ABSTRACT
La COVID-19 ha provocado una emergencia sanitaria mundial sin precedentes, afectando también negativamente a la prestación de atención a la tuberculosis (TB) en casi todos los países. Por tanto, esta investigación analiza el impacto de la COVID-19 en el control de la TB en Paraguay. Estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo, con enfoque mixto y de corte transversal. Resultados: siete de los 10 indicadores priorizados de la Estrategia "Fin de la TB" registraron resultados por debajo a lo notificado en los últimos tres años, siendo el 2020 el más afectado. Existe una brecha de 1.037 personas que no han sido diagnosticadas y tratadas por TB en Paraguay, de acuerdo a lo estimado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) en 2020. Se analizaron 2.598 casos de TB en 2020, frente a 3.083 en el 2019, lo que representa una disminución del 15,7% en la notificación de casos; las notificaciones disminuyeron en un 24% en mujeres, 40,5% en niños y en un 19,6% de éxito de tratamiento. Se presentó una tasa de letalidad de 12%, la mayor en los últimos cuatro años. Las expertas encuestadas, opinan que la situación de la TB empeoró tras la llegada de la COVID-19 en el país, principalmente en la notificación de casos e investigación de contactos. La COVID-19 ha impactado negativamente en el control de la TB en Paraguay, esto representa un riesgo significativo en el control de la enfermedad y el avance a lo largo de los años se ve seriamente comprometido y amenaza con revertir los logros alcanzados.
COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented global health emergency, also negatively affecting the delivery of tuberculosis (TB) care in almost all countries. This research therefore analyses the impact of COVID-19 on TB control in Paraguay. Descriptive, retrospective, mixed-approach, cross-sectional study. Results: seven of the 10 prioritized indicators of the "End TB Strategy" registered results below what was reported in the last three years, with 2020 being the most affected. There is a gap of 1,037 people who have not been diagnosed and treated for TB in Paraguay, as estimated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2020. There were 2,598 TB cases analysed in 2020, compared to 3,083 in 2019, representing a 15.7% decrease in case notification; notifications decreased by 24% in women, 40.5% in children and 19.6% treatment success. There was a case fatality rate of 12%, the highest in the last four years. The experts surveyed were of the opinion that the TB situation worsened after the advent of COVID-19 in the country, mainly in case notification and contact investigation. COVID-19 has had a negative impact on TB control in Paraguay, which represents a significant risk for the control of the disease, and progress over the years is seriously compromised and threatens to reverse the achievements made.
ABSTRACT
Background & objectives: To support recent political commitments to end tuberculosis (TB) in the World Health Organization South-East Asian Region (SEAR), there is a need to understand by what measures, and with what investment, these goals could be reached. These questions were addressed by using mathematical models of TB transmission by doing the analysis on a country-by-country basis in SEAR. Methods: A dynamical model of TB transmission was developed, in consultation with each of the 11 countries in the SEAR. Three intervention scenarios were examined: (i) strengthening basic TB services (including private sector engagement), (ii) accelerating TB case-finding and notification, and (iii) deployment of a prognostic biomarker test by 2025, to guide mass preventive therapy of latent TB infection. Each scenario was built on the preceding ones, in successive combination. Results: Comprehensive improvements in basic TB services by 2020, in combination with accelerated case-finding to increase TB detection by at least two-fold by 2020, could lead to a reduction in TB incidence rates in SEAR by 67.3 per cent [95% credible intervals (CrI) 65.3-69.8] and TB deaths by 80.9 per cent (95% CrI 77.9-84.7) in 2035, relative to 2015. These interventions alone would require an additional investment of at least US$ 25 billion. However, their combined effect is insufficient to reach the end TB targets of 80 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2035. Model projections show how additionally, deployment of a biomarker test by 2025 could end TB in the region by 2035. Targeting specific risk groups, such as slum dwellers, could mitigate the coverage needed in the general population, to end TB in the Region. Interpretation & conclusions: While the scale-up of currently available strategies may play an important role in averting TB cases and deaths in the Region, there will ultimately be a need for novel, mass preventive measures, to meet the end TB goals. Achieving these impacts will require a substantial escalation in funding for TB control in the Region.