Severe coral bleaching of Siderastrea stellata at the only atoll in the South Atlantic driven by sequential Marine Heatwaves / Branqueamento severo de Siderastrea stellata no único atol do Atlântico Sul impulsionado por ondas de calor marinhas sequenciais

Abstract: Threatened by global warming and extreme climatic events, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Marine Heatwaves (MHW), coral reefs worldwide faced the worst bleaching and mortality event between 2014 and 2017, induced by the 2015/2016 ENSO. We evaluated the impacts of ENSO and MHW episodes on bleaching and mortality frequencies of Siderastrea stellata at Rocas Atoll, Southwestern Atlantic, using visual censuses conducted in 2016, 2017 and 2019. Bleaching rate varied significantly along the sampling period (11.71% in 2016, 1.52% in 2017, and 88% in 2019), but mortality was always less than 4%. Bleaching events in Atlantic reefs have been constantly associated with ENSO, until these recent events of the last two years. We suggest that MHW were probably the primary driver of the observed bleaching, especially in 2019, when much higher bleaching rates were observed than in ENSO periods. Although Southwestern Atlantic massive corals are considered more resistant to thermal stress than reefs corals worldwide, the strong events registered since 2019 highlight the need for continuous monitoring to better understand coral bleaching dynamics and improve predictions on the effects of global change in the region.

Resumo: Ameaçados pelo aquecimento global e eventos climáticos extremos, como El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENSO) e Ondas de Calor Marinhas (MHW), os recifes de coral em todo o mundo enfrentaram o pior evento de branqueamento e mortalidade entre 2014 e 2017, induzido pelo ENSO 2015/2016. Nesse estudo, avaliamos os impactos dos episódios de ENSO e MHW nas frequências de branqueamento e mortalidade de Siderastrea stellata no Atol de Rocas, Atlântico Sudoeste, a partir de censos visuais realizados em 2016, 2017 e 2019. O branqueamento variou significativamente ao longo do período de amostragem (11,71% em 2016, 1,52% em 2017, e 88% em 2019), mas a mortalidade não, sendo sempre inferior a 4%. Eventos de branqueamento em recifes do Atlântico têm sido constantemente associados ao ENSO, até os eventos recentes dos últimos dois anos. Nós sugerimos que as MHW foram provavelmente o principal impulsionador do branqueamento observado, especialmente em 2019, quando as taxas de branqueamento observadas foram maiores do que nos períodos de ENSO. Embora os corais massivos do Atlântico Sudoeste sejam considerados mais resistentes ao estresse térmico quando comparados com corais recifais de outros oceanos, os fortes eventos registrados desde 2019 destacam a necessidade de monitoramento contínuo para entender melhor a dinâmica do branqueamento de corais e melhorar as previsões sobre os efeitos das mudanças globais na região.

Conocimientos y prácticas en prevención de dengue en ciudad afectada por epidemia del dengue posfenómeno de El Niño Costero, Perú, 2018 / Knowledge and practices regarding dengue prevention in a Peruvian city affected by a dengue epidemic following the 2018 Coastal Child

Objetivo: Describir los conocimientos y prácticas sobre las medidas preventivas de dengue en los pobladores de ciudad afectada por epidemia del dengue posfenómeno de El Niño costero, Perú, 2018, y comparar los conocimientos con el cuestionario ENAPRES 2016. Métodos: se realizó un estudio descriptivo transversal en el que se recolectó información mediante dos cuestionarios consecutivos. La muestra se obtuvo con nivel de confianza del 95 por ciento, proporción esperada 29,1 por ciento, precisión de 4,5 por ciento, y población de 8 210 casas, y considerando pérdidas será una muestra de 380. Resultados: La población estuvo constituida principalmente por mujeres (73,7 por ciento), con edad promedio de 42,5 años, 41,8 por ciento secundaria completa, 54,5 por ciento amas de casa. El medio de obtención de información más frecuente fue el centro de salud (48,7 por ciento). El 21,1 por ciento manifestó conocer la enfermedad, el 75 por ciento conocía la transmisión por zancudo y el 86,1 por ciento que este se reproduce en aguas estancadas. Además, 69,2 por ciento reconoció los síntomas de la enfermedad. El 9,7 por ciento señaló medidas para eliminar criaderos, mientras el 20,5 por ciento reconoció medidas para evitar ser picado. El 83,2 por ciento manifestó conocer el abate y su uso. Los síntomas más identificados por la población fueron fiebre, dolor de cabeza, dolor de huesos y/o articulaciones y dolor muscular. Según la comparación realizada con el cuestionario ENAPRES 2016, hubo aumento de conocimiento de los signos de alarma (sangrado, náuseas y vómitos). Conclusiones: Los conocimientos en prevención de dengue fueron escasos y las prácticas observadas resultaron insuficientes en la población de Tumán, pero mejoró el conocimiento en algunas medidas de prevención con respecto a 2016(AU)

Objective: Describe the knowledge and practices regarding dengue prevention measures among the residents of a Peruvian city affected by a dengue epidemic following the 2018 Coastal Child, and compare the knowledge using the ENAPRES 2016 questionnaire. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in which information was collected by means of two consecutive questionnaires. The sample was obtained with a 95 percent confidence interval, a 29.1 percent expected proportion, 4.5 percent precision and a population of 8 210 households, and considering losses will be a sample of 380. Results: The population was predominantly female (73.7 percent), with a mean age of 42.5 years, 41.8 percent complete secondary schooling, and 54.5 percent housewives. The source of information most commonly used was the health center (48.7 percent). 21.1 percent reported knowing about the disease, 75 percent knew that it was transmitted by mosquitoes, and 86.1 percent knew that mosquitoes reproduce in stagnant water. In addition, 69.2 percent recognized the symptoms of the disease. 9.7 percent referred to measures to eliminate breeding sites, and 20.5 percent to measures to avoid being bitten. 83.2 percent stated they knew about temefos and its use. The symptoms most commonly identified by the population were fever, headache, bone and/or joint pain, and muscle pain. According to the comparison made with the ENAPRES 2016 questionnaire, there was an increase in knowledge about alarm signs (bleeding, nausea and vomiting). Conclusions: Knowledge about dengue prevention was scarce and the practices observed among the population of Tumán were insufficient, but improvement was observed in the knowledge about some prevention measures with respect to 2016(AU)

Fenómeno ENOS y el dengue, Regiones Pacífico Central y Huetar Atlántico, Costa Rica, 1990 a 2011

n los últimos años, se ha evidenciado en Costa Rica un aumento importante en la cantidad de casos de dengue, por lo que se necesitan estudios donde se identifiquen las condiciones que promueven la propagación de la enfermedad, el ciclo de vida del vector, así como fenómenos atmosféricos entre los que sobresale el fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS).Objetivo: Analizar el efecto del Fenómeno ENOS en la propagación del virus del Dengue, en las Regiones Pacífico Central y Huetar Atlántico de Costa Rica en el periodo comprendido de 1990 a 2011.Métodos: se utilizó un estudio ecológico exploratorio, el cual tomó fuentes de información primaria, generadas por el Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), el Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) y el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC).Resultados: en los periodos durante los cuales se presentó en el país la fase cálida, las incidencias acumuladas promedio mensuales aumentaron en el Pacífico y disminuyeron en el Caribe, mientras que durante los periodos en que se mantuvo la fase fría, la incidencia acumulada promedio mensual aumentó en el Caribe y disminuyó en el Pacífico.Conclusiones: el fenómeno del ENOS afecta el aumento y disminución de los casos de dengue en los litorales de manera inversa.

ver the last years in Costa Rica, there has been a worrying increase in the number of people infected by Dengue. This situation reveals the necessity of searching for the causes that promote the mosquito's proliferation; especially concerning the relationship with environmental type that affects life cycle of the vector, such as atmospheric phenomena: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Objective: The investigation objective was to analyze the effect that ENOS has in the propagation of the Dengue virus in Pacífico Central and Huetar Atlántico in Costa Rica between 1990 and 2011.Methods: It was used an experimental, ecological study and different sources like Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) and the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) as primarily information bases.Results: The monthly impact accumulated of Dengue grew up during the Warm Phase at the Pacífico, and it decreased at The Caribe, while during the Cold Phase the monthly impact accumulated expanded at The Caribe and detracted at the Pacífico.Conclusions: Among the numerous findings, it turns out that the ENSO phenomenon alters the percentage of the people infected at the littorals in an inverse way.

Effects of climatic and social factors on dengue incidence in Mexican municipalities in the state of Veracruz / Efectos de factores climáticos y sociales en la incidencia de dengue en municipios mexicanos en el estado de Veracruz

Abstract: Objective: To assess links between the social variables and longer-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related weather conditions as they relate to the week-to-week changes in dengue incidence at a regional level. Materials and methods: We collected data from 10 municipalities of the Olmeca region in México, over a 10 year period (January 1995 to December 2005). Negative binomial models with distributed lags were adjusted to look for associations between changes in the weekly incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability. Results: Our results show that it takes approximately six weeks for sea surface temperatures (SST -34) to affect dengue incidence adjusted by weather and social variables. Conclusion: Such models could be used as early as two months in advance to provide information to decision makers about potential epidemics. Elucidating the effect of climatic variability and social variables, could assist in the development of accurate early warning systems for epidemics like dengue, Chikungunya and Zika.

Resumen: Objetivo: Evaluar los vínculos entre las variables sociales y las condiciones climáticas de largo plazo relacionadas con El Niño-oscilación del sur (ENOS) y con los cambios semanales en la incidencia del dengue a nivel regional. Material y métodos: Los datos fueron recolectados en diez municipios de la región Olmeca, México, durante un periodo de 10 años (enero de 1995 a diciembre de 2005). Se ajustaron modelos binomial negativo con rezagos distribuidos para evaluar las asociaciones entre los cambios en la tasa de incidencia semanal de dengue y la variabilidad climática. Resultados: Se requieren aproximadamente seis semanas para observar un efecto del incremento de la temperatura de la superficie marina (TSM -34) sobre la incidencia de dengue, ajustando por variables de tiempo y variables sociales. Conclusiones: Estos modelos se pueden usar con dos meses de antelación para proveer de información a tomadores de decisión sobre potenciales epidemias. Elucidar el efecto de la variabilidad climática en conjunto con las variables sociales puede favorecer el desarrollo de los sistemas de alerta temprana ante epidemias como dengue, Chikungunya y Zika.

Fenómeno el niño y desastres naturales: intervenciones en salud pública para la preparación y respuesta / El niño phenomenon and natural disasters: public health interventions for disaster preparedness and response

RESUMEN El presente artículo realiza una revisión de las intervenciones en salud pública para la preparación y respuesta ante desastres naturales en el contexto del fenómeno El Niño (FEN) a partir de revisiones sistemáticas y una revisión de revisiones con énfasis en las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, transmitidas por el agua, malnutrición, estrés térmico, sequías, enfermedades asociadas a inundaciones, problemas de salud mental, vulnerabilidad de la infraestructura física de los servicios de salud, así como de las políticas a largo plazo orientadas a proteger a la población en estos casos. Se identificaron intervenciones ambientales, como el control de vectores, quimioprofilaxis, vacunación y tratamiento intradomiciliario de agua. Si bien estos hallazgos se basan principalmente en revisiones sistemáticas, es necesario evaluar el beneficio de estas intervenciones en la población, de acuerdo con la realidad de cada región.

ABSTRACT This article reviews public health interventions for preparedness and response to natural disasters within the context of El Niño phenomenon using systematic reviews and a review of revisions with emphasis on vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, malnutrition, heat stress, drought, flood-associated diseases, mental health problems, vulnerability of the physical health-system infrastructure, as well as long-term policies aimed at protecting the populations of these cases. Environmental interventions were identified, including vector control, chemoprophylaxis, immunization, and intradomiciliary water treatment. While these finds are based primarily on systematic reviews, it is necessary to evaluate the benefit of these interventions within the population, according to the context of each region.

Influencia del evento climático El Niño sobre la dinámica de transmisión de dengue en Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia / Influence of the El Niño climatic event on dengue transmission dynamics in Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia

Introducción: diferentes factores afectan la transmisión del dengue. En particular, juegan un papel importante las condiciones socioculturales y económicas. Además, se ha evidenciado que la variabilidad climática influye en la incidencia de la enfermedad al afectar la dinámica de población de los vectores y el período de incubación extrínseca del virus. Objetivo: estudiar el papel de los indicadores oceánicos del evento El Niño en la dinámica de transmisión del dengue en la ciudad. Materiales y métodos: para el análisis de la información se emplearon las escalas temporales de mes, semana y período epidemiológico. Resultados: se observó que en los años posteriores a la ocurrencia del evento El Niño aumenta la incidencia de la enfermedad en la ciudad. Mediante un análisis de correlación cruzada se halló que dicha incidencia se asocia significativamente con la temperatura superficial del mar de la región El Niño 3,4, con un rezago de 3 a 6 meses. Conclusiones: la información obtenida con el presente estudio es una herramienta epidemiológica importante que puede emplearse en los programas de control y para ayudar a mitigar el impacto de futuras epidemias de la enfermedad en Medellín.

Introduction: Dengue transmission is affected by different factors. Particularly, the socio-cultural and economic conditions play an important role in it. Additionally, it has been demonstrated that climatic variability influences the incidence of the disease by affecting the vector population dynamics and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. Objective: To study the role of the oceanic indicators of El Niño event in dengue transmission dynamics in the city. Materials and methods: Three temporal scales were used for analysis of the information, namely: month, week and epidemiological period. Results: An increase in dengue incidence was observed in the city in the years following the occurrence of the El Niño event. By means of a cross correlation analysis it was found that such incidence is significantly associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the El Niño 3.4 region, with a lag of 3 to 6 months. Conclusions: The data obtained in this study become an important epidemiological tool, which may be used in dengue control programs and to help mitigate the impact of future disease epidemics in Medellin.

Climate indices, rainfall onset and retreat, and malaria in Nigeria.

Background & objectives: Rainfall in western sub-Saharan Africa is related to seasonal shifts of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, which moves northward early in the year, retreating in the second half of the year. The objective of the present study was to determine significant relationships between onset and retreat timing and climate indices. The relationship between timing and malaria case reporting was then evaluated. Methods: Relationships between published rainfall onset and retreat dates for Nigeria from 1971– 2000 were evaluated in relation to pairs of climate indices using response surface analysis. Graphical representation of the response surface in relation to the underlying data was used to identify instances of overfitting. Association of onset and retreat timing with published case reporting records was evaluated using graphical and correlation analysis. Results: Onset timing and rate of advance were related to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), in combination with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), while retreat timing was related to NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), in combination with the East Pacific (EP) or West Pacific (WP) index, depending on location. Later onset was associated with faster northward progression of onset. Retreat date at Kano, the most northerly of the study locations, increased over the period 1990–2000, with higher case reporting for Nigeria as a whole being associated with the last three years of that period. Interpretation & conclusion: Rainfall retreat occurs much faster than onset, with onset and retreat timing and rate of onset advance being related to combinations of climate indices rather than to a single index. Threshold for determining a “rainy” day would influence results. The increase in national case reporting with delayed retreat at Kano may be related to the extension of the short transmission period in the north.

The fish species composition and variation of catch from the small-scale gillnet fishery before, during and after the 1997-1998 ENSO event, central Mexican Pacific

In the tropical and subtropical coastal zone, were highly diverse fish communities occur, it is important to study the small scale fisheries exploiting these communities. For this study, 219 fishing days were carried out in Bahia de Navidad, Jalisco, Mexico. Four gillnets with different mesh sizes (76.2, 88.9, 101.6 and 114.3 mm) were used for the fishing operations, from April 1994 to March 1995 and from January 1998 to December 2000. A total of 26126 organisms weighting 11680 kg were caught. One hundred and eighty three species belonging to 57 families and 19 orders were identified. Ten species accumulated more than 60% of the total abundance and biomass, the remaining species (173) individually contributed with less than 2% of the total abundance and biomass. The most important species in the catch were Microlepidotus brevipinnis, Caranx caballus, Haemulon flaviguttatum, Scomberomorus sierra, C. caninus, C. sexfjasciatus, Lutjanus guttatus and L. argentiventris. The catch per unit of effort showed a large variation during the study, both in number and biomass. On average, 110 fishes and 48.5 kg fishing day(-1) were caught. The maximum values were recorded during January and October 1998 (250 fishes and 100 kg fishing day(-1)), and the minimum values were recorded during September and November 1994 (25 org. and 10 kg fishing day(-1)). The total abundance and biomass was lower during the 1994-95 period (F=6.16, 8.32, P<0.05). There were statistically significant differences among the annual catch from each gillnet. All the environmental changes caused by the ENSO event had ecological and economic effects that can be rated from moderate to severe.

Se llevaron a cabo 219 días de pesca experimental en la Bahía de Navidad, Jalisco, México. Se utilizaron cuatro redes de enmalle de diferente luz de malla (76.2, 88.9, 101.6 and 114.3 mm de luz de malla), de abril de 1994 a marzo de 1995 y de enero de 1998 a diciembre de 2000. En total se capturaron 26126 organismos que pesaron 11680 kg. Fueron identificadas 183 especies pertenecientes a 57 familias y 19 órdenes. Diez especies acumularon más del 60% de la abundancia y biomasa total, el resto de las especies (173) individualmente aportaron menos del 2% de la abundancia y biomasa total. Las especies más importantes en la captura fueron Microlepidotus brevipinnis, Caranx caballus, Haemulon flaviguttatum, Scomberomorus sierra, C. caninus, C. sexfasciatus, Lutjanus guttatus y L. argentiventris. La captura por unidad de esfuerzo mostró una gran variación durante todo el periodo de estudio, tanto en número de organismos como en biomasa. En promedio se capturaron 110 organismos/día de pesca (48.5 kg/día de pesca). Los valores máximos se registraron durante enero y octubre de 1998 (250 peces y 100 kg por día de pesca), y el mínimo se registró durante septiembre y noviembre de 1994 (25 organismos y 10 kg por día de pesca). La abundancia y biomasa total fue menor durante el periodo 1994-1995 (F=6.16, 8.32, P<0.05). Se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre la captura anual de las diferentes redes. Los cambios ambientales provocados por el evento ENOS tuvo efectos que pudieran considerarse de moderados a severos, tanto ecológicos como económicos.