Revisión histórica, distribución potencial y estado de conservación de la rata endémica de México Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae) / Historical review, potential distribution, and conservation of the Mexican endemic rat Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae)

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como "En Peligro" de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as "Endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.

Predicting potential distribution and evaluating biotic interactions of threatened species: a case study of Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae) / Prevendo a distribuição potencial e avaliando interações bióticas de espécies ameaçadas: um estudo de caso de Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae)

Abstract: Information on distribution, number of populations, and biotic interactions are essential for assessing the threat status of species and to establish more effective conservation initiatives. Ecological niche modeling have been successfully applied to identify the potential distribution, even for rare species that have few recorded occurrence points. In this study, we evaluated the potential distribution and additionally generated the first data on the reproductive biology of Discocactus ferricola, due to its degree of threat and the absence of ecological data for that species. The potential distribution map highlighted areas with higher probability of occurrence of D. ferricola on the Residual Plateau of Maciço do Urucum located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The occurrence of D. ferricola populations was limited to outcrops of flat ironstone (cangas) distributed in patches across the landscape, increasing the chances of serious threats, such as habitat loss due to mining and species extraction. We also found that D. ferricola is xenogamous. Therefore, in situ conservation actions must prioritize the maintenance of interactions with pollinators by preserving the flora and fauna of rocky outcrops and adjacent forests in areas of greater environmental suitability for D. ferricola. Our study highlights the use of ecological niche modeling and data on biotic interactions to evaluate species potential distribution, to guide new sampling efforts, and to assist conservation and management initiatives.

Resumo: Informações sobre distribuição, número de populações e interações bióticas são essenciais para avaliar o status de ameaça das espécies e estabelecer iniciativas de conservação mais eficazes. A modelagem de nicho ecológico tem sido aplicada com sucesso para identificar a distribuição potencial, mesmo para espécies raras que possuem poucos pontos de ocorrência registrados. Neste estudo, avaliamos a distribuição potencial e adicionalmente geramos os primeiros dados sobre a biologia reprodutiva de Discocactus ferricola, devido ao seu grau de ameaça e à ausência de dados ecológicos para essa espécie. O mapa de distribuição potencial destacou áreas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência de D. ferricola no Planalto Residual do Maciço do Urucum localizado em Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. A ocorrência de populações de D. ferricola foi limitada aos afloramentos ferruginosos planos (cangas) que são distribuídos em manchas pela paisagem, aumentando as chances de ameaças graves, como perda de habitat devido à mineração e extração da espécie. Também descobrimos que D. ferricola é xenogâmica. Portanto, ações de conservação in situ devem priorizar a manutenção das interações com os polinizadores através da preservação da flora e da fauna nos afloramentos rochosos e florestas adjacentes nas áreas de maior adequabilidade ambiental para D. ferricola. Nesse estudo, nós destacamos o uso da modelagem de nicho ecológico e de dados sobre interações bióticas para avaliar a distribuição potencial de espécies, orientar novos esforços de amostragem e auxiliar iniciativas de conservação e manejo.

Effect of climate change on spatial distribution of scorpions of significant public health importance in Iran

Objective: To establish a spatial geo-database for scorpions in Iran, and to identify the suitable ecological niches for the most dangerous scorpion species under different climate change scenarios. Methods: The spatial distribution of six poisonous scorpion species of Iran were modeled: Hemiscorpius lepturus, Androctonus crassicauda, Mesobuthus eupeus, Hottentotta saulcyi, Hottentotta zagrosensis, and Odontobuthus (O.) doriae, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to predict climate suitability for these scorpion species in the 2030s and 2050s, and the data were compared with environmental suitability under the current bioclimatic data. Results: A total of 73 species and subspecies of scorpions belonging to 19 genera in Iran were recorded. Khuzestan Province has the highest species diversity with 34 species and subspecies. The most poisonous scorpion species of Iran are scattered in the semi-arid climates, at an altitudinal range between 11 m and 2 954 m above sea level. It is projected that O. doriae, Androctonus crassicauda and Mesobuthus eupeus species would be widely distributed in most parts of the country, whereas the most suitable ecological niches for the other species would be limited to the west and/or southwestern part of Iran. Conclusions: Although the environmental suitability for all the species would change under the two climate change scenarios, the change would be more significant for O. doriae under RCP8.5 in the 2050s. These findings can be used as basis for future studies in the areas with the highest environmental suitability for the most dangerous scorpion species to fill the gaps in the ecology of scorpion species in these areas.

Effect of climate change on spatial distribution of scorpions of significant public health importance in Iran

Objective: To establish a spatial geo-database for scorpions in Iran, and to identify the suitable ecological niches for the most dangerous scorpion species under different climate change scenarios. Methods: The spatial distribution of six poisonous scorpion species of Iran were modeled: Hemiscorpius lepturus, Androctonus crassicauda, Mesobuthus eupeus, Hottentotta saulcyi, Hottentotta zagrosensis, and Odontobuthus (O.) doriae, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to predict climate suitability for these scorpion species in the 2030s and 2050s, and the data were compared with environmental suitability under the current bioclimatic data. Results: A total of 73 species and subspecies of scorpions belonging to 19 genera in Iran were recorded. Khuzestan Province has the highest species diversity with 34 species and subspecies. The most poisonous scorpion species of Iran are scattered in the semi-arid climates, at an altitudinal range between 11 m and 2 954 m above sea level. It is projected that O. doriae, Androctonus crassicauda and Mesobuthus eupeus species would be widely distributed in most parts of the country, whereas the most suitable ecological niches for the other species would be limited to the west and/or southwestern part of Iran. Conclusions: Although the environmental suitability for all the species would change under the two climate change scenarios, the change would be more significant for O. doriae under RCP8.5 in the 2050s. These findings can be used as basis for future studies in the areas with the highest environmental suitability for the most dangerous scorpion species to fill the gaps in the ecology of scorpion species in these areas.

Biogeografía del tomate Solanum lycopersicum var. cerasiforme (Solanaceae) en su centro de origen (sur de América) y de domesticación (México)

El tomate (Solanum lycopersicum) es una de las principales hortalizas en el mundo debido a las importantes ganancias económicas que genera su comercialización; sin embargo, a pesar de que la especie es ampliamente cultivada en el mundo, su diversidad genética se considera restringida. Esto hace que su resistencia a plagas y enfermedades en las variedades actualmente cultivadas sea baja. Existe la forma silvestre S. l. var ceraciforme que se distribuye desde Suramérica (centro de origen) hasta México (área de domesticación), específicamente en la vertiente del Golfo de México en Veracruz. Como objetivo, se quiso identificar patrones de diversificación ambiental con los que se pudiesen inferir procesos de adaptación de las poblaciones en el área de domesticación con respecto a su centro de origen. Asimismo, se planteó proponer medidas de conservación y rescate del tomate S. l. var. cerasiforme. Se realizaron modelos de nicho ecológico (MNE) con Maxent versión 3.4.1 (evaluados con AUC y ROC-parcial) para determinar la idoneidad de las condiciones ambientales, incluyendo proyecciones del centro de domesticación al área de origen y viceversa. Esto se realizó con base en ocho variables de temperatura y precipitación. Los registros de tomate fueron tomados de fuentes bibliográficas y trabajo de campo. Seguidamente, se realizó la prueba de comparación de nichos (equivalencia y similitud), propuesta por Broennimann et al. (2012), para evaluar la similitud de condiciones ambientales en ambas regiones. Posteriormente, se realizó un análisis de varianza seguido de una prueba de comparación de medias (Tukey, P ≤ 0.05) con las ocho variables ambientales utilizadas. Los valores de AUC (0.93 y 0.80) y ROC-parcial obtenidos (1.86 y 1.71; P = 0.0001) de los MNE muestran que fueron buenos modelos predictores. Se observó que en el centro de México existen condiciones ambientales similares a las del centro de origen, a diferencia de la vertiente del Golfo de México donde son diferentes. La prueba de equivalencia mostró que la comparación ambiental entre ambas regiones es menos equivalente que lo esperado por azar (P = 0.003). Mientras tanto, la otra prueba indica que la similitud que existe entre ambas regiones también se puede obtener por azar (P = 0.683). También, se encontraron diferencias significativas en tres variables de temperatura y precipitación. En conclusión, el centro de origen y de domesticación de S. l. var. cerasiforme tienen características ambientales en común a pesar de la distancia geográfica, pero existen zonas geográficas (vertiente del Golfo de México en Veracruz) en el área de domesticación con condiciones ambientales diferentes a las de su centro de origen y con un potencial importante como bancos de germoplasma.

The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) is one of the main horticultural crops in the world because of the important economic benefits that its commercialization generates. Even though the species is widely cultivated in the world, it is susceptible to pests, diseases, and environmental stresses due to the loss of its genetic diversity. There is a wild form called S. l. var ceraciforme that is distributed from South America (its center of origin) to Mexico (its area of domestication), specifically on the slope of the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz. Due to the large genetic diversity of these wild tomatoes, it is important to improve its crop. The objective of this investigation was to identify patterns of environmental diversification of the tomato, infer the processes of adaptation of the populations in the area of domestication with respect to their center of origin and propose measures of conservation and variation of S. l. var. cerasiforme. We generated two ecological niche models (MNE) with Maxent version 3.4.1 (evaluated with AUC and partial-ROC) to determine the suitability of environmental conditions including their respective projections from the domestication center to the area of origin and vice versa. We used eight variables of temperature and precipitation. Additionally, we included tomato records from bibliographical sources and fieldwork. We also used the niche comparison test (equivalency and similarity) proposed by Broennimann et al. (2012) to evaluate the similarity of environmental conditions in both regions. Subsequently, we carried out an analysis of variance followed by a mean comparison test (Tukey, P ≤ 0.05) with all environmental variables measured. The values of AUC (0.93 and 0.80) and partial-ROC (1.86 and 1.71, P = 0.0001) of the MNE showed that they were good predictive models. We observed that, in the center of Mexico, there are environmental conditions similar to those of the center of origin, unlike the slope of the Gulf of Mexico where they are different. The equivalency test showed that the environmental comparison between both regions is less similar than expected by chance (P = 0.003). The similarity test indicated that the existing similarity between both regions can also be obtained by chance (P = 0.683). We also found significant differences in three temperature and precipitation variables. In conclusion, we determined that the center of origin and domestication of S. l. var. cerasiforme has similar environmental characteristics despite the geographic distance; nevertheless, there are geographical zones (the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz) in the area of domestication with different environmental conditions. Those places have the potential to contain valuable germplasms.

Geographic distribution analysis of the genusXenodacnis (Birds: Thraupidae) using ecologicalniche modeling

Xenodacnis is a monotypic thraupid genus restricted to the tropical high Andes of Peru and Ecuador. Its only species, X. parina has a large discontinuous distribution from central Ecuador to southern Peru. To date, three subspecies are recognized, all separated by geographical barriers that clouded promote allopatric events. The taxonomic affinities of the Ecuadorian population have not been assessed since its discovery in the 1970s at the Cajas National Park in Azuay province. I studied the environmental affinities between the distribution of the described subspecies and the Ecuadorian population bias ecological niche modeling. I found a distinctive ecological niche in the distribution of each of the analyzed populations and also for the southern Arequipa population. These different environmental niche conditions come apart by deep Andean valleys playing a role as geographical barriers for the isolation of these populations that need further taxonomic analysis.

Xenodacnis es un género de traupido mono típico restringido a los altos Andes tropicales de Perú y Ecuador. Su única especie, X. parina tiene una distribución extensa pero discontinua desde el centro Ecuador hasta el sur de Perú. A la fecha se reconocen tres subespecies, todas separadas por barreras geográficas que pudieron promover eventos alopátricos. Las afinidades taxonómicas de la población de ecuador no se han analizado desde su descubrimiento en los años 70 dentro del Parque Nacional Cajas en la provincia del Azuay. Yo estudié las afinidades ambientales entre las distribuciones de las subespecies descritas y la población en Ecuador mediante modelos de nicho ambiental. Encontré diferentes condiciones ambientales en los nichos de cada una de las poblaciones analizadas y también para la población sureña de Arequipa. Estas diferencias ambientales están separadas por profundos valles Andinos que cumplen el roll de barreras geográficas para el aislamiento de estas poblaciones que necesitan un próximo análisis taxonómico.

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

Vegetation loss and the 2016 Oropouche fever outbreak in Peru

BACKGROUND Oropouche virus causes Oropouche fever, an arboviral disease transmitted mainly by midges of the genus Culicoides and Culex mosquitoes. Clinical presentation of Oropouche fever in humans includes fever, headache, rash, myalgia, and in rare cases spontaneous bleeding and aseptic meningitis. Landscape change has been proposed as a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. OBJECTIVE To investigate the landscape epidemiology of the Oropouche fever outbreak that began in April 2016 in Cusco, Peru. METHODS We used information of vegetation and multivariate spatial analyses including ecological niche modeling. Vegetation was characterised using16-day composite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) images at 500 m spatial resolution from the MODIS sensor carried by the Terra satellite. FINDINGS Cases were distributed across seven Peruvian districts in two provinces. La Concepcion was the province with most of the affected districts. EVI time series across 2000 to 2016 suggested a decline in the vegetation in sites with Oropouche fever cases before the epidemic. Our ecological niche modeling suggests that other areas in Junin, Apurimac, and Madre de Dios departments are at risk of Oropouche fever occurrence. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our results may provide a guide for future fieldwork to test hypotheses regarding Oropouche fever emergence and habitat loss in tropical Latin America.

The ShearStress importance on the spatial distribution pattern of the invader Limnoperna fortunei in the Upper Paraná River Basin. - An assessment based on the Spatial Distribution Models / Importância da força de cisalhamento no padrão de distribuição espacial do invasor Limnoperna fortunei na Bacia do Alto rio Paraná. - Uma avaliação com base em Modelos de Distribuição Espacial

The introduction of the golden mussel, Limnoperna fortunei(Dunker, 1857) in South America was related to the discharge of ballast water, with its first record in 1991 in the La Plata River estuary. Since then, the species is spreading throughout the continent, with several economic and ecological negative consequences. Aim: To model, in the headwaters of Parana River, the spatial distribution ofL. fortunei and to understand the determinants of the current pattern of species distribution and the risk of invasion of areas not yet colonized. Methods: The ecological niche of L. fortunei was modeled using the algorithm MAXENT (Maximum Entropy Method) combined with records of occurrence of the bivalve, limnological data and the shear force measured by the index Hack (SL). The evaluation of the performance of different models was based on AUC (Area Under the Curve).The analysis of each variable's contribution to the responses of the models was made based on the Jackknife test, available in the Maxent program. The models were validated with real absence data collected between 2006 and 2007. Based on the limnological characterization of the area and on outputs of the models, this analysis sought to understand the contributing aspects to the current and potential spatial distribution and to verify the risk of invasion of environments not yet colonized by the species. Results/Conclusion: The limnological characterization showed that the ecological requirements for the species as, pH, calcium, oxygen and chlorophyll a, were appropriate in both the connected stretches, invaded and non-invaded. Turbidity showed significant spatial differences which proved to be higher in environments with higher levels of Hack (SL), i.e. higher energy fluvial. In addition, the algorithm showed the importance of hydrodynamical aspects expressed by Hack index (SL) to the spatial distribution of species, since the models with the best performances were those that considered the Hack index (SL) as one of the environmental layers of the mussel's niche. All models indicated a high risk of invasion into the reservoir of São Simão.

A introdução do mexilhão dourado, Limnoperna fortunei(Dunker, 1857) na América do Sul esteve relacionada ès descargas de água de lastro, com seu primeiro registro em 1991, no estuário do rio da Prata. Desde então a espécie vai adentrando o continente - com várias consequências negativas em âmbitos econômicos e ecológicos. Objetivo: modelar em escala local a distribuição espacial de L. fortunei buscando melhor entender os fatores determinantes do padrão atual de distribuição da espécie e estimar o risco de invasão de áreas ainda não colonizadas. Métodos: A modelagem do nicho de L. fortunei foi realizada por meio do algoritmo MAXENT (Maximum Entropy Method) aliado a registros de ocorrência do bivalve, è dados limnológicos e è força de cisalhamento medida pelo índice de Hack (SL). A avaliação do desempenho dos diferentes modelos foi feita com base na AUC (Área sob a Curva). A análise da contribuição isolada das diferentes variáveis para as respostas dos modelos foi feita com base no teste Jackknife disponível no programa Maxent. Os modelos gerados foram validados com dados reais de ausência coletados entre 2006 e 2007. Com base na caracterização limnológica da área e nas respostas geradas pelos modelos de distribuição potencial, buscou-se entender quais aspectos estariam contribuindo para a distribuição espacial atual e potencial e verificar o risco de invasão de ambientes ainda não colonizados pela espécie. Resultados/Conclusão: A caracterização limnológica mostrou que os requerimentos ecológicos para a espécie como pH, cálcio, oxigênio e clorofila a foram igualmente adequados entre trechos invadidos e não invadidos conectados. Diferenças espaciais significativas foram encontradas em relação è turbidez, que se mostrou mais elevada nos ambientes com maiores índices de Hack (SL), ou seja, com maior energia fluvial. O algoritmo utilizado mostrou a importância de aspectos hidrodinâmicos, expressos pelo índice de Hack (SL) na distribuição espacial da espécie, uma vez que, os modelos com melhor desempenho foram aqueles que consideraram o índice de Hack (SL) como uma das camadas ambientais na composição do nicho da espécie. Todos os modelos indicaram também o alto risco de invasão para o reservatório de São Simão.

Trans-Amazon dispersal potential for Crotalus durissus during Pleistocene climate events / Potencial de dispersión trans-Amazónica de Crotalus durissus durante el Pleistoceno

Two disjunct distributional areas of Crotalus durissus (Neotropical rattlesnake) are in open habitats north and south of the Amazon Basin and are presently separated by humid rainforest habitats. We used ecological niche modeling to identify and investigate potential dispersal pathways for this species between the two areas during the late Pleistocene. Niches estimated for the two populations did not differ significantly. Our analyses indicated two possible, but a single most likely, potential routes of dispersal during the last glacial cycle. These results are important to understanding the history of Amazon Basin humid forest biotas, as they suggest agents of isolation among putative humid forest refugia in the form of dry forest and scrub, and associated biotas.

Actualmente existen dos áreas de distribución disyuntas de la serpiente de cascabel Crotalus durissus, afín a hábitats abiertos, al norte y al sur de la cuenca del Río Amazonas, separadas por selvas húmedas. Usamos técnicas de modelado de nicho ecológico para identificar corredores potenciales de dispersión para esta especie entre las dos áreas en el Pleistoceno tardío. Los nichos estimados para las poblaciones de cada una de las áreas de distribución no presentaron diferencias significativas. Nuestros análisis identificaron un corredor de dispersión más probable para esta especie durante el Último Máximo Glaciar. Estos resultados tienen implicaciones para el entendimiento de la historia de las biotas de las selvas húmedas del Amazonas, ya que sugieren causas de aislamiento entre refugios potenciales de selva húmeda, en la forma de selva seca y matorral.

DISTRIBUCIÓN POTENCIAL DE Podocnemis lewyana (REPTILIA:PODOCNEMIDIDAE) Y SU POSIBLE FLUCTUACIÓN BAJO ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO GLOBAL / Potential Distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and Its Possible Fluctuation Under Different Global Climate Change Scenarios

En este estudio se implementó el modelaje de distribución de especies para establecer el rango de distribución potencial de Podocnemis lewyana, explorar los componentes del clima que pueden influenciar dicha distribución y evaluar posibles fluctuaciones de su distribución bajo escenarios de clima futuro. Los modelos obtenidos predicen una distribución continua de sur a norte por todo el río Magdalena, desde los municipios de Rivera y Palermo en el departamento de Huila, hasta los departamentos de Atlántico y Magdalena en el norte. La temperatura fue el elemento del clima que más influyó en la distribución de P. lewyana; esta especie tiende a estar presente en climas cálidos y con poca variabilidad en la temperatura. El modelo de distribución transferido a los escenarios de clima futuro predicen un aumento en el rango geográfico de P. lewyana. Sin embargo, teniendo en cuenta las preferencias de hábitat de esta especie y su fuerte asociación con los cuerpos de agua, este resultado debe tomarse con cautela, dado que el modelo solo tuvo en cuenta variables climáticas terrestres. Dadas las características de historia de vida de esta especie (presencia de determinación sexual dependiente de la temperatura, alta temperatura pivotal y un rango de transición de temperatura muy estrecho), y el efecto negativo de los cambios en los regímenes hidrológicos en la mortalidad embrionaria, la expansión del área potencial de P. lewyana en el futuro no significa que esta especie no vaya a verse afectada por el cambio climático global.

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the department of Huila to the departments of Atlántico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature-dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis. .

Brazilian Atlantic Forest lato sensu: the most ancient Brazilian forest, and a biodiversity hotspot, is highly threatened by climate change

After 500 years of exploitation and destruction, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been reduced to less the 8% of its original cover, and climate change may pose a new threat to the remnants of this biodiversity hotspot. In this study we used modelling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of trees that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica), considering two global warming scenarios. The optimistic scenario, based in a 0.5% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, predicts an increase of up to 2 °C in the Earth's average temperature; in the pessimistic scenario, based on a 1% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature increase may reach 4 °C. Using these parameters, the occurrence points of the studied species registered in literature, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Predictions/GARP and Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions/MaxEnt we developed models of present and future possible occurrence of each species, considering Earth's mean temperature by 2050 with the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO2 emission. The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurrence of the species studied, as well as a shift towards southern areas of Brazil. Using GARP, on average, in the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 50%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible area of occurrence are: Euterpe edulis, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis and Vochysia magnifica. Using MaxEnt, on average, in the optimistic scenario the reduction will be of 20% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 30%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction are: Hyeronima alchorneoides, Schefflera angustissima, Andira fraxinifolia and the species of Myrtaceae studied.

Nos últimos 500 anos de ocupação da costa brasileira, de um total de 1.300.000 km², apenas cerca de 8% da cobertura original da Mata Atlântica foi preservada. Os poucos fragmentos restantes dessa devastação apresentam diversos tamanhos, formas, estádios de sucessão e situação de conservação. Cerca de metade dos remanescentes florestais de grande extensão estão protegidos na forma de Unidades de Conservação. A maioria desses fragmentos se encontra hoje nas regiões serranas, principalmente a fachada da Serra do Mar, por serem impróprias para práticas agrícolas. Neste estudo, usamos técnicas de modelagem para determinar a distribuição geográfica presente e futura de 38 espécies arbóreas típicas da Mata Atlântica lato sensu, considerando dois cenários de aquecimento global. O cenário otimista prevê uma taxa anual de 0,5% de aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera e um aumento médio da temperatura inferior a 2 °C. O cenário pessimista prevê uma taxa anual de 1,0% de aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera e um aumento médio da temperatura superior a 3 °C. Usando estes parâmetros, os pontos de ocorrência atual das espécies e o algoritmo genético para previsões baseadas em regras pré-estabelecidas (GARP), desenvolvemos modelos da distribuição futura das espécies estudadas, considerando as temperaturas projetadas para 2050. Os resultados obtidos mostraram uma alarmante redução na área que as espécies estudadas poderão ocupar, bem como um deslocamento da ocorrência atual em direção ao sul do Brasil. Na média, com o cenário otimista, a redução da área potencial de ocorrência é de 25%, enquanto que no cenário pessimista este patamar é da ordem de 50%. As espécies que sofrerão a maior redução na área de ocorrência são: Euterpe edulis, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis e Vochysia magnifica.

Modeling the potential distribution of the invasive golden mussel Limnoperna fortunei in the Upper Paraguay River system using limnological variables

The invasive golden mussel, Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857), was introduced into the La Plata River estuary and quickly expanded upstream to the North, into the Paraguay and Paraná rivers. An ecological niche modeling approach, based on limnological variables, was used to predict the expansion of the golden mussel in the Paraguay River and its tributaries. We used three approaches to predict the geographic distribution: 1) the spatial distribution of calcium concentration and the saturation index for calcium carbonate (calcite); 2) the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) model; and the 3) Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent) model. Other limnological variables such as temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) were used in the latter two cases. Important tributaries of the Paraguay River such as the Cuiabá and Miranda/Aquidauana rivers exhibit high risk of invasion, while lower risk was observed in the chemically dilute waters of the middle basin where shell calcification may be limited by low calcium concentrations and carbonate mineral undersaturation.

A espécie invasora mexilhão dourado, Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857), foi introduzida na bacia do Rio da Prata e rapidamente se expandiu em direção ao norte, nos rios Paraguai e Paraná. A modelagem de nicho ecológico com base em variáveis limnológicas foi utilizada para prever a expansão do mexilhão dourado na bacia do Alto Paraguai. Foram usados três métodos para prever a distribuição espacial do mexilhão dourado: 1) a distribuição espacial da concentração de cálcio e o índice de saturação do carbonato de cálcio (calcita); 2) a modelagem utilizando o algoritmo Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP); e 3) a modelagem usando o Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent). Outras variáveis como temperatura da água, oxigênio dissolvido, pH e sólidos totais suspensos também foram utilizadas na modelagem. Importantes tributários do Rio Paraguai como Cuiabá e Miranda exibem alto risco de invasão, e menores riscos foram observados para águas mais diluídas na parte média da bacia, onde a calcificação das conchas pode ser limitada pela baixa concentração do cálcio e dos carbonatos minerais abaixo do nível de saturação.