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Species distribution model, a mathematical model theoretically based on the temporal and spatial locations of species in the ecosystem and their associations with other species, is useful to display the current species distribution and predict the future species distribution, which has been widely applied in ecology, biogeography and spatial transmission of infectious diseases. Integrated species distribution model is a comprehensive, summative and reliable combination model that simultaneously uses multiple species distribution models or integrates multiple data sources for modeling. This review describes the theory and classification of species distribution models, and summarizes the creation and verification of integrated species distribution models and their applications in parasitic disease prevention and control. During the practical applications of integrated species distribution models, the study scale, niche matching, big data utilization, combination of multidisciplinary methods and knowledge background and ecological implications should be emphasized.
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Objective To create a model based on meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis during the flood season, so as to provide insights into the surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis. Methods An interactive schistosomiasis forecast system was created using the open-access R software. The schistosomiasis risk index was used as a basic parameter, and the species distribution model of Oncomelania hupensis snails was generated according to the cumulative rainfall and temperature to predict the probability of O. hupensis snail distribution, so as to identify the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood season. Results The framework of the web page was built using the Shiny package in the R program, and an interactive and visualization system was successfully created to predict the distribution of O. hupensis snails, containing O. hupensis snail surveillance site database, meteorological and environmental data. In this system, the snail distribution area may be displayed and the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission may be predicted using the species distribution model. This predictive system may rapidly generate the schistosomiasis transmission risk map, which is simple and easy to perform. In addition, the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission were predicted to be concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the flood period. Conclusions A schistosomiasis forecast system is successfully created, which is accurate and rapid to utilize meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood period.
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Introduction: The Black-headed Bushmaster (Lachesis melanocephala) is a large venomous snake that inhabits tropical moist forest, wet forest, montane and premontane wet forest in Southwestern Costa Rica and extreme Western Panama. Objective: We assign a neotype for the species due to the loss of the original holotype and update the information on its geographical distribution, natural history, and conservation status. Methods: To determine the conservation status of L. melanocephala, we modeled its potential distribution using the species` locality records and distribution modeling analysis implemented in MaxEnt. Based on the species' potential distribution, we evaluate the loss of its original habitat and estimate the percentage of its distribution area that is currently protected by the country's protected area system. Results: The potential distribution of the species was estimated at 10 139 km2, including areas where the species currently occurs and historical areas where the species has been registered but is nowadays considered locally extinct. About 29 % of that potential distribution overlaps with protected wild areas, so less than a third of the potential distribution of the species is under protection. Conclusions: During the last decade, accelerated habitat loss and growing evidence of declining natural populations indicate the need for urgent protective measures to prevent the extinction of this species in the foreseeable future.
Introducción: La serpiente Plato Negro (Lachesis melanocephala) es una especie venenosa de gran tamaño, endémica de los bosques lluviosos del Pacífico sur y suroeste de Costa Rica y el extremo oeste de Panamá. Objetivo: Se asigna un neotipo para la especie debido a la pérdida del holotipo original y se presentan datos actualizados de su distribución geográfica, historia natural y estado de conservación. Métodos: Para determinar el estado de conservación de L. melanocephala, reconstruimos su distribución potencial utilizando los registros de localidad de la especie y el análisis de modelado de distribución implementado en MaxEnt. En función de la distribución potencial de la especie, evaluamos la pérdida de su hábitat original y calculamos el porcentaje de su área de distribución que actualmente está protegida por el sistema de áreas protegidas del país. Resultados: La distribución potencial de la especie se estimó en 10 139 km2, incluyendo áreas donde la especie se encuentra actualmente y áreas históricas donde la especie se ha registrado, pero se considera localmente extinta. Cerca del 29 % de esa distribución potencial se traslapa con áreas silvestres protegidas, por lo que menos de una tercera parte de la distribución potencial de la especie está bajo protección. Conclusiones: La degradación acelerada de su hábitat y la disminución evidente de sus poblaciones durante la última década señalan la necesidad de tomar medidas urgentes de protección para evitar el riesgo de extinción a corto plazo o mediano plazo.
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Animals , Crotalinae/anatomy & histology , Costa Rica , Animal DistributionABSTRACT
Objective To explore the value of multiple non-gaussian distribution models DWI in evaluating hepatic ischemia reperfusion injury (HIRI) model in rats.Methods Forty-two SD rats were divided into 7 groups by random numeric table method.Each group had 6 rats.The 7 groups were 6 h,12 h,1 d,3 d,7 d,14 d group after HIRI and control group,respectively.The experimental groups underwent right hepatic portal vein and hepatic artery ligation,and received reperfusion 3 h after operation.MRI scanning (T1WI,T2WI,single b-values DWI and 15 b-values DWI) was performed at 6 h,12 h,1 d,3 d,7 d and 14 d after reperfusion.The control group underwent sham operation and MRI scanning.According to monoexponential model,biexponential model,threxponential model,stretched-exponential model DWI and diffusion kurtosis imaging,many parametres were obtained and their dynamic changes at each time point were observed.The parameters included standard apparent diffusion coefficient (ADCs),pure diffusion coefficients (D),pseudodiffusion coefficients (D*),perfusion fraction (f),ultra-high apparent diffusion coefficient (ADCu),distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC),water diffusion heterogeneity index (or),mean diffusion coefficient (MD) and mean diffusion kurtosis (MK).One way ANOVA was used to compare the differences of parameters among different groups.Results MRI examination and pathological examination were successfully completed in all rats.The right hepatic lobe in the experimental groups appeared hypointense on T1WI and hyperintense on T2WI relative to control group from 6 h after operation.The infarcted liver lobe in the experimental groups became significantly smaller at 1 week after HIRI and almost disappeared at 2 weeks after HIRI.The findings of DWI at different b-values were consistent with those at T2WI.There were significant differences in parameters among 6 h,12 h,1 d,3 d,7 d,14 d groups after HIRI and control group (P＜0.05).There were significant differences among 12 h after HIRI,1 d after HIRI,3 d after HIRI and 6 h after HIRI,7 d after HIRI,14 d after HIRI,control group concerning ADCs values respectively (P＜0.05).There were significant differences among 6 h after HIRI,12 h after HIRI,1 d after HIRI,3 d after HIRI,7 d after HIRI and 14 d after HIRI,control group concerning D,D*,f,ADCu,α,DDC,MK values respectively (P＜0.05).In addition,there were significant differences among 1 d after HIRI,3 d after HIRI and 6 h after HIRI,12 h after HIRI,7 d after HIRI and 14 d after HIRI,control group concerning D values respectively (P＜0.05).There were significant differences among 6 h after HIRI,12 h after HIRI,1 d after HIRI,3 d after HIRI and 7 d after HIRI,14 d after HIRI,control group concerning f values respectively (P＜0.05).There were significant differences among 12 h after HIRI and 14 d after HIRI,control group concerning MD values respectively (P＜0.05).There were significant differences between 1 d after HIRI and 14 d after HIRI concerning MD values (P＜0.05).Conclusion Multiple non-gaussian distribution models DWI is superior to conventional DWI in evaluating HIRI model in rats.
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OBJECTIVE:To provide policy recommendations for optimizing medicines distribution system reform in China.METHODS:Literature review and field investigation were used to mapping the medicines distribution system. Problems and influ-ential factors were analyzed and policy recommendations for optimizing the medicines distribution system reform were put forward. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS:Medicines distribution system has been undergoing a rapid development and transformation under the overall health system reform. Most medicines distributors are still with small scale,low concentration,high cost,low profitabil-ity,lack of core competence, development of new form facing challenges. A large number of drug distributors still follow the tradi-tional business model,know little about modern drug supply chain management,and not understand their appropriate roles under the new social and economic development. Medical E-commerce face both opportunities and challenges in the process of develop-ing. Drug distribution industry needs vertical and horizontal integration, speeds up the socialization of the third party logistics and the healthy development of the medical electricity supplier, improves and perfects the drug distribution supervision system which is suitable for the healthy development of new form.
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Objective: To prepare Periplaneta americana extract CII-3-loaded nanoparticles for oral administration, and to investigate the in vitro release profile of CII-3-loaded nanoparticles and the protection of nanoparticles for CII-3 extract in vitro. Methods: The in vitro release behavior of the CII-3-loaded nanoparticles was carried out in the artificial gastric juice, artificial intestinal juice, and pH 7.4 PBS, and the fitting of different models was performed based on the accumulative drug release percentages observed by Folin-reagent method; The amino acid content of CII-3 and CII-3-loaded nanoparticles at different time points in artificial gastric juice was determinated by ninhydrin colorimetry and degradation rates of the two drugs were compared. Results: The mean size of the resulted nanoparticles was about (109.9 ± 0.6) nm and the Zeta potential was (-37.5 ± 3.5) mV; The accumulative release level of CII-3-loaded nanoparticles Qt was (22.63 ± 1.17)% in the artificial gastric juice in the first 2 h, and then, in the artificial intestinal juice, the accumulative release level of CII-3-loaded nanoparticles over a period of 60 h was (72.35 ± 1.90)%, which was in line with Higuchi model release equations, Qt = 8.287 2 t1/2 + 7.758 6. The accumulative release level of CII-3-loaded nanoparticles was (72.67 ± 1.65)% over a period of 10 d, which was in line with Weibull equation, lnln[1/(1-Qt)] = 0.403 7 ln(t-0.411 9)-1.713 3; The CII-3 was completely degraded in 4 h in the artificial gastric juice, while about 70% of CII-3 contained in nanoparticles was degraded. Conclusion: CII-3-loaded nanoparticles have a satisfactory sustained in vitro release effect, and the stability of CII-3 contained in the nanoparticles is improved in the artificial gastric juice.
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Abstract Recently, ecological niche models have been employed to investigate the potential geographical distribution of species. However, it is necessary to analyze the vast number of publications on this topic to understand the trends and biases of research using ecological niche models (ENMs). Therefore, this study aims to investigate trends in the scientific literature regarding studies on ENMs. For the quantitative analysis of the literature on ENMs, we performed a search in the Thomson ISI (Web of Science) database between 1991 and 2013. The search identified 3042 papers containing preselected keywords in either the title or abstract. The results showed that the number of papers has increased over the years (r=0.77, P 0.001), with a sharp increase in recent years, highlighting the widespread use of the ENMs. There was an increase in the diversity of journals that published papers about ENMs (r=0.97, P 0.001). The research was conducted in different countries, predominantly the United States of America (550 papers), and the most commonly used method was the Maximum Entropy method (312 papers). Regarding the taxonomic group, most research has been conducted on plants (402 papers, or 28.36% of the total). There was no relationship between the modeling method used and the taxonomic group studied (2=4.8, P=0.15). Finally, the wide availability of biological, environmental and computational resources has elicited the broad use of tools for ENMs. Despite the conceptual discussions of the ENMs, this method is currently the most effective way to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of species, and to predict the distribution under different environmental conditions (i.e., future or past scenarios).
Resumo Recentemente, modelos de nicho têm sido empregados para investigar a distribuição geográfica potencial de espécies. Porém, é necessário analisar a vasta quantidade de publicações sobre o referido tema, a fim de compreender as tendências e vieses das pesquisas que usam modelos de nicho ecológico (MNEs). Portanto, esse trabalho tem por objetivo investigar as tendências da literatura científica de trabalhos sobre MNEs. Para a análise quantitativa das publicações sobre MNEs, foi realizada uma busca na base de dados Thomson ISI (Web of Science), entre o período de 1991 a 2013. A pesquisa agrupou 3042 documentos que continham nas palavras-chave, no título ou no resumo os termos selecionados para a busca. Os resultados mostraram que de forma geral o número de artigos tem aumentado ao longo dos anos (r=0,77, P 0,001), com um acentuado crescimento nos anos mais recentes, destacando o amplo uso de MNEs. Ao longo dos anos percebeu-se um aumento da diversidade de revistas que publicam sobre o assunto (r=0,97, P 0,001). As pesquisas têm sido desenvolvidas em diferentes países, com predomínio dos Estados Unidos (550 artigos) e o método mais utilizado foi o de Máxima Entropia (312 artigos). Quanto ao grupo taxonômico, a maioria dos estudos tem ocorrido com plantas (402 artigos ou 28,36% do total de artigos). Não houve relação entre método de modelagem e grupo taxonômico (2=4,8, P=0,15). Por fim, a ampla disponibilidade de dados biológicos, ambientais e recursos computacionais tem propiciado um amplo uso de MNEs. Apesar das discussões conceituais sobre MNEs, o método atualmente é o mais eficaz para conhecer a distribuição geográfica potencial das espécies e ainda projetar essa distribuição sob diferentes condições ambientais (i.e. cenários futuros, passado).
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Abstract Recently, ecological niche models have been employed to investigate the potential geographical distribution of species. However, it is necessary to analyze the vast number of publications on this topic to understand the trends and biases of research using ecological niche models (ENMs). Therefore, this study aims to investigate trends in the scientific literature regarding studies on ENMs. For the quantitative analysis of the literature on ENMs, we performed a search in the Thomson ISI (Web of Science) database between 1991 and 2013. The search identified 3042 papers containing preselected keywords in either the title or abstract. The results showed that the number of papers has increased over the years (r=0.77, P<0.001), with a sharp increase in recent years, highlighting the widespread use of the ENMs. There was an increase in the diversity of journals that published papers about ENMs (r=0.97, P<0.001). The research was conducted in different countries, predominantly the United States of America (550 papers), and the most commonly used method was the Maximum Entropy method (312 papers). Regarding the taxonomic group, most research has been conducted on plants (402 papers, or 28.36% of the total). There was no relationship between the modeling method used and the taxonomic group studied (χ2=4.8, P=0.15). Finally, the wide availability of biological, environmental and computational resources has elicited the broad use of tools for ENMs. Despite the conceptual discussions of the ENMs, this method is currently the most effective way to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of species, and to predict the distribution under different environmental conditions (i.e., future or past scenarios).
Resumo Recentemente, modelos de nicho têm sido empregados para investigar a distribuição geográfica potencial de espécies. Porém, é necessário analisar a vasta quantidade de publicações sobre o referido tema, a fim de compreender as tendências e vieses das pesquisas que usam modelos de nicho ecológico (MNEs). Portanto, esse trabalho tem por objetivo investigar as tendências da literatura científica de trabalhos sobre MNEs. Para a análise quantitativa das publicações sobre MNEs, foi realizada uma busca na base de dados Thomson ISI (Web of Science), entre o período de 1991 a 2013. A pesquisa agrupou 3042 documentos que continham nas palavras-chave, no título ou no resumo os termos selecionados para a busca. Os resultados mostraram que de forma geral o número de artigos tem aumentado ao longo dos anos (r=0,77, P<0,001), com um acentuado crescimento nos anos mais recentes, destacando o amplo uso de MNEs. Ao longo dos anos percebeu-se um aumento da diversidade de revistas que publicam sobre o assunto (r=0,97, P<0,001). As pesquisas têm sido desenvolvidas em diferentes países, com predomínio dos Estados Unidos (550 artigos) e o método mais utilizado foi o de Máxima Entropia (312 artigos). Quanto ao grupo taxonômico, a maioria dos estudos tem ocorrido com plantas (402 artigos ou 28,36% do total de artigos). Não houve relação entre método de modelagem e grupo taxonômico (χ2=4,8, P=0,15). Por fim, a ampla disponibilidade de dados biológicos, ambientais e recursos computacionais tem propiciado um amplo uso de MNEs. Apesar das discussões conceituais sobre MNEs, o método atualmente é o mais eficaz para conhecer a distribuição geográfica potencial das espécies e ainda projetar essa distribuição sob diferentes condições ambientais (i.e. cenários futuros, passado).
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Animals , Ecosystem , Ecology/methods , Models, Biological , Ecology/trends , PlantsABSTRACT
Objective To evaluate the implementation of hospital pharmacy distribution for inpatient pharmacy services , with impact on understanding investigation for ward nurse awareness of the drug storage management ,and to optimize ward base drug administration .Methods By improving the drug delivery service process in a hospital ward ,the statistical base vari-ety and number of the base drugs were counted two years in 2012 and in 2014 respectively ;with a questionnaire analysis in ward nurses on base drug awareness and drug management situation .Results After the drug distribution process optimization , time that nurses receive medicines from pharmacies decreased from 90 min to 20 min;base ward drugs from 2012 of 16 catego-ries ,237 varieties ,down to 2014 of 13 categories ,209 species .Questionnaire survey results showed that the ward nurse awareness of drug administration should be improved further .Conclusion By optimizing the drug distribution process ,reduced storage ward medicines can increase the time nurses for patients and services as well as reduce the risk faced by the ward base drug administration .
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The Gray-backed Tachuri (Polystictus superciliaris) is a Tyrannidae restricted to eastern Brazilian highlands. Its population and range are still thought to be declining mainly due to habitat loss, caused by land use. We evaluated the impacts on its range (increase or decrease, displacement in latitude and altitude), considering possible effects caused by inappropriate land use and climatic changes. For this purpose, we modeled its current range and estimated its overlap between the predicted area and future scenarios. We also analyzed the efficiency of the Brazilian reserves to the species’ protection. The range established by the Maxent model was 76.1% lower than that available in the literature and presented a decrease in the future. Range contraction for the periods under consideration ranged from 22.5% to 77.3%. The distribution center shifts to the southwest (from 102.5 km to 275.4 km) and to higher elevations (1,102 m to 1,428 m). From the predicted range, 20% are under some kind of human occupation. The Brazilian reserves partially protect the species, with only 12% of its range, from the 44.2% expected. Based on these predictions, and depending on the species’ dispersal ability and adaptation, it may become vulnerable in the period of 2080. This study demonstrates that the most important areas for maintaining populations of P. superciliaris now and in the future are those located in the ‘Iron Quadrangle’, especially the Serra da Gandarela, where it was partially protected by the recently decreed Gandarela National Park. This region should receive special attention because it is strongly threatened by iron mining in areas relevant for conservation located outside this reserve.
O papa-moscas-de-costas-cinzentas (Polystictus superciliaris) é uma espécie de Tyrannidae endêmica dos topos de montanha do leste do Brasil. Sua população e área de distribuição estão em declínio principalmente devido è perda de habitat causada pelo uso inadequado da terra. Nós avaliamos os impactos sobre sua distribuição (aumento ou diminuição, deslocamento em latitude e altitude), considerando os possíveis efeitos causados pelo uso do solo e pelas mudanças climáticas. Para esse propósito, modelamos a distribuição atual e avaliamos a sobreposição entre a área predita e os cenários futuros. Também avaliamos a eficiência das Unidades de Conservação brasileiras para a proteção da espécie. A área de distribuição estimada por meio do programa Maxent foi 79,1% menor que a área encontrada na literatura, apresentando uma tendência a diminuição no futuro. Foi projetada uma contração de 22,5% a 77,3% da área de distribuição atual para o futuro. O centro da área de distribuição deslocou-se para o sudeste (de 102,5 a 275,4 km) e para áreas com alta elevação (1.102 m a 1.428 m). Da área projetada, 20% encontra-se sob algum tipo de ocupação humana. As Unidades de Conservação brasileiras protegem parcialmente a espécie, com somente 12% de sua distribuição quando o esperado seriam 44,2%. Baseado nas projeções e, dependendo das habilidades de dispersão e adaptação da espécie, ela pode se tornar vulnerável no período de 2080. Este estudo demonstrou que as áreas mais importantes para a manutenção de P. superciliaris na atualidade e em períodos futuros situam-se no Quadrilátero Ferrífero, especialmente na Serra da Gandarela, onde parte foi recentemente decretada como Parque Nacional da Gandarela. Essa região deve receber atenção especial por ser altamente ameaçada pela exploração do minério de Ferro e por áreas relevantes continuarem desprotegidas fora da abrangência do novo Parque.
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Estudos probabilísticos envolvendo variáveis climáticas são de extrema importância para as atividades da agropecuária, construção civil, turismo, transporte, dentre outros. Visando contribuir para o planejamento da agricultura irrigada, este trabalho teve como objetivos comparar distribuições de probabilidade ajustadas às séries históricas decendiais e mensais, e estimar as precipitações prováveis para o município de Barbacena, MG. Foram estudados os meses de dezembro, janeiro e fevereiro, no período de 1942 a 2003, constituindo-se séries históricas com 62 anos de observações. As lâminas diárias foram totalizadas em períodos mensais e decendiais, sendo aplicadas as distribuições log-Normal 2 parâmetros, log-Normal 3 parâmetros e Gama. Para avaliar a adequabilidade das distribuições, nos períodos estudados, utilizou-se o teste de Qui-quadrado (chi2), ao nível de 5 por cento de significância. As precipitações prováveis foram estimadas para cada período estudado utilizando a distribuição que apresentou o menor valor de chi2, nos níveis de probabilidade de excedência de 75, 90 e 98 por cento. A distribuição Gama foi a que melhor se ajustou aos dados. O estudo de precipitações prováveis é uma boa ferramenta no auxílio da tomada de decisão quanto ao planejamento e uso da irrigação.
Probabilistic studies involving climatic variables are of extreme importance for farming activities, construction, tourism, among others. Seeking to contribute for the planning of irrigate agriculture, this work had as objectives to compare adjusted probability distribution models to the monthly and decennial historical series and to estimate the probable rainfall for the Barbacena County, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Rainfall data of December, January and February, from 1942 to 2003, were studied, constituting historical series with 62 years of observations. Daily rainfall depths were added for 10 and 30 days, applying Gama, log-Normal 2 and log-Normal 3 parameters probability distribution models. Probability distributions models, were compared with Qui-square statistical test, at 5 percent significance level. Probable rainfall was estimated for each period, using the best distribution, which was evaluated based on the smallest Qui-square value, for the probability occurrence levels of 75, 90 and 98 percent. Gama probability distribution was the most adequate model.