Effect of entomopathogens on Africanized Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

ABSTRACT This study aimed to evaluate the effect of commercially used entomopathogens on Africanized Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae). Four bioassays were performed: 1) pulverized entomopathogens on A. mellifera; 2) entomopathogens sprayed on a smooth surface; 3) entomopathogens sprayed on soy leaves; and 4) entomopathogens mixed with candy paste (sugar syrup). Five treatments were prepared: sterile distilled water (control), distilled water sterilized with Tween® 80 (0.01%), and the commercial entomopathogens Metarhizium anisopliae E9 (1.0 × 109 conidia mL−1), Beauveria bassiana PL63 (1.0 × 108 conidia mL−1) and Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki HD-1 (3.0 × 108 spores mL−1). Each treatment consisted of five repetitions, with 20 workers per repetition, which were stored in a plastic box and, later, in a biological oxygen demand (B.O.D.) incubator (27 ± 2 ºC, RH of 60% ± 10%, 12-h photophase). The mortality of the workers was evaluated from 1 h to 240 h, and the data were analyzed using Bayesian inference. The workers killed by the ingestion of candy paste contaminated with the pathogens (products) were randomly separated and selected for the removal of the midgut. Each midgut was fixed in Bouin's solution and prepared for histology. B. bassiana was verified to reduce the survival of A. mellifera workers in all bioassays. Moreover, M. anisopliae reduced the survival of A. mellifera workers directly sprayed, on a smooth surface and mixed with candy. B. thuringiensis reduced A. mellifera survival on a smooth surface and mixed with candy paste. However, its effects were lower than that observed by B. bassiana. The treatments with the biological products did not induce morphometric alterations in the midgut of A. mellifera.

Comparison of Bayesian statistics and classical statistics in quantile regression analysis / 军事医学

Objective To compare the Bayesian statistics and the classical statistics in the quantile regression analysis in order to select a more effective method .Methods The large sample data was chosen , and the QUANTREG procedure in SAS was used for the classical statistics and the MCMC procedure in SAS for the Bayesian one , respectively .Using ten-fold cross-validation method , the goodness of fitting of the models was appraised in terms of the fitted effect based on the training dataset and the predicted effect based on the predictive dataset .Results In most cases, the indexes of the quantile regression models in the classical statistics were slightly worse than those of the Bayesian one .In the ten-fold cross-validation of the partial samples as a training dataset , the fitting effect of the lower quartile ( Q1 ) and upper quartile ( Q3 ) of the Bayesian statistics was better than that of the classical one .However , the median ( Q2 ) fitting effect of the Bayesian statistics was slightly worse than that of the classical one .As for the prediction effect , the Bayesian statistical quantile regression model was superior to the classic one .Conclusion To expect high accuracy , such as the predictive effects and fitting effects of each quantile , the Bayesian quantile regression analysis should be chosen .If the major concern is the fitting effect of the median , careful selection from the approaches mentioned above is needed .If time and energy are limited, and the sample size is large enough , the classic statistical quantile regression analysis is a good choice .

Application of Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling in describing the brucellosis infections / 中华流行病学杂志

Based on the number of brucellosis cases reported from the national infectious diseases reporting system in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2007, a model was developed. Theories of spatial statistics were used, together with knowledge on infectious disease epidemiology and the frame of Bayesian statistics, before the Bayesian spatio-temporal models were respectively set. The effects of space, time, space-time and the relative covariates were also considered. These models were applied to analyze the brucellosis distribution and time trend in Inner Mongolia during 2000-2007. The results of Bayesian spatio-temporal models was expressed by mapping of the disease and compared to the conventional statistical methods. Results showed that the Bayesian models, under consideration of space-time effect and the relative covariates (deviance information criterion, DIC=2388.000) ,seemed to be the best way to serve the purpose. The county-level spatial correlation of brucellosis epidemics was positive and quite strong in Inner Mongolia. However, the spatial correlation varied with time and the coefficients ranged from 0.968 to 0.973, having a weakening trend during 2000-2007. Types of region and number of stock (cattle and sheep) might be related to the brucellosis epidemics, and the effect on the number of cattle and sheep changed by year. Compared to conventional statistical methods, Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling could precisely estimate the incidence relative risk and was an important tool to analyze the epidemic distribution patterns of infectious diseases and to estimate the incidence relative risk.

Construção de tábuas de mortalidade de inválidos por meio de modelos estatísticos bayesianos / Construcción de tablas de mortalidad de inválidos por medio de modelos estadísticos bayesianos / Construction of life boards of invalids using Bayesian statistics

Este trabalho teve como objetivo a construção de tábuas de mortalidade de inválidos dos segurados de clientela urbana do Regime Geral da Previdência Social. Assumindo que o número de mortes em cada idade segue uma distribuição de Poisson, as taxas de mortalidade por idade simples foram graduadas por meio de métodos estatísticos bayesianos, pelo modelo paramétrico de Gompertz-Makehan, utilizando inferência estatística bayesiana. Foram construídas tábuas de mortalidade para homens e mulheres e intervalos de credibilidade para os parâmetros e componentes do modelo, bem como para as taxas de mortalidade e funções da tábua. Uma aplicação foi feita calculando-se uma anuidade e o passivo atuarial.

Este trabajo tuvo como objetivo la construcción de tablas de mortalidad de inválidos procedentes de clientela urbana asegurada con el régimen general de la Seguridad Social. Asumiendo que el número de muertes en cada edad sigue una distribución de Poisson, las tasas de mortalidad por edad simple se graduaron mediante métodos estadísticos bayesianos, por el modelo paramétrico de Gompertz-Makehan, utilizando la inferencia estadística bayesiana. Se construyeron tablas de mortalidad para hombres y mujeres e intervalos de credibilidad para los parámetros y componentes del modelo, así como para las tasas de mortalidad y funciones de la tabla. Una aplicación se realizó calculando una anualidad y el pasivo actuarial.

The objective of this article is to construct life tables of invalids among urban beneficiaries of the General Regime of the National Brazilian Social Security System. Assuming that the number of deaths in each table follows a Poisson distribution, the death rates by simple age were graduated through Bayesian statistical methods, by using the Gompertz-Makehan parametric model and using Bayesian statistical inferences. Life tables were constructed for death rates of men and women, and credibility intervals were set up for the parameters and components of the model, as well as for the death rates and functions of the board. An application was made by calculating an annuity and the actuarial liabilities.

Application of Excel in Bayesian Statistics of Bioequivalence / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE:To establish Bayesian statistics data processing method for the evaluation of bioequiavailability.METHODS:The procedures of the posterior probability calculation were simplified by means of the Excel-programmed double crossover designed Bayesian statistics analytical table for bioequiavailability.RESULTS:This method can be used as variance analysis and data processing of Bayesian statistics evalustion.CONCLUSION:The results are accurate and the application is convenient in this method.