ABSTRACT
RESUMEN Introducción: la epilepsia constituye una de las enfermedades neurológicas crónicas más comunes en niños. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia general y según edad, sexo y etiología de la epilepsia en el área de salud del policlínico Jimmy Hirzel del municipio Bayamo, provincia de Granma en los pacientes menores de 15 años. Métodos: se realizó una investigación descriptiva y transversal, utilizándose entre las técnicas estadísticas el método de captura-recaptura. Resultados: la tasa de prevalencia general encontrada fue de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusiones: se concluyó que la prevalencia de la epilepsia en el área de salud estudiada presenta valores similares a los encontrados en países desarrollados.
ABSTRACT Introduction: epilepsy is one of the most common chronic neurological diseases in children. Objective: to determine the general prevalence and according to age, sex and etiology of epilepsy in the health area of the Jimmy Hirzel polyclinic of the Bayamo municipality, Granma province in patients under 15 years of age. Methods: a descriptive and cross-sectional investigation was carried out, using the capture-recapture method among the statistical techniques. Results: the general prevalence rate found was 4.54 (95% CI, 4.33-4.74). Conclusions: it was concluded that the prevalence of epilepsy in the health area studied presents values similar to those found in developed countries.
RESUMO Introdução: a epilepsia é uma das doenças neurológicas crônicas mais comuns em crianças. Objetivo: determinar a prevalência geral e de acordo com a idade, sexo e etiologia da epilepsia na área de saúde da policlínica Jimmy Hirzel do município de Bayamo, província de Granma em pacientes menores de 15 anos. Métodos: foi realizada uma investigação descritiva e transversal, utilizando o método de captura-recaptura dentre as técnicas estatísticas. Resultados: a taxa de prevalência geral encontrada foi de 4,54 (IC 95%, 4,33-4,74). Conclusões: concluiu-se que a prevalência de epilepsia na área da saúde estudada apresenta valores semelhantes aos encontrados em países desenvolvidos.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection. RESULTS: Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.
Subject(s)
Humans , Counseling , Cross-Sectional Studies , Delivery of Health Care , HIV , HIV Seropositivity , Information Storage and Retrieval , Iran , Linear Models , Methods , Population Density , Prisons , Registries , Statistics as Topic , VolunteersABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources.METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection.RESULTS: Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%.CONCLUSIONS: Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.
Subject(s)
Humans , Counseling , Cross-Sectional Studies , Delivery of Health Care , HIV , HIV Seropositivity , Information Storage and Retrieval , Iran , Linear Models , Methods , Population Density , Prisons , Registries , Statistics as Topic , VolunteersABSTRACT
To verify rubella and CRS elimination, countries need to ensure that their surveillance systems are sufficiently sensitive to capture almost all cases. This study aims to estimate the incidence of CRS in Australia and the sensitivity of CRS case ascertainment in the NNDSS.
ABSTRACT
Objective To discuss the impact of different markers on the estimation of MSM using the capture-recapture method.Methods From March to July 2013,MSM were captured from the their related network to estimate the site of this population,under the capture-recapture method.Two different markers were set in the process of first ‘capture'.Results The estimated numbers of MSM in Beijing were 239 258 (95％CI:48 932-429 584) and 115 731 (95％CI:78 153-153 309) when using the two markers under capture-recapture method.Conclusion The estimated size of MSM population varied greatly under different markers which called for the right selection on markers when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of specific population.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the completeness of cancer registration with Capture-recapture method. METHODS: The study was conducted in the population based cancer registry of Kwangju, Korea, for which there are three main sources of notification: reports by Korean Central Cancer Registry, reports by pathology data, and the others reports by radiology data, death certificates, etc. The defined cases in three sources were matched by 13 digits Resident Register Number. To derive an estimates, log-linear models were applicated. RESULTS: Overall completeness was estimated to be around 93%. There was some variation with age(consistently high levels below age group 60-74 years, a minimum of 88.6% above 75 years). Among the most common cancer sites, estimates of completeness were highest for thyroid cancer(97.1%), while lower estimates of completeness were derived for stomach cancer(92.3%), liver cancer(92.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Careful application of Capture-recapture method may provide an alternative to traditional approaches for estimating the completeness of cancer registration in Kwangju city.
Subject(s)
Humans , Death Certificates , Korea , Linear Models , Liver , Pathology , Stomach , Thyroid GlandABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the real incidence of malaria in Sihong County located in the north of Jiangsu Province and estimate the epidemic actuality in this area. Methods By using the capture-recapture method (CRM), the patients and incidence of malaria were estimated in Sihong. Results In 9 villages of 3 townships, 4896 residents among 1248 families were investigated and 56 cases of malaria found (65 cases reported before) in 2002.There were 121 cases calculated by using CRM and the theoretic cases were 1.86 times of those which had been reported. Conclusion The data of blood-examination collected from the county and towns are obviously different. It indicates that there are potential troubles in the routine blood examination to the fevered patients in this county. The incidence of a certain town is still above 0.2%. The epidemic actuality of malaria is still serious in this county.[