Value of platelet-albumin-bilirubin index combined with AIMS65 score in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding / 临床肝胆病杂志

ObjectiveTo investigate the value of platelet-albumin-bilirubin index （PALBI） combined with AIMS65 score in predicting rebleeding and death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding （AUGIB）. MethodsA retrospective study was conducted for 238 patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from February 2021 to October 2022， and all patients were followed up for 6 weeks. According to the prognosis， they were divided into death group with 65 patients and survival group with 173 patients， and according to the presence or absence of rebleeding， they were divided into non-rebleeding group with 149 patients and rebleeding group with 89 patients. General data and laboratory markers （including blood routine， liver/renal function， and coagulation）， and PALBI， AIMS65 score， Child-Turcotte-Pugh （CTP） score， and Model for End-stage Liver Disease （MELD） score were calculated on admission. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A multivariate logistic regression model analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for death or rebleeding within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to investigate the predictive efficacy of each scoring system， and the DeLong test was used for comparison of AUC. ResultsThere were significant differences between the death group and the survival group in hematemesis， past history of varices， albumin （Alb）， total bilirubin （TBil）， international normalized ratio （INR）， creatinine （Cr）， prothrombin time （PT）， systolic blood pressure， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis （odds ratio ［OR］=4.34， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.88‍ ‍—‍ ‍10.05， P<0.001）， past history of varices （OR=3.51， 95%CI： 1.37‍ ‍—‍ ‍8.98， P=0.009）， PALBI （OR=4.49， 95%CI： 1.48‍ ‍—‍ ‍13.64， P=0.008）， and AIMS65 score （OR=3.85， 95%CI： 2.35‍ ‍—‍ ‍6.30， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for death. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting survival showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.758， 0.798， 0.789， 0.870， and 0.888， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had a significantly larger AUC than the four scoring systems used alone （all P<0.05）. There were significant differences between the rebleeding group and the non-rebleeding group in hematemesis， history of diabetes， Alb， TBil， INR， Cr， PT， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PALBI （OR=2.41， 95%CI： 1.17‍ ‍—‍ ‍4.95， P=0.017） and AIMS65 score （OR=1.58， 95%CI： 1.17‍ ‍—‍ ‍2.15， P=0.003） were independent risk factors for rebleeding. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting rebleeding showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.680， 0.719， 0.709， 0.711， and 0.741， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had the largest AUC （all P<0.05）， but with a relatively low specificity. ConclusionPALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a certain value in predicting death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB， with a better value than CTP score and MELD score alone. PALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a relatively low value in predicting rebleeding within 6 weeks， with an acceptable accuracy.

The effect of the shock index and scoring systems for predicting mortality among geriatric patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is an important cause of mortality and morbidity among geriatric patients. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the shock index and other scoring systems are effective predictors of mortality and prognosis among geriatric patients presenting to the emergency department with complaints of upper GI bleeding. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study in an emergency department in Bursa, Turkey. METHODS: Patients over 65 years admitted to a single-center, tertiary emergency service between May 8, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and diagnosed with upper GI bleeding were analyzed. 30, 180 and 360-day mortality prediction performances of the shock index and the Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS-65 scores were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 111 patients who met the criteria were included in the study. The shock index (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of the patients who died within the 30-day period were found to be significantly different, while the shock index (P < 0.001), Rockall score (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of patients who died within the 180-day and 360-day periods were statistically different. In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for predicting 360-day mortality, the area under the curve (AUC) value was found to be 0.988 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.971-1.000; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The shock index measured among geriatric patients with upper GI bleeding at admission seems to be a more effective predictor of prognosis than other scoring systems.

Comparação dos escores não endoscópicos para a previsão de resultados em doentes com sangramento gastrointestinal alto na emergência de um hospital de referência em cuidados terciários: um estudo de coorte prospectivo / Comparison of non-endoscopic scores for the prediction of outcomes in patients of upper gastrointestinal bleed in an emergency of a tertiary care referral hospital: a prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Traditionally peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed but with the changing epidemiology; other etiologies of UGI bleed are emerging. Many scores have been described for predicting outcomes and the need for intervention in UGI bleed but prospective comparison among them is scarce. OBJECTIVE: This study was planned to determine the etiological pattern of UGI bleed and to compare Glasgow Blatchford score, Pre-Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors of outcome. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study 268 patients of UGI bleed were enrolled and followed up for 8 weeks. Glasgow Blatchford score, Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and MEWS were calculated for each patient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve for each score was compared. RESULTS: The most common etiology for UGI bleed were gastroesophageal varices 150 (63.55%) followed by peptic ulcer disease 29 (12.28%) and mucosal erosive disease 27 (11.44%). Total 38 (15.26%) patients had re-bleed and 71 (28.5%) patients died. Overall, 126 (47%) patients required blood component transfusion, 25 (9.3%) patients required mechanical ventilation and 2 (0.74%) patients required surgical intervention. Glasgow Blatchford score was the best in predicting the need for transfusion (cut off - 10, AUC-ROC= 0.678). Whereas AIMS65 with a score of ≥2 was best in predicting re-bleed (AUC-ROC=0.626) and mortality (AUC-ROC=0.725). CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal bleed was most commonly of variceal origin at our tertiary referral center in Northern India. AIMS65 was the best & simplest score with a score of ≥2 for predicting re-bleed and mortality.

RESUMO CONTEXTO: Tradicionalmente, a doença úlcera péptica era a causa mais comum de sangramento digestivo alto, mas com a mudança da epidemiologia, outras etiologias do sangramento do trato digestivo alto estão emergindo. Muitas pontuações têm sido descritas para prever resultados e a necessidade de intervenção na hemorragia gastrointestinal superior, mas a comparação prospectiva entre elas é escassa. OBJETIVO: Este estudo foi planeado para determinar o padrão etiológico de pacientes com hemorragia digestiva alta e comparar os escores de Glasgow Blatchford, o Rockall pré-endoscopia, o AIMS65 e o Early Warning modificado (MEWS) como preditores do resultado. MÉTODOS: Neste estudo prospetivo de coorte, 268 pacientes com sangramento digestivo alto foram acompanhados durante 8 semanas. Os escores Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall pré-endoscopia, AIMS65 e MEWS foram calculados para cada paciente, e a área sob a curva (AUC-ROC) para cada pontuação foi comparada. RESULTADOS: A etiologia mais comum para a hemorragia gastrointestinal alta foi varizes gastroesofágicas 150 (63,55%), seguida de úlcera péptica 29 (12,28%) e de doença erosiva de mucosa 27 (11,44%). No total, 38 (15,26%) doentes voltaram a sangrar e 71 (28,5%) doentes morreram. No total, 126 (47%) doentes necessitaram de transfusão de componentes sanguíneos, 25 (9,3%) necessitaram de ventilação mecânica e 2 (0,74%) destes doentes necessitaram de intervenção cirúrgica. O escore de Glasgow Blatchford foi o melhor na previsão da necessidade de transfusão (corte - 10, AUC-ROC =0,678). Enquanto o AIMS65 com uma pontuação de ≥2 foi o melhor na previsão de ressangramento (AUC-ROC =0,626) e mortalidade (AUC-ROC =0,725). CONCLUSÃO: O sangramento gastrointestinal alto mais comum é de origem varicosa em centro de referência terciária. O AIMS65 é o melhor escore simples, com uma pontuação de ≥2 para prever o ressangramento e a mortalidade.

A Comparative Study of AIMS 65 Score with other Scoring Systems to Predict Outcomes in Patients with Upper GI Bleed in Chronic Liver Disease

Introduction: The AIMS 65 score is a new bedside scoreproposed for the assessment of liver function which issimple and more independent. Different scores have beenrecommended to predict outcomes in the setting of uppergastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), limited comparative studieshave been published between simplified versions of olderscores and recent scores. In this present study, we aimed toretrospectively compare the performance of AIMS 65 scorewith Child-Pugh score, MELD score and ALBI score forpredicting the outcome in patients with upper GI bleed inchronic liver disease.Material and Methods: Data of patients with chronic Liverdisease secondary to ethanol were retrospectively reviewed.Child Pugh score, MELD score, ALBI score and AIMS 65score were calculated for the patients and results . ROC curvesderived from comparison with outcome and were analysed.Results: In our study conducted on 112 patients, the agedistribution was between 20-85 years with mean age ofpatients being 46.47 ± 10.9 years, sex ratio Male: Female:105:7 with mortality rate of 33.92%. The Area under curves ofROC of AIMS65, Child Pugh score, MELD score, ALBI scorewas 0.779, 0.864, 0.763 and 0.777 respectively.Conclusion: AIMS 65 is a simple and non-endoscopic scorefor the prediction of in hospital mortality. No statisticaldifference was observed between AIMS-65 and other scoressuch as Child Pugh score, ALBI and MELD score.

Comparison of prediction of outcomes in upper GI bleed using non-endoscopic scoring systems

Background: Several scoring systems have been designed for risk stratification and prediction of outcomes in upper GI bleed. Endoscopy plays a major role in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of UGIB patients. However not all patients with UGIB need endoscopy. The objective of the present study was compared the prediction of mortality using different scoring systems in patients with upper GI bleed. A decision tool with a high sensitivity would be able to identify high and low risk patients and for judicious utilization of available resources.Methods: 100 patients were assessed with respect to their clinical parameters, organ dysfunction, pertinent laboratory parameters and five risk assessment scores i.e. clinical Rockall, Glasgow Blatchford, ALBI, PALBI and AIMS65 were calculated.Results: For prediction of outcomes, AIMS65 was superior to the others (AUROC of 0.889), followed by the GBS (AUROC of 0.869), followed by clinical Rockall score (AUROC 0.815), followed by ALBI score (AUROC of 0.765), followed by PALBI score (AUROC of 0.714) all values being statistically significant.Conclusions: The AIMS65 score is best in predicting the mortality in patients with upper GI bleed. The optimum cut off being >2. Though GBS may be better in predicting the need for intervention, it is inferior in predicting the mortality. The newer scores like ALBI and PALBI are inferior to AIMS65 and GBS in predicting mortality.

The values of Rockall, Blatchford and AIMS65 scoring systems in the diagnosis and treatment of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding / 天津医药

prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). Methods A total of 130 patients with AUGIB in our hospital were enrolled in this study from August 2014 to August 2016 . Three kinds of scoring systems including Rockall, Blatchford and AIMS65 were used to evaluate the risk classification of the patients. Patients were followed up for 2 months. The incidence rates of re-bleeding and death within 2 months after admission were observed. Data of prognosis in patients with AUGIB were compared between the three scoring systems in the prognosis of patients with AUGIB, including the risk classification and the prediction accuracy of re-bleeding and death. Results There were no significant differences in the re-bleeding rate and fatality rate between the groups divided by Rockall and Blatchford scoring systems ( P>0.05). According to the grouping results of AIMS65 scoring system, the re-bleeding rate of low-risk group was lower than that in high risk group (1.45%vs. 13.11%, P=0.01), but there was no significant difference in fatality rate between the two groups (P>0.05). The values of area under the curve (AUC) of predicting re-bleeding rates by using Rockall, Blatchford and AIMS65 scoring systems were 0.6258, 0.6910, and 0.7241, and the values of AUC of predicting fatality rates were 0.7031, 0.7969, and 0.7031 by using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. There were no significant differences between them (P>0.05). The values of AUC of predicting re-bleeding rates by using the risk grading calculation by Rockall, Blatchford and AIMS65 scoring systems were 0.6189, 0.6139 and 0.7254 (P>0.05). But the values of AUC of predicting fatality rates were 0.6211, 0.6641 and 0.7695 (P<0.01). Conclusion The operation method of AIMS65 scoring system is simple and convenient, which is applicable to a wide range of patients with AUGIB. In the prediction of re-bleeding and mortality, AIMS65 scoring system has high accuracy and stability, which is worthy of promoting in clinical application.

Lactate Parameters Predict Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

The predictive role of lactate in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) has been suggested. This study evaluated several lactate parameters in terms of predicting outcomes of bleeding patients and sought to establish a new scoring model by combining lactate parameters and the AIMS65 score. A total of 114 patients with NVUGIB who underwent serum lactate level testing at least twice and endoscopic hemostasis within 24 hours after admission were retrospectively analyzed. The associations between five lactate parameters and clinical outcomes were evaluated and the predictive power of lactate parameter combined AIMS65s (L-AIMS65s) and AIMS56 scoring was compared. The most common cause of bleeding was gastric ulcer (48.2%). Lactate clearance rate (LCR) was associated with 30-day rebleeding (odds ratio [OR], 0.931; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.872–0.994; P = 0.033). Initial lactate (OR, 1.313; 95% CI, 1.050–1.643; P = 0.017), maximal lactate (OR, 1.277; 95% CI, 1.037–1.573; P = 0.021), and average lactate (OR, 1.535; 95% CI, 1.137–2.072; P = 0.005) levels were associated with 30-day mortality. Initial lactate (OR, 1.213; 95% CI, 1.027–1.432; P = 0.023), maximal lactate (OR, 1.271; 95% CI, 1.074–1.504; P = 0.005), and average lactate (OR, 1.501; 95% CI, 1.150–1.959; P = 0.003) levels were associated with admission over 7 days. Although L-AIMS65s showed the highest area under the curve for prediction of each outcome, differences between L-AIMS65s and AIMS65 did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, lactate parameters have a prognostic role in patients with NVUGIB. However, they do not increase the predictive power of AIMS65 when combined.

Comparison of AIMS65 Score and Other Scoring Systems for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Koreans with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The AIMS65 score has not been sufficiently validated in Korea. The objective of this study was to compare the AIMS65 and other scoring systems for the prediction of various clinical outcomes in Korean patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). METHODS: The AIMS65 score, clinical and full Rockall scores (cRS and fRS) and Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score were calculated in patients with NVUGIB in a single center retrospectively. The performance of these scores for predicting mortality, rebleeding, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Of the 523 patients, 3.4% died within 30 days, 2.5% experienced rebleeding, 40.0% required endoscopic intervention, and 75.7% needed transfusion. The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and for transfusion. The fRS was superior to the AIMS65, GBS, and cRS for predicting endoscopic intervention and the GBS was superior to the AIMS65, fRS, and cRS for predicting the transfusion requirement. CONCLUSIONS: The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention in Korean patients with acute NVUGIB. However, it was inferior to the GBS and fRS for predicting the transfusion requirement and endoscopic intervention, respectively.

Clinical Application of AIMS65 Scores to Predict Outcomes in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To evaluate the ability of the recently proposed albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), mental status, systolic blood pressure, age >65 years (AIMS65) score to predict mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). METHODS: AIMS65 scores were calculated in 251 consecutive patients presenting with acute UGIB by allotting 1 point each for albumin level 1.5, alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure or =65 years. Risk stratification was done during the initial 12 hours of hospital admission. RESULTS: Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, endoscopic therapy, or surgery were required in 51 patients (20.3%), 64 (25.5%), and 12 (4.8%), respectively. The predictive accuracy of AIMS65 scores > or =2 was high for blood transfusion (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.59), ICU admission (AUROC, 0.61), and mortality (AUROC, 0.74). The overall mortality was 10.3% (n=26), and was 3%, 7.8%, 20%, 36%, and 40% for AIMS65 scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively; these values were significantly higher in those with scores > or =2 (30.9%) than in those with scores or =2 predict high in-hospital mortality.