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SUMMARY: Angiogenesis, a process by which new blood vessels are generated from pre-existing ones, is significantly compromised in tumor development, given that due to the nutritional need of tumor cells, pro-angiogenic signals will be generated to promote this process and thus receive the oxygen and nutrients necessary for its development, in addition to being a key escape route for tumor spread. Although there is currently an increase in the number of studies of various anti-angiogenic therapies that help reduce tumor progression, it is necessary to conduct a review of existing studies of therapeutic alternatives to demonstrate their importance.
La angiogénesis, proceso por el cual se generan nuevos vasos sanguíneos a partir de otros preexistentes, se encuentra comprometida de forma importante en el desarrollo tumoral, dado que por necesidad nutritiva de las células tumorales se generarán señales pro angiogénicas para promover este proceso y así recibir el oxígeno y los nutrientes necesarios para su desarrollo, además de ser una ruta de escape clave para la diseminación tumoral. Si bien, actualmente existe un aumento en la cantidad de estudios de diversas terapias anti angiogénicas que ayudan a reducir el avance tumoral, es necesario realizar una revisión de los estudios existentes de alternativas terapéuticas para demostrar su importancia.
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Humans , Angiogenesis Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Celecoxib/therapeutic use , Neoplasms/drug therapy , Neovascularization, Pathologic/drug therapy , Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A/antagonists & inhibitors , Cyclooxygenase 2 Inhibitors , Neoplasms/pathology , Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic useABSTRACT
Background As the population ages, there has been a growing focus on the decline in fertility. Research has identified age and fertility history as the primary influencing factors. Nevertheless, there is a deficiency in fundamental data regarding the fertility status among different industries. Objective To investigate the fertility status and influencing factors among female workers aged 22-35 years in different industries. Methods From July 2020 to February 2021, a cross-sectional survey was conducted using a staged sampling approach. This survey specifically targeted 22-35-year-old married female workers with a history of pregnancy in industries such as education, healthcare, finance, and telecommunications, totaling 22903 participants. The survey encompassed industry, demographic characteristics, pregnancy history, time to pregnancy (TTP), and other influencing factors. The influencing factors of decline in fertility were identified by chi-square test and Cox proportional hazards regression. Subsequent industry-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compared fertility decline patterns across a spectrum of industries after selected influencing factors were adjusted. Results Among the 22903 respondents, 19194 valid questionnaires were collected, with a valid recovery rate of 83.8%. The cumulative pregnancy rates (CRP) of 1-6 months and 1-12 months for the 22-35-year-old female workers were 67.23% and 91.33% respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that region, age, education level, personal annual income, housework time, coping style, gravidity, parity, and spontaneous abortion were influencing factors of fertility decline (P<0.05). Female workers with ≥3 gravidities and ≥2 spontaneous abortions had a higher risk of fertility decline, with hazard ratios (HR) and associated 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 0.633 (0.582, 0.688) and 0.785 (0.670, 0.921) respectively (P<0.01). Compared to the education industry, the healthcare and finance industries showed a higher risk of fertility decline, with HR (95%CI) values of 0.876 (0.834, 0.920) and 0.909 (0.866, 0.954), respectively (P<0.05). These two HR (95%CI) values remained statistically significant [0.899 (0.852, 0.948) and 0.882 (0.833, 0.934) respectively, P<0.05)] after further adjustment with nine influencing factors such as region and age. Conclusion Regions, age, education level, personal annual income, housework time, coping style, pregnancy and childbirth times, and natural abortion times are influencing factors of fertility decline in female workers. Compared to the education industry, the healthcare and finance industries have a higher risk of declining fertility.
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Objective To analyze the combined effect of body mass index(BMI)and age with cancer occurrence among a hypertensive population in Minhang District,Shanghai.Methods Participants of this study were 212 394 hypertensive patients without cancer in Minhang District,Shanghai,registered in the electronic health information system from 2007 to 2015.Age and BMI were included as smoothing functions in the generalized additive Cox proportional risk model.The bivariate response model was constructed to visualize results using surface plots and to comprehensively analyze the association of BMI and age with the risk of cancer occurrence.Results A total of 22 141 participants developed cancer by Dec 31,2018.The association between age and the risk of cancer incidence showed an overall linear trend while the association between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence showed an overall"U"shape.BMI at about 26 kg/m2 showed the lowest risk of cancer incidence.The risk of cancer occurrence increased with increasing age in people with different BMIs.The associations between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence were different at different age groups:there was no significant association between BMI and the risk of cancer incidence in the young people(20-44 years).While in the middle-aged and older people aged over 45 years,BMI was associated with the risk of cancer incidence in a"U"shape.The lowest risk of cancer incidence was around the BMI of 26 kg/m2.Conclusion BMI among the population with hypertension should be controlled in a reasonable range,especially in the middle-aged and older population,to prevent cancer occurrence.
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Background Lifestyle intervention or dietary modification has been the cornerstone of primary prevention and management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Objective To investigate the associations of plant foods intake with the risk of incident T2D. Methods Based on a general population cohort, the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank (SSACB), dietary data were collected for each participant in Songjiang District of Shanghai at enrollment with a validated Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ), and plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), and unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI) were calculated. Incident T2D cases were identified according to physician diagnosis (fasting blood glucose ≥7.0 mmol·L−1, or 2 h value during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test ≥11.1 mmol·L−1, or glycosylated hemoglobin ≥6.5%, or with typical symptoms of hyperglycemia or hyperglycemic crisis, accompanied by a random plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol·L−1) or medication records, obtained from the electronic information system for residents' medical insurance. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines were used to evaluate the associations of foods from different sources with the risk of incident T2D. Results A total of 29016 participants [age at baseline (55.3±11.6) years] with a median follow-up duration of 5.688 years until 21 September 2022 were included. Plant foods (unprocessed) intake was associated with a decreased risk of incident T2D [HR (95%CI): 0.983 (0.969, 0.998)]. In comparison with participants in the highest quartile (≥859.3 g) of plant foods daily intake, the risk of incident T2D for those in the lowest quartile (<500.9 g) was higher [HR (95%CI): 1.250 (1.012, 1.544)]. No significant associations of animal foods [HR (95%CI): 1.006 (0.987, 1.026)] and processed foods [HR (95%CI): 0.978 (0.944, 1.014)] intakes were found with the risk of incident T2D. Replacing 50 g animal foods [HR (95%CI): 0.982 (0.968, 0.996)] or processed foods [HR (95%CI): 0.983 (0.969, 0.998)] with 50 g plant foods was associated with significantly decreased risks of incident T2D. Additionally, non-linear associations of PDI (Pnonlinear=0.023) and hPDI (Pnonlinear=0.016) with the risk of incident T2D were found in the SSACB. Conclusion Plant foods intake, especially healthful plant foods intake, is significantly associated with a decreased risk of incident T2D.
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Objective:To investigate the diagnostic value of ultrasound elastography combined with serum microRNA-26b-5p(miR-26b-5p)and cyclooxygenase-2(COX-2)detection for early hysteromyoma.Methods:A total of 228 patients with suspected early hysteromyoma who were diagnosed in the 90th Hospital of the Joint Service Support Center from October 2020 to September 2022 were selected as the observation objects.Based on the results of pathological section examination as the"gold standard",all subjects were divided into a positive group(124 cases)and a negative group(104 cases),and ultrasound elasticity imaging examination was performed in both groups.The expression level of miR-26b-5p in serum was detected by real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction(Rt-PCR),and the level of serum COX-2 was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA),and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was applied to analyze the diagnostic values of serum miR-26b-5p and COX-2 for hysteromyoma.The four tables were applied to analyze the diagnostic values of ultrasound elastography and the combination of ultrasound elastography,serum miR-26b-5p and COX-2 for hysteromyoma.Results:The results of pathological examination indicated that 124 cases of 228 patients were positive result of hysteromyoma and 104 cases were negative result.The results of ultrasound elastography showed that 117 cases were positive,and 111 cases were negative,and the diagnostic sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of ultrasound elastography detection were respectively 74.19%,75.96%and 75.00%.Serum miR-26b-5p level of positive group was significantly lower than that of negative group,while the COX-2 level of positive group was significantly higher than that of negative group,and the differences of them between the two groups were statistically significant(t=4.519,5.601,P<0.05),respectively.The area under curve(AUC)value of ROC curve,sensitivity,specificity and the best cut-off value of serum miR-26b-5p were respectively 0.749,95.97%,46.15%and 1.10 in diagnosing hysteromyoma.The above indicators of serum COX-2 were respectively 0.835,66.13%,84.62%and 40.58 mg/L in diagnosing hysteromyoma.The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of ultrasound elastography combined with serum miR-26b-5p and COX-2 were respectively 93.55%,86.54%and 90.35%,the differences were statistically significant(x2=23.158,17.169,P<0.05),respectively.Conclusion:Ultrasound elastography combined with serum miR-26b-5p and COX-2 has higher effectiveness in diagnosing the early hysteromyoma.
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Objective:To explore the related prognostic factors in patients with aortic dissection (AD) after surgery or interventional therapy, and to construct a multi-factor Cox regression analysis nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of patients diagnosed with AD in the emergency department of Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University of Shandong Province from January 2019 to December 2021 were collected to analyze retrospectively. The survival time was followed up, the survival curve was drawn by Kaplan-Meier method, the difference of survival rate among different Stanford types was tested by Log-Rank test, and Cox regression univariate and multivariate survival analysis was used to screen the prognostic factors. According to the results of multivariate analysis, the death risk nomogram model after AD was established, the differentiation of the model was evaluated by C-index, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by calibration curve, and the clinical benefit of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).Results:A total of 256 patients with AD were included, the mortality rate was 4.45% (37/256), and the overall survival rates at 3 months, 6 months and 12 months after operation were 90.23%, 87.50% and 85.55%, respectively. There was no significant difference in postoperative survival rate among AD patients with different Stanford types (χ 2=2.30, P=0.13). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that history of hypertension ( HR=3.791, 95% CI 1.150-12.501, P=0.029), number of branch vessels involved ( HR=1.210, 95% CI 1.029-1.422, P=0.021), preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ( HR=0.936, 95% CI 0.880-0.996, P=0.038) and perioperative complications ( HR=4.024, 95% CI 1.839-8.807, P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors in patients with AD. Furthermore, the predictive nomogram model of 3-month, 6-month and 12-month survival rate in patients with AD was constructed, and the C-index was 0.778. The calibration curve indicated that the accuracy of the model was good, and the clinical benefit of the DCA model was good. Conclusions:Hypertension history, the number of branch vessels involved, preoperative LVEF and perioperative complications are independent risk factors of postoperative death in patients with AD. The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors can be used to evaluate the postoperative survival of patients with AD.
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Objective:To summarize the clinical characteristics and factors that may affect the flare of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods:A total of 300 patients with SLE who were treated with standard treatment in the outpatient clinic of the department of rheumatology and immunology of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University of PLA, were enrolled, and the patients were divided into 24 patients in the complete response group, 40 cases in the no response group, 192 cases in the treatment response group, and 44 cases in the low disease activity group according to the response to treatment. The differences in clinical characteristics and survival rates between the groups were compared and analyzed. Comparisons of count data were made using analysis of variance (ANOVA), comparisons of measurement data were made using the chi-square test or the Fisher′s ecact test, and survival rates were expressed as Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis was adapted to explore risk factors for flare in these patients.Results:A total of 300 patients were followed. With a median follow-up time of 18 (1, 36) months, a total of 42 patients experienced flare. The clinical characteristics of the four groups were compared, and there were significant differences in age ( F=4.39, P=0.005), the presence of lupus nephritis ( χ2=12.66, P=0.005), hemoglobin level ( F=2.73, P=0.044), NLR level( F=3.88, P=0.010), cystatin C level( F=3.11, P=0.027), anti-RNP antibody ( χ2=12.04, P=0.007), anti-Sm antibody ( χ2=8.33, P=0.040), anti-SSB antibody ( P=0.014), anti-nucleosome antibody ( P=0.014), and anti-ribosomal P protein antibody ( χ2=11.83, P=0.008). There was no significant difference in survival between the four groups. Cox analysis showed that the combination of other autoimmune diseases [ HR(95%CI)=3.23(1.58, 6.57), P=0.001], anti-Sm antibody [ HR(95%CI)=2.15(1.04, 4.43), P=0.038], and anti-RNP antibody [ HR(95%CI)=2.54(1.13, 5.68), P=0.023] were risk factors for flare in patients with SLE who could reach the treatment target. Conclusion:Patients with SLE with different treatment responses have different clinical features, and all treatment can significantly improve the recurrence rate no matter what level of response to treatment. Patients concurrent with other autoimmune diseases, positive anti-Sm antibodies, and positive anti-RNP antibodies are at highrisk of flare.
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Objective To explore the risk factors for the occurrence of hypertension in middle-aged and elderly residents in China using the Cox regression analysis model and decision tree model, and compare the differences between the two methods. Methods The 2011-2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study data were used. The study investigated the risk factors for hypertension using both a multivariate Cox regression model and a decision tree model. Results The results showed that the incidence rate of hypertension between 2011-2015 was 22.79%. Both the Cox regression model and decision tree model identified age, education level, body mass index, and diabetes as risk factors for hypertension. The Cox regression model also identified drinking status as a risk factor, while the decision tree model identified gender and marital status as additional risk factors. The area under the curve (AUC) suggested that the Cox regression model and decision tree model had comparable ability to predict hypertension. Conclusions The risk factors for hypertension include gender, age, education level, marital status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and history of diabetes. The effectiveness of the hypertension prediction model established based on Cox regression model and decision tree model results is not different.
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ABSTRACT BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to assess the bioequivalence between two 200 mg celecoxib hard capsule formulations administered to healthy male and female participants under fasting conditions with the aim of providing an alternative pharmaceutical product to the reference drug, Celebra®. METHODS: A randomized, open label, single dose, 2x2 crossover trial was conducted with 60 adult healthy subjects under fasting conditions comparing single doses of two celecoxib hard capsules formulation. Pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated following the determination of drugs concentrations in human plasma using a validated liquid chromatography with a tandem mass spectrometer detector method (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS: Statistical analysis provided geometric mean of test/reference ratio, confidence intervals, intra-subject variation coefficient and power of the test to the pharmacokinetic parameters Cmax, AUC0-t, and AUC0-∞. Confidence intervals for the geometric mean (90% CI) of the test/reference drugs for celecoxib were 98.26 to 122.75% for Cmax, 100.27% to 110.78% for AUC0-t, and 96.87% to 110.29% for AUC0-∞. The power of the test found was 95.09% for Cmax, 100.00% for AUC0-t, and 99.99% for AUC0-∞. CONCLUSION: The formulations met the Brazilian standards for interchangeability, as the confidence intervals for Cmax and AUC0-t ratios are within the range of 80% to 125%, thus meeting the requirements of the legislation during market registration. The researched product was approved by the regulatory authorities and became a commercially competitive option to the reference product for the Brazilian population.
RESUMO JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a bioequivalência entre duas formulações de cápsulas duras de celecoxibe de 200 mg administradas a participantes saudáveis do sexo masculino e feminino em condições de jejum com o objetivo de fornecer um produto farmacêutico alternativo ao fármaco de referência, Celebra®. MÉTODOS: Estudo randomizado, aberto, de dose única e cruzado 2x2. Foi conduzido com 60 indivíduos adultos saudáveis em condições de jejum, comparando doses únicas de duas formulações de cápsulas duras de celecoxibe. Os parâmetros farmacocinéticos foram calculados após a determinação das concentrações dos fármacos no plasma humano usando uma cromatografia líquida validada com um método detector de espectrômetro de massa em tandem (LC-MS/MS). RESULTADOS: A análise estatística forneceu a média geométrica da razão teste/referência, os intervalos de confiança, o coeficiente de variação intra-sujeito e o poder do teste para os parâmetros farmacocinéticos Cmáx, AUC0-t e AUC0-∞. Os intervalos de confiança para a média geométrica (IC 90%) dos fármacos teste/referência para o celecoxibe foram 98,26 a 122,75% para Cmáx, 100,27% a 110,78% para AUC0-t e 96,87% a 110,29% para AUC0-∞. O poder do teste encontrado foi de 95,09% para Cmáx, 100,00% para AUC0-t e 99,99% para AUC0-∞. CONCLUSÃO: As formulações atenderam aos padrões brasileiros de intercambialidade, pois os intervalos de confiança para as razões Cmáx e AUC0-t estão dentro da faixa de 80% a 125%, atendendo, assim, às exigências da legislação para o registro no mercado. O produto pesquisado foi aprovado pelas autoridades regulatórias e tornou-se uma opção comercialmente competitiva ao produto de referência para a população brasileira.
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ObjectiveTo observe the glucose-lowering， insulin resistance-improving， and anti-inflammatory effects of flavonoids from mulberry leaves （FML） and explore their underlying mechanism. MethodMale db/db mice aged 6-7 weeks were randomly divided into a model group， a high-dose FML group （1.00 g·kg·d-1）， and a low-dose FML group （0.50 g·kg-1·d-1）. C57BL mice of the same age were assigned to the normal group. After six weeks of intervention， fasting blood glucose （FBG）， serum fasting insulin levels （Fins）， interleukin-6 （IL-6）， tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α）， free fatty acid （FFA）， blood creatinine （SCr）， blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， and aspartate aminotransferase （AST） levels were measured， and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance （HOMA-IR） was calculated. Superoxide dismutase （SOD）， glutathione peroxidase （GSH-Px）， and catalase activities in the liver were measured. Morphological changes in the liver were assessed by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. The protein expression of cyclooxygenase-2 （COX-2）， inducible nitric oxide synthase （iNOS）， and nuclear factor-κB （NF-κB） in the liver was detected by Western blot. ResultCompared with the model group， the high-dose and low-dose FML groups showed significant reductions in FBG， Fins， HOMA-IR， IL-6， TNF-α， and FFA levels （P<0.05， P<0.01）， and increased levels of SOD， GSH-Px， and catalase in the liver （P<0.05， P<0.01）. HE staining of the liver in the FML groups showed improved arrangement of hepatocytes， reduced inflammatory cell infiltration， and alleviated cellular steatosis compared with the model group. The protein expression of COX-2， iNOS， and NF-κB in the liver significantly decreased in the FML groups as compared with that in the model group （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionFML have glucose-lowering and insulin resistance-improving effect， which may be attributed to their regulation of the NF-κB pathway in the liver of diabetic mice， leading to the suppression of the release of COX-2， iNOS， and inflammatory cytokines， thereby improving the inflammatory state.
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@#Abstract: Objective To establish a rapid detection assay based on fluorescence recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) targeting Necator americanus eggs, and to evaluate its efficacy, providing technical support for rapid detection of Necator americanus in fecal samples. Methods The fluorescence RPA primers and probe were designed based on the cox1 gene of Necator americanus and then screened the optimal combination to develop the assay. The genomic DNA of Necator americanus eggs was diluted to 7 concentration gradients including 100 pg/µL, 10 pg/µL, 1 pg/µL, 100 fg/µL, 10 fg/µL, 1 fg/µL, 0.1 fg/µL, to determine the detection limit of the assay. The specificity of the assay was demonstrated by detected genomic DNA from Schistosoma japonicum, Ascaris lumbricoides, Clonorchis sinensis and Fasciola hepatica. A total of 44 fecal samples were collected and DNA extraction was performed, and the modified Kato-Katz method, semi-nest PCR method, and fluorescent RPA method were simultaneously used for detection to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity. Results The established fluorescence RPA assay can specifically amplify a fragment of 194 bp of the Necator americanus cox1 gene within 20 min, with a detection limit of 10 fg/µL. There was no cross-reactivity with Schistosoma japonicum, Ascaris lumbricoides, Clonorchis sinensis, Fasciola hepatica after specificity validation. In 44 fecal samples, 27 positive samples were detected by the fluorescence RPA assay, and 26 positive samples were detected by both the Kato-Katz and the semi-nested PCR. The fluorescence curve of sample number 1 was slightly higher than the negative control in the later stage of the reaction, but did not show a similar trend to the positive control, and was therefore judged to be a suspected negative sample. Compared with the Kato-Katz method and the semi-nest PCR method, The sensitivity of the fluorescent RPA method were 100.00% and the specificity were 94.44%, and the consistency of the detection results was good (Kappa=0.953>0.75). Conclusions The assay based on the fluorescence RPA is an efficient, sensitive and specific technique for detecting Necator americanus and it can be applied for surveillance and early warning of hookworm infection.
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OBJECTIVE@#To observe the effects of moxibustion at "Baihui" (GV 20) and "Dazhui" (GV 14) at different time points on the serum level of β-endorphin (β-EP), substance P (SP) and expression of interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) protein in brainstem in rats with migraine, and to explore the effect and mechanism of moxibustion in preventing and treating migraine.@*METHODS@#Forty male SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group, a model group, a prevention+treatment (PT) group and a treatment group, 10 rats in each group. Except the blank group, the rats in the remaining groups were injected with nitroglycerin subcutaneously to prepare migraine model. The rats in the PT group were treated with moxibustion 7 days before modeling (once a day) and 30 min after modeling, while the rats in the treatment group were treated with moxibustion 30 min after modeling. The "Baihui" (GV 20) and "Dazhui" (GV 14) were taken for 30 minutes each time. The behavioral scores in each group were observed before and after modeling. After intervention, ELISA method was used to detect the serum level of β-EP and SP; the immunohistochemistry method was used to detect the number of positive cells of IL-1β in brainstem; the Western blot method was used to detect the expression of COX-2 protein in brainstem.@*RESULTS@#Compared with the blank group, the behavioral scores in the model group were increased 0-30 min, 60-90 min and 90-120 min after modeling (P<0.01); compared with the model group, in the treatment group and the PT group, the behavioral scores were decreased 60-90 min and 90-120 min after modeling (P<0.01). Compared with the blank group, in the model group, the serum level of β-EP was decreased (P<0.01), while the serum level of SP, the number of positive cells of IL-1β in brainstem and the expression of COX-2 protein were increased (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, in the PT group and and the treatment group, the serum level of β-EP was increased (P<0.01), while the serum level of SP, the number of positive cells of IL-1β and the expression of COX-2 protein in brainstem were decreased (P<0.01, P<0.05). Compared with the treatment group, in the PT group, the serum level of β-EP was increased and COX-2 protein expression was decreased (P<0.05).@*CONCLUSION@#Moxibustion could effectively relieve migraine. The mechanism may be related to reduce the serum level of SP, IL-1β and COX-2 protein expression in brainstem, and increase the serum level of β-EP, and the optimal effect is observed in the PT group.
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Rats , Male , Animals , Moxibustion , Rats, Sprague-Dawley , Cyclooxygenase 2 , beta-Endorphin , Substance P , Interleukin-1beta , Migraine Disorders , Brain StemABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE@#To compare the predictive ability of two extended Cox models in nonlinear survival data analysis.@*METHODS@#Through Monte Carlo simulation and empirical study and with the conventional Cox Proportional Hazards model and Random Survival Forests as the reference models, we compared restricted cubic spline Cox model (Cox_RCS) and DeepSurv neural network Cox model (Cox_DNN) for their prediction ability in nonlinear survival data analysis. Concordance index was used to evaluate the differentiation of the prediction results (a larger concordance index indicates a better prediction ability of the model). Integrated Brier Score was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the prediction (a smaller index indicates a better prediction ability).@*RESULTS@#For data that met requirement of the proportion risk, the Cox_RCS model had the best prediction ability regardless of the sample size or deletion rate. For data that failed to meet the proportion risk, the prediction ability of Cox_DNN was optimal for a large sample size (≥500) with a low deletion (< 40%); the prediction ability of Cox_RCS was superior to those of other models in all other scenarios. For example data, the Cox_RCS model showed the best performance.@*CONCLUSION@#In analysis of nonlinear low maintenance data, Cox_RCS and Cox_DNN have their respective advantages and disadvantages in prediction. The conventional survival analysis methods are not inferior to machine learning or deep learning methods under certain conditions.
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Proportional Hazards Models , Survival Analysis , Calibration , Computer Simulation , Data AnalysisABSTRACT
【Objective】 To explore the clinical characteristics and risk factors of renal function deterioration in children with renal dysplasia and chronic kidney disease (CKD), so as to provide a basis for the diagnosis, treatment, and management. 【Methods】 The clinical data of children with renal dysplasia complicated with CKD treated in the Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University during 2012 and 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including the gender, age of diagnosis, growth index, concomitant malformation and complications. According to the diagnostic criteria and staging standard of KDIGO2020 guidelines, patients with disease deteriorated to CKD stage 4-5 were enrolled into the regression group. Factors affecting the deterioration of renal function were determined with Cox regression analysis. 【Results】 A total of 122 children were involved, including 66 (54.1%) with CKD stag 4-5. There were more boys than girls. Bilateral and unilateral renal dysplasia occurred in 88 (72.13%) and 34 (27.87%) cases, respectively, and 64 (52.46%) cases were complicated with other urinary diseases. There were significant differences in weight, height and body mass index (BMI) among patients with CKD stage 1-5 (P<0.01). The age of onset of CKD <10 years, BMI lower than the 3rd percentile of the same sex and age, bilateral renal dysplasia, and one or more complications of congenital renal and urinary tract abnormalities (CAKUT) were the risk factors of deterioration of renal function (P<0.05). 【Conclusion】 Renal dysplasia complicated with CKD are more common in boys, with high incidence of bilateral renal dysplasia. Bilateral renal dysplasia, age of onset of CKD <10 years, BMI lower than 3% and complications are important influencing factors of renal dysplasia in children with CKD.
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This study aimed to investigate the intervention effect and mechanism of Xiaoyao Kangai Jieyu Recipe(XKJR) on hip-pocampal microglia and neuronal damage in mice with breast cancer related depression. The mouse model of breast cancer related depression was established by inoculation of 4T1 breast cancer cells in axilla and subcutaneous injection of corticosterone(30 mg·kg~(-1)). The successfully modeled mice were randomly divided into a model group, a positive drug group(capecitabine 60 mg·kg~(-1)+fluoxetine 19.5 mg·kg~(-1)), and XKJR group(19.5 mg·kg~(-1) crude drug), with 6 in each group. Another 6 normal mice were taken as a normal group. The administration groups were given corresponding drugs by gavage, while the normal and model groups were given an equal volume of distilled water, once a day for 21 consecutive days. The depressive behavior of mice was assessed by glucose consumption test, open field test and novelty-suppressed feeding test. Hematoxylin and eosin(HE) staining and tumor suppression rate were used to evaluate the changes of axillary tumors. The mRNA expressions and the relative protein expressions of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-18(IL-18), cyclooxyganese-2(COX-2) and glutamyl-prolyl-tRNA synthetase(EPRs) in the hippocampus of mice were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR) and immunohistochemistry, respectively. Immunofluorescence was performed to detect the mean fluorescence intensity of CD11b, a marker of hippocampal microglia activation. Nissler staining and transmission electron microscopy were employed to observe the morphological changes and the ultramorphological changes of hippocampal neurons, respectively. The experimental results indicated that compared with the normal group, the model group had reduced glucose consumption and lowered number of total activities in open field test(P<0.05, P<0.01), prolonged first feeding latency in no-velty-suppressed feeding test(P<0.01), and significant depression-like behavior; the contents of IL-1β, IL-18, COX-2, and EPRs in hippocampus were increased(P<0.05, P<0.01), with hippocampal microglia activation and obvious neuronal damage. Compared with the model group, the positive drug group and the XKJR group presented an improvement in depressive behaviors, a decrease in the contents of IL-1β, IL-18, COX-2 and EPRs in hippocampus, and an alleviation in the activation of hippocampal microglia and neuronal damage; the tumor suppression rates of positive drug and XKJR were 40.32% and 48.83%, respectively, suggesting a lower tumor growth rate than that of the model group. In summary, XKJR may improve hippocampal microglia activation and neuronal damage in mice with breast cancer related depression through activating COX signaling pathway.
Subject(s)
Mice , Animals , Depression/genetics , Interleukin-18 , Cyclooxygenase 2/genetics , Hippocampus , Glucose , NeoplasmsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the relationship between stress glucose elevation and the risk of 28 d all-cause mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and to compare the predictive efficacy of different stress glucose elevation indicators.@*METHODS@#ICU patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Ⅳ (MIMIC-Ⅳ) database were used as the study subjects, and the stress glucose elevation indicators were divided into Q1 (0-25%), Q2 (>25%- 75%), and Q3 (>75%-100%) groups, with whether death occurred in the ICU and the duration of treatment in the ICU as outcome variables, and demographic characteristics, laboratory indicators, and comorbidities as covariates, Cox regression and restricted cubic splines were used to explore the association between stress glucose elevation and the risk of 28 d all-cause death in ICU patients; and subject work characteristics [receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area under curve (AUC)] were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of different stress glucose elevation indicators, The stress hyperglycemia indexes included: stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR1, SHR2), glucose gap (GG); and the stress hyperglycemia index was further incorporated into the Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) to investigate the predictive efficacy of the improved scores: the AUC was used to assess the score discrimination, and the larger the AUC indicated, the better score discrimination. The Brier score was used to evaluate the calibration of the score, and a smaller Brier score indicated a better calibration of the score.@*RESULTS@#A total of 5 249 ICU patients were included, of whom 7.56% occurred in ICU death. Cox regression analysis after adjusting for confounders showed that the HR (95%CI) for 28 d all-cause mortality in the ICU patients was 1.545 (1.077-2.217), 1.602 (1.142-2.249) and 1.442 (1.001-2.061) for the highest group Q3 compared with the lowest group Q1 for SHR1, SHR2 and GG, respectively, and The risk of death in the ICU patients increased progressively with increasing indicators of stressful blood glucose elevation (Ptrend < 0.05). Restricted cubic spline analysis showed a linear relationship between SHR and the 28 d all-cause mortality risk (P>0.05). the AUC of SHR2 and GG was significantly higher than that of SHR1: AUCSHR2=0.691 (95%CI: 0.661-0.720), AUCGG=0.685 (95%CI: 0.655-0.714), and AUCSHR1=0.680 (95%CI: 0.650-0.709), P < 0.05. The inclusion of SHR2 in the OASIS scores significantly improved the discrimination and calibration of the scores: AUCOASIS=0.820 (95%CI: 0.791-0.848), AUCOASIS+SHR2=0.832 (95%CI: 0.804-0.859), P < 0.05; Brier scoreOASIS=0.071, Brier scoreOASIS+SHR2=0.069.@*CONCLUSION@#Stressful glucose elevation is strongly associated with 28 d all-cause mortality risk in ICU patients and may inform clinical management and decision making in intensive care patients.
Subject(s)
Humans , Intensive Care Units , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Critical Care , ROC Curve , Hyperglycemia , GlucoseABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE@#To compare the performance of machine learning models and traditional Cox regression model in predicting postoperative outcomes of patients with esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG).@*METHODS@#This study was conducted among 203 AEG patients with complete clinical and follow-up data, who were treated in our hospital between September, 2015 and October, 2020. The clinicopathological data of the patients were processed for analysis using R language package and divided into training and validation datasets at the ratio of 3:1. The Cox proportional hazards regression model and 4 machine learning models were constructed for analyzing the datasets. ROC curves, calibration curves and clinical decision curves (DCA) were plotted. Internal validation of the machine learning models was performed to assess their predictive efficacy. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), and the model fitting was assessed using the calibration curve.@*RESULTS@#For predicting 3-year survival based on the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.870 for Cox proportional hazard regression model, 0.901 for eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), 0.791 for random forest, 0.832 for support vector machine, and 0.725 for multilayer perceptron; For predicting 5-year survival, the AUCs of these models were 0.915, 0.916, 0.758, 0.905, and 0.737, respectively. For internal validation, the AUCs of the 4 machine learning models decreased in the order of XGBoost (0.818), random forest (0.758), support vector machine (0.0.804), and multilayer perceptron (0.745).@*CONCLUSION@#The machine learning models show better predictive efficacy for survival outcomes of patients with AEG than Cox proportional hazard regression model, especially when proportional odds assumption or linear regression models are not applicable. XGBoost models have better performance than the other machine learning models, and the multi-layer perception model may have poor fitting results for a limited data volume.
Subject(s)
Humans , Adenocarcinoma , Prognosis , Machine Learning , Esophagogastric JunctionABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the risk factors related to the prognosis of patients with sepsis in intensive care unit (ICU), construct a nomogram model, and verify its predictive efficacy.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ 0.4 [MIMIC-Ⅳ (version 2.0)]. The information of 6 500 patients with sepsis who meet the diagnostic criteria of Sepsis-3 were collected, including demography characteristics, complications, laboratory indicators within 24 hours after ICU admission, and final outcome. Using a simple random sampling method, the patients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) was used to explore whether there was a linear relationship between each variable and the prognosis, and the nonlinear variables were truncated into categorical variables. All variables were screened by LASSO regression and included in multivariate Cox regression analysis to analyze the death risk factors in ICU patients with sepsis, and construct a nomograph. The consistency index, calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) were used to evaluate the prediction efficiency of nomogram model. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to validate the clinical value of the model and its impact on actual decision-making.Results:Among 6 500 patients with sepsis, 4 551 were in the training set and 1 949 were in the validation set. The 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality in the training set were 27.73% (1?262/4?551), 34.76% (1?582/4?551), and 42.98% (1?956/4?551), respectively, those in the validation set were 27.24% (531/1?949), 33.91% (661/1?949), and 42.23% (823/1?949), respectively. Both in training set and the validation set, compared with the final survival patients, the death patients were older, and had higher sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and simplified acute physiology scoreⅡ (SAPSⅡ), more comorbidities, less urine output, and more use of vasoactive drugs, kidney replacement therapy, and mechanical ventilation. By RCS analysis, the variables with potential nonlinear correlation with the prognosis risk of septic patients were transformed into categorical variable. The variables screened by LASSO regression were enrolled in the multivariate Cox regression model. The results showed that age [hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.021, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.018-1.024], SOFA score ( HR = 1.020, 95% CI was 1.000-1.040), SAPSⅡ score > 44 ( HR = 1.480, 95% CI was 1.340-1.634), mean arterial pressure (MAP) ≤ 75 mmHg (1 mmHg ≈ 0.133 kPa; HR = 1.120, 95% CI was 1.026-1.222), respiratory rate (RR; HR = 1.044, 95% CI was 1.034-1.055), cerebrovascular disease ( HR = 1.620, 95% CI was 1.443-1.818), malignant tumor ( HR = 1.604, 95% CI was 1.447-1.778), severe liver disease ( HR = 1.330, 95% CI was 1.157-1.530), use of vasoactive drugs within 24 hours ( HR = 1.213, 95% CI was 1.101-1.336), arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO 2; HR = 0.999, 95% CI was 0.998-1.000), blood lactic acid (Lac; HR = 1.066, 95% CI was 1.053-1.079), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) > 8.9 mmol/L ( HR = 1.257, 95% CI was 1.144-1.381), total bilirubin (TBil; HR = 1.023, 95% CI was 1.015-1.031), and prothrombin time (PT) > 14.5 s ( HR = 1.232, 95% CI was 1.127-1.347) were associated with the death of ICU patients with sepsis (all P < 0.05). Based on the above factors, a nomogram model was constructed, and the model validation results showed that the consistency index was 0.730. The calibration curve showed a good consistency between the predicted results of the nomogram model and observed results in the training and validation sets. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) predicted by the nomogram model in the training set and the validation set for 28-day, 90-day and 1-year death risk was 0.771 (95% CI was 0.756-0.786) and 0.761 (95% CI was 0.738-0.784), 0.777 (95% CI was 0.763-0.791) and 0.765 (95% CI was 0.744-0.787), 0.677 (95% CI was 0.648-0.707) and 0.685 (95% CI was 0.641-0.728), respectively. DCA analysis showed that the nomogram model had significant net benefits in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year death risk, verifying the clinical value of the model and its good impact on actual decision-making. Conclusions:The death risk factors related to ICU patients with sepsis include age, SOFA score, SAPSⅡ score > 44, MAP ≤ 75 mmHg, RR, cerebrovascular disease, malignant tumors, severe liver disease, use of vasoactive drugs within 24 hours, PaO 2, Lac, BUN, TBil, PT > 14.5 s. The nomogram model constructed based on this can predict the death risk of ICU patients with sepsis.
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Objective To construct and appraise a new model for predicting the prognosis of rectal cancer patients using the Lasso-Cox strategy.Methods The clinical pathological data of 599 rectal cancer patients who underwent radical resection were analyzed.Comparison between groups,Lasso and Cox regression were used to select varia-bles and construct a model,and its discrimination,consistency,and clinical benefits were appraised by the receiv-er operating characteristic(ROC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.Results Comparison between groups showed that age,body mass index(BMI),preoperational nutrition status,carbohydrate antigen199(CA199),preoperative chemotherapy,intraoperative blood transfusion,vascular or nerve invasion,cancer nod-ules,pathologic T,N,and TNM stages,tumor recurrence or metastasis,radiotherapy and postoperative survival time were associated with grouping of death or survival in rectal cancer patients.Among them,8 variables were se-lected by lasso and contained into the Cox regression model.Age(HR=1.04,P＜0.05),BMI(HR=0.89,P＜0.05),blood transfusion(HR=2.29,P＜0.05),postoperative chemotherapy(HR=0.16,P＜0.01),recur-rence(HR=43.67,P＜0.01),and metastasis(HR=2.75,P＜0.05)were identified as independent prognostic factors,which were used to construct a nomogram model.The area under the curve(AUC)and the 95％confi-dence interval of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the predictive model was 0.95(0.91-0.99),P＜0.01.The predicted probability of 1-year and 3-year survival was close to the actual probability.The DCA curve of the model was far away from a decision line parallel to the X-axis and another line with a negative slope.Conclusion The newly established nomogram has good discrimination,consistency and clinical benefits,which help predict the prognosis of rectal cancer after surgery.
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Objective:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)has a high mortality and is always one of the major challenges in global TB prevention and control.Analyzing the factors that may impact the adverse outcomes of MDR-TB patients is helpful for improving the systematic management and optimizing the treatment strategies for MDR-TB patients.For follow-up data,the Cox proportional hazards regression model is an important multifactor analysis method.However,the method has significant limitations in its application,such as the fact that it is difficult to deal with the impacts of small sample sizes and other practical issues on the model.Therefore,Bayesian and conventional Cox regression models were both used in this study to analyze the influencing factors of death in MDR-TB patients during the anti-TB therapy,and compare the differences between these 2 methods in their application. Methods:Data were obtained from 388 MDR-TB patients treated at Lanzhou Pulmonary Hospital from November 1,2017 to March 31,2021.Survival analysis was employed to analyze the death of MDR-TB patients during the therapy and its influencing factors.Conventional and Bayesian Cox regression models were established to estimate the hazard ratios(HR)and their 95% confidence interval(95% CI)for the factors affecting the death of MDR-TB patients.The reliability of parameter estimation in these 2 models was assessed by comparing the parameter standard deviation and 95% CI of each variable.The smaller parameter standard deviation and narrower 95% CI range indicated the more reliable parameter estimation. Results:The median survival time(1st quartile,3rd quartile)of the 388 MDR-TB patients included in the study was 10.18(4.26,18.13)months,with the longest survival time of 31.90 months.Among these patients,a total of 12 individuals died of MDR-TB and the mortality was 3.1%.The median survival time(1st quartile,3rd quartile)for the deceased patients was 4.78(2.63,6.93)months.The majority of deceased patients,accounting for 50%,experienced death within the first 5 months of anti-TB therapy,with the last mortality case occurring within the 13th month of therapy.The results of the conventional Cox regression model showed that the risk of death in MDR-TB patients with comorbidities was approximately 6.96 times higher than that of patients without complications(HR=6.96,95% CI 2.00 to 24.24,P=0.002)and patients who received regular follow-up had a decrease in the risk of death by approximately 81% compared to those who did not receive regular follow-up(HR=0.19,95% CI 0.05 to 0.77,P=0.020).In the results of Bayesian Cox regression model,the iterative history plot and Blue/Green/Red(BGR)plot for each parameter showed the good model convergence,and parameter estimation indicated that the risk of death in patients with a positive first sputum culture was lower than that of patients with a negative first sputum culture(HR=0.33,95% CI 0.08 to 0.87).Additionally,compared to patients without complications,those with comorbidities had an approximately 6.80-fold increase in the risk of death(HR=7.80,95% CI 1.90 to 21.91).Patients who received regular follow-up had a 90% reduction in the risk of death compared to those who did not receive regular follow-up(HR=0.10,95% CI 0.01 to 0.30).The comparison between these 2 models showed that the parameter standard deviations and corresponding 95% CI ranges of other variables in the Bayesian Cox model were significantly smaller than those in the conventional model,except for parameter standard deviations of receiving regular follow-up(Bayesian model was 0.77;conventional model was 0.72)and pulmonary cavities(Bayesian model was 0.73;conventional model was 0.73). Conclusion:The first year of anti-TB therapy is a high-risk period for mortality in MDR-TB patients.Complications are the main risk factors of death in MDR-TB patients,while patients who received regular follow-up and had positive first sputum culture presented a lower risk of death.For data with a small sample size and low incidence of outcome,the Bayesian Cox regression model provides more reliable parameter estimation than the conventional Cox model.