Concordancia entre la prueba de puntuación de recurrencia de 21 genes y modelos clínico-patológicos predictivos en pacientes con cáncer de mama temprano en un centro oncológico en Colombia / Concordance between 21-gene recurrence score assay and clinicopathological predictive models in early-breast cancer patients cared for at a cancer center in Colombia

Resumen Introducción: La prueba genómica de recurrencia de 21 genes (PGR21) permite determinar la utilidad de la quimioterapia adyuvante en pacientes con cáncer de mama temprano luminal (CMTL). Se han desarrollado modelos predictivos adicionales, como las ecuaciones de Magee (EM), el modelo Predict (MP) y la puntuación del nomograma de la Universidad de Tennessee (NT). Objetivo: Evaluar la concordancia entre PGR21, EM, MP y NT. Métodos: Se incluyeron pacientes con CMTL unifocal y con resultados de PGR21, EM, MP y NT. Se efectuó subanálisis de mujeres mayores de 50 años. La concordancia se evaluó mediante índice kappa de Cohen (IK). Resultados: Se incluyeron 122 mujeres. La concordancia entre PGR21 y EM (IK = 0.35) y MP (IK = 0.24) fue aceptable (p < 0.001); entre PGR21 y NT fue inferior (IK = 0.16, p = 0.04). Se incluyeron 80 pacientes mayores de 50 años con datos suficientes para calcular los tres modelos. Se encontró concordancia entre la clasificación de bajo riesgo mediante PGR21 y los tres modelos combinados en 36/37 pacientes (valor predictivo negativo de 97.3 %). Conclusión: Se puede omitir la PGR21 en las mujeres mayores de 50 años con CMTL que se clasifica de bajo riesgo en los tres modelos predictivos.

Abstract Introduction: The genomic-based 21-gene recurrence score assay (21-GRSA) allows to determine the usefulness of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with luminal-type early breast cancer (LTEBC). Additional predictive models have also been developed, such as Magee equations (ME), the Predict model (PM), and the Tennessee nomogram score (TNS). Objective: To evaluate the concordance between 21-GRSA, ME, PM and TNS. Methods: Patients with unifocal LTEBC and 21-GRSA, ME, PM and TNS results were included. A subgroup analysis of women older than 50 years was carried out. Concordance between the models and 21-GRSA was evaluated using Cohen's kappa index (KI). Results: One-hundred and twenty-two women were included. Concordance between 21-GRSA and ME (KI = 0.35) and PM (KI = 0.24) was fair (p < 0.001). Concordance between 21-GRSA and TNS was inferior (KI = 0.16, p = 0.04). Eighty patients older than 50 years with sufficient data to calculate all three predictive models were included. Concordance was found between the low-risk classification on 21-GRSA and all three combined models in 36/37 patients (negative predictive value of 97.3%). Conclusion: 21-GRSA can be omitted in women older than 50 years with LTEBC classified with low risk scores on all three predictive models.

Application of the pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC rule) and age-adjusted D-Dimer in patients undergoing computed tomography pulmonary angiography for diagnosis of pulmonary embolism / Aplicação dos critérios PERC e do D-Dímero ajustado para idade em pacientes submetidos a angiotomografia pulmonar para o diagnóstico de embolia pulmonar

Abstract Background Diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) constitutes a challenge for practitioners. Current practice involves use of pre-test probability prediction rules. Several strategies to optimize this process have been explored. Objectives To explore whether application of the pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC rule) and age-adjusted D-dimer (DD) would have reduced the number of computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) examinations performed in patients with suspected PE. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study of adult patients taken for CTPA under suspicion of PE in 2018 and 2020. The PERC rule and age-adjusted DD were applied. The number of cases without indications for imaging studies was estimated and the operational characteristics for diagnosis of PE were calculated. Results 302 patients were included. PE was diagnosed in 29.8%. Only 27.2% of 'not probable' cases according to the Wells criteria had D-dimer assays. Age adjustment would have reduced tomography use by 11.1%, with an AUC of 0.5. The PERC rule would have reduced use by 7%, with an AUC of 0.72. Conclusions Application of age-adjusted D-dimer and the PERC rule to patients taken for CTPA because of suspected PE seems to reduce the number of indications for the procedure.

Resumo Contexto O diagnóstico de embolia pulmonar (EP) representa um desafio para o profissional. A prática atual envolve o uso de modelos de previsão de probabilidade pré-teste e, para otimizar esse processo, várias estratégias têm sido exploradas. Objetivos Investigar se a aplicação dos critérios de exclusão de EP (pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria, PERC) e do D-dímero (DD) ajustado para idade diminui o número de angiografias computadorizadas (ATCs) pulmonares realizadas em pacientes com suspeita de EP. Métodos Estudo transversal retrospectivo com pacientes adultos submetidos a ATC pulmonar com suspeita de EP em 2018 e 2020. Foram aplicados os critérios PERC e o DD ajustado para idade. Foi estimado o número de casos não indicados para exames de imagem, e foram calculadas as características operacionais para o diagnóstico de EP. Resultados Foram incluídos 302 pacientes, dos quais 29,8% apresentaram diagnóstico de EP. Apenas 27,2% dos casos não prováveis ​​de acordo com os critérios de Wells apresentaram DD; o ajuste implicou em uma diminuição de ACTs de 11,1%, com área sob a curva de 0,5. Os critérios PERC diminuiriam em 7%, com área sob a curva de 0,72. Conclusões A aplicação do DD ajustado para idade e dos critérios PERC em pacientes submetidos a ATC pulmonar por suspeita de EP parece diminuir a indicação para tais exames.

Valor de creatinina, potasio y glicemia como predictores de eventos adversos del síndrome coronario agudo

Introducción: En los últimos años la definición de síndrome coronario agudo, ha englobado las diferentes formas de presentación de la cardiopatía isquémica aguda. A pesar de las posibilidades terapéuticas actuales presenta todavía una morbimortalidad elevada y no se cuenta con herramientas de laboratorio para sospechar de manera precoz las complicaciones. Objetivo: Determinar el valor de los cambios de la concentración de creatinina, potasio y glicemia como predictores de eventos adversos del síndrome coronario agudo. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio analítico de cohorte. La muestra estuvo constituída por 124 pacientes. Se confeccionó un formulario donde se recogieron los datos a partir de las historias clínicas, las variables fueron: grupos de edades, sexo, color de piel, diagnóstico, evento adverso, creatinina, potasio y glicemia. Resultados: Predominó el grupo de edad de más de 60 años, el sexo masculino y color de piel blanco. Los principales eventos adversos fueron arritmias y disfunción ventricular izquierda. La creatinina elevada se asoció a disfunción ventricular izquierda, insuficiencia cardíaca y edema agudo del pulmón, la hiperpotasemia con arritmias potencialmente fatales que degeneraron en paro en asistolia y muerte. La hipopotasemia se asoció con arritmias y la hiperglicemia con la recurrencia del episodio isquémico. Conclusiones: La totalidad de los pacientes con valores normales de creatinina, potasio y glicemia no presentaron complicaciones y se demostró su utilidad como predictores de eventos adversos del síndrome coronario agudo.

Introduction: In recent years, the definition of acute coronary syndrome has encompassed the different forms of presentation of acute ischemic heart disease. Despite the current therapeutic possibilities, it still presents a high morbidity and mortality and there are no laboratory tools to suspect complications early. Objective: To determine the value of the changes in the concentration of creatinine, potassium and glycemia as predictors of adverse events of acute coronary syndrome in patients admitted to Hospital Universitario Manuel Ascunce Domenech in the period from October 2017 to October 2018. Methods: A analytical cohort study. The sample consisted of 124 patients. A form was made where the data were collected from the medical records, the variables were: age groups, sex, skin color, diagnosis, adverse event, creatinine, potassium and glycemia. Results: The age group over 60 years old, male sex and white skin color predominated. The main adverse events were arrhythmias and left ventricular dysfunction. Elevated creatinine was associated with left ventricular dysfunction with heart failure and acute pulmonary edema, hyperkalemia was associated with potentially fatal arrhythmias that degenerated into asystole arrest and death. Hypokalemia was associated with arrhythmias and hyperglycemia with the recurrence of the ischemic episode. Conclusions: All the patients with normal values ​​of creatinine, potassium and glycemia without complications and their usefulness as predictors of adverse events of acute coronary syndrome was demonstrated.

Community-acquired pneumonia: comparison of three mortality prediction scores in the emergency department / Neumonía adquirida en la comunidad: comparación de tres puntuaciones de predicción de mortalidad en el servicio de urgencias

Abstract Background: qSOFA is a score to identify patients with suspected infection and risk of complications. Its criteria are like those evaluated in prognostic scores for pneumonia (CRB-65 - CURB-65), but it is not clear which is best for predicting mortality and admission to the ICU. Objective: Compare three scores (CURB-65, CRB-65 and qSOFA) to determine the best tool to identify emergency department patients with pneumonia at increased risk of mortality or intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods: Secondary analysis of three prospective cohorts of patients hospitalized with diagnosis of pneumonia in five Colombian hospitals. Validation and comparison of the score´s accuracies were performed by means of discrimination and calibration measures. Results: Cohorts 1, 2 and 3 included 158, 745 and 207 patients, with mortality rates of 32.3%, 17.2% and 18.4%, and admission to ICU was required for 52.5%, 43.5% and 25.6%, respectively. The best AUC-ROC for mortality was for CURB-65 in cohort 3 (AUC-ROC=0.67). The calibration was adequate (p>0.05) for the three scores. Conclusions: None of these scores proved to be an appropriate predictor for mortality and admission to the ICU. Furthermore, the CRB 65 exhibited the lowest discriminative ability.

RESUMEN Introducción: el qSOFA es un nuevo puntaje propuesto para ayudar a identificar pacientes con sospecha de infección y con alta probabilidad de desarrollar complicaciones graves. Los criterios del qSOFA son similares a los evaluados en los puntajes de pronóstico usados tradicionalmente en neumonía (CRB-65 y CURB-65), pero no está claro cuál es mejor para predecir la mortalidad y la admisión a la UCI en pacientes con neumonía en el servicio de urgencias Objetivo: comparar tres puntajes (CURB-65, CRB-65 y qSOFA) para determinar la mejor herramienta para identificar en servicios de urgencias a los pacientes con neumonía con mayor riesgo de mortalidad o ingreso en la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Métodos: análisis secundario de datos de tres estudios de cohorte prospectivos con pacientes atendidos por urgencias con diagnóstico de neumonía en 5 hospitales de Colombia. Se realizó validación y comparación de la exactitud de los puntajes por medio de medidas de discriminación y de calibración. Resultados: las cohortes 1, 2 y 3 incluyeron 158, 745 y 207 pacientes, con mortalidad de 32.3%, 17.2% y 18.4%, respectivamente. Se requirió la admisión a la UCI para 52.5%, 43.5% y 25.6% pacientes3, respectivamente. La mejor AUC-ROC para mortalidad fue para CURB-65 en la cohorte 3 (AUC-ROC= 0.67). La calibración de los modelos fue adecuada para los tres puntajes (P>0.05). Conclusiones: Ninguno de estos puntajes demostró ser un predictor adecuado de mortalidad e ingreso en UCI. Además, el CRB 65 mostró la capacidad discriminativa más baja.

Validity of the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria (PERC) for ruling out pulmonary embolism in low-risk patients at high altitudes

Abstract Objectives: to validate the diagnostic yield of the PERC score for ruling out pulmonary embolism in low-risk patients at high altitudes (>2500 meters above sea level [ASL]). Methods: a cross-sectional study with diagnostic test analysis in patients over the age of 18 with suspected pulmonary embolism on admission or during hospitalization, who underwent chest computed tomography angiography between August 2009 and January 2020 in a tertiary care hospital located on the Bogotá savannah. The yield of the PERC score was assessed, calculated with an SaO2<95% and an SaO2<90% in patients with different risk levels according to the Wells, Geneva and Pisa scores for pulmonary embolism. Results: one thousand eighty-seven were included in the final analysis, 42% with PE. Patients classified as low-risk using the Wells score had a PERC ACOR calculated with SaO2<95% of 0.56 (95%CI:0.50-0.62) (p=0.049), and calculated with SaO2<90% of 0.60 (95%CI:0.54-0.66) (p=0.002). The ACOR for subjects classified as low-risk using the Geneva score, with a PERC calculated with SaO2<95%, was: 0.53 (95%CI:0.45-0.60) (p=0.459) and for a PERC calculated with SaO2<90% it was: 0.55 (95%CI:0.47-0.62) (P=0.218). The ACOR for subjects with a less than 10% probability of PE according to the Pisa score classification, with a PERC calculated with SaO2<95%, was: 0.54 (95%CI:0.44-0.64)(p=0.422), and for a PERC calculated with SaO2<90% it was: 0.56 (95%CI:0.46-0.66)(p=0.236). Conclusions: the PERC score calculated with an oxygen saturation <90% has a similar diagnostic yield to the PERC score calculated with an oxygen saturation <95% for ruling out PE in patients classified as low-risk by the Wells score at high altitudes (>2,500 meters ASL). (Acta Med Colomb 2021; 46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36104/amc.2021.2010).

Applicability of CT examination decision rules in head injured children / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective To explore the applicability of the three commonly used CT examination decision rules in Chinese head injured children. Methods This prospective observational study included 1538 children and adolescents (aged < 18 years), who were treated at the Emergency Department of First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University after head injuries. The three clinical decision rules include the Children's Head Injury Algorithm for the Prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE; UK); the prediction rule for the identification of children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injury, that was developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN; USA), and the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) rule. Diagnostic accuracy had been evaluated by using the rule-specific predictor variables to predict each rule-specific outcome measure in populations who met inclusion and exclusion criteria for each rule. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and ROC curve were referred to the diagnostic accuracy. Indicators were characterized by 95％ CI. Results Of the 1538 patients, CTs were obtained for 339 patients (22.04％). Forty-nine patients (3.19％) had positive CT results, 8 patients (0.52％) underwent neurosurgery, 2 patients (0.13％) died, and 1 patient (0.07％) may be missed. In this study, CHALICE was applied for 1394 children (90.70％; 95％ CI: 89.24％-92.15％), PECARN for 801 children (52.11％; 95％ CI: 49.62％-54.61％), and CATCH for 325 patients (21.15％; 95％CI: 19.10％-23.19％). The validation sensitivities of CHALICE, PECARN, and CATCH rules were 92.6％(74.2％-98.7％), 100％ (56.1％-100％), and 85.7％ (42.0％-99.2％), respectively; the specificities were 78.1％(75.7％-80.2％), 48.0％ (44.5％-51.5％) and 70.8％ (65.4％-75.6％); positive predictive value were 7.7％ (5.1％-11.3％), 0.9％ (0.4％-1.9％) and 6.1％ (2.5％-13.2％); and negative predictive value were 99.8％ (99.2％-100％), 99.1％ (98.1％-99.6％), and 99.6％ (97.2％-100％), respectively. Conclusions The clinical decision rules of CHALICE, PECARN and CATCH have high sensitivities. The specificity of PECARN rule is lower than those of CHALICE and CATCH rules. The above three clinical decision rules can be used for the decision of CT examination in Chinese children with head injury in practice.

Use of Cranial Computed Tomography (CT) in Elderly Patients Presenting After a Fall: Can We Predict Those Having Abnormal Head CT Scans.

Aims: Identify factors predictive of increased risk of intracranial injury and assess the ability of the non-age related components of the New Orleans head CT criteria (NOC) to guide decision-making. Study Design: Retrospective electronic medical record review and application of decision rule. Place and Duration of Study: Emergency Department (ED) of Vidant Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Brody School of Medicine at East Carolina University; Greenville North Carolina, USA; January 2008 through December 2008 Methodology: Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of patients > 65 years of age coming to our Emergency Department during 2008 with a diagnosis of fall or traumatic injury were reviewed. Demographics, fall/injury details, risk factors, CT performance, and CT findings were recorded. Revisit within 30 days was reviewed. Non-age related NOC were applied to the population. Transfers, known intracranial injury, and multisystem trauma were excluded. Independent predictors of positive findings were sought using logistic regression. Results: We identified 783 patients with fall and traumatic injury. Ninety-six met exclusion criteria, leaving 687 for analysis. Three hundred twenty one patients received head CT; 296 met the nonage NOC for head CT. Twelve (3.1%) abnormal head CTs were identified; nine showed an acute finding. Acute findings were not predicted by any independent variable. All 12 of the abnormal head CTs (nine acute, three chronic) were identified by the non-age NOC. Forty five patients presented again within 30 days with no injuries noted. Conclusion: Age over 65 did not increase the risk for acutely abnormal head CT in the patient presenting to the ED after a fall. No single factor was predictive of acutely abnormal head CT. The use of the non-age related NOC predicted those patients having an abnormal head CT with 100% accuracy. Age may not independently necessitate head CT after a fall.

AN APPROACH TO CHEST INFECTIONS IN ADULTS

Chest infections are a diverse group of infections of the airways and lungs, the most common of which are pneumonia and acute bronchitis. A well-taken history and examination will often reveal the type of chest infection a patient has, guide the choice of antibiotics and reveal features that would prompt a referral to hospital. Many of these infections can be treated on an outpatient basis in the community. Some will need a referral for hospital admission or respiratory specialist review. This paper will cover an approach to history and examination in patients with symptoms of chest infection. Several validated tools to aid clinical decision-making will be covered and these provide evidence-based and useful guidelines to a busy family physician. This paper will also cover some current antibiotic guidelines, a patient’s journey through an emergency department visit, and some advice to patients on discharge.

Clinical decision rules for the application of computed tomography in children with minor head injury / 中国小儿急救医学

Pediatric head injury is the leading cause of death and disability,about 40% to 60% of kids of head injury get a CT,and the majority are those with minor head injury,about 10% of these CT scans are positive.Clinical decision rules for pediatric head injury exist to identify children at risk of traumatic brain injury.Those of the highest quality are children's head injury algorithm for the prediction of important clinical events(CHALICE),Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network(PECARN)and the Canadian as-sessment of tomography for childhood head injury(CATCH)clinical decision rules.This review aimed to systematically introduce primary clinical decision rules for children with minor head injury and compare them for diagnostic accuracy in detecting intracranial injury and injury requiring neurosurgery.

Propuesta de reglas de decisión en las evaluaciones económicas de tecnologías sanitarias para el contexto cubano / Proposals of decision rules in economic assessment of health technologies for the Cuban context

INTRODUCCIÓN: Aunque las evaluaciones económicas en el sector sanitario cubano han crecido en número y en calidad, con poca periodicidad son utilizadas en la toma de decisiones, ni se solicitan con frecuencia. Una de las posibles causas para no emplearlas es que casi ninguna muestra las reglas de decisión aplicadas por los investigadores para la alternativa que proponen, lo que incrementa la incertidumbre de los encargados de tomar decisiones. OBJETIVO: Presentar un grupo de reglas de decisión en evaluaciones económicas que forman parte de la literatura. RESULTADOS: Se presentan criterios de decisión para evaluaciones económicas de tipo costo efectividad (plano costo efectividad); costo utilidad (considerada una variante de la técnica costo efectividad) emplea como criterio de decisión el plano costo efectividad también; costo beneficio utiliza el valor actual neto, la razón costo beneficio bruta y la tasa interna de rendimiento. CONCLUSIÓN: La aplicación de reglas de decisión en las evaluaciones económicas contribuye a la reducción de la incertidumbre en el momento de decidir entre alternativas

INTRODUCTION: Although the economic assessments in the Cuban health sector have increased in number and in quality, they are neither used frequently used in the decision-making nor are frequently requested. One of the potential causes of this non-use is that almost any shows of decision rules applied by researchers for the own alternative increasing the uncertainty of those charged of decisions-making. OBJECTIVE: To present a series of decision rules in economic assessments to be part of the literature. RESULTS: Some decision criteria are presented for economic assessment of cost-effectiveness ( cost-effectiveness plan); cost-usefulness (a variant of cost-effectiveness technique) which uses as decision criterion also the cost-effectiveness plan; cost-benefit uses the net current value, the gross cost-benefit ratio and the performance internal rate. CONCLUSION: The researches related to economic evaluations must to be enclosed by the decision rules on the proposed alternatives, thus it allow to decision-maker to make the choice