ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the predictive value of initial serum B-hCG and progesterone measurement for pregnancy outcome in IVF-ET. METHODS: Serum B-hCG at 11-12th day after embryo transfer and progesterone at 7th day after oocyte aspiration were measured in 48 successful pregnant IVF-ET cases from July 1993 to June 1997. RESULTS: Of 48 cases, 26 cases (54.2%) successfully carried to sustaining gestation and 22 cases (45.8%) failed to sustain gestation. The estimated initial serum B-hCG levels in the normal sustaining pregnancy group (132.28+ 22.42 mlU/ml) were statistical significantly higher than 29.43+8.08 mIU/ml in the failed sustaining pregnancy group (p<0.001), while the estimated initial serum progesterone levels showed no significant differences (p=0.159). In order to determine the predictive values using the Receiver Operator Curve (ROC), an appropriate cutoff value of 38 mIU/ml for initial serum B-hCG was obtained. In IVF-ET pregnancies, the estimated serum B-hCG levels in cases of chemical abortion in failed sustaining pregnancy were significantly lower compared to the normal sustaining pregnancy group (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The initial serum B-hCG levels at 11 days after embryo transfer could be used to predict the pregnancy outcome in an IVF program. An initial progesterone level acquired on the 7th day after oocyte retrieval is not a useful indicator to predict pregnancy outcome.