ABSTRACT
The search for genetic materials resistant to adverse weather conditions has been a major focus in studies on species of economic interest. The objective of the present study was to assess the growth and photosynthesis of rubber seedlings clones under two conditions of atmospheric evaporative demand, characterized by fluctuations in temperature (TEMP) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), associated to two water regimens. Hevea brasiliensis Muell. Arg (RRIM 600 and FX 3864) clones were assessed in two microclimates, at low (TEMP 21.2 ºC and VPD 0.29 Kpa) and high (TEMP 26.9 ºC and VPD 1.49 Kpa) atmospheric evaporative demand, under two water regimens: water deficit and well-watered. Water deficit 50% water availability was sufficient to reduce the net CO2 assimilation rate, leaf area and total chlorophyll of the clones studied that impacted growth in both microclimates. The effects of water deficit on growth and net carbon assimilation rate were intensified under high atmospheric evaporative demand. However, when comparing the two clones studied, RRIM 600 showed greater growth and photosynthesis without water restriction. The FX 3864 clone, despite the high CO2 assimilation values under high atmospheric demand and without water restriction, showed a reduced growth. The results of this study form an important basis for the selection of genotypes with the potential to develop in adverse climatic conditions. In this sense, the RRIM 600 genotype is recommended as a promising material that would best adapt under adverse climatic conditions.
Subject(s)
Photosynthesis , Rubber , Hevea/growth & development , Efficient Water UseABSTRACT
The Brazil-nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is native to the Amazon rainforest, and its fruit production varies naturally with climatic conditions. Our aim was to evaluate the temporal variation in Brazil-nut production associated with climatic variables, including the strong El Niño of 2015/2016. The study was carried out in two 9-ha permanent plots in the northeastern Brazilian Amazon from 2007 to 2018: one in forest (12-year monitoring) and the other in savannah/forest transition (eight years). Overall, we monitored fruit production of 205 trees with diameter at breast height ≥ 50 cm. Annual fruit production was related to temporal series (2005-2018) of climatic data (the Oceanic Niño Index; and precipitation and air temperature from two local meteorological stations). Average fruit production per tree in 2017 was eight times lower than in 2015 and two times lower than the general average for both sites, and was significantly associated to the El Niño of 2015/2016, that increased average maximum monthly temperature and reduced the precipitation in the region, extending the dry season from three to six months. Years with higher and lower fruit production per tree coincided in both sites. Annual fruit production was significantly and negatively correlated with thermal anomalies that occurred in the third semester prior to harvest monitoring. Years with higher production were related with predominance of neutrality or the La Niña phenomenon at the global scale, and higher rainfall at the local scale. The relationship of fruit production with climate was independent of the local habitat.
A castanheira-da-amazônia (Bertholletia excelsa) é nativa da floresta amazônica e sua produção de frutos varia naturalmente com as condições climáticas. Nosso objetivo foi avaliar a variação temporal na produção de frutos da castanheira associada a variáveis climáticas, incluindo o forte El Nino de 2015/2016. O estudo foi realizado em parcelas permanentes de 9 ha de 2007 a 2018, uma localizada em floresta (12 anos de monitoramento) e a outra em transição floresta/savana (oito anos). Em total, monitoramos 205 castanheiras com diâmetro à altura do peito ≥ 50 cm. A produção anual de frutos foi relacionada a séries temporais (2005-2018) de dados climáticos (o Índice Oceânico Niño; e a precipitação e temperatura do ar de duas estações meteorológicas locais). A produção média por castanheira em 2017 foi oito vezes menor que em 2015 e duas vezes menor que a média geral nos dois sítios, e foi significativamente associada ao El Niño de 2015/2016, que causou aumento na temperatura máxima mensal e redução na precipitação regional, prolongando a estação seca de três para seis meses. Os anos com maior e menor produção média por castanheira foram os mesmos nos dois ambientes. A produção anual de frutos foi significativa e negativamente correlacionada com as anomalias térmicas ocorridas no terceiro semestre antes da colheita. Anos de maior produção foram relacionados com predominância de neutralidade ou do fenômeno La Niña em escala global, e aumento da precipitação em nível local. A relação entre produção de frutos e clima foi independente do ambiente local.
Subject(s)
Bertholletia , Fruit/growth & development , Climate ChangeABSTRACT
Introducción: La alteración de la temperatura del ambiente pelágico puede repercutir en la variación poblacional de los consumidores tope como las aves marinas. Objetivo: Evaluar la respuesta poblacional de tres especies de piqueros en isla Gorgona (Pacífico colombiano) con respecto a la variabilidad local y regional de las condiciones de temperatura superficial del mar (TSM). Métodos: Se analizaron las tendencias mensuales de la abundancia de Sula leucogaster, Sula nebouxii y Sula variegata en relación a la variación de la TSM en el área de influencia de Gorgona, la región de San José en la costa del Perú y la región Niño 1+2. Resultados: La mayor correlación positiva se presentó entre S. nebouxii y S. variegata con la TSM de la región Niño 1+2, con un desfase de cuatro y cinco meses, respectivamente. Este desfase temporal posiblemente corresponde al tiempo que demora su migración entre la costa peruana y Gorgona. En contraste, la abundancia de S. leucogaster disminuyó al aumentar la TSM mensual de Gorgona. Conclusiones: Es probable que las tendencias descritas estén relacionadas con la disminución de la productividad y disponibilidad de presas asociadas con temperaturas más cálidas en estas áreas. Se sugiere que la TSM puede influir sobre las tendencias de abundancia de los tres piqueros, y su continuo monitoreo permitirá mejorar el conocimiento sobre la variación natural de estas poblaciones.
Introduction: Pelagic environment temperature variations may influence population variation of top predators, such as seabirds. Objective: A population response assessment of three species of boobies, in Gorgona Island (Colombian Pacific), in relation to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Methods: We assessed the relationship between SST variability and monthly abundance of Brown Boobies, Blue-footed Boobies and Peruvian Boobies, in the influence area of Gorgona, the San José region (Peruvian coast) and the Niño 1+2 region. Results: The largest positive correlation was observed between Blue-footed Boobies and Peruvian Boobies with SST at the Niño 1+2 region, with a lag of four and five months, respectively. This delay may correspond to the migration duration from the Peruvian coast to Gorgona. In contrast, Brown Booby abundance decreased as monthly SST in Gorgona increased. Conclusions: These trends may be related to less productivity and prey availability associated with warmer sea surface temperatures. We suggest that SST influences the abundance trend of these three species, and their continuous monitoring will improve our knowledge on the natural variation of these populations.
ABSTRACT
Introducción: La variabilidad climática tiene efectos importantes sobre las diferentes actividades económicas que se desarrollan en zonas costeras y que emplean servicios ecosistémicos para su funcionamiento. Actualmente, no existen metodologías integrales que permitan realizar un proceso de valoración teniendo en cuenta todas las variables y las interacciones entre ellas. Objetivo: Proponer una aproximación metodológica que incluya de manera integral las diferentes etapas en el proceso de valoración económica de servicios ecosistémicos en zonas costeras, ante la variabilidad climática. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión bibliográfica, consulta a expertos y se empleó un ejemplo de aplicación usando la actividad turística de buceo con tiburones martillos en la Isla del Coco. Resultados: La aproximación metodológica propuesta inicia con la caracterización socioeconómica y ambiental de la actividad que emplea el recurso natural como insumo, posteriormente se realiza una identificación y caracterización de las variables ambientales que afectan el recurso natural y los efectos que la variación de este recurso tiene sobre la actividad económica. Conclusiones: Las variables que conforman el sistema climático, que tienen relación con los recursos naturales y las actividades económicas, al ser influenciadas por fenómenos externos, producen efectos que deben ser analizados por medio de aproximaciones metodológicas integrales, dentro de las cuales uno de los pasos es la metodología de valoración, que permitan generar recomendaciones de política que contribuyan a minimizar esos efectos.
Introduction: Climate variability has important effects on the different economic activities that take place in marine areas. Currently, there are no comprehensive methodologies to carry out an assessment process that consider all the variables and interactions between them. Objective: To propose a methodological approach that comprehensively includes the different stages in the process of economic valuation of ecosystem services in coastal areas, in the face of climate variability. Methods: A bibliographic review, expert consultations and an application of a methodological example using the impact over shark diving activities at Isla del Coco were conducted. Results: The proposed methodological approach begins with the socio-economic and environmental characterization of the activity that uses a natural resource as input, followed by the identification and characterization of the environmental variables that affect the natural resource and of the effects that the variation of this resource has on the economic activity. Conclusions: The variables that make up the climate system, which relate to natural resources and economic activities, being influenced by external phenomena, produce effects that must be analyzed by comprehensive methodological approximations, within which one of the steps is the valuation methodology, that will allow generating policy recommendations that help to minimize these effects.
ABSTRACT
The densities of the land crab Cardisoma guanhumi has been declining due to overfishing, habitat degradation and loss, and continued capture in Natural Protected Areas (NPA). Numerous management strategies and regulations have been developed to monitor and reduce population declines. In Puerto Rico, an administrative order of 1999, regulates a closed season, prohibited the capture of crabs through the year from NPA's and below a minimum size for capture (64 mm). The goal of this research was to monitor spatial-temporal dynamics of crab captures after the implementation of the administrative order. Crabs captured in the Jobos Bay Estuary (JBE) were studied over a 15-year period. The size (carapace width) (CW), sex, and color were documented for 1 531 crabs from 31 crab hunters. Significant temporal difference in crab size was observed (Kruskal Wallis = 46.82, P < 6.187e-9), the smallest crabs were captured in 2004 and the largest crabs were captured in 2013. Crab size varied by color (Kruskal Wallis = 86.54, P < 2.2e-16), larger crabs were blue, medium sized crabs were brown and smallest crabs were orange. Since color is related to development stage and market value, color can be used as an educational and enforcement tool. There was significant spatial difference in the size of crabs captured (Kruskal Wallis = 252.54, P < 2.2 e-16), smaller crabs were captured in smaller hunting areas. Only three percent of crabs captured from 2009 to 2018 were below the legal-size limit. Temperature had a weak significant positive relationship with crab size and in years when rainfall was lower smaller crabs were captured. Increases in crab size from 2004 to 2013 coincided with mangrove recovery and the current decrease of crab size coincides with droughts of 2015. Management plans in the Caribbean must include local actions to reduce hunting and climate variability impacts on crab habitat and food availability.
Las densidades del cangrejo terrestre Cardisoma guanhumi ha disminuido debido a la sobrepesca, la degradación y pérdida de hábitat y la captura continua en áreas naturales protegidas (ANP). Se han desarrollado numerosas estrategias y regulaciones de gestión para monitorear y reducir el declive de la población. En Puerto Rico, una orden administrativa de 1999 regula una temporada cerrada, prohibió la captura de cangrejos durante todo el año en las ANP y por debajo de un tamaño mínimo para la captura (64 mm). El objetivo de esta investigación fue monitorear la dinámica espacio-temporal de las capturas de cangrejo después de la implementación de la orden administrativa. Los cangrejos capturados en el estuario de la Bahía de Jobos (JBE) se estudiaron durante un período de 15 años. El tamaño (ancho del caparazón) (CW), el sexo y el color se documentaron para 1 531 cangrejos de 31 cazadores de cangrejos. Se observó una diferencia temporal significativa en el tamaño del cangrejo (Kruskal Wallis = 46.82, P < 6.187e-9), los cangrejos más pequeños se capturaron en 2004 y los cangrejos más grandes en 2013. El tamaño del cangrejo varió según el color (Kruskal Wallis = 86.54, P < 2.2e-16), los cangrejos más grandes eran azules, los cangrejos medianos eran marrones y los cangrejos más pequeños eran anaranjados. Dado que el color está relacionado con la etapa de desarrollo y el valor de mercado, el color se puede utilizar como herramienta educativa y de cumplimiento. Hubo una diferencia espacial en el tamaño de los cangrejos capturados (Kruskal Wallis = 252.54, P < 2.2e-16), se capturaron cangrejos más pequeños en áreas de caza pequeñas. Solo el tres por ciento de los cangrejos capturados de 2009 a 2018 estaban por debajo del límite de tamaño legal. La temperatura tuvo una relación positiva significativa con el tamaño del cangrejo, cuando la lluvia fue menor, se capturaron cangrejos pequeños. Los aumentos en el tamaño de los cangrejos de 2004 a 2013 coincidieron con la recuperación de los manglares y la disminución actual del tamaño de los cangrejos coincide con las sequías de 2015. Los planes de manejo en el Caribe deben incluir acciones locales para reducir la caza y los impactos de la variabilidad del clima en el hábitat del cangrejo y la disponibilidad de alimentos.
ABSTRACT
Climate variability and change has become a global phenomenon with many countries including Ghana working hard to mitigate the effect or develop strategies for adaptation. However, tropical forest has been identified to have the capacity to mitigate the impact of climate change and improve the general environment. The forest plays a critical role in the climate system, hydrology and the carbon cycle, and provide livelihood for over 2.5 billion rural dwellers in developing countries. This article therefore highlights the importance of tropical forest as a potential resource for climate change mitigation and the need for policy makers, stakeholders and the general public to seriously adopt positive approach to the management of forest resources. The article was carried out through extensive review of literature, official reports and policy documents. The paper outlines the threat of climate change, the state of Ghana’s forest and climate, and the role of the forest to mitigate climate change. It also highlights the socio-economic benefits of the forest in mitigating the changing climate. The documents reviewed showed that the state of Ghana’s forest has dwindled over the years through anthropogenic activities and the climate is also changing. It was also established that trees can remove substantial amount of CO2 from the atmosphere for storage. The paper concludes with recommendations for the preservation and regeneration of the tropical forest for the purpose of mitigating the effect of climate change in Ghana.
ABSTRACT
La variabilidad climática constituye en la actualidad uno de los principales factores de riesgo para la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria mundial. Los ecosistemas más vulnerables en Colombia son los que se ubican en la zona alto-andina donde miles de familias campesinas se dedican a la agricultura en pequeña escala. Los programas enfocados a adaptar la agricultura a la variabilidad climática no se apoyan suficientemente en el conocimiento local ni motivan a las comunidades para la acción. Esta investigación propuso un análisis de la relación entre sustentabilidad y adaptación a la variabilidad climática, reconociendo de manera participativa los principales factores de riesgo para la sustentabilidad de la agricultura a partir de indicadores y analizando la efectividad de planes de mejora en la capacidad adaptativa de la agricultura alto-andina. Se desarrolló como un estudio de caso con 13 productores familiares vinculados a la Asociación Red Agroecológica Campesina de Subachoque, en 3 fases: a) creación de un marco de análisis sobre los principales factores de riesgo para la agricultura; b) evaluación de la sustentabilidad a partir de indicadores propios y c) implementación de planes para aumentar la capacidad adaptativa de la agricultura. La evaluación realizada en dos momentos diferentes demostró mejora en los 9 indicadores generados, de forma que la implementación de las acciones para mejorar la sustentabilidad influyeron positivamente sobre la capacidad de las fincas para adaptarse a los riesgos de la variabilidad climática. Las estrategias agroecológicas implementadas mejoraron la resiliencia socioecológica de los agroecosistemas manejados por agricultores familiares, aumentando la posibilidad de que respondan mejor ante cualquier escenario de cambio ambiental.
Climate variability constitutes actually one of the main risks to agriculture and food security in the world. The most vulnerable ecosystems in Colombia are located in the high region of the Andeans where thousands of families farming lives from agriculture in small scale. The programs aimed to adapt the agriculture to climate variability do not take into account the local knowledge; neither motivates communities to action. This research proposed an analysis of the relationship between sustainability and agricultural adaptation to climate variability in a participatory way, recognizing the main risk factors to agriculture sustainability using indicators and analyzing the effectiveness of improving plans to the agricultural adaptation capacity in the high-Andeans. It was developed as a study case with 13 farmers linked to the Agro-ecological Farming Net Association of Subachoque. 3 phases were developed: a) the creation of a framework regarding the main the risks factors to the agriculture; b) sustainability appraisal based on own indicators and c) implementation of plans to increase the agricultural adaptation capacity. The appraisal developed in 2 different moments showed improving in the 9 indicators suggesting that the implementation of actions to the sustainability of farming positively influenced on the farms capacity to face the risks of the climate variability. The agro-ecological strategies implemented, improving the socio-ecological resilience of agro-ecosystems managed by family farmers, increasing the possibility that they better responding to any scenario of environmental change.
Subject(s)
Humans , Sustainable Agriculture , Environmental Change , Sustainable Development Indicators , FarmersABSTRACT
La mayor parte de la población colombiana está en condiciones de riesgo debido a factores hidroclimatológicos, fuertemente influenciados por la variabilidad (VC) y el cambio climático (CC). A esto se suma el aumento de la vulnerabilidad por la inadecuada planificación y ocupación del territorio, propia de países en desarrollo. En este sentido, los sistemas de alerta temprana (SAT) facilitan los procesos de adaptación y mitigación de impactos, por lo que se constituyen en uno de los ejes transversales de la gestión del riesgo. En este trabajo se presenta una reflexión de diversos enfoques y experiencias nacionales e internacionales en SAT. A partir de lo anterior, se identificó que muchos SAT no llegan a ser implementados; y una vez en funcionamiento, existe desequilibrio entre sus componentes. Por otro lado, no se ajustan a las necesidades de los territorios como consecuencia de la escasa participación comunitaria, tanto en la etapa de diseño como en la de operación. Por ello, se considera que para obtener resultados eficaces, que promuevan la construcción de resiliencia, son necesarios SAT con enfoque participativo, que fortalezcan las capacidades de las comunidades para enfrentar las condiciones de riesgo de su entorno.
Most of the Colombian population is facing risks due to hydroclimatological factors, strongly influenced by the climate variability (CV) and climate change (CC). Likewise, vulnerability is continuously increasing because of inadequate land planning and occupation, common in developing countries. Therefore, early warning systems (EWS) facilitate the processes of adaptation and mitigation of impacts, which is why they constitute one of the transverse axes in risk management. This study aimed to review approaches to and field experiences with EWS throughout the world, including Colombia. We identified that many EWS are unimplemented; and once in operation, there exists an imbalance among components. On the other hand, some EWS fail to meet the territory needs as a result of poor community participation, both at design and operation stages. Hence, a participative approach in EWS to tackling risks and building up the capacities of the communities should be promoted for obtaining effective results.
Subject(s)
Humans , Climate Change , Risk Management , Climate Effects , Disaster VulnerabilityABSTRACT
RESUMO Diversos estudos têm demonstrado que o aumento da temperatura média do planeta causa uma intensificação do ciclo hidrológico, o que poderá ocasionar mudanças nos regimes das chuvas, como o aumento da ocorrência de eventos hidrológicos extremos, alterando fortemente a disponibilidade hídrica de uma região e a qualidade de vida da população. A análise da tendência de séries históricas de precipitação pluviométrica é uma das maneiras de se inferir a ocorrência de mudança climática local. Nesse contexto, este trabalho objetiva a estimativa da tendência dos índices de detecção de mudanças climáticas elaborados pela Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), referentes à precipitação pluvial diária, utilizando o software RClimDex, e a avaliação dessas tendências nas bacias hidrográficas do estado de Pernambuco. Para isso, foram utilizados 75 postos pluviométricos distribuídos de forma uniforme pelo estado com séries históricas variando de 1962 a 2011, com cerca de 50 anos de dados. Foram observadas tendências em vários índices de detecção de mudanças climáticas nas bacias dos rios Goiana, Capibaribe, Ipojuca, Sirinhaém, Una, Mundaú, Ipanema, Moxotó, Terra Nova, Brígida, Garças e Pontal. Concluiu-se que existem evidências de mudanças no clima de algumas bacias hidrográficas principais, diagnosticando indícios de aceleração no processo de aridez das bacias dos rios Ipanema, Brígida e Garças, e tendência de aumento dos eventos extremos máximos de precipitação para as bacias dos rios Mundaú, Sirinhaém e Garças.
ABSTRACT Several studies have shown that the increasing of planet’s average temperature causes an intensification of the hydrological cycle, which may lead to changes in rainfall regimes, such as increasing of the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, modifying the water availability of a region and the quality of life of its population. The trend analysis of time series of rainfall is one of the ways to determine the occurrence of local climate changes. In this context, this work aims to estimate the trend in rates of climate change detection, referring to daily rainfall, defined by World Meteorological Organization (WMO), using the software RClimDex, and to evaluate the implications of these trends in river basins of the state of Pernambuco. For this, 75 rain gauge stations uniformly distributed along the state, varying from 1962 to 2011, with about 50 years of data, were used. Several trends in detection rates of climate change in the basins of Goiana, Capibaribe, Ipojuca, Sirinhaém, Una, Mundaú, Ipanema, Moxotó, Terra Nova, Brígida, Garças e Pontal were observed. It was concluded that there is evidence of climate variability for some of its major river basins: it was verified evidence of acceleration in the process of dryness of the river basins of Ipanema, Brígida and Garças, and it was observed a higher tendency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events for the basins of Mundaú, Sirinhaém and Garças.
ABSTRACT
El presente trabajo parte de una breve fundamentación teórica que soporta una estructura metodológica tendiente al cálculo de cambio climático, el estudio de la variabilidad climática en el territorio de las cuencas de los ríos Zulia y Pamplonita en Norte de Santander y la identificación inicial de medidas potenciales de adaptación al cambio climático y la variabilidad climática. En su desarrollo se identificaron y espacializaron las tendencias de cambio climático y las alteraciones más probables de los fenómenos de variabilidad climática asociados al ciclo ENSO6 para el período 1981-2010 en las cuencas objeto de estudio. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la temperatura media ha cambiado entre 0,1 y 0,4ºC por década en las cuencas, la precipitación ha aumentado de 0 a 250 mm/década y los ciclos ENSO generan alteraciones en la variabilidad climática de las cuencas de manera diferenciada a nivel estacional e interanual, especialmente en los trimestres Dic-Ene-Feb, Jun-Jul-Ago y Sep-Oct-Nov.
This work is based on a brief theoretical foundation that supports a methodological structure aimed at the calculations of climate change, the study of climate variability in the territory of the basins of the Zulia and Pamplonita rivers in Norte de Santander and the initial identification of potential measures of adaptation to climate change and climate variability..In its development, the climate change trends and the most likely alterations of the climate variability phenomena associated with the ENSO cycle for the period 1981-2010 in the basins of the object of study were identified and spatialized. The results obtained show that the average temperature has changed between 0.1 and 0.4°C per decade in the basins, precipitation has increased from 0 to 250 mm/decade and the ENSO cycles generate alterations in the climate variability of the basins on a differentiated manner on a seasonal and year-on-year level, especially in the Dec-Jan-Feb, Jun-Jul-Aug and Sep-Oct-Nov quarters.
Subject(s)
Humans , Climate Change , Colombia , Vulnerability Analysis , Adaptation to DisastersABSTRACT
Este artículo tiene por objetivo analizar algunos aspectos que potenciaron las inundaciones en Colombia en el periodo 2010/2011. La metodología consistió en la revisión y síntesis de información sobre diferentes enfoques para el manejo de inundaciones, en armonía con la visión ecosistémica y de gestión integral de los recursos hídricos. Los resultados indican que las temporadas de lluvias y el fenómeno La Niña de abril de 2010 a diciembre de 2011 dejaron 5,2 millones de personas afectadas y 683 muertos. Dicho evento es el más crítico en la historia, ya que duplica las pérdidas acumuladas por inundaciones en 30 años. Además de lo anterior, se identifica que el desastre se debió a una suma de factores, entre los que destacan: cambios en la cobertura vegetal; las deficiencias en la gestión del suelo y los recursos hídricos; las debilidades en el diseño y gestión de infraestructura, en los patrones de crecimiento demográfico; los problemas institucionales en la prevención y atención de emergencias; la falta de transparencia y la corrupción; una legislación que carece de metodologías para aplicación, de recursos fiscales y de mecanismos para el seguimiento y medición resultados; entre otros. Una de las conclusiones es la necesidad de incluir nuevos conocimientos del clima en la gestión del riesgo y la planificación pero, sobre todo, es recomendable abordar el manejo de las inundaciones con un enfoque diferente, migrando hacia procesos integrales y con mayor capacidad de adaptación de la sociedad colombiana en los próximos años, mediante una gestión del riesgo de inundación más eficiente, acorde a conceptos modernos y en armonía con los procesos de desarrollo sostenible.
The main objective of this article is to analyze some aspects that fostered floods in Colombia in the period 2010/2011. The methodology followed was a review and synthesis of information on different approaches to flood management, in harmony with the ecosystemic vision and integrated management of water resources. The results indicate that the rainy season and La Niña phenomenon from April 2010 to December 2011 left 5,2 million people affected and 683 people dead. This has been the most critical event in history, because it doubled the accumulated losses from flooding in 30 years. Besides the above, it has been identified that the disaster was due to a combination of factors, among which are: changes in vegetation cover, deficiencies in the management of land and water resources, the weaknesses in the design and management of infrastructure, the population growth patterns, the institutional problems in the prevention and emergency care, lack of transparency and corruption, legislation that lacks enforcement methodologies, fiscal resources and mechanisms for monitoring and measuring the results, among others. One conclusion is the need to include new knowledge on climate, risk management and planning, but above all, it is recommended to address the management of floods with a different approach, migrating to more comprehensive processes and with a higer adaptation capacity from the Colombian society in the coming years through a more efficient flood risk management, in accordance with the modern concepts and in harmony with sustainable development processes.
Subject(s)
Humans , Climate Change , Floods , El Nino-Southern Oscillation , Natural DisastersABSTRACT
Socioeconomic activities and their gross income in Isla del Coco National Park have been poorly evaluated and systematized, as well as the effects on them climate variability may have. A methodology that combines cluster analysis with a dynamic value chain was developed to identify the most important socioeconomic activities and quantify the gross income derived by the existence of Isla del Coco National Park. The possible effects of climate variability on these activities were also analyzed. A detailed literature review, consultation and interviews with researchers, entrepreneurs and tourists were conducted in order to apply the methodology. The main clusters of activities around this park are leisure and spiritual experiences, research and education, economic activities and park management. An approximation of the gross income from the activities carried out around the National Park in 2010 was calculated. The gross income generated at the national level was $5.7 million dollars and at the international level was $2.5 million dollars. The overall gross income was approximately $8.3 million dollars. But, if the natural resources being visited by tourists degrade due to the effects of climate variability these benefits could decrease by 30%.
Las actividades socioeconómicas y sus ingresos en el Parque Nacional Isla del Coco han sido poco evaluados y sistematizados, al igual que los efectos que sobre ellos pueda tener la variabilidad climática. empleó una metodología que combina análisis de conglomerados con una dinámica de valor agregado en una cadena productiva, para identificar las actividades socioeconómicas más importantes y cuantificar los ingresos que obtienen por la existencia del PNIC, además se analizó los posibles efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre estas actividades. Para lo anterior, se realizó una revisión bibliográfica detallada, consulta con empresarios, investigadores y turistas. Se obtuvo que los principales conglomerados de actividades alrededor del PNIC son la recreación y la vivencia espiritual, la investigación, las actividades económicas y la gestión y manejo del Parque. Se realizó una aproximación de las contribuciones de la existencia del PNIC en estos cuatro conglomerados en el 2010, y se obtuvo que la contribución el ámbito nacional fue de US$5.7 millones de dólares, el internacional de US$2.5 millones de dólares, el global del PNIC ascendió aproximadamente a US$8.3 millones de dólares. También se obtuvo que si los recursos naturales objeto de la visita de los turistas disminuyen debido a efectos de la variabilidad climática esto ingresos podrían disminuir en 30%.
Subject(s)
Socioeconomic Factors/history , Climate Change/economics , Gift Giving , Financing, Organized , Tourism/economics , Support of ResearchABSTRACT
Dado el aumento en la frecuencia de eventos hidro meteorológicos extremos, asociados a la variabilidad climática y/o cambio climático, y la mayor vulnerabilidad de las sociedades humanas frente a estas amenazas, se presenta un mayor interés en la reducción de gases de efecto invernadero por parte de la comunidad científica, este artículo resalta la importancia de la adaptación para la reducción del riesgo de desastre asociado al tiempo, el clima y sus intersecciones con la gestión del riesgo. Se concluye, que la adaptación y la gestión del riesgo, deben integrase con una visión holística para reducir la vulnerabilidad de la sociedad, además de articularse con iniciativas de mitigación para reducir las causas que generan el cambio climático, reduciendo el riesgo existente y evitando la construcción social de nuevos factores de riesgo.
Given the increase in the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events associated with climate variability and/or climate change, and to the increased vulnerability of human societies before those hazards, a higher interest in reducing greenhouse gases by the scientific community appears. This article highlights the importance of adaptation for disaster risk reduction associated with the weather, the climate and their intersections with risk management. It is concluded that adaptation and risk management should be integrated with a comprehensive view to reduce society's vulnerability and gets articulated with mitigation initiatives to reduce the causes that generate climate change, thus reducing the existent risk and avoiding the social construction of new risk factors.
Subject(s)
Humans , Climate Change , Risk Management , Hazards , Disaster VulnerabilityABSTRACT
Variations in lake evaporation have a significant impact on the energy and water budgets of lakes. Understanding these variations and the role of climate is important for water resources management as well as predicting future changes in lake hydrology as a result of climate change. This study presents a comprehensive, 10-year analysis of seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual variations in lake evaporation for Lake Nasser in South Egypt. Meteorological and lake temperature measurements were collected from an instrumented platform (Raft floating weather station) at 2 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam. In addition to that, radiation measurements at three locations on the lake: Allaqi, Abusembel and Arqeen (respectively at 75, 280 and 350 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam) are used. The data were analyzed over 14-day periods from 1995 to 2004 to provide bi-weekly energy budget estimates of evaporation rate. The mean evaporation rate for lake Nasser over the study period was 5.88 mm day-1, with a coefficient of variation of 63%. Considerable variability in evaporation rates was found on a wide range of timescales, with seasonal changes having the highest coefficient of variation (32%), followed by the intraseasonal (28%) and interannual timescales (11.6%; for summer means). Intraseasonal changes in evaporation were primarily associated with synoptic weather variations, with high evaporation events tending to occur during incursions of cold, dry air (due, in part, to the thermal lag between air and lake temperatures). Seasonal variations in evaporation were largely driven by temperature and net energy advection, but are out-of-phase with changes in wind speed. On interannual timescales, changes in summer evaporation rates were strongly associated with changes in net energy advection and showed only moderate connections to variations in temperature or humidity.
ABSTRACT
Climate and subsurface sea temperature in Bahía Culebra, Costa Rica. Bahía Culebra, Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica is a seasonal upwelling area. To determine the relationship of climate and the subsurface temperature variability at Bahía Culebra, we analyzed nine records of sea subsurface temperature from the Bay, continuously recorded from 1998 to 2010. The analysis characterized the annual cycle and explored the influence of different climate variability sources on the subsurface sea temperature and air temperature recorded in Bahía Culebra. Data from an automatic meteorological station in the bay were studied, obtaining the annual and daily cycle for air surface temperature and wind speed. Sea surface temperature (SST) trend from 1854 to 2011 was calculated from reanalysis for the region that coverts 9-11°N, 85-87°W. Because of the positive SST trend identified in this region, results showed that annual and daily cycles in Bahía Culebra should be studied under a warming scenario since 1854, that is coherent with the global warming results and its climate variability is influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Equatorial Pacific and by atmospheric forcing triggered by climate variability with Atlantic Ocean origin, because warm (cold) events in Bahía Culebra tend to occur in concordance with positive & negative (negative & positive) anomalies in Niño 3.4 (NAO) index.
Bahía Culebra, Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica es una región de afloramiento estacional. Para determinar la relación entre el clima y la variabilidad de la temperatura sub-superficial, se analizaron los registros de la temperatura sub-superficial del mar de nueve estaciones localizadas en la Bahía. El análisis permitió caracterizar su ciclo anual y explorar su relación con fuentes de variabilidad climática que influencian el clima regional para el periodo 1998-2010. Los resultados se contextualizaron usando además los datos de una estación meteorológica automática que funcionó en la bahía junto con el registro de la temperatura superficial del mar para una rejilla que cubre la región de 9-11°N, 85-87°W, para el periodo 1854-2011. Debido a la tendencia positiva encontrada en la región para la temperatura superficial del mar, se concluye que los resultados mostrados asociados a los ciclos anuales y diarios en Bahía Culebra deben ser interpretados bajo un escenario de cambio climático, asociado a un calentamiento ocurrido desde 1854, además coherente con lo observado globalmente, y que su variabilidad climática está influenciada no sólo por aquella ligada a la de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, en el Pacífico Ecuatorial, sino también por influencias de tipo atmosférico relacionadas con la variabilidad en el Océano Atlántico, debido a que los eventos cálidos (fríos) en Bahía Culebra tienden a ocurrir en concordancia con anomalías positivas y negativas (negativas y positivas) de los índices Niño 3.4 y OAN, respectivamente.
Subject(s)
Temperature , Climate Change , Bays , Costa Rica , Sea Level RiseABSTRACT
O objetivo deste trabalho foi associar a variabilidade interanual da evaporação do tanque Classe A e da umidade relativa do ar com o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) em Santa Maria, RS. Foram utilizados os dados diários de evaporação do tanque Classe A (ECA, mm dia-1) e umidade relativa média diária do ar (UR, por cento) medidos em Santa Maria, RS. A ECA foi medida de 1973 a 2006 e a UR de 1969 a 2006. Os anos foram classificados em El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) e Neutros (N), considerando o período de 01/07 de um ano até 30/06 do ano seguinte. Os resultados mostraram que a ECA é menor nos anos de EN e maior nos anos de LN. Já a UR foi maior em anos de EN e menor em anos de LN. O efeito do fenômeno ENOS sobre a ECA é maior nos meses de novembro, dezembro, janeiro e maio, enquanto que sobre a UR os meses de maior influência do ENOS são outubro, novembro, dezembro e maio.
The objective of this study was to associate the interannual variability of Pan evaporation and air relative humidity with the El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO) phenomenon in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Daily data records of Pan evaporation (PAN, mm day-1) and mean daily relative humidity (RH, percent) measured in Santa Maria, RS, were used. PAN was measured from 1973 to 2006 and RH was measured from 1969 to 2006. Years were grouped into El Niño (EN) years, La Niña (LN) years, and Neutral (N) years, from July 1st of the year to June 30th of the following year. Results showed that PAN is lower in EN years and greater in LN years. On the other hand, RH was greater in EN years and lower in LN years. The effect of ENSO on PAN is greater in November, December, January, and May, whereas RH is affected by ENSO in October, November, December and May.
ABSTRACT
O presente documento constitui uma revisão do estado da arte do conhecimento sobre mudanças de clima e água no Brasil e na América do Sul. Discutem-se alguns dos resultados dos estudos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) e do Relatório de Clima do Inpe em relação a estudos obervacionais de variabilidade de clima e projeções de clima e das componentes do ciclo hidrológico até finais do século XXI, para as principais bacias hidrográficas no continente. Um dos aspectos importantes discutidos neste informe refere-se aos aspectos econômico e gerencial do recurso água nas diferentes regiões do Brasil, e como isso pode mudar num cenário de mudanças de clima.
Subject(s)
Hydrographic Basins , Hydrology , Hydrometeorology , Climate Change , Brazil , South AmericaABSTRACT
Malaria has still been one of the most important endemic diseases in the Amazonian region. This study presents the impact of human settlements on the structure of Anopheles population. Diversity, abundance, richness and distribution of the genus Anopheles were observed in two areas with different levels of human settlement in the Cantá city, Roraima State, Northern Brazil. The influence of the dry and rainy seasons on mosquito populations was also observed. Mosquito captures were performed between 6:00 and 10:00 pm during the dry (February and November) and rainy (May and August) seasons at four different sites of each area. Among the 11 species of Anopheles identified through the adults' characteristics, An. albitarsis s.l. (45.5 percent) and An. darlingi (19.2 percent) were the most abundant in the more intensively anthropized area while An. triannulatus (19.2 percent) was more common in the less modified area. Other species found were An. nuneztovari (10.9 percent), An. oswaldoi (2.0 percent), An. evansae (1.7 percent), An. brasiliensis (0.6 percent), An. intermedius (0.3 percent), An. mediopunctatus (0.5 percent), An. periassui (0.08 percent) and An. argyritarsis (0.04 percent). The highest mosquitoes' population density was observed in May and the lowest one was observed in February and November. These results demonstrate the existence of a high diversity of anophelines in the study areas, showing that anthropic changes in the environment and climate variability affect both the population density and relative abundance of these vectors.
Malária continua sendo uma das mais importantes doenças endêmicas da região Amazônica. Esse estudo mostra o impacto da colonização humana sobre a estrutura populacional de Anopheles. Diversidade, abundância, riqueza e distribuição do gênero Anopheles foi observado em duas áreas com diferentes graus de antropização no município do Cantá, Estado de Roraima, Norte do Brasil. A influência das estações seca e chuvosa sobre a população dos mosquitos também foram investigadas. A captura dos mosquitos foi realizada entre 6:00 e 10:00 pm na estação seca (Fevereiro e Novembro) e estação chuvosa (Maio e Agosto) em quatro locais diferentes. Entre as 11 espécies de Anopheles identificadas através das características dos adultos, An. albitarsis s.l. (45.5 por cento) e An. darlingi (19.2 por cento) foram as mais abundantes nas áreas mais intensamente antropizadas, enquanto An. triannulatus (19.2 por cento) foi a espécie mais comum na área menos modificada. As outras espécies encontradas foram An. nuneztovari (10.9 por cento), An. oswaldoi (2.0 por cento), An. evansae (1.7 por cento), An. brasiliensis (0.6 por cento), An. intermedius (0.3 por cento), An. mediopunctatus (0.5 por cento), An. periassui (0.08 por cento) e An. argyritarsis (0.04 por cento). A mais alta densidade populacional de mosquitos foi observada em Maio e as mais baixas em Fevereiro e Novembro. Esses resultados demonstram a existência de uma alta diversidade de anofelinos na área estudada e que mudanças antrópicas no ambiente e variabilidade climática afetam a densidade populacional desses vetores.
Subject(s)
Seasons , Disease Vectors , Malaria , AnophelesABSTRACT
Satellite images were used to study the mangrove distribution patterns in two different climatic regions of Central America: Gulf of Fonseca in Honduras-El Salvador and Sierpe-Térraba in Costa Rica. The Gulf of Fonseca has higher temperature and solar radiation, and lower precipitation, which can explain the higher structural development and species mixing of the Sierpe-Térraba mangrove. In the latter the transition between species or between heights in the same species is clear. The automatic classification made by the Geographic Information System (IDRISI) fits well the field mangrove distribution, but it was necessary to regroup some subdivisions that represent the same land use as identified by transects and an aerial video. Mixed species and clouds produced less satisfactory results in Sierpe-Térraba indicating a need for better satellite image resolution.