ABSTRACT
Objective To assess and compare the predicted abilities of PRE- DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC two delirium prediction models in ICU patients. Methods From January 2017 to April 2017, 265 critically ill patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in this study. The clinical data of all the included patients, respectively calculated the scores with both PRE-DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC rating software were collected. Forecasting performance of two different models of discrimination and calibration were assessed. 2 medical staff assessed 20 patients with the Chinese version PRE-DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC,while the intraclass correlation coefficients were accumulated to evaluate the inter-rater reliability. Results The average scores of PRE-DELIRIC were46.41 ± 14.05in delirium group and20.08 ± 9.96 in patients without delirium, the difference between scores was statistically significant (t=14.34, P<0.05). The average scores of E-PRE-DELIRIC were36.23±13.34in delirium group and14.45±9.56 in patients without delirium, the difference between scores was statistically significant (t=14.59, P<0.05). The AUROCC and its 95％CI of the PRE-DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC for prediction of delirium were 0.928(0.891-0.965) and 0.904(0.861-0.947) respectively in all patients. Discrimination was generally good for two models. The PRE-DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC sensitivity were 0.841, 0.812, specificity was 0.939, 0.913, the threshold values of PRE-DELIRIC model was 36.5％and E-PRE-DELIRIC model was 30.5％. The Youden′s index of PRE–DELIRIC model was 0.779, which better than 0.725 of E-PRE-PREDIRIC model. Conclusions The PRE-DELIRIC and E-PRE-DELIRIC models both have high accuracy in predicting delirium of patients in intensive care unit. PRE-DELIRIC does better performance than E-PRE-DELIRIC, but has imitation in terms of time. E-PRE-DELIRIC model can be used in ICU patients who develop delirium within 24 h following admission.