Longitudinal study on the track of postoperative supportive care needs and influencing factors in patients with non-small cell lung cancer / 中国实用护理杂志

Objective:To explore the potential categories of post-operative supportive care demand trajectory for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), analyze the influencing factors, and propose targeted interventions.Methods:This was a prospective observational study. A convenient sampling method was used to select 177 NSCLC patients who received surgical treatment in Shanghai Lung Hospital Affiliated to Tongji University from January 2021 to February 2022. The Supportive Care Demand Scale for cancer patients was used to investigate the level of patients′supportive care demand 1 day before operation, 3 days after operation, 1 day before discharge, 1 week after discharge, 1 month after discharge, and 3 months after discharge, and the potential growth model was used to identify the trajectory category and multi category Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors.Results:Three supportive care demand trajectories were fitted out in this study, which were the continuous high demand group (46.33%), the slowly decreasing demand group (30.51%), and the low decreasing demand group (23.16%). With the potential category group 3, low demand reduction group as the reference category, Logistic regression analysis showed that high psychological distress, low social support, high disease stage, high comorbidities were more likely to enter the continuous high demand group ( OR = 0.826 to 18.526, all P<0.05), and high education level (college education and above and high school) were more likely to enter the slowly decreasing demand group ( OR = 6.076, 4.199, both P<0.05). Conclusions:The demand track of NSCLC patients for supportive care after surgery has population heterogeneity. Clinical medical staff should provide personalized social support and emotional support for patients with high disease stage, more complications and low education level in the early postoperative period.

Trajectory of the development of caries in the permanent dentition of 12- to 16-year-old students based on a latent class growth model analysis in Liuyang / 口腔疾病防治

Objective@# To explore the trajectory of the development of permanent caries in 12- to 16-year-old students in Liuyang and to provide a reference for the prevention and management of caries.@*Methods@#Primary and secondary school students who were registered within the Liuyang jurisdiction were screened for caries from September to November by the Liuyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A total of 7 297 students between the ages of 12 and 16 years with complete permanent dentition caries monitoring records and traceable deciduous dentition caries monitoring records were selected from 2013 to 2019, and a zero-inflated negative binomial-latent class growth model (ZINB-LCGM) was established to describe the trajectory of the development of individual caries using the decayed missing filled teeth (DMFT) indicators. @*Results@# DMFT of 12- to 16-year-old students in Liuyang were mainly decayed teeth (DT), with the majority occurring in the first permanent molar. According to the ZINB-LCGM model, the students were classified into three latent categories, "slow growth pattern" (28.55%), "rapid growth pattern" (6.59%), and "stable pattern" (64.86%), which followed different nonlinear caries growth trajectories. Females with deciduous teeth caries were more likely to have trajectories showing a “rapid growth pattern” and a “slow growth pattern”. There were significant differences in the trajectories between men and women, as well as between those with and without primary dentition caries. @*Conclusion @# The trajectory of the development of caries in 12-16-year-old students shows heterogeneity in terms of different developmental patterns of latent categories, suggesting that females with deciduous dental caries should receive more attention.

VALUE ADDED TAX AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA (A CRITICAL APPRAISAL)

This research is focused on the impact of Value Added Tax on Economic Growth in Nigeria. It covers the period between 1999 and 2019. Secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin as well as Nigeria Bureau of Statistics were utilized. The ordinary least square estimating technique was adopted. The result revealed that Government expenditure, Investment and Value Added Tax were statistically significant to changes in Economic Growth in Nigeria. However, human capital development was not statistically significant to changes in Economic growth with in the period covered by the study. It was therefore recommended that even though Value Added Tax is marginally significant to changes in economic growth, government should not increase it to fund annual budget. Government is also advised to increase acquisition of skills of its labour force to boost human capital segment. Also government should increase capital expenditure which is the productive aspect of her annual expenditure instead of the usual lion share given to recurrent expenditure in annual budget. This is the only way economic growth can be sustainable in Nigeria

Longitudinal study on the trajectory and influencing factors of cancer-related fatigue in patients with lung cancer during perioperative period / 中国实用护理杂志

Objective:To explore the changing track of cancer-related fatigue in patients with lung cancer during perioperative period and analyze its influencing factors.Methods:From December 2020 to May 2021, 162 eligible patients with lung cancer were selected in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital by convenient sampling method. Mental resilience and social support were investigated before operation (T0);and cancer-related fatigue was investigated before operation (T0),3 days after operation (T1), 1 week after operation (T2), 2 weeks after operation (T3) and 1 month after operation (T4), and Latent Class Growth Model was used to identify the track categories. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors.Results:Three cancer-related fatigue tracks were fitted in this study, which were no fatigue group (31.7%), increased fatigue group (36.0%) and sustained fatigue group (32.3%). Univariate analysis showed that smoking history ( χ2=14.83, P<0.05), BMI ( χ2=29.67, P<0.05), hemoglobin count ( F=4.57, P<0.05), mental resilience ( F=35.53, P<0.05), social support ( F=47.53, P<0.05) were related to the track category of cancer-related fatigue. Logistic regression analysis showed that smoking history, over weight/obesity, resilience and social support were the predictors of cancer-related fatigue locus ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Perioperative cancer-related fatigue of patients with lung cancer has different change trajectories, patients with higher BMI and lower resilience are more likely to have a tendency of persistent fatigue. Patients with smoking history and lower social support are more likely to have an upward trend of fatigue. For this kind of lung cancer patients, medical staff should take timely and effective intervention measures to improve their cancer-related fatigue.

A Comparative Study of PBPK Model and Allometric Growth Model of Azithromycin in Extrapolation of Adult Pharmacokinetic Data to Pediatric Population / 中国药学杂志

OBJECTIVE: To establish an adult-pediatric transformation model of azithromycin to provide guiding recommendations for clinical using of pediatrics, reduce the risk of medicationfor children, and achieve clinical personalized medication for children. METHODS: The relevant literature was reviewed. The physiological parameters of the azithromycin oral administration test in adults combined with the drug-specific parameters of azithromycin were used to establish an allometric growth model, PBPK model. According to the clinical data of oral azithromycin extracted from individual children, the correctness of the parameter scaling formulas of these two models was verified. These two models were further used to simulate the pharmacokinetic parameters of children and calculate the relative deviation and relative standard error of these parameters. RESULTS: Through simulation, it is found that the pharmacokinetic parameters cmax, tmax, AUC0-∞ obtained by the two models are close to the measured values, which are all within the scope of the literature. It can be considered that the parameter conversion formulas of the two models are correct. Further, the relative deviation and relative standard error of the parameters are calculated, and the relative deviation and relative standard error of the adult-pediatric PBPK prediction model are smaller than those of the allometric growth model. CONCLUSION: The azithromycin PBPK model predicts that children's pharmacokinetic parameters are better than the allometric growth model. The scaling formula for the specific parameters of the oral-dose adult-child model used in this article, which was successfully verified by azithromycin, can be extrapolated to other drugs to facilitate the conversion of other oral-adulterated adult-pediatric models.

Medicinal and Aromatic Plants’ Productivity and Sustainability Monitoring Framework

Aims: To establish a programmatic framework facilitating all stakeholders harmonize their approaches and methodologies in ensuring sustainable management of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants. Study Design: Combination of semi-structured interviews, questionnaire, and direct observation research methods. Place and Duration of Study: Selected towns and villages in South Western States of Nigeria between January 2010 and June 2012. Methodology: ‘Participatory approach’ adopted to explore individual perceptions, values and attitudes through in-depth interviewing and administration of semi-structured questionnaires with open-ended pertinent questions for all stakeholders’ joint inputs. 413 stakeholders (General Practitioners with Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) knowledge, CAM practitioners with biomedicine knowledge, pharmacists, MAPs consumers, and community members), 127 Parks and Gardens government officials, 58 conservation scholars/researchers, and 14 legal practitioners on MAPs conservation were interviewed to perform stakeholder analysis. Model-driven engineering tools were used to create the static behaviour aspects of MAPs management. A logistic productivity and sustainability potential of a village medicinal plants harvesting was simulated with a written software. Results: CAM practitioners demanded appropriate information on the sustainable use of MAPs. Regulatory/government body ensured stakeholders’ compliance with the laws governing harvesting of MAPs, while reducing or avoiding policies/political changes that could result in MAPs’ loss. Doctors/nurses showed interest seeking integration of conventional medical practice with MAPs-based therapies. Pharmacists expressed interest exploring MAPs for new therapeutics. Scholars/researchers demanded research grants/funding from governments and their research findings’ implementation. Conclusion: Coordination among different stakeholders, significant involvement of the parks management, improvement in national education standards, and a legal framework that provides a basis for co-management agreements that constitute critical success factors needed to implement viable and sustainable conservation agreements within the program. MAPs’ productivity and sustainability demand individual and collective responsibilities from all stakeholders for better management of ecosystem and public health in a viable option using a ‘participation model’.

Estimation of tumour volume at therapy initiation by back-extrapolating the post-therapy regression curve of tumour volume

Background: Tumour volume at therapy initiation, Vi, is rarely available in cancer patients, and the last pre-treatment tumour volume available is from previous diagnostic imaging (Vd). Therapeutic efficacy is thus evaluated by comparing tumour volume after treatment with Vd, instead of Vi, which results in underestimation of treatment efficacy. Vi, together with Vd, can also be used for estimation of the natural growth rate of tumour valuable for, e.g., screening programs, prognostication and individualised treatment planning such as chemotherapy scheduling. The aim of this work was to study the feasibility of estimating Vi by back-extrapolating the post-therapy regression of tumour volume, based on data from animal model. Methods: Nude mice bearing human neuroendocrine GOT1 tumour cell line were treated with 177Lu-DOTA-TATE. Tumour volumes were measured regularly after therapy and Vi was estimated by back-extrapolation of (a) linear and (b) exponential regression lines of the two earliest post-therapy tumour volumes and (c) the long-term exponential regression of tumour volume. The estimated Vi values (Vest) were compared with the measured volume of tumour at therapy initiation. Results: The linear regression of the two earliest post-therapy tumour volumes gave the best estimate for Vi (Vest = 0.91 Vi, p < 0.00001), compared with the exponential regression models either on short-term (Vest = 2.30 Vi, p < 0.01), or long-term (Vest = 0.93 Vi, non-significant) follow up of tumour volume after therapy. Conclusion: Back-extrapolation of the early linear regression of tumour volume after therapy gave the best estimate for tumour volume at time of therapy initiation. This estimate can be used as baseline for treatment efficacy evaluation or for estimation of the natural growth rate of tumour (together with the measured tumour volume at pre-treatment diagnostic imaging)

Research for dynamic changes of growth and alkaloids of Coptis chinensis / 中国中药杂志

With Coptis chinensis in high-yielding soil as the object,the growth regularity of plant and dynamic change of alkaloid content was studied. The plant growth model of C. chinensis was constructed. The plant height equation was =3.030 9+0.732 6-0.009 6²,the number of leaves equation was =111.882 6-2 234.881 7/+15 218.960 8/²-31 740.960 8/³,the leaf area equation was =-217.136 1+30.552 2-0.359 0²,the roots talk biomass equation was =-2.748 8+0.210 3+0.006 4²,the number of rootstalk equation was =-1.246 0+0.192 6+0.000 8²,the fibrous root biomass equation was =-4.973 5+0.589 4 -0.002 6². The results indicated that the number of leaves and leaf area were increasing continuously after seedling transplanting,the leaf area of 3-year-old C. chinensis reached a maximum value of 425.83 cm²/plant,after declining.The number of leave of 5-year-old C. chinensis reached a maximum value of 70.91. With the increasing of years of growth, the number of rootstalk and rootstalk biomass of C. chinensis was increasing continuously. The biomass growth of 3-year-old and 4-year-old rootstalk was the fastest in the whole development stage of C. chinensis,the annual increase of more than 300%. The change curve of rootstalk number, rootstalk biomass and fibrous root biomass in the whole growth stage was a s-type.The dry matter partition of leafwas the highest in 1-year-old C. chinensis, and then gradually decreased,the change trend of dry matter partition of rootstalk was just the opposite, the dry matter partition of fibrous root increases with the increase of the growing year, reaching the maximum value in 3-year-old, then gradually lower trend. The root-shootratio of 1-year-old C. chinensis was the smallest, then gradually increases, the growth center gradually shifted to the roots from stems and leaves, The weight of underground part of 3-year-old C. chinensis exceeded the aboveground part, the 5-year-old C. chinensis root-shoot ratio reached the maximum value of 1.91:1.With the increasing of years of growth, the contents of coptisine, berberine, epiberberine and palmatine in rootstalk was increasing continuously. The jatrorrhizine content in 2-year-old C. chinensis was significantly lower than that in other years, the content was no significant change after that. The columbamine content reached a maximum value in 3-year-old C. chinensis,then the decreased gradually. The content of magnoflorine gradually increased and reached maximum value in 5-year-old C. chinensis.

Bacillus cereus growth model established in cooked rice / 上海预防医学

Objective Establishment of growth model of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice.Methods To study the effects of temperature (10,15,20,25,30,34,37 and 43℃) on the growth of Bacillus cereus in rice.And then the SGompertz and SLogistic models were selected as the primary growth models to fit the growth curve of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice at variable storage temperatures.Using the fitness (R2),accuracy factor (Af) and deviation factor (Bf) as evaluation index,quadratic polynomial model and square root model were selected further to fit and to establish the secondary growth models of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice.Results The SGompertz model could be better fitting the growth of Bacillus cereus at different temperatures,and therefore was chosen as the primary growth model of Bacillus cereus in rice.For the developed square root model,Af was 1.12 and 1.24,Bf was 0.99 and 1.03,R2 values were 0.9537 and 0.8503;respectively.For the developed quadratic polynomial model,Af was 1.24 and 1.11,Bf was 0.92 and 0.92,R2 values were 0.9550 and 0.9462;respectively.Conclusion The quadratic polynomial model can well predict the growth of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice,which proves to be reliable.

Logistic growth models of China pinks, cultivated on seven substrates, as a function of degree days / Modelo logístico de crescimento de cravina de jardim cultivada em sete substratos em função da soma térmica

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to characterize the height (H) and leaf number (LN) of China pinks, grown in seven substrates, as a function of degree days, using the logistic growth model. H and LN were measured from 56 plants per substrate, for 392 plants in total. Plants that were grown on substrates formed of 50% soil with 50% rice husk ash (50% S + 50% RH) and 80% rice husk ash with 20% worm castings (80% RH + 20% W) had the longest vegetative growth period (74d), corresponding to 1317.9ºCd. The logistic growth model, adjusted for H, showed differences in the estimation of maximum expected height (α) between the substrates, with values between 10.47cm for 50% S + 50% RH and 35.75cm for Mecplant(r). When α was estimated as LN, variation was also observed between the different substrates, from approximately 30 leaves on plants growing on 50% S + 50% RH to 34 leaves on the plants growing on the substrate formed of 80% RH + 20% W. Growth of China pinks can be characterized using H or LN in the logistic growth model as a function of degree days, being the provided plants adequately fertilized. The best substrates in terms of maximum height and leaf number were 80% soil + 20% worm castings and Mecplant(r). However, users must recalibrate the model with the estimated parameters before applying it to different growing conditions.

RESUMO: O objetivo do estudo foi caracterizar a altura (H) e o número de folhas (NF), pelo modelo logístico, de cravina de jardim cultivada em sete substratos em função da soma térmica. Foram avaliadas a H e o NF de 56 plantas por substrato, totalizando 392 plantas ajustadas. As plantas dos substratos compostos de: 50% de solo e 50% de cinzas de casca de arroz (50% S + 50% CA); e 80% cinzas de casca de arroz e 20% húmus de minhoca (80% CA + 20% H) tiveram o maior ciclo, de 74 dias, e o completaram com soma térmica de 1317,9ºC dia. O modelo logístico ajustado para H apresentou diferenças para a estimativa da altura máxima esperada (α) entre os substratos, com valores de 10,47cm para 50% S + 50% CA e, 35,75cm, para o substrato Mecplant(r). Para o NF, observou-se que α teve menor variação entre os substratos, desde aproximadamente 30 folhas, nas plantas do substrato 50% S + 50% CA até 34 folhas, nas plantas do substrato 80% CA + 20% H. O crescimento de cravina de jardim, a partir das variáveis estudadas, pode ser caracterizado pelo modelo logístico, em função da soma térmica acumulada, quando as plantas estão sem restrições nutricionais. Considerando a altura máxima e o número máximo de folhas, os melhores substratos foram o composto de 80% de solo + 20% húmus de minhoca e o Mecplant(r). Entretanto, os usuários devem testar as calibrações do modelo, com os parâmetros sugeridos, antes de aplicar o modelo para outras condições climáticas.

Application of the logistic model to describe the growth curve in dogs of different breeds / Aplicación del modelo logístico para describir la curva de crecimiento en perros de diferentes razas

Objective. To model the growth in dogs of different size and breeds that during their development showed a relative body weight according to the standards of their racial group. Materials and methods. The data used were obtained from the Canine Research Center (CIC), property of Empresa Solla S.A., located in the municipality of Rionegro (Antioquia, Colombia). The parameters of the growth curve were defined based on the logistic model using the procedure PROC NLIN of the SAS. Results. The adult weight (a) ranged from 2.12 Kg (York Shire Terrier) to 32.88 Kg (Weimaraner). For small, medium and large breeds, growth rates (1/b) during the exponential phase ranged between 9.91-18.91%, 9.12-13.83% and, 8.17-14.38%, respectively, and the average age at which 50% of the adult weight was reached (x0) was 3.49±0.03, 4.21±0.42 y 5.27±0.86 months, correspondingly. Large dog breeds reached maturity (T99) later than smaller breeds, 14.37±1.79 vs. 9.46±1.63 mo. Conclusions. The logistic model was able to describe the growth in dogs of different size, however, a larger sample size will improve its predictive ability, given the individual variability that characterizes growth.

Objetivo. Modelar el crecimiento en perros de diferentes tamaños y razas, que durante su desarrollo exhibieron un peso corporal relativo acorde con los estándares de su grupo racial. Materiales y métodos. Los datos utilizados fueron obtenidos del Centro de Investigaciones Caninas (CIC) de la Empresa Solla S.A., ubicada en el municipio de Rionegro (Antioquia, Colombia). Los parámetros de la curva de crecimiento fueron definidos desde el modelo logístico utilizando el procedimiento PROC NLIN del programa estadístico SAS. Resultados. El peso de los adultos (a) fluctuó entre 2.12 Kg (York Shire Terrier) hasta 32.88 Kg (Weimaraner). Para las razas pequeñas, medianas y grandes, las tasas de crecimiento (1/b) durante la fase exponencial fluctuaron entre 9.91-18.91%, 9.12-13.83% y, 8.17-14.38%, respectivamente, y la edad media a la cual se alcanzó el 50% del peso adulto (xo) fue 3.49±0.03, 4.21±0.42 y 5.27±0.86 meses, correspondientemente. Las razas de perros grandes alcanzaron la madurez (T99) mucho más tarde que las razas de perros pequeños, 14.37±1.79 vs. 9.46±1.63 meses. Conclusiones. El modelo logístico fue adecuado para describir el crecimiento en perros de diferente tamaño, no obstante, un tamaño de muestra mayor mejoraría la capacidad predictiva del mismo, dada la variabilidad individual que caracteriza el crecimiento.

The application of trajectory model in epidemiological research / 中华流行病学杂志

This article introduced the application of trajectory model in epidemiological study on fat development in sixty teenagers.Results showed that fat developing trend on three trajectories-normal fat group,high fat group and very high fat group,with independently different developing trend.Trajectory model seemed a suitable model for fitting the longitudinal data with heterogeneity.

Germination and allometry of the native palm tree Euterpe edulis compared to the introduced E. oleracea and their hybrids in Atlantic rainforest / Germinação e alometria de Euterpe edulis comparadas à palmeira introduzida Euterpe oleracea e seus híbridos na floresta Atlântica

Palms are distinctive plants of tropics and have peculiar allometric relations. Understanding such relations is useful in the case of introduced species because their ability to establish and invade must be clarified in terms of their responses in the new site. Our purpose was to assess the survival and invasive capacity of an introduced palm species in the Atlantic rainforest, Euterpe oleracea Mart., compared to the native Euterpe edulis Mart. and to the hybrids produced between the two species. Considering this, we compared the allometry in different ontogenetic stages, the germination rates, and aspects of the initial development. The ontogenetic stages proposed for both Euterpe illustrated the growth patterns described for palm trees. E. oleracea and hybrids adjusted to the geometric similarity allometric model, while E. edulis presented a slope greater than would be expected considering this model, indicating a greater height for a given diameter. E. oleracea showed the same amount of pulp per fruit as E. edulis and a similar initial development of seedlings. The main differences observed were a lower germination rate and a faster height gain of E. oleracea seedlings. We conclude that E. oleracea, which is similar to E. edulis in aspects of allometry, development, seed and seedling morphology, may be an important competitor of this native palm tree in the Atlantic Forest.

Palmeiras são plantas características dos trópicos que apresentam relações alométricas peculiares. Compreender tais padrões pode ser útil no caso de espécies introduzidas, uma vez que sua habilidade de estabelecimento e invasão deve ser esclarecida em relação as suas respostas à nova localidade. Nosso propósito foi compreender a sobrevivência e a capacidade de invasão de uma palmeira introduzida na floresta Atlântica, Euterpe oleracea Mart. (açaizeiro) comparada à palmeira nativa Euterpe edulis Mart. (juçara), também considerando seus híbridos. Para isso comparamos suas relações alométricas em estádios ontogenéticos, sua germinação e seu desenvolvimento inicial. Os estádios ontogenéticos propostos para ambas as Euterpe ilustraram os padrões de crescimento esperados para palmeiras. E. oleracea e híbridos apresentaram-se sob o modelo alométrico de similaridade geométrica e E. edulis apresentou inclinação maior do que este modelo. E. oleracea produziu a mesma quantidade de polpa por fruto que E. edulis. As principais diferenças observadas foram menor taxa de germinação e maior velocidade de crescimento em altura para as plântulas de E. oleracea. Em conclusão, nossos resultados indicam que E. oleracea, sendo similar a E. edulis em termos de alometria, desenvolvimento e morfologia de sementes e plântulas, pode ser um importante competidor para a espécies nativa na Floresta Atlântica.

Evaluation of "Pampa-Corte" simulation model in different beef cattle fattening systems in Spain / Desempenho do modelo "Pampa-Corte" em diferentes sistemas de terminação de bovinos na Espanha

The Pampa-Corte model was developed to simulate the growth of beef cattle in grazing systems in a dynamic and mechanistic way. It was validated under Brazilian conditions. This paper aims to verify the performance of the model in conventional and alternative beef cattle finishing systems in Spain. An experimental dataset of 21 Parda de Montaña calves of similar age and weight at weaning was used to evaluate the model. They were slaughtered individually on reaching 450kg liveweight. The model considered genetic group maturity rather than breed, in order to adjust growth parameters, once Parda de Montaña breed is not contemplated by AFRC (1993). Parameters from late maturing group were initially used considering adult animal size of Parda de Montaña animals; however, the best fit was with values from the early maturing group. The model predicted accurately animal growth in grazing and conventional finishing systems in Spain, although estimates were less precise when changes in animal management involved physiologic modifications.

O modelo Pampa Corte foi desenvolvido para simular de forma dinâmica e mecanistica o crescimento de bovinos de corte em sistemas de pastejo, sendo validado nas condições de produção brasileiras. Este trabalho tem como finalidade demonstrar a performance do modelo em situações de engorda tradicionais e alternativos de bovinos de corte na Espanha. Com essa finalidade, foram utilizados dados de 21 animais inteiros da raça Parda de Montanha com similar idade e peso de desmame e que foram abatidos individualmente quando atingiram o peso vivo de 450kg. O modelo considera grupos genéticos no ajuste de seus parâmetros conforme AFRC (1993), entretanto, a raça Parda de Montanha não é contemplada em suas tabelas. Devido ao seu tamanho adulto, inicialmente, foram considerados os parâmetros referentes ao grupo tardio de maturidade, entretanto, os melhores ajustes ocorreram ao serem utilizados os parâmetros de animais de maturidade precoce. O modelo prediz satisfatoriamente o crescimento e terminação dos animais nos sistemas convencionais e alternativos de produção. No entanto, essas predições são menos precisas quando envolve a troca de sistema de pastoreio para confinamento total.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Neste trabalho estudamos o problema de identificação do modelo de uma população utilizando um modelo dinâmico discreto baseado no modelo de crescimento de Richards. A população é submetida a intervenções devido ao consumo, como no caso de caça ou na criação de animais. A identificação do modelo permite-nos estimar a probabilidade ou o tempo médio de ocorrência para que se atinja um certo número populacional. A inferência paramétrica dos modelos é obtida através da técnica de perfil de máxima verossimilhança como desenvolvida neste trabalho. O método de identificação desenvolvido pode ser aplicado para avaliar a produtividade de criação animal ou o risco de extinção de uma população autóctone. Ele foi aplicado aos dados da população global de gado de corte bovino brasileiro, e é utilizado na investigação de a população atingir um certo número desejado de cabeças.

Age, growth, mortality and yield per recruit of the dourado Salminus brasiliensis, Corumbá Reservoir, Goiás State, Brazil

In order to evaluate the fate of the migratory species dourado Salminus brasiliensis in the first years of impoundment in Corumbá Reservoir we estimated age, growth, mortality and yield per recruit. Samplings were carried out monthly in Corumbá Reservoir and its main tributaries (Goiás State) from March 1998 to February 1999 using gillnets. After one year of impoundment, age was estimated from scales and the maximum number of rings was six for males and five for females. Rings are formed annually in May and June. The asymptotic length and growth rate for males and females were 37.1 cm and 0.77 and 56.6 cm and 0.52, respectively. A dominance of juveniles was verified in the reservoir and its tributaries. The instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) was 1.59 and the annual total mortality rate (A) was 79.6%. The highest yield per recruit (1200g) and the highest average weight (1900g) were obtained in simulations with low values of fishing (F) and natural (M) mortalities. Based on the above information we describe the Corumbá Reservoir impoundment has influenced the growth of the dourado. As regards this study, we recommend that the fishing effort not be applied during the trophic upsurge period and that the monitoring of the dourado assemblage continue. Fishery programs management for this species should be carried out with subsequent monitoring involving efficient communication, realistic practices and involvement of fisher organizations.

Com o propósito de avaliar o destino da espécie migradora dourado Salminus brasiliensis no primeiro ano de represamento do reservatório de Corumbá foi estimado a idade, crescimento, mortalidade e rendimento por recruta. As amostras foram capturadas no reservatório de Corumbá e seus principais tributários (Estado de Goiás) mensalmente de março de 1988 a fevereiro de 1999 usando-se redes de espera. Após um ano do represamento, a idade foi estimada das escamas e o número máximo de anéis foi seis para machos e cinco para fêmeas. Os anéis são formados anualmente de maio a junho. O comprimento assintótico e a taxa de crescimento para machos e fêmeas foram 37,1 cm e 0,77 e 56,6 cm e 0,52 cm, respectivamente. A dominância de juvenis foi constatada no reservatório e seus tributários. A taxa de mortalidade total instantânea (Z) foi 1,59 e a taxa de mortalidade total (A) foi 79,6%. O mais elevado rendimento por recrutamento (1200g) e peso médio (1900g) foi obtido em simulações com baixo valor de pesca (F) e mortalidade natural (M). Baseado nas informações acima foi determinado se o represamento do reservatório de Corumbá tem influenciado o crescimento do dourado. Como recomendação para este estudo, sugere-se que o esforço de pesca não seja aplicado durante o período de elevada produtividade trófica e que o monitoramento da assembleia de dourado continue. O programa de manejo para esta espécie deve ser conduzido com subsequente monitoramento envolvendo comunicação eficiente, práticas realistas e envolvimento das organizações de pesca.

Application of Multilevel Growth Model in Community Intervention Research / 中国卫生统计

Objective To explore the application of multilevel growth model in community intervention research. Methods The data a-bout blood pressure collected through questionnaire at baseline and 6 months, 12 months after intervention were analysed through multilevel growth model to evaluate the effectiveness of hypertension self-management. Results The blood pressures between the two groups were statistical significance at baseline,and the changing trends also were different. Age could affect diastolic blood pressure (DBP) changing after controlling the other factors. Conclusion Multilevel growth model can analyze the longitudinal data acquired from intervention research flexibly,and the result is more reliable.