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Objective To investigate the predictive value of serum soluble tumor necrosis factor-like weak inducer of apoptosis(sTWEAK)and Netrin-1 combined with acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHE Ⅱ)score for poor prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury after surgery.Methods Totally 120 patients with severe craniocerebral injury admitted to a hospital from June 2020 to June 2022 were divided into good prognosis group and poor prognosis group according to the prognosis 30 days af-ter surgery.The serum levels of sTWEAK,Netrin-1 and APACHE Ⅱ score were compared between the two groups.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of poor prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury,and the prediction model of serum sTWEAK,Netrin-1 and APACHE Ⅱ score combined was constructed.The predictive value of serum sTWEAK,Netrin-1 level and APACHE Ⅱ score in patients with severe craniocerebral injury after surgery was analyzed by receiver operat-ing characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The duration of intensive care unit stay in the poor prognosis group was longer than that in the good prognosis group,and the albumin level,Glasgow Coma scale and serum Ne-trin-1 level at admission were lower than those in the good prognosis group.The proportion of multiple brain contusion and laceration,the proportion of mechanical ventilation,APACHE Ⅱ score at admission and the lev-els of serum sTWEAK,blood creatinine and blood urea nitrogen were higher than those in the group with good prognosis,and the differences were statistically significant(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that multiple brain contusion and laceration,decreased Netrin-1 level,increased APACHE Ⅱscore and increased sTWEAK level at admission were risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury(P＜0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve and 95％CI of ser-um sTWEAK,Netrin-1 and APACHE Ⅱ scores were 0.742(0.552-0.925),0.731(0.488-0.963),0.714(0.502-0.911)and 0.882(0.795-0.947)respectively when the three indexes were used alone and in com-bination.Conclusion Serum sTWEAK and Netrin-1 combined with APACHE Ⅱ score have good predictive value for the poor prognosis of patients with severe craniocerebral injury after surgery,and can provide refer-ence for the formulation of clinical treatment.
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Objective:To explore the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score on predicting prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis.Methods:A retrospective cohort study, patients with sepsis who admitted to the department of emergency and the department of geriatric medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from March 2020 to June 2021 were enrolled. Patients' demographics, routine laboratory examinations, APACHE Ⅱ score that within 24 hours of admission were obtained from their electronic medical records. The prognosis during the hospitalization and one year after discharge were collected, retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors were performed. And Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to examine overall survival.Results:A total of 116 elderly patients met inclusion criteria, 55 were alive and 61 were died. On univariate analysis, clinical variables such as lactic acid [Lac, hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.07-1.26, P < 0.001], PCT ( HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 1.01-1.04, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase (ALT, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.143), aspartate aminotransferase (AST, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.01, P = 0.014), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P < 0.001), hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.001), creatine kinase (CK, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.002), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB, HR = 1.01, 95% CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001), Na ( HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.183), blood urea nitrogen (BUN, HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.139), fibrinogen (FIB, HR = 0.85, 95% CI was 0.71-1.02, P = 0.078), neutrophil ratio (NEU%, HR = 0.99, 95% CI was 0.97-1.00, P = 0.114), platelet count (PLT, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 0.99-1.00, P = 0.108) and total bile acid (TBA, HR = 1.01, 95% CI was 1.00-1.02, P = 0.096) shown to be associated with poor prognosis. On multivariable analysis, level of PCT was an important factor influencing the outcome of sepsis ( HR = 1.03, 95% CI was 1.01-1.05, P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that there was no significant difference with respect to the overall survival between the two groups, with patients of PCT ≤ 0.25 μg/L and PCT > 0.25 μg/L ( P = 0.220). It also showed that the overall survival rate in patients with high APACHE Ⅱ score (> 27 points) was significantly lower than that in patients with low APACHE Ⅱ score (≤ 27 points, P = 0.015). Conclusion:Serum PCT level is valuable prognostic factors of elderly patients with sepsis, and higher APACHE Ⅱ score (> 27 points) indicates a poor prognosis.
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Objective: Several predictive scoring systems measuring disease severity are used to predict outcomes, typically mortality, of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Two common validated predictive scoring systems include acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and modified sequential organ failure assessment score (mSOFA). To compare performance of APACHE II and mSOFA score in critically ill patients regarding the outcomes in the form of morbidity and mortality in ICU. Methods: This prospective observational clinical study was conducted on 100 patients over 6 months. For each patient, APACHE II score on day of admission and serial mSOFA scores on day 0, 3, 7 and 10 were calculated and compared. Results: The age of the non-survivors was significantly older than survivors was (57.1±11.76 and 54.28±15.16). [In our study we found that the mean length of ICU stay of non-survivors was (5.41±4.81) & survivors(8.63± 4.81) days.] In our study mortality rate was 40%.The APACHE II score with cut-off point of 23 demonstrated a sensitivity rate of 98.33% & specificity rate of 17.5%, accuracy of 66.00%. Serial mSOFA scores with cut-off of 11 on day0, day3, day7 better differentiated survivors from non-survivors with 98.3% sensitivity, 27.5% specificity and 70% accuracy. Conclusion: Both APACHE II and mSOFA scores can help ICU physicians as a significant predictive marker for mortality in critically ill patients. The serial measurement of mSOFA score in the first week is a better mortality predictor tool than APACHE II score in critically ill patients.
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Resumen: Introducción: La obesidad es una enfermedad con impacto negativo en la sobrevida; se hace referencia al término «paradoja de la obesidad¼ utilizado como un efecto protector en la mortalidad. Objetivo: Determinar si la obesidad es un factor de protección en el paciente crítico. Material y métodos: Se realizó un estudio de cohorte. Se obtuvo información de expedientes de Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) del Hospital Regional Monterrey del Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales para los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE) Monterrey durante 2018. Se hizo análisis bivariado para asociación χ2 y U de Mann-Whitney para correlación fórmula de Pearson y análisis de supervivencia con curva de Kaplan-Meier. Resultados: Se analizaron 151 expedientes de pacientes, 73 obesos y 78 no obesos, se observó que la obesidad es un factor protector para mortalidad (p = 0.044, OR 0.431 (IC 0.187-0.992). El IMC no se correlaciona con el Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II (p = 0.066); sin embargo, con un impacto en la curva de supervivencia (p = 0.42). Conclusiones: Se detecta la obesidad como factor protector; sin embargo, su asociación con enfermedades crónicas degenerativas, estancia prolongada en UCI y sus complicaciones no dejan de tener impacto negativo en la supervivencia fuera de la unidad.
Abstract: Introduction: Obesity is a disease with a negative impact on survival; the prognosis of these patients is has controversial results. The term «obesity paradox¼ refers as a protective effect on mortality. Objective: To determine whether obesity is a protective factor in the critically ill patient. Material y methods: A cohort study was conducted. Data was obtained from ICU records of the ISSSTE Monterrey Regional Hospital during 2018, bivariate analysis was performed for χ2 and Mann Whitney's U association, for Pearson's formula correlation and survival analysis with Kaplan-Meier curve. Results: 151 records of 73 obese and 78 non-obese patients were analyzed, it was observed that obesity is a protective factor for mortality (p = 0.044, OR 0.431(IC 0.187-0.992), BMI does not correlate with APACHE II (p = 0.066), however, an impact on the survival curve was observed (p = 0.42). Conclusions: According to the results obtained, it matches with the term «obesity paradox¼, however, its association with chronic degenerative diseases, prolonged stay in the ICU and its complications do not cease to have a negative impact on survival outside the unit.
Resumo: Introdução: A obesidade é uma doença com impacto negativo na sobrevida; O termo «paradoxo da obesidade¼ refere-se a um efeito protetor sobre a mortalidade. Objetivo: Determinar se a obesidade é um fator protetor em pacientes críticos. Material e métodos: Foi realizado um estudo de coorte. As informações foram obtidas dos registros da UTI do ISSSTE Monterrey Regional Hospital durante o ano de 2018, foi realizada análise bivariada para associação χ2 eU Mann-Whitney, para correlação da fórmula de Pearson e análise de sobrevida com curva de Kaplan-Meier. Resultados: Foram analisados 151 prontuários de 73 pacientes obesos e 78 não obesos, observou-se que a obesidade é fator protetor para mortalidade (p = 0.044, OR 0.431(IC 0.187-0.992), IMC não se correlaciona com APACHE II (p = 0.066), porém, com impacto na curva de sobrevida (p = 0.42). Conclusões: A obesidade é encontrada como fator de proteção, porém, sua associação com doenças crônico-degenerativas, permanência prolongada na UTI e suas complicações não deixam de ter impacto negativo na sobrevida fora da unidade.
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Objective:To assess the ability of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) and trauma-injury severity score (TRISS) in predicting mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients.Methods:Databases of PubMed, Cochrane Library, SinoMed, CNKI were retrieved from January 1980 to December 2020. The ability of the APACHE Ⅱ and the TRISS to predict mortality in the ICU trauma patients was compared in the retrieval literatures. The relevant literatures were screened by two researchers independently. The data of the included literatures were extracted, and the quality of the included literatures was evaluated. MetaDiSc 1.4 software was used to test the heterogeneity among studies. Meta-analysis was performed on diagnostic accuracy indicators and the summary receiver operator characteristics curve (SROC curve) was fitted. The area under SROC curve (AUC) of the two scores was compared. Deek test was used to analyze literature publication bias.Results:Six studies were selected with 4 054 patients involved with medium and high quality. Meta-analysis results showed that APACHE Ⅱ and TRISS had low sensitivity [the pooled sensitivity and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.48 (0.41-0.55) and 0.51 (0.41-0.62)], high specificity [the pooled specificity and 95% CI was 0.96 (0.93-0.97) and 0.98 (0.95-0.99)], the pooled diagnostic odds ratio ( DOR) and 95% CI was 20 (14-28) and 46 (18-120), and overall good performance in terms of AUC [the AUC and 95% CI was 0.79 (0.75-0.82) and 0.80 (0.76-0.83)] in predicting the prognosis of ICU trauma patients. There was no statistical difference in AUC between the two scores ( Z = 1.542, P > 0.05). Deek funnel plot showed little publication bias. Conclusion:Both APACHE Ⅱ and TRISS scores could accurately predict mortality in ICU trauma patients.
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Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a type of necrotizing and inflammatory liver disease caused by certain commonly-used drugs, Chinese herbal medicines or dietary supplements. In severe cases, it may lead to acute liver failure. Without liver transplantation, the fatality could reach up to 80%. It is of significance to master the indications of liver transplantation. Several prognostic scoring systems have been developed to help clinicians to decide which patients need urgent liver transplantation, such as King's College criteria (KCC) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring systems. However, these scoring methods have been developed for a long period of time and lack of modifications. Therefore, scholars have proposed several new scoring systems, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring systems, which provide novel ideas for the evaluation of liver transplantation. As an important treatment measure for drug-induced acute liver failure, urgent liver transplantation has greatly improved the survival rate of patients. In this article, the classification, clinical diagnosis, liver transplantation evaluation and prognosis of DILI were summarized, aiming to provide reference for the treatment of DILI by liver transplantation.
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Objective:To explore the risk factors of intensive care unit acquired weakness (ICUAW) in patients with sepsis, and to evaluate the predictive value of each risk factor for ICUAW.Methods:A case control study was conducted, 60 septic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Henan Provincial People's Hospital from October 20, 2020 to February 20, 2021 were enrolled. The patients were divided into two groups: sepsis ICUAW group and sepsis non-ICUAW group. The data of gender, age, body mass index (BMI), acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) score, complications, mechanical ventilation, duration of ICUAW, length of stay in ICU, fasting blood glucose, blood lactic acid (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, outcome, antimicrobial agent, glucocorticoid, sedatives and analgesics drugs and vasoactive drugs were collected. Risk factors were screened by univariate Logistic regression analysis, and odds ratio ( OR) was adjusted by multivariate binary logistic regression, P < 0.05 was considered as independent risk factors. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to analyze the predictive value of independent risk factors. Results:The APACHEⅡ score of the sepsis ICUAW group was significantly higher than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group (23.05±8.17 vs. 15.33±4.89, P < 0.05), the total length of stay in the ICU was significantly longer than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group (days: 15.1±9.2 vs. 8.5±3.4, P < 0.05), the improvement rate of patients was significantly lower than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group [45.0% (9/20) vs. 95.0% (38/40), P < 0.05]. After univariate Logistic regression and multicollinearity test analysis, 7 factors including APACHEⅡ score, average SOFA score, blood lactic acid, proportion of mechanical ventilation, sedatives and analgesics drugs, type of antibiotics and type of vasoactive drugs were included in the binary Logistic regression model [ OR: 1.21, 2.05, 2.26, 0.21, 1.54, 2.07, 1.38, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.09-1.35, 1.42-2.94, 1.12-4.57, 0.05-0.66, 1.03-2.29, 1.27-3.37, 0.96-2.00, all P < 0.05]. Hosmer-Lemchaw test P = 0.901, and the correct percentage of prediction was 85%, indicating good model fit. Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHEⅡ score and average SOFA score were independent risk factors for the occurrence of ICUAW in septic patients (APACHEⅡscore: OR = 1.17, 95% CI was 1.004-1.376, P = 0.044; average SOFA score: OR = 1.86, 95% CI was 1.157-2.981, P = 0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the mean value of APACHEⅡ score, average SOFA score and their combined detection had a certain predictive value for the occurrence of ICUAW in sepsis patients, areas under ROC curve (AUC) were 0.787, 0.881, 0.905, 95% CI was 0.646-0.928, 0.791-0.972, 0.828-0.982, all P < 0.05. When the cut-off value was 19.500, 6.225, 0.375, the sensitivity was 75%, 90%, 90%, and the specificity were 80%, 80%, 85%, respectively. Conclusion:APACHEⅡ score and average SOFA score can be used as independent risk factors for the occurrence of ICUAW in sepsis, and their combined predictive value is better than that of individual index.
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Objective:To study the influence of time-dependent acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score on 14-day death risk in patients with severe stroke, and to provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment.Methods:Data of 3 229 patients with severe stroke were enrolled from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅲ (MIMIC-Ⅲ). According to the main types of stroke, the patients were divided into subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), ischemic stroke (IS) and other groups. According to age, patients were divided into > 60 years old and ≤ 60 years old subgroups. According to the baseline of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, they were divided into subgroups of > 3 and ≤ 3. The daily measured values of APACHE Ⅱ scores in each patient were recorded. And all-cause death within 14 days after admission to intensive care unit (ICU) was used as the outcome index to obtain the survival status and survival time of patients. Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data were established to evaluate the effect of APACHE Ⅱ score measured at multiple time points on the death risk of patients, and a subgroup analysis was performed.Results:Among the joint models, the one which include APACHE Ⅱ score, and the interaction items between APACHE Ⅱ and age showed the better fitting. Further analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score was affected by age, gender, hospital admission, baseline SOFA score and smoking history. After controlling for these confounding factors, APACHE Ⅱ score was significantly associated with 14-day all-cause death in patients with severe stroke [hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.31-1.66, P < 0.001], which indicated that the risk of death increased by 48% (95% CI was 31%-66%) for each 1-point increase in APACHE Ⅱ score. Subgroup analysis showed that for different types of severe stroke patients, APACHE Ⅱ score had a greater impact on the risk of 14-day death in SAH patients ( HR = 1.43, 95% CI was 1.10-1.85), but had a smaller impact on ICH and IS groups [HR (95% CI) was 1.37 (1.15-1.64) and 1.35 (1.06-1.71), respectively]. There was no significant difference in APACHE Ⅱ score on the risk of 14-day death between the patients aged > 60 years old and those aged ≤ 60 years old [ HR (95% CI): 1.37 (1.08-1.72) vs. 1.35 (1.07-1.70), respectively]. Compared with patients with SOFA score > 3, APACHE Ⅱ score had a greater impact on the risk of 14-day death in patients with SOFA score ≤ 3 [ HR (95% CI): 1.40 (1.16-1.70) vs. 1.34 (1.16-1.55)]. Conclusion:Time-dependent APACHE Ⅱ score is an important indicator to evaluate the risk of death in patients with severe stroke.
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Background: Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with wide clinical variation and its incidence is increasing. Acute pancreatitis may vary in severity, from mild self-limiting pancreatic inflammation to pancreatic necrosis with life-threatening sequelae. The severity of acute pancreatitis is linked to the presence of systemic organ dysfunctions and/or necrotizing pancreatitis. Aim of the study: To compare the efficacy of Ranson scoring with APACHE II scoring system in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis. Materials and methods: The present study was a prospective study of 33 cases of Acute pancreatitis admitted in Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital, Chennai, during the study period of July 2014 to September 2014. 33 cases for the purpose of the study were selected on the basis of the nonprobability (purposive) sampling method. multiple clinical and laboratory variables of both Ranson and APACHE II scoring system and the final score of the patient from both the scoring systems are assessed to know their efficacy in predicting the severity of the disease (higher the score more severe the disease). Results: Overall, 8(24.2%) patients suffered from severe pancreatitis and 25(75.7%) had mild acute pancreatitis of which all 8 had severe attack as per APACHE II score (>8) and only 3 of these were considered severe by Ranson score (>3). The systemic complications were a multiorgan failure in 2(6.06%), respiratory 1(3.03%) and renal 1(3.03%) all seen in patients with the severe score as per APACHE II. Umarani Subramaniam, Ahila Muthuselvi, Kesavan. A comparative study between APACHE II and Ranson scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis. IAIM, 2019; 6(4): 55-59. Page 56 Conclusion: The early diagnosis and precise scoring of disease severity are important goals in the initial evaluation and management of pancreatitis. Pancreatitis not only must be differentiated from a myriad of other potential diagnoses, but patients must also be stratified to identify those with severe disease and to guide appropriate therapy.
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Objective: To evaluate the ability of new injury severity score (NISS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II to predict all-cause mortality of patients with severe trauma in mainland China. Methods: This was a multicenter observational cohort study conducted in the ICU of the Chonggang General Hospital, Daping Hospital of the Army Medical University and Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical College from January 2012 to August 2016. The score of NISS, APACHE II, GCS, a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II were calculated based on data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Data were processed with Student's t-test, chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of six scoring systems. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The primary endpoint was death from any cause during ICU stay. Results: A total of 852 and 238 patients with severe trauma were assigned to the derivation group and validation group, respectively. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.826 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.794-0.855)] for NISS, 0.802 (95% CI=0.768-0.832) for APACHE II, 0.808 (95% CI=0.774-0.838) for NGCS, 0.859 (95% CI=0.829 -0.886) for NISS+NGCS, 0.864 (95% CI=0.835-0.890) for APACHE II +NGCS, 0.896 (95% CI=0.869-0.929) for NISS+APACHE II in the derivation cohort. Similarly, the score of NISS+APACHE II was also better than the other five scores in the validation cohort (AUC=0.782; 95% CI=0.725-0.833) and had a good calibration (P=0.41). Conclusions: Taking into account anatomical and physiological parameters completely, the combination of NISS and APACHE II performs better than NISS, APACHE II, NGCS, NISS+NGCS, APACHE II +NGCS for predicting mortality in ICU severe trauma patients. It is needful to develop models that contain various types of accessible predictors (demographic variables, injury cause/mechanism, physiological and anatomical variables, etc.) as comprehensive as possible.
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Objective To investigate the effect of serum calcium level on the prognosis of patients with sepsis. Methods Clinical data of 119 patients with sepsis admitted to intensive care medicine (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China from January 2017 to October 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Gender, age, and C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), serum calcium levels, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ), sequential organ failure score (SOFA) within 24 hours of diagnosis, and 28-day mortality were collected. The patients were divided into the normal serum calcium group (serum calcium 2.00-2.67 mmol/L) and the hypocalcemia group (serum calcium < 2.00 mmol/L) according to their serum calcium level. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 28-day prognosis. Pearson correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between serum calcium level and clinical indicators. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive value of serum calcium level on prognosis. Results A total of 119 patients with sepsis were included, including 50 patients with normal serum calcium, with serum calcium level of (2.14±0.10) mmol/L; and 69 patients of hypocalcemia, and the incidence of hypocalcemia was 57.98%, with serum calcium level of (1.81±0.14) mmol/L. In the hypocalcemia group, except that the APACHEⅡ score was significantly higher than that of the normal serum calcium group (25.59±5.52 vs. 22.28±4.89, P < 0.01), there was no significant difference in gender, age, CRP, PCT and SOFA score between the two groups. The 28-day mortality rate of the hypocalcemia group was significantly higher than that of the normal serum calcium group [78.26% (54/69) vs. 48.00% (24/50), χ2 = 10.45, P < 0.01]. The level of serum calcium in the death group was significantly lower than that in the survival group (mmol/L: 1.90±0.20 vs. 2.04±0.19), while the APACHEⅡ score was significantly higher than the survival group (25.78±5.25 vs. 21.20±4.68), with statistically significant differences (both P < 0.01). There was a negative correlation between serum calcium level and PCT, APACHEⅡ scores in patients with sepsis (r1 = -2.10, P1 = 0.04;r2 = -3.91, P2 < 0.01), but no correlation with CRP and SOFA score (r1 = 0.75, P1 = 0.46; r2 = -1.21, P2 = 0.23). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients with serum calcium level was 0.70 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.602-0.798], and the best cut-off value was 1.92 mmol/L, with the sensitivity was 52.56%, and the specificity was 82.93%. Conclusions The prognosis of sepsis patients with hypocalcemia is poor. Serum calcium level can be used as a predictor of prognosis in patients with sepsis.
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Objective To investigate the prognostic value of microRNA-122 (miR-122) combined with acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) score in patient with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and to provide evidence for the diagnosis and treatment of ARDS. Methods ARDS patients admitted to the Third People's Hospital of Haikou City from January 2016 to December 2018 were enrolled. The general data, serum miR-122 expression level and APACHEⅡ score within 24 hours were collected. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to the survival status of ARDS patients. ARDS patients were divided into low-risk group ( < 10 scores), medium-risk group (10-20 scores) and high-risk group ( > 20 scores) according to APACHEⅡ score. Predictive values of miR-122 and APACHEⅡ scores on prognosis in ARDS patients were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The correlation between the serum miR-122 expression and APACHEⅡscore in patients with ARDS was calculated by Pearson correlation analysis. Results A total of 142 ARDS patients were selected, 94 male and 48 female; with age (56.80±11.30) years old; 55 deaths and 87 survivors; 67 of high-risk, 48 of medium-risk and 27 of low-risk. The expression of serum miR-122 and APACHEⅡ score in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group [miR-122 (2-ΔΔCt): 0.26±0.12 vs. 0.07±0.03, APACHEⅡ:31.84±4.25 vs. 15.30±2.60, both P < 0.01]. With the severity increase of the disease, the serum miR-122 expression level, APACHEⅡ score, and mortality rate of ARDS patients gradually elevated, and the difference between the two groups was significant in the low-risk group, medium-risk group, and high-risk group [miR-122 (2-ΔΔCt):0.05±0.02, 0.14±0.06, 0.23±0.09; APACHEⅡ: 12.30±2.15, 20.62±3.40, 28.90±3.60; mortality rate: 11.1%, 31.2%, 55.2%, respectively, all P < 0.05]. ROC curve analysis showed that miR-122 and APACHEⅡ score could predict the death of ARDS patients, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.835 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.776-0.893] and 0.790 (95%CI = 0.732-0.854); the predicted value of the miR-122 combined with APACHEⅡscore (AUC = 0.918, 95%CI = 0.857-0.972) was higher than the single miR-122 and APACHEⅡscore (both P < 0.05), with sensitivity and specificity were 91.3% and 86.4% respectively. The correlation analysis showed that the expression of serum miR-122 was positively correlated with APACHEⅡscore in death patient with ARDS (r = 0.825, P < 0.01). Conclusion Elevated serum miR-122 expression level is associated with disease severity and prognosis of ARDS patients; miR-122 combination with APACHEⅡ score has a high evaluation value on prognosis of ARDS patients.
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Objective To explore the risk factors affecting prognosis of critically ill patients following cardiac surgery, furthermore, to assess severity and keep alarm earlier. Methods A retrospective study was conducted. The clinical data of critically ill patients following cardiac surgery admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 1st 2014 to December 31st 2018 were enrolled. The clinical characteristics, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) and the worst laboratory examination within 24 hours after ICU admission, and the duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, using continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), accepting vasoactive agents such as norepinephrine, dopamine or dobutamine and blood products such as red blood cells, plasma or platelets were recorded. The patients were divided into survival group and dead group based on discharge prognosis, and the difference in clinical data between the two groups was compared. Binary multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors affecting the prognosis of critically ill patients following cardiac surgery, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the predictive value of these risk factors. Results In total, 97 patients after cardiac operation were admitted to ICU during the five years. Thirty-two patients were excluded owing to age less than 16 years old, no more than 24 hours of the length of ICU stay, without the outcomes of myocardium enzymes or myocardium markers within the first 24 hours or admitted only for pacemaker. Finally, 65 patients met the criteria, with 40 survived and 25 died. Compared with survival group, APACHEⅡ scores, the level of serum uric acid, serum creatinine (SCr), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), procalcitonin (PCT) and the rate of patients accepting CRRT, vasoactive agents and blood products in dead group were significantly increased with significant differences; however, there was no statistically difference in gender, age, body weight index (BMI), distribution of types of cardiac surgery, ratio of patients suffered from hypertension and diabetes, mean arterial pressure (MAP), white blood cell (WBC), coagulation, length of ICU stay, or duration of mechanical ventilation between the two groups. Binary multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHEⅡ scores [odds ratio (OR) = 1.123, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.004-1.257, P = 0.043] and cTnT (OR = 1.496, 95%CI = 1.038-2.158, P = 0.031) were the independent risk factors for prognosis of critical ill patients following cardiac surgery. ROC curve analysis showed that APACHEⅡ score and cTnT had predictive value for prognosis of critical ill patients following cardiac surgery, the best was exerted when APACHEⅡ score combined with cTnT, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.839, the joint prediction probability was 0.42, the sensitivity was 80.0%, and the specificity was 64.0%. Conclusion APACHEⅡscore and cTnT may be one of independent risk factors for prognosis of critical ill patients following cardiac surgery, and there will be far more greater predictive value when APACHEⅡ score combined with cTnT.
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To investigate the assessment values of procalcitonin (PCT), lactic acid (LAC), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) score in patients with sepsis. Methods 140 patients with suspicious bacterial infection admitted to emergency department of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital of the Capital Medical University from August 2017 to June 2018 were enrolled. They were divided into three groups according to diagnostic criteria of Sepsis-3: non-sepsis group (n = 58), sepsis group (n = 66) and septic shock group (n = 16). The PCT, LAC, SOFA score, APACHEⅡscore, 28-day prognosis, and positive detection rate of PCT and LAC were compared among three groups. Independent predictors of 28-day mortality were analyzed by Logistic regression; predictive values of PCT, LAC, SOFA score and APACHEⅡscore for 28-day mortality in sepsis patients were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results PCT, LAC, SOFA score, APACHEⅡscore at admission, and 28-day mortality in sepsis group and septic shock group were significantly higher than those in non-sepsis group, and PCT, LAC, APACHEⅡ score, and 28-day mortality in sepsis shock group were further higher than those in sepsis group [PCT (μg/L): 38.1±12.6 vs. 4.6±2.3, LAC (mmol/L):3.3±2.1 vs. 2.4±2.1, APACHEⅡ score: 14.9±2.4 vs. 9.5±4.3, 28-day mortality: 75.0% vs. 24.2%, all P < 0.05]. The positive detection rate of PCT and LAC in sepsis group and septic shock group were higher than those in non-sepsis group (positive detection rate of PCT: 56.1%, 81.3% vs. 32.8%; positive detection rate of LAC: 42.4%, 62.5% vs. 13.7%; all P < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that PCT, LAC, SOFA score and APACHEⅡ score were independent predictors of 28-day mortality [PCT: odds ratio (OR) = 0.933, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.878-0.991; LAC:OR = 0.539, 95%CI = 0.347-0.838; SOFA score: OR = 0.291, 95%CI = 0.514-0.741; APACHEⅡ score: OR = 0.808, 95%CI = 0.669-0.976; all P < 0.05]. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of PCT, LAC, SOFA score and APACHEⅡ score predicting 28-day mortality was 0.76, 0.86, 0.81 and 0.87, respectively. The assessment values of APACHEⅡscore and LAC were higher than PCT in predicting 28-day mortality (Z1 = 2.56, Z2 = 2.45, both P < 0.01), and the performance of SOFA score was similar to PCT. Conclusions PCT, LAC, SOFA score and APACHEⅡscore were reliable indexes to evaluate disease severity for patients diagnosed with infection. The assessment values of APACHEⅡscore and LAC in 28-day mortality were superior to SOFA score and PCT.
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Objective: To evaluate the ability of new injury severity score (NISS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II to predict all-cause mortality of patients with severe trauma in mainland China. Methods: This was a multicenter observational cohort study conducted in the ICU of the Chonggang General Hospital, Daping Hospital of the Army Medical University and Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical College from January 2012 to August 2016. The score of NISS, APACHE II, GCS, a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II were calculated based on data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Data were processed with Student's t-test, chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of six scoring systems. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The primary endpoint was death from any cause during ICU stay. Results: A total of 852 and 238 patients with severe trauma were assigned to the derivation group and validation group, respectively. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.826 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.794-0.855)] for NISS, 0.802 (95% CI=0.768-0.832) for APACHE II, 0.808 (95% CI=0.774-0.838) for NGCS, 0.859 (95% CI=0.829 -0.886) for NISS+NGCS, 0.864 (95% CI=0.835-0.890) for APACHE II +NGCS, 0.896 (95% CI=0.869-0.929) for NISS+APACHE II in the derivation cohort. Similarly, the score of NISS+APACHE II was also better than the other five scores in the validation cohort (AUC=0.782; 95% CI=0.725-0.833) and had a good calibration (P=0.41). Conclusions: Taking into account anatomical and physiological parameters completely, the combination of NISS and APACHE II performs better than NISS, APACHE II, NGCS, NISS+NGCS, APACHE II +NGCS for predicting mortality in ICU severe trauma patients. It is needful to develop models that contain various types of accessible predictors (demographic variables, injury cause/mechanism, physiological and anatomical variables, etc.) as comprehensive as possible.
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Objective To explore the value of a new community-acquired pneumonia severity index(CPSI) in predicting the severity and mortality of patients with community-acquired pneumonia(CAP).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted.Patients with CAP in critical care medicine of the First People's Hospital of Chenzhou were enrolled in this study.According to whether the patients died within 28 days,patients were divided into the survival group and the death group.The difference of sex,age,vital signs,blood test,the lowest Glasgow coma score (GCS) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score,sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA)score,CURB-65 (confusion,uremia,respiratory rate,BP,age 65 years) score,pneumonia severity index (PSI) score and community-acquired pneumonia severity index (CPSI) score were compared between the two groups.Logistic regression analysis was performed for the scoring systems with statistical significance in univariate analysis.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was drawn to analyze the prognostic value of each scoring system.Results Totally 283 patients were enrolled in this study (184 survivals and 99 deaths,mortality rate 35％).Univariate analysis showed that age,mechanical ventilation (MV) ratio,the fastest heart beat rate (HR),the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP),the lowest mean blood pressure (MAP),pressure adjusted shock index (PASI),inspired oxygen concentration (FiO2),arterial oxygen partial pressure (PaO2),and oxygenation index (PO2/FiO2),blood urea nitrogen concentration (BUN),serum creatinine concentration (Scr),urine output,length of ICU stay,the lowest GCS,and APACHE Ⅱ score were significantly different between the two groups (P＜0.05).Multivariate regression analysis showed that CPSI score and SOFA score were independent risk factors for patients with CAP.The ROC curve of CAP patients was predicted in each scoring system,and the area under the ROC curve of CPSI score (0.728),SOFA and age score (0.708),PSI score (0.701),APACHE Ⅱ score (0.690),CURB-65 score (0.687) and SOFA score (0.683) gradually decreased.The sensitivity and specificity of the area under curve prediction showed that CPSI score was superior to the other scores.Conclusions The CPSI score can evaluate the severity of CAP patients,efficiently predict the outcome of patients with CAP,and can be widely used in clinical practice.
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Objective To approach the value of red cell distribution width (RDW) on the prognostic assessment of patients with abdominal sepsis. Methods The clinical data of adult patients with abdominal sepsis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2015 to September 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to ICU prognosis. The levels of serum lactate (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT), RDW, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ) score within 24 hours were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the prognostic value of Lac, PCT, RDW and APACHE Ⅱ score. Results 162 patients with abdominal sepsis were enrolled, 132 survived, and 30 died. Compared with survival group, the Lac, PCT, APACHE Ⅱ score, and RDW in death group were significantly increased [Lac (mmol/L): 4.21±2.42 vs. 2.27±1.51, PCT (mg/L): 32.08±12.95 vs. 11.87±8.81, APACHEⅡ score: 30.13±6.42 vs. 23.36±5.29, RDW: (16.64±1.38)% vs. (13.49±2.03)%, all P < 0.01]. ROC curve analysis showed that all indicators could be used to predict the prognosis of abdominal sepsis, with the maximum predictive value of RDW. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.888, it was greater than that of APACHE Ⅱ score (AUC = 0.787), Lac (AUC = 0.767) and PCT (AUC = 0.696). When threshold value of RDW was 15.40%, the sensitivity was 83.3%, and the specificity was 85.6%. Conclusion RDW can evaluate the prognosis of patients with abdominal sepsis, and its predictive value is greater than traditional evaluation parameters such as APACHEⅡscore, Lac, and PCT.
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Objective To investigate high risk factors of intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICUAW) in patients with sepsis. Methods A retrospective study was conducted. 164 patients with mechanical ventilation (MV) who were diagnosed sepsis and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from January 1st, 2015 to September 30th, 2017 were enrolled. The general situation, the basic diseases (hypertension, diabetes), body mass index (BMI), protopathy diseases, the level of albumin before ICU admission, the MV time, whether to use glucocorticoid and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) or not, nutrition supply (nutritional way, nutrition initiation time, amino acid/protein supply, nutritional status on ICU 3 days and 7 days), myoglobin, the length of ICU stay, the length of hospital stay, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ) score were collected. The high risk factors of ICUAW in patients with sepsis complicated with MODS were analyzed further using multi-factor Logistic regression analysis. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to analyze the myoglobin related factors in sepsis patients. Results The ICUAW incidence was 25.6% (42/164). The risk factors with differences in univariate analysis were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and it was shown that the level of albumin before ICU [odds ratio (OR) = 0.232, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.061-0.885, P = 0.032], the MV time (OR = 0.380,95%CI = 0.154-0.935, P = 0.035), nutrition initiation time (OR = 2.642, 95%CI = 1.100-6.346, P = 0.030), myoglobin (OR = 4.129, 95%CI = 1.681-10.142, P =0.002) were the independent risk factors for ICUAW in sepsis patients with MODS. The linear regression showed that the level of myoglobin was positively correlated with APACHE Ⅱ score (β= 38.297, P = 0.000), negatively correlated with the length of hospital stay (β= -7.071, P = 0.048), and it had nothing to do with the MV time and the length of ICU stay. Conclusions Evaluation of muscle function should be a routine part of ICU examination. The levels of albumin,MV time, hemoglobin and nutritional start-up time were independent risk factors for ICUAW in sepsis patients with MODS. Myoglobin levels can be used as an indicator of severity.
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Objective To investigate the predictive value of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score on the prognosis of adult patients with infection in intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of the infected patients in the ICU of the 401st Hospital of the People's Liberation Army from August 1st, 2000 to December 31st, 2017. The clinical data included patients' gender, age, basic diseases, etc.; the worst values of vital signs and laboratory test results within 24 hours of admission were recorded, the scores of the qSOFA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) were calculated separately; the outcome of ICU was recorded. The predictive values of three scoring systems were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results Excluding patients with incomplete clinical data, cancer and immunosuppressive patients, a total number of 1 059 patients were enrolled in this study, with 679 males and 380 females, the average age was 72.57±16.06, the ICU mortality was 35.32% (374/1 059). The ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under ROC curve (AUC) of APACHE Ⅱ, SOFA, qSOFA scores to predict the prognosis of infected patients were 0.713, 0.744 and 0.662, respectively. Although the AUC of qSOFA in predicting prognosis was significantly lower than that of other two scoring systems (both P < 0.05), but it still had some predictive ability. According to the Youden index, the best cut-off point for qSOFA was 2 to evaluate the prognosis of the infection, and the sensitivity was 71.65%, the specificity was 53.87%, the positive likelihood ratio was 1.55, the negative likelihood ratio was 0.53, the positive predictive value was 0.426, the negative predictive value was 0.799, and the accuracy was 59.62%. The mortality of the infected patients was increased with qSOFA score, and the mortality difference among patients with different qSOFA scores was statistically significant (χ2= 84.605, P = 0.000). The patients were divided into two groups according to the cut-off value of qSOFA, and the mortality in qSOFA score ≥2 group was higher than that in qSOFA score < 2 group [odds ratio (OR) = 2.767, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 2.116-3.617, P = 0.000]. Conclusions qSOFA, SOFA and APACHE Ⅱscores have the capability of predicting the outcome for the infected patients. qSOFA score is expected to be a quick and simple tool to judge the prognosis of ICU infection patients because of its advantages of quick acquisition.
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Objective To explore the predictive value of plasma cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) for prognosis in patients with sepsis. Methods 105 patients with sepsis admitted to department of emergency of the First Hospital of Quanzhou Affiliated to Fujian Medical University from June 2015 to June 2017 were enrolled. Patients were divided into sepsis group (n = 50) and severe sepsis group (n = 55). At the same time, 50 cases of physical examination center in our hospital were randomly selected as the healthy control group. The differences of cf-DNA, procalcitonin (PCT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ) score among the three groups were compared. The correlation between cf-DNA and PCT or APACHEⅡ were analyzed by Bivarite method. Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent predictors of sepsis. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was made to evaluate cf-DNA, PCT, APACHEⅡ alone or combined ability to predict the prognosis of sepsis. Results The PCT, APACHE Ⅱ and cf-DNA in the sepsis group and severe sepsis group were significantly higher than those in the healthy control group [PCT (μg/L):5.80 (3.28, 8.85), 17.53 (8.40, 29.61) vs. 0.02 (0.01, 0.03); APACHEⅡ: 13.04±3.03, 23.29±8.02 vs. 2.10±1.05;cf-DNA (μg/L): 1 438.0 (1 154.0, 1 576.0), 2 595.0 (2 162.0, 5 198.0) vs. 17.0 (13.0, 20.5); all P﹤0.05], and the indicators in the severe sepsis group were further higher than the sepsis group (all P < 0.05). Correlation analysis showed that cf-DNA was significantly positive correlated with PCT [r = 0.675, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.575-0.766, P < 0.001] and APACHEⅡ (r = 0.911, 95%CI = 0.874-0.939, P < 0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under ROC curve (AUC) of PCT, APACHEⅡ, cf-DNA, PCT+APACHEⅡ, cf-DNA+PCT, cf-DNA+APACHEⅡ, cf-DNA+PCT+APACHEⅡ to predict the prognosis of sepsis patients were 0.898, 0.905, 0.961, 0.941, 0.974, 0.976 and 0.982, respectively. It was shown that when predicted alone with PCT, APACHEⅡ and cf-DNA, the AUC of cf-DNA was the largest (0.961), the sensitivity was 100%, and the specificity was 81.43%; the combined prediction of cf-DNA with PCT or APACHEⅡ could further increase AUC, and the combined prediction of cf-DNA, PCT and APACHEⅡhad the highest AUC (0.982), the sensitivity was 94.29%, the specificity was 98.57%. Conclusions cf-DNA, PCT and APACHEⅡ have certain predictive value for the prognosis of sepsis. The value of cf-DNA was the highest when predicted alone, but the predictive ability of cf-DNA combined with PCT and APACHEⅡ was the best.