ABSTRACT
Objective To understand the spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) at scale of township and provide evidence for the better prevention and control of HFMD and allocation of medical resources.Methods The incidence data of HFMD in 108 counties (district) in Shandong province in 2010 were collected.Downscaling interpolation was conducted by using area-to-area Poisson Kriging method.The interpolation results were visualized by using geographic information system (GIS).The county (district) incidence was interpolated into township incidence to get the distribution of spatial distribution of incidence of township.Results In the downscaling interpolation,the range of the fitting semi-variance equation was 20.38 km.Within the range,the incidence had correlation with each other.The fitting function of scatter diagram of estimated and actual incidence of HFMD at country level was y=1.053 1x,R2=0.99.The incidences at different scale were consistent.Conclusions The incidence of HFMD had spatial autocorrelation within 20.38 km.When HFMD occurs in one place,it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and allocation of medical resource in the surrounding area within 20.38 km.Area to area Poisson Kriging method based downscaling research can be used in spatial visualization of HFMD incidence.
ABSTRACT
Objective To understand the spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) at scale of township and provide evidence for the better prevention and control of HFMD and allocation of medical resources.Methods The incidence data of HFMD in 108 counties (district) in Shandong province in 2010 were collected.Downscaling interpolation was conducted by using area-to-area Poisson Kriging method.The interpolation results were visualized by using geographic information system (GIS).The county (district) incidence was interpolated into township incidence to get the distribution of spatial distribution of incidence of township.Results In the downscaling interpolation,the range of the fitting semi-variance equation was 20.38 km.Within the range,the incidence had correlation with each other.The fitting function of scatter diagram of estimated and actual incidence of HFMD at country level was y=1.053 1x,R2=0.99.The incidences at different scale were consistent.Conclusions The incidence of HFMD had spatial autocorrelation within 20.38 km.When HFMD occurs in one place,it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and allocation of medical resource in the surrounding area within 20.38 km.Area to area Poisson Kriging method based downscaling research can be used in spatial visualization of HFMD incidence.
ABSTRACT
Different climate change scenarios were revised and compared for Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. They were generated using different tools (MAGICC/SCENGEN, PRECIS and SDSM) and for the 2080 (2070-2099) time slice. Results shown in general a high dependence with the General Circulation Model, the downscaling technique and the socioeconomic scenario used. All scenarios presented an increase in mean and variance of the air surface temperature annual cycle. That result is also consistent with a future global warming scenario. Results for rainfall are different among each other. Most of the scenarios show an increase in the mean annual rainfall accumulation. However, it is not possible to establish a clear trend when annual variability is considered, mainly because almost all of the scenarios studied projected an increase in the annual rainfall accumulates.
Se revisaron y compararon escenarios de cambio climáticos utilizando distintas técnicas (MAGICC/SCEN- GEN, PRECIS and SDSM) con el objetivo de evaluar posibles cambios de temperatura y precipitación en el Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, para el horizonte temporal del 2080 (2070-2099). Los resultados reflejan una dependencia importante con el Modelo de Circulación General, el método de ajuste de escala y con el escenario socio-económico usado. Los escenarios obtenidos reflejan un aumento en la media y la varianza del ciclo anual de la temperatura superficial del aire, siendo consistentes con un calentamiento global futuro. Los resultados para la precipitación difieren entre sí. Se observó que la mayoría de los escenarios analizados proyectan aumentos en al acumulado medio del ciclo anual, sin embargo, al considerar su variabilidad, no fue posible establecer una tendencia clara hacia un aumento o una disminución, debido principalmente a que casi todos los escenarios estudiados proyectan un incremento en la variabilidad del acumulado anual de la precipitación.