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Objective To explore the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio on the prognosis of H7N9 avian influenza.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 28 H7N9 avian influenza patients (treatment group) at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from April 2013 to January 2016.Thirty healthy physical examiners in the same period were enrolled as the healthy control group.The 28 patients were followed up for half a year and divided into the improvement group (18 cases) and the death group (10 cases) according to the clinical prognosis.Inflammatory indicators including white blood cells (WBC),neutrophil (N),lymphocyte (L),monocytes (M),platelet (PLT),creatine kinase (CK),lactate dehydrogenase (LDH),high sensitive C reactive protein were collected at day 1,day 3 and week 1 of admission.Calculation of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR),platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR),lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR),△NLR3 (day 3 of admission NLR-on day 1 of admission NLR),△NLR7 (week 1 of admission NLR-day 3 of admission NLR) and so on calculating △PLR3,△PLR7,△LMR3,△LMR7.Differences of the above indicators between the improvement group and death group were compared.The measurement data with normal distribution were tested by t-test of two independent samples,and the count data with non-normal distribution were tested by Mann-Whitney U-test.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore the prognostic factors and the working characteristic curve of subjects was used to evaluate the predictive value of inflammatory response indexes for H7N9 avian influenza death.Results In the treatment group,the baseline WBC,L,N,PLT,the proportion of lymphocytes,neutrophils,monocytes,and NLR,PLR,and LMR were all statistically different compared with the healthy control group (all P ＜0.01).After treatment,day 3 NLR,△NLR3 in improvement group were both significantly decreased to 10.93 (15.71)and0.87 (-15.63),respectively when compared with death group (17.62[23.63] and 7.42[22.68],respectively) (Z =-2.16 and-2.014,respectively,both P＜0.05).Day 7 NLR,△NLR7 in improved group were 6.51 (13.23) and-0.37 (-12.38),respectively,which were both lower than those of death group (27.90 [25.64] and 11.54 [-26.22]) with statistically significant differences (Z =-2.444 and -2.111,respectively,both P ＜ 0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicates that △NLR3 is the main factor that affects the prognosis of the H7N9 infection (odds ratio [OR] =1.153,95％ confidence interval [CI]:1.052-1.263,P =0.002).Reciver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.733 (95 ％ CI:0.532-0.935,P =0.044).Based on the principle of Youden index,the cutoff value of △NLR3 to predict the death risk of H7N9 avian influenza was 5.453 with sensitivity of 0.700 and the specificity of 0.722.The mortality was higher when △NLR3 was higher than 5.453.Conclusions Dynamic monitoring NLR,especially △NLR3 may reflect the condition and prognosis of H7N9 infection,which is an independent predictor of death.
ABSTRACT
Short-term closing live poultry markets have been frequently adopted to control H7N9 epidemic.To evaluate the effect of short-term closing live poultry markets,we analyzed the data of environment surveillance of H7 by RT-PCR,and the human H7N9 cases in Zhongshan City from Feb 2014 to May 2017.RRx =The positive rate during the x-th week after closing / the positive rate of the week before closing days * 100％.Three rounds of short-term closing live poultry markets were administered.Round one:from Feb 10 to 23,2014,the neighboring cities didn't synchronize.The H7 positive rate increased since the trade recovered,and RR1 =0.40 (95％CI:0.28-0.59),RR3 =0.63 (95％CI:0.32-1.24),RR4 =0.83 (95％CI:0.48 -1.46).Two human cases were reported in May,2014.Round two:from Feb 19 to 28,2015,the neighboring cities synchronized as the province policy.The H7 positive rate maintained a level lower than 10％ since the trade recovered,and RR1 =0.15 (95％CI:0.07-0.34),RR2=0.21 (95％CI:0.10-0.41),RR3 =0.03 (95％CI:0.00-0.18),RR4 =0.10 (95％CI:0.04-0.27).No more human cases reported in that epidemic season.Round three:from Jan 8 to 21,2017,the neighboring cities didn't synchronize with Zhongshan City.The H7 positive rate had increased since the trade recovered,and RR1 =0.25 (95 ％ CI:0.09-0.68),RR3 =0.37 (95％CI:0.14-1.00),RR4 =1.07 (95％CI:0.54-2.11).Two human cases were reported in Feb,2017.Results indicated that,if the policy of closing live poultry markets was administered in single city,the environment pollution rate would rise shortly and the risk of human infection would increase once the trade recovered.However,if it was synchronously administered in all the cities in one region,the environment pollution rate could maintain at a low level and the risk of human infection would reduce enormously.
ABSTRACT
In March 2013,human cases of infection with the H7N9 avian influenza virus were reported in Shanghai and other places of China.This article highlights the background of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza virus,the biological characteristics,epidemiology and pathogenesis,the clinical features,prevention and treatment of H7N9 avian influenza.In all,Pediatricians need to be aware of H7N9 avian influenza.
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[Objective] To investigate and analyze the first case of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus ( H7N9) so as to provide scientific basis for control of avian influenza infec-tion in humans. [Methods] Epidemiological survey was carried out including the process of morbidity , possible infection source , transmission route and risk factors , etc.Strict observation was made on close con-tacts of the patient .Meanwhile the patient underwent clinical diagnosis , treatment and laboratory tests . [ Results] The patient was confirmed to be infected with highly pathogenic human avian influenza H 7N9 virus as ascertained by expert group of ministry of health ,and was cured and discharged .The patient had definate contact with live poultry , and using H7N9 pharyngeal swab through laboratory tests , avian influenza virus nucleic acid showed positivity results .No abnormalities were found in clinical manifestations in close contacts of the patient.By expanding surveillance on 160 cases of influenza-likeillness(ILI)and 858 cases of professional groups , the samples were not found to be H 7 N9 positive .However , on local live poultry market, two chicken pharyngeal swab specimens were detected to be H 7N9 positive.Positive chickens were from other provinces . [ Conclusion] History of live poultry exposure is believed to be the key risk fac-tors in infection with H7N9 virus.So far there has been no evidence of human-to-human transmission . There has not been subclinical infection or mild cases found in crowd .However ,there is the need to expand monitoring and epidemiological investigation so as to improve the understanding of the disease .