Comparative studies on age and growth patterns of cultivated and wild Catla catla (Hamilton)

Catla catla (Hamilton) is one of the fastest growing Indian major carps (IMCs) with increasing market demand. Consistent demand and exploitation invites the attention of ichthyologists for its conservation strategies. Age and growth studies play a pivotal role for managing the fishery stocks in different water bodies. Here, we studied the age and growth patterns using opercula of both farm grown as well as the wild grown C. catla adopting standard methodologies. Wild specimens were caught from Harike wetland (Ramsar site) and the cultivated one from a farm at Dhudike in Punjab. High value of correlation coefficient ‘r’ 0.976 (wetland) and 0.983 (farm) reveals the strong relationship in total length and operculum radius of the fish. C. catla achieved average total length from wetland and farm, respectively at 1st (273.44 mm) 2nd (427.44 mm) 3rd (525.49 mm) 4th (624.52 mm) 5th (744.98 mm) 6th (813.62 mm) and 1st (282.1 mm) 2nd (463 mm) 3rd (601.7 mm) year of age of opercular bones study. The growth parameters such as, index of species average size (?h) 135.6 (wetland) and 200.6 (farm), growth constant (Clt) showed two growth phases from both localities i.e. sexual immaturity up to 2 years and sexual maturity afterwards. Whereas, growth characteristic (Cth) has revealed irregular growth pattern at wetland in comparison to growth of fish from farm. The results of this study concluded that the fish experienced more growth from the farm due to better and controlled conditions but, in wetland surrounding conditions were observed to be unfavourable for survival of the fish C. Catla.

Age and growth of Zapteryx brevirostris (Elasmobranchii: Rhinobatidae) in southern Brazil

Age and growth studies are fundamental to successful fisheries management. Zapteryx brevirostris (Müller & Henle, 1841) is distributed off the Brazilian continental shelf and this species is assessed as "Vulnerable" in the Red List of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Thus, the objective of this study was to present previously unknown information about the age and growth of Z. brevirostris that can be used for its management, conservation, and fisheries. A total of 162 specimens were sampled, with total lengths (TL) varying between 35.7 cm and 56 cm. The vertebrae were embedded in resin, sectioned in cuts with 0.5 mm thickness and the growth bands of the vertebrae were read under a light microscope. In the studied area, Z. brevirostris ages were estimated from 4 to 10 years according to vertebrae patterns. The species reaches its maximum asymptotic size (Linf) around 56 cm (56 cm for females and 50.37 cm for males). This is the first estimate of age and growth for a species of the Zapteryx genus, and the results support the hypothesis that this ray requires future management conservation, particularly due to its slow growth rate and consequent susceptibility to overexploitation.(AU)

Estudos de idade e crescimento são fundamentais para o sucesso da gestão pesqueira. Zapteryx brevirostris (Müller & Henle, 1841) distribui-se pela plataforma continental brasileira, sendo classificada como "Vulnerável" no livro vermelho da IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature). Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi apresentar informações previamente desconhecidas sobre a idade e o crescimento de Z. brevirostris que podem ser utilizados para sua gestão, conservação e pescas. No total foram amostrados 162 espécimes, com comprimento total (CT) variando de 35.7 cm a 56 cm. As vértebras foram incluídas em resina e seccionadas num corte com cerca de 0.5 mm de espessura, e as bandas de crescimento das vértebras foram lidas com microscópio de luz transmitida branca. Na área estudada, Z. brevirostris possui idades estimadas entre os 4 a 10 anos de idade, de acordo com seu padrão de vértebras. A espécie atinge seu Linf (comprimento máximo assintótico) em torno dos 56 cm (56 cm para fêmeas e 50.37 cm para machos). Essa é a primeira estimativa dos parâmetros de idade e crescimento para uma espécie do gênero Zapteryx, e os resultados obtidos corroboram a hipótese de que a espécie requer uma gestão de conservação adequada, devido sobretudo à sua lenta taxa de crescimento e consequente suscetibilidade à sobre-exploração.(AU)

Statistical estimations for Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Korea

Objective: To calculate the numbers of weekly infections and prevalence of malaria, and to predict future trend of malaria incidences in South Korea. Methods: Weekly incidences of malaria for 13 years from the period 2001-2013 in South Korea were analyzed. The back-calculation equations were used with incubation period distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson model was also used. The confidence intervals of the estimates were obtained by a bootstrap method. A regression model for time series of malaria incidences over 13 years was fitted by the non-linear least squares method, and used to predict futuretrend. Results: The estimated infection curve is narrower and more concentrated in the summer than in the incidence distribution. Infection started around the 19th week and was over around the 41st week. The maximum weekly infection 110 was obtained at the 29th week. The prevalence at the first week was around 496 persons, the minimum number was 366 at 22nd week, and the maximum prevalence was 648 at 34th week. Prevalence drops in late spring with people that falling ill and had had long incubation periods and rose in the summer with new infections. Our future forecast based on the regression model was that an increase at year 2014 compared to 2013 may reach a peak (at maximum about 70 weekly cases) at year 2015, with a decreasing trend after then. Conclusions: This work shows that back-calculation methods could work well in estimating the infection rates and the prevalence of malaria. The obtained results can be useful in establishing an efficient preventive program for malaria infection. The method presented here can be used in other countries where incidence data and incubation period are available.

Statistical estimations for Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Korea

OBJECTIVE@#To calculate the numbers of weekly infections and prevalence of malaria, and to predict future trend of malaria incidences in South Korea.@*METHODS@#Weekly incidences of malaria for 13 years from the period 2001-2013 in South Korea were analyzed. The back-calculation equations were used with incubation period distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson model was also used. The confidence intervals of the estimates were obtained by a bootstrap method. A regression model for time series of malaria incidences over 13 years was fitted by the non-linear least squares method, and used to predict futuretrend.@*RESULTS@#The estimated infection curve is narrower and more concentrated in the summer than in the incidence distribution. Infection started around the 19th week and was over around the 41st week. The maximum weekly infection 110 was obtained at the 29th week. The prevalence at the first week was around 496 persons, the minimum number was 366 at 22nd week, and the maximum prevalence was 648 at 34th week. Prevalence drops in late spring with people that falling ill and had had long incubation periods and rose in the summer with new infections. Our future forecast based on the regression model was that an increase at year 2014 compared to 2013 may reach a peak (at maximum about 70 weekly cases) at year 2015, with a decreasing trend after then.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This work shows that back-calculation methods could work well in estimating the infection rates and the prevalence of malaria. The obtained results can be useful in establishing an efficient preventive program for malaria infection. The method presented here can be used in other countries where incidence data and incubation period are available.

Statistical estimations forPlasmodium vivaxmalaria in South Korea

Objective:To calculate the numbers of weekly infections and prevalence of malaria, and to predict future trend of malaria incidences in South Korea.Methods:Weekly incidences of malaria for 13 years from the period 2001-2013 in South Korea were analyzed. The back-calculation equations were used with incubation period distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson model was also used. The confidence intervals of the estimates were obtained by a bootstrap method. A regression model for time series of malaria incidences over 13 years was fitted by the non-linear least squares method, and used to predict futuretrend. Results:The estimated infection curve is narrower and more concentrated in the summer than in the incidence distribution. Infection started around the 19th week and was over around the 41st week. The maximum weekly infection 110 was obtained at the 29th week. The prevalence at the first week was around 496 persons, the minimum number was 366 at 22nd week, and the maximum prevalence was 648 at 34th week. Prevalence drops in late spring with people that falling ill and had had long incubation periods and rose in the summer with new infections. Our future forecast based on the regression model was that an increase at year 2014 compared to 2013 may reach a peak (at maximum about 70 weekly cases) at year 2015, with a decreasing trend after then.Conclusions:This work shows that back-calculation methods could work well in estimating the infection rates and the prevalence of malaria. The obtained results can be useful in establishing an efficient preventive program for malaria infection. The method presented here can be used in other countries where incidence data and incubation period are available.

Length correction for early-juvenile Brazilian herring Sardinella janeiro (Eigenmann, 1894) after preservation in formalin, ethanol and freezing

This work aims to quantify the variation in total length and body mass for the early-juvenile Brazilian herring Sardinella janeiro and to determine total length and body mass correction equation to allow fresh measures to be calculated from preserved ones. Fishes were randomly assigned to one of five preservation methods (freezing at - 20º C, 2.5 percent and 5 percent formalin, 70 percent and 95 percent ethanol), and measured for total length (TL) and body mass (W) before preservation, and on days 5, 15, 30, and 60 after storage. Significant reductions in total length and body mass occurred during the first 5 days after preservation and continued to contract significantly at a lesser rate through 30 days in most methods. Exceptions were shown for body mass in freezing and 5 percent formalin, where the greatest losses occurred after 30 days of preservation. The degree of shrinkage for total length and body mass was very much dependent on fish size, with smaller specimens shrinking more than larger ones. The fresh total length and body mass can be back-calculated using equations that describe the relationship between fresh and preserved individuals after 60 days storage for all methods except for body mass in freezing.(AU)

Este trabalho objetivou quantificar a variação do comprimento total e massa corporal para pós-larvas de Sardinella janeiro e determinar as equações de correção para o cálculo do comprimento total e da massa corporal a partir de espécimes preservados. Os peixes foram submetidos aleatoriamente a cinco métodos de preservação (congelamento - 20º C, formalina 2,5 por cento e 5 por cento, álcool 70 por cento e 95 por cento), e medidos o comprimento total (CT) e pesado a massa corporal (P) antes da preservação, e 5, 15, 30 e 60 dias após a preservação. Foram observadas perdas significantes no comprimento total e na massa corporal durante os cinco primeiro dias após a preservação, prosseguindo em menor intensidade até o 30º dia na maioria dos métodos. Exceções foram observadas para a massa corporal em congelamento e formalina 5 por cento, com perdas ocorrendo mesmo depois de 30 dias de preservação. O grau de perdas para comprimento total e massa corporal foi significativamente dependente do tamanho dos peixes, com os menores indivíduos sofrendo as maiores perdas. O comprimento total e massa corporal de indivíduos frescos podem ser retro-calculados usando equações que descrevem a relação entre indivíduos frescos e após 60 dias de preservação para a maioria dos métodos, exceto para a massa corporal em congelamento.(AU)

Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea / 예방의학회지

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. METHODS: Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods RESULTS: The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were 708~1,426 in Weibull distribution and 918~1,980 in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was 16~25 in Weibull distribution and 13~26 in Gamma distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were 1.4~4.0 times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea. Further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.