ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the predictive value of albumin-bilirubin score combined with Glasgow-Blatchfordscale(GBS) in the short-term prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.Methods:Eighty-one patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage who were treated in JingzhouHospital Affiliated to Yangtze University from May 2020 to May 2022 were selected as the research subjects, according to the prognosis of patients within 30 d, they were divided into poor prognosis group (35 cases) and fair prognosis group (46 cases). Clinical data were collected and the levels of albumin (ALB), creatinine (Cr), hemoglobin (Hb), total bilirubin (TBIL), urea nitrogen (BUN) and the scores of ALBI, GBS were compared between the two groups. The independent risk factors of short-term prognosis in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage were analyzed by Logistic multivariate regression analysis. The predictive value of ALBI score and GBS score for short-term prognosis of acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage was evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were drawn, and the area under the curve was calculated and compared.Results:There were no significant differences in baseline data such as gender, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, smoking history, drinking history, drug use, syncope, mental changesand comorbidities between the two groups ( P>0.05). The age in the poor prognosis group was higher than that in the fair prognosis group: (65.60 ± 7.90) years vs. (62.60 ± 7.50) years, there was statistical difference ( P<0.05). The levels of BUN, TBIL and GBS scores in the poor prognosis group were higher than those in the fair prognosis group: (9.86 ± 2.94) mmol/L vs.(8.56 ± 2.66) mmol/L, (20.70 ± 12.31) μmol/L vs. (11.71 ± 8.11) μmol/L, (10.77 ± 1.59) scores vs. (7.91 ± 1.91) scores; the levels of Hb, Cr, ALB and ALBI scores were lower than those in the fair prognosis group: (74.97 ± 16.47) g/L vs.(84.01 ± 19.44) g/L, (65.72 ± 12.08) μmol/L vs. (70.37 ± 11.52) μmol/L, (25.67 ± 4.30) g/L vs. (32.62 ± 5.07) g/L, (0.75 ± 0.47) scores vs. (1.37 ± 0.43) scores, there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that ALB, TBIL and ALBI, GSB scores were independent risk factors for death within 30 din patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage ( P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of ALBI score and GBS score were 0.922 and 0.875, while the area under the curve of combined was 0.958, the sensitivity was 94.29%, and the specificity was 84.78%, which were significantly higher than predicted alone ( Z = 1.87, 2.44; P<0.05). Conclusions:ALBI score combined with GBS has good predictive value for short-term prognosis in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.
ABSTRACT
Resumen Introducción: Con la escala de Glasgow-Blatchford (EG-B) se califica mediante datos clínicos, el riesgo de resangrado después de hemorragia del tubo digestivo alto (HTDA); y con las escalas de Forrest y Dagradi, mediante endoscopia. Objetivo: Evaluar la capacidad de la EG-B para identificar riesgo de resangrado a 30 días después de una HTDA; el estándar de oro de comparación fue la endoscopia. Método: Se analizaron 129 expedientes de pacientes con HTDA y endoscopia. Se cuantificaron las escalas de Glasgow-Blatchford, Forrest y Dagradi; se calculó sensibilidad, especificidad y área bajo la curva ROC (ABC-ROC) del riesgo de resangrado reportado por EG-B. Resultados: La EG-B identificó a 53 pacientes con riesgo bajo de resangrado (41.09 %) y 76 con riesgo alto (58.91 %). Con la endoscopia se identificó a 107 pacientes con hemorragia no variceal (82.94 %), 98 con riesgo bajo (89.9 %) y 11 con riesgo alto (10.09 %); además, 22 pacientes con hemorragia variceal (17.05 %), 12 con riesgo bajo (54.54 %) y 10 con riesgo alto (45.45 %). La EG-B mostró sensibilidad de 0.857, especificidad de 0.462 y ABC-ROC de 0.660. Conclusiones: La EG-B es sencilla, objetiva y útil para identificar riesgo de resangrado después de HTDA; se sugiere como herramienta de triaje en urgencias.
Abstract Introduction: The Glasgow-Blatchford scale (GBS) classifies the risk of re-bleeding after upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) using clinical data, whereas the Forrest and Dagradi scales do it by endoscopy. Objective: To assess GBSs ability to identify re-bleeding risk within 30 days of an UGIB, using endoscopy as the gold standard for comparison. Method: 129 medical records of patients with UGIB and endoscopy were analyzed. The Glasgow-Blatchford, Forrest and Dagradi scales were quantified; sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) of GBS-reported re-bleeding risk were calculated. Results: GBS identified 53 patients with low re-bleeding risk (41.09 %) and 76 with high risk (58.91 %). Endoscopy identified 107 patients with non-variceal bleeding (82.94 %): 98 with low risk (89.9 %) and 11 with high risk (10.09 %); in addition, it identified 22 patients with variceal hemorrhage (17.05 %): 12 with low risk (54.54 %) and 10 with high risk (45.45 %). GBS showed a sensitivity of 0.857, specificity of 0.462 and an AUC-ROC of 0.660. Conclusions: GBS is simple, objective and useful to identify the risk of re-bleeding after UGIB; it is suggested as a triage tool in the emergency department.