Combined anatomic and physiologic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with severe trauma: A multicenter observational cohort study

Objective: To evaluate the ability of new injury severity score (NISS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II to predict all-cause mortality of patients with severe trauma in mainland China. Methods: This was a multicenter observational cohort study conducted in the ICU of the Chonggang General Hospital, Daping Hospital of the Army Medical University and Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical College from January 2012 to August 2016. The score of NISS, APACHE II, GCS, a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II were calculated based on data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Data were processed with Student's t-test, chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of six scoring systems. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The primary endpoint was death from any cause during ICU stay. Results: A total of 852 and 238 patients with severe trauma were assigned to the derivation group and validation group, respectively. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.826 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.794-0.855)] for NISS, 0.802 (95% CI=0.768-0.832) for APACHE II, 0.808 (95% CI=0.774-0.838) for NGCS, 0.859 (95% CI=0.829 -0.886) for NISS+NGCS, 0.864 (95% CI=0.835-0.890) for APACHE II +NGCS, 0.896 (95% CI=0.869-0.929) for NISS+APACHE II in the derivation cohort. Similarly, the score of NISS+APACHE II was also better than the other five scores in the validation cohort (AUC=0.782; 95% CI=0.725-0.833) and had a good calibration (P=0.41). Conclusions: Taking into account anatomical and physiological parameters completely, the combination of NISS and APACHE II performs better than NISS, APACHE II, NGCS, NISS+NGCS, APACHE II +NGCS for predicting mortality in ICU severe trauma patients. It is needful to develop models that contain various types of accessible predictors (demographic variables, injury cause/mechanism, physiological and anatomical variables, etc.) as comprehensive as possible.

Combined anatomic and physiologic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with severe trauma: A multicenter observational cohort study

Objective: To evaluate the ability of new injury severity score (NISS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II to predict all-cause mortality of patients with severe trauma in mainland China. Methods: This was a multicenter observational cohort study conducted in the ICU of the Chonggang General Hospital, Daping Hospital of the Army Medical University and Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical College from January 2012 to August 2016. The score of NISS, APACHE II, GCS, a combination of NISS and GCS, a combination of APACHE II and GCS, a combination of NISS and APACHE II were calculated based on data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Data were processed with Student's t-test, chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of six scoring systems. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The primary endpoint was death from any cause during ICU stay. Results: A total of 852 and 238 patients with severe trauma were assigned to the derivation group and validation group, respectively. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.826 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.794-0.855)] for NISS, 0.802 (95% CI=0.768-0.832) for APACHE II, 0.808 (95% CI=0.774-0.838) for NGCS, 0.859 (95% CI=0.829 -0.886) for NISS+NGCS, 0.864 (95% CI=0.835-0.890) for APACHE II +NGCS, 0.896 (95% CI=0.869-0.929) for NISS+APACHE II in the derivation cohort. Similarly, the score of NISS+APACHE II was also better than the other five scores in the validation cohort (AUC=0.782; 95% CI=0.725-0.833) and had a good calibration (P=0.41). Conclusions: Taking into account anatomical and physiological parameters completely, the combination of NISS and APACHE II performs better than NISS, APACHE II, NGCS, NISS+NGCS, APACHE II +NGCS for predicting mortality in ICU severe trauma patients. It is needful to develop models that contain various types of accessible predictors (demographic variables, injury cause/mechanism, physiological and anatomical variables, etc.) as comprehensive as possible.

Validation of the APACHE IV model and its comparison with the APACHE II, SAPS 3, and Korean SAPS 3 models for the prediction of hospital mortality in a Korean surgical intensive care unit / 대한마취과학회지

BACKGROUND: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV model has not yet been validated in Korea. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of the APACHE IV with those of APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3, and Korean SAPS 3 in predicting hospital mortality in a surgical intensive care unit (SICU) population. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed electronic medical records for patients admitted to the SICU from March 2011 to February 2012 in a university hospital. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR, actual mortality predicted mortality) for the four models. RESULTS: The study included 1,314 patients. The hospital mortality rate was 3.3%. The discriminative powers of all models were similar and very reliable. The AUCs were 0.80 for APACHE IV, 0.85 for APACHE II, 0.86 for SAPS 3, and 0.86 for Korean SAPS 3. Hosmer and Lemeshow C and H statistics showed poor calibration for all of the models (P < 0.05). The SMRs of APACHE IV, APACHE II, SAPS 3, and Korean SAPS 3 were 0.21, 0.11 0.23, 0.34, and 0.25, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE IV revealed good discrimination but poor calibration. The overall discrimination and calibration of APACHE IV were similar to those of APACHE II, SAPS 3, and Korean SAPS 3 in this study. A high level of customization is required to improve calibration in this study setting.

The Analysis of Prognostic Factors in Patients with Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis Admitted to the Medical Intensive Care Unit / 대한구급학회지

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis usually resulted in admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) during hospitalization. When admitted to the ICU, the mortality was high. The aim of this study is to identify multiple prognostic factors for mortality and to analyze the significance of prognostic survival model with each scoring system in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis who was admitted to the ICU. METHODS: From January 2008 to December 2008, 60 consecutive patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis were admitted in the ICU and retrospectively reviewed. Prognostic models used were Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA). The predictive prognosis was analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: The median follow up period was 20 months, and ICU mortality was 17% (n = 10). A total of 24 patients (40%) died during the study period. The average survival of five prognostic models was related with the severity of the disease. All of the five systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate, according to the scores on admission, and the MELD-Na had the highest AUC (0.924). Multivariate analysis showed that bilirubin and albumin were significantly related to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The CPT, MELD, MELD-Na, APACHE II, and SOFA may predict the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. The MELD-Na could be a better prognostic predictor than other scoring systems.

Visfatin levels in patients with severe pneumonia / 世界急诊医学杂志（英文）

BACKGROUND: As a cytokine highly expressed in internal organs, visfatin could be used as a biomarker of systemic inflammation response for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, but few studies have reported the use of visfatin in severe pneumonia. The present study was undertaken to determine the plasma levels of visfatin in patients with severe pneumonia. METHODS: A total of 70 patients, including 40 patients with severe pneumonia (group A) and 30 patients with non severe pneumonia (group B) who had been admitted to the ICU from June 2009 to June 2010, were enrolled in this prospective study. And another 30 healthy physical examinees served as healthy controls (group C). Patients were excluded if they suffered from severe diseases of the heart, brain and kidney, cancers, autoimmune diseases, or received special treatment in the latest month. The plasma levels of visfatin, IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α were measured by ELISA, while the level of CRP was determined by immuneturbidimetry, and the routine blood test was performed. Blood gas analysis and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were performed in patients with pneumonia. Comparisons between the groups were conducted by Student's t test, ANOVA or nonparametric test. Correlation analysis was carried out by Pearson's correlation test or Spearman's rank-order correlation test. RESULTS: The plasma level of visfatin in group A was significantly higher than that in groups B and C (P<0.001), and the level of visfatin in group B was significantly higher than that in group C (P<0.001). The plasma level of visfatin was positively correlated with CRP, TNF-α, APACHE II and PMN％ in patients with severe pneumonia (rho=0.653, r=0.554, r=0.558, r=0.484, respectively, P<0.05 for all), while it was negatively correlated with PaO2 and PaO2/FiO2 (rho=?0.422, r=?0.543, respectively, P<0.05 for all). CONCLUSION: Visfatin may be involved in the systematic inflammation response in patients with severe pneumonia as a pro-inflammatory cytokine, and it is valuable in assessing the severity of pneumonia..

Effects of high-volume hemofiltration on alveolar-arterial oxygen exchange in patients with refractory septic shock / 世界急诊医学杂志（英文）

@#BACKGROUND: High-volume hemofiltration (HVHF) is technically possible in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients complicated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Continuous HVHF is expected to become a beneficial adjunct therapy for SAP complicated with MODS. In this study, we aimed to explore the effects of fluid resuscitation and HVHF on alveolar-arterial oxygen exchange, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in patients with refractory septic shock. METHODS: A total of 89 refractory septic shock patients, who were admitted to ICU, the Provincial Hospital affiliated to Shandong University from August 2006 to December 2009, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The patients were randomly divided into two groups: fluid resuscitation (group A, n=41), and fluid resuscitation plus high-volume hemofiltration (group B, n=48). The levels of O2 content of central venous blood (CcvO2), arterial oxygen content (CaO2), alveolar-arterial oxygen pressure difference P(A-a)DO2, ratio of arterial oxygen pressure/alveolar oxygen pressure (PaO2/PAO2), respiratory index (RI) and oxygenation index (OI) were determined. The oxygen exchange levels of the two groups were examined based on the arterial blood gas analysis at different times (0, 24, 72 hours and 7 days of treatment) in the two groups. The APACHE II score was calculated before and after 7-day treatment in the two groups. RESULTS: The levels of CcvO2, CaO2 on day 7 in group A were significantly lower than those in group B (CcvO2: 0.60±0.24 vs. 0.72±0.28, P<0.05; CaO2: 0.84±0.43 vs. 0.94±0.46, P<0.05). The level of oxygen extraction rate (O2ER) in group A on the 7th day was significantly higher than that in group B ( 28.7±2.4 vs. 21.7±3.4, P<0.01). The levels of P(A-a)DO2 and RI in group B on the 7th day were significantly lower than those in group A. The levels of PaO2/PAO2 and OI in group B on 7th day were significantly higher than those in group A (P<0.05 or P<0.01). The APACHE II score in the two groups reduced gradually after 7-day treatment, and the APACHE II score on the 7th day in group B was significantly lower than that in group A (8.2±3.8 vs. 17.2±6.8, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: HVHF combined with fluid resuscitation can improve alveolar- arterial-oxygen exchange, decrease the APACHE II score in patients with refractory septic shock, and thus it increases the survival rate of patients.