3.3), SCr (μmol/L): 106.1 (70.7, 176.8) vs. 88.4 (70.7, 132.6), SIRS score: 3 (2, 4) vs. 2 (2, 3), SOFA score: 4 (2, 7) vs. 3 (1, 5)]. The 30-day mortality, and the proportion of patients with length of ICU stay > 5 days, total hospitalization time > 14 days, CRRT and mechanical ventilation > 5 days were significantly higher in high MLR group (30-day mortality: 20.0% vs. 8.3%, length of ICU stay > 5 days: 33.2% vs. 20.4%, total hospitalization time > 14 days: 33.7% vs. 16.2%, CRRT: 3.6% vs. 0.7%, mechanical ventilation > 5 days: 18.4% vs. 5.7%), with statistically significant differences (all P < 0.05). ③ After adjusted with the related factors, multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that elevated MLR was an independent risk factor for increased 30-day mortality [odd ratio ( OR) = 1.54, 95% CI was 1.37-1.72, P < 0.001]. Moreover, the increased MLR was independently associated with the increased risk of usage of CRRT ( OR = 2.77, 95% CI was 2.18-3.51), mechanical ventilation > 5 days ( OR = 2.45, 95% CI was 2.21-2.72), the length of ICU stay > 5 days ( OR = 2.29, 95% CI was 2.10-2.49), and total hospitalization time > 14 days ( OR = 2.28, 95% CI was 2.08-2.49), all P < 0.001. Conclusions:Retrospective analysis of large sample shows that MLR elevation is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, usage of CRRT, prolonged mechanical ventilation time, prolonged hospitalization, prolonged length of ICU stay. MLR can be used for risk stratification of severe patients.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To establish a nomogram prediction model for the prognosis of patients with septic cardiomyopathy (SCM) based on afterload-corrected cardiac performance (ACP), in order to identify septic patients with poor outcomes and treatment.Methods:The data of patients admitted to the department of critical medicine of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from June 2016 to June 2019 were analyzed. All patients were monitored by pulse indication continuous cardiac output (PiCCO) monitor more than 24 hours and diagnosed as SCM with ACP less than 80%. The predictors of 30-day death risk of SCM patients were screened by univariate Cox regression analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to establish the prediction model for 30-day death risk of SCM patients, which was displayed by the nomogram. Finally, the discrimination and calibration of the model were analyzed by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) and consistency index (C-index).Results:A total of 102 patients with SCM were included and the 30-day mortality was 60.8% (62 cases). Among 102 patients with SCM, 57 patients (55.9%) had mild impairment of cardiac function (60%≤ACP < 80%), and the 30-day mortality was 43.9% (25/57); 39 patients (38.2%) had moderate impairment of cardiac function (40%≤ACP < 60%), and the 30-day mortality was 79.5% (31/39); 6 patients (5.9%) had severe impairment of cardiac function (ACP < 40%), and the 30-day mortality was 100% (6/6). There was significantly difference in mortality among the three groups (χ 2 = 24.156, P < 0.001). The potential risk factors for 30-day death of SCM patients screened by univariate Cox regression analysis were included in multivariate Cox regression analysis. The results showed that the independent risk factors for 30-day death of SCM patients were acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ [APACHEⅡ, risk ratio ( HR) = 1.031, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.002-1.061, P = 0.039], vasoactive inotropic score (VIS, HR = 1.003, 95% CI was 1.001-1.005, P = 0.012), continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT; HR = 2.106, 95% CI was 1.089-4.072, P = 0.027), and ACP ( HR = 0.952, 95% CI was 0.928-0.977, P < 0.001). The nomogram model was established based on the above independent risk factors and age, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.865 (95% CI was 0.795-0.935), P < 0.001; C-index was 0.797 (95% CI was 0.747-0.847), P > 0.05. Conclusions:The nomogram model based on age, APACHEⅡ score, VIS score, CRRT and ACP has a certain clinical reference significance for the prediction of 30-day mortality of SCM patients. The discrimination and calibration are good, however, further verification is needed.
ABSTRACT
@#Introduction: This study aims to report on clinical outcomes and 30-day mortality of patients with neck of femur fracture during COVID-19 pandemic and compare the outcomes in a cohort during the same period prior to the pandemic. Materials and methods: The study included 66 patients with hip fracture over the age of 60 years, presented between 1st March and 15th May 2020 and matched with the patients with hip fractures (75 patients) managed during the corresponding period in 2019 as control. Data was collected on demographics, comorbidities, COVID-19 status, procedures and mortality and complications. Results: Thirty-day mortality following hip surgery was 13.6% during COVID-19 pandemic with all the mortalities in patients with ASA Grade 3 and 4. Mortality was considerably high for intracapsular fracture (20%) but highest in cemented hemiarthroplasty (20%). One third of the hip fractures operated in COVID-19 designated theatre died within 30 days of surgery. Thirty-day mortality rate for COVID-19 positive hip fracture patients were 55.5%. There has been higher 30-day mortality for hip surgeries during COVID-19 pandemic with positive correlation between patient’s COVID-19 test status and 30-day mortality following hip surgeries. Conclusion: There is strong association between 30-day mortality and the designated theatre (Clean/COVID) where the patients were operated on with higher mortality for intracapsular neck of femur fractures with significant mortality associated with cemented hemiarthroplasty particularly among symptomatic or COVID-19 positive patients. Therefore, adoption of a multidisciplinary approach is recommended to optimally balance the risk-benefit ratio for planning of management of hip fractures while considering patient’s peri-operative outcomes.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES@#In recent years, it has been reported that the anti-shock effect of plasma substitutes in adult patients with major burn in shock stage is not good. However, due to the shortage of clinical frozen plasma supply, it is impossible to guarantee that frozen plasma is used as colloidal solution for anti-shock treatment. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of the infusion ration between frozen plasma and plasma substitutes on the prognosis of adult patients with major burn in shock stage.@*METHODS@#This study enrolled 586 adult patients with major burn by selecting the hospitalization burn patients, who had been hospitalized at the Jiangxi province burn center from September 2014 to April 2019. The patients with the infusion ratio of frozen plasma to plasma substitutes ≥2꞉1 at 48 hours after admission were included in the experimental group, otherwise they were included in the control group. The basic clinical data and clinical prognosis indicator in the 2 groups were compared. Logistic univariate regression analysis was used to screen the influential factors of 30-day mortality in adult patients with major burn, and logistic multivariate regression analysis was used to obtain independent risk and protective factors; Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve of the 2 groups, and log-rank test was used to compare the 30-day survival rate of the 2 groups.@*RESULTS@#There were significant differences in the infusion volume of frozen plasma and plasma substitutes between the 2 groups at 48 hours after admission (both @*CONCLUSIONS@#Infusion ration between frozen plasma to plasma substitutes at 48 hours after admission is an independent protective factor for 30-day mortality of adult patients with major burn. In the early stage of adult patients with major burn, frozen plasma should be used as the anti-shock therapy as far as possible (frozen plasma꞉plasma substitute ≥2꞉1) to improve the prognosis and reduce the of 30-day mortality.
Subject(s)
Adult , Humans , Hospitalization , Plasma Substitutes , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , ShockABSTRACT
Background: The female gender is considered as a risk factor for morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Aim: In this analysis, we assessed the impact of female gender on early outcome after CABG. Study Design: This is a retrospective analysis of data from our center situated in South India. Statistical Analysis: Patients were categorized according to gender and potential differences in pre-operative and post-operative factors were explored. Significant risk factors were then built in a multivariate model to account for differences in predicting gender influence on surgical outcome. Methods: 773 consecutive patients underwent first time CABG between January 2015 and December 2016. 96.77% of cases were performed using off-pump technique. 132 (17.07%) patients were females. These patients formed the study group. Results: The in-house/ 30-day mortality in females was similar to that of males (3.03% vs. 3.12%, p value 0.957). Mediastinitis developed more commonly in females (5.35% vs. 1.30%; p value 0.004) compared to males. There were more re-admissions to hospital for female patients (21.37% in females vs. 10.14% in males, p value <0.001). In multivariate analysis using logistic regression; there was a significant association between age (OR 1.08), chronic obstructive airway disease (OR 4.315), and use of therapeutic antibiotics (OR 6.299), IABP usage (OR 11.18) and renal failure requiring dialysis (OR 28.939) with mortality. Conclusions: Early mortality in females was similar to that of males. Females were associated with higher rate of wound infection and readmission to hospital.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and the soluble isoform of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) are useful prognostic biomarkers in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of this study was to test the short term prognostic value of sST2 compared with hs-cTnI in patients with chest pain. METHODS: Assays for hs-cTnI and sST2 were performed in 157 patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) for chest pain at arrival. In-hospital and 30-day follow-up mortalities were assessed. RESULTS: The incidence of ACS was 37%; 33 patients were diagnosed with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and 25 were diagnosed with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Compared with the no acute coronary syndrome (NO ACS) group, the median level of hs-cTnI was higher in ACS patients: 7.22 (5.24-14) pg/mL vs 68 (15.33-163.50) pg/mL (P35 ng/mL at ED arrival died during the 30-day follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: sST2 has a greater prognostic value for 30-day cardiac mortality after discharge in patients presenting to the ED for chest pain compared with hs-cTnI. In STEMI patients, an sST2 value >35 ng/mL at ED arrival showed the highest predictive power for short-term mortality.
Subject(s)
Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Acute Coronary Syndrome/diagnosis , Area Under Curve , Biomarkers/analysis , Chest Pain , Emergency Service, Hospital , Follow-Up Studies , Interleukin-1 Receptor-Like 1 Protein/analysis , Odds Ratio , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Troponin I/analysisABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the risk factors of 30-day mortality in patients with malignant hilar obstruction (MHO) after percutaneous transhepatic biliary metal stent deployment. Methods One hundred and fifty-nine consecutive patients with MHO caused by cholangiocarcinoma or gallbladder carcinoma were enrolled in this study. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent (PTBS) implantation was carried out in all the patients. Independent predictors for 30-day mortality were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. Covariates that were incorporated into the multivariate analysis were the variables that reached statistical significance (P < 0.1) in univariate analysis. Two-tailed, P value of less than 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results The 30-day mortality of patient with MHO after metal stent deployment was 9.4%. Univariate analysis indicated that the differences in WBC (OR = 1.224.95%CI [1.07 - 1.44], P < 0.01), INR (OR=78.75, 95%CI [5.02-1 235.70], P<0.01), PT(OR=1.55, 95%CI [1.18-2.04], P<0.01), BUN (OR=1.19, 95%CI [1.02- 1.38], P < 0.05), CRE(OR = 1.02, 95%CI [1.000 - 1.041], P < 0.1) and lymph nodes metastasis(OR = 0.334. 95%CI[0.105 - 1.131], P < 0.1) were statistically significantly between 30-day mortality group and non-30-day mortality group. Multivariate analysis showed that statistically significant differences in WBC (OR = 1.19, 95%CI[1.026 - 1.380], P < 0.05), INR(OR = 151.5, 95%CI [3.13 - 5 440.7], P < 0.05) and CRE (OR = 1.025, 95%CI [1.002 - 1.048], P < 0.05) also existed palliative treatment for patients with malignant hilar obstruction. Active preoperative measures to improve hepatic and renal functions as well as to control infection are necessary in order to reduce 30-day mortality.