ABSTRACT
Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.
ABSTRACT
Background & objectives: The epidemiology of dengue fever (DF) is complex in the Indian subcontinent as all the four serotypes are circulating. This study reports observations on dengue cases from a virus diagnostic laboratory of a north Indian tertiary care hospital catering to areas in and around Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh. Methods: Serum samples were obtained from suspected cases of dengue referred to the virus diagnostic laboratory during 2011 to 2013, and detailed history was taken on a pre-structured datasheet. All samples were tested for anti-dengue virus (DV) IgM antibodies and DV-non structural protein 1 antigen (NS1Ag) by ELISA. NS1Ag positive samples were tested further by conventional RT-PCR for DV-RNA detection and serotyping. Results: Of the 4019 suspected patients of dengue, 886 (22%) showed laboratory evidence of dengue virus infection. Of these, 19, 17 and 27 per cent were positive in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. Children and adults were similarly affected by dengue in all the three years. Males were more commonly affected than females. The predominant DV serotype detected was DV-2, DV-1 and DV-3 in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. DV-4 serotype was not detected. About half the cases positive for DV infection, showed symptoms of dengue with warning signs/ severe dengue. A distinct seasonality with increase in number of dengue cases in the post monsoon period was seen. Interpretation & conclusions: Change in circulating serotype of dengue virus; a distinct adult dengue involvement; and a remarkable number of cases presenting with severe dengue manifestations are the main findings of this study.
ABSTRACT
Background & objectives: Dengue virus (DV) infection has emerged as a major health problem in north India. Here, we report the annual trend of dengue virus infection as seen in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, during 2008-2010. Methods: Blood samples from clinically suspected cases of dengue virus infection were collected and history was taken on structured clinical data sheet. All samples were tested for dengue IgM by antibody capture ELISA. Selected samples were tested by conventional RT-PCR for dengue virus RNA. Weather information was continuously recorded from website of world weather information service. Results: There was a gradual increase in number of dengue fever cases with increased occurrence in 2010. Cases referred in January - December 2008 were 398 (54.5% anti DV IgM positive), in January - December 2009 were 599 (51.9% anti DV IgM positive) and in January - December 2010 were 1602 (64.9% anti DV IgM positive). Serotypes circulating in years 2008, 2009 and 2010 were DV-2 & DV-3, DV -1, 2 & 3 and DV-1 and DV-2 respectively. There is no statistical significant correlation between weather data and increasing dengue positive cases. Interpretation & conclusions: Increased cases of dengue fever were seen in 2010, which was not correlated with any change in environmental factors. A change in circulating serotypes was noted.