Population Forecasts for Bangladesh, Using a Bayesian Methodology.

Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible.

Single-exponential and dual-exponential fitting methods of MR T2-Map / 中国医学影像技术

Objective To assess the single-exponential and dual-exponential fitting methods of MR T2-Map, and to get T2 value of each pixel. Methods Single and dual-exponential methods with linear fitting and non-linear regression fitting techniques were used for a series images with different TE; then T2-Map images were achieved. T2-Map software was realized on MATLAB and it had the function of compute, display, save and so on. Results T2-Map software with single-exponential and dual-exponential fitting methods was achieved, able to calculate T2 value of tissues everywhere and form the T2-Map image. Conclusion Single-exponential T2-Map method is convenient, having obvious merit-high speed, but can not show the area with obvious different contents very well. However, dual-exponential fitting method can deal with this question with providing different T2 values, thus is accurate with the sacrifice of costing too much time. Dual-exponential fitting method of T2-Map is a beneficial supplement to single-exponential method.

Comparison of methods for phenotypic stability analysis of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) genotypes for yield and storage root dry matter content

The objective of this work was to compare different phenotypic stability methods by using yield and storage root dry matter content data of eight cassava genotypes, assessed in eight environments in northwest of Paraná State, Brazil. All the methodologies applied showed to be able to study the stability of cassava genotypes, but each with its peculiarities. The methodologies of Eskridge, Annicchiarico and Lin and Binns were the most appropriated on situation with smaller effect of G x E interaction. The AMMI analysis and the Toler and Burrows methodology were the most specific on detailing specific adaptations of cassava genotypes to favorable and unfavorable environments. It could be suggested to use simultaneous AMMI analysis and Toler and Burrows methodology. The clone IAC 190-89 was the most promising.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar diferentes metodologias de análise de estabilidade fenotípica considerando produção e teor de matéria seca nas raízes tuberosas de oito genótipos de mandioca, avaliados em oito ambientes na região Noroeste do Paraná. Todas as metodologias aplicadas se mostraram aptas no estudo da estabilidade dos genótipos avaliados, cada uma delas com suas particularidades. As metodologias de Eskridge, Annicchiarico e Lin e Binns se mostraram mais adequadas para situações de menor efeito da interação G x A. A análise AMMI e a metodologia de Toler e Burrows propiciaram um melhor detalhamento das adaptações específicas dos genótipos a ambientes favoráveis e desaforáveis. É sugerido o uso simultâneo da análise AMMI e da metodologia de Toler e Burrows. O clone IAC 190-89 mostrou-se mais promissor.

Cronograma de amostragem de plantas de alface hidropônica para ajuste de curvas de crescimento / Hydroponic lettuce sampling chronogram for fitting growth curves

O ajuste de curvas de crescimento de plantas de alface durante seu ciclo necessita de amostragens no tempo, o que restringe o número de efeitos de tratamentos estudados. Com o objetivo de determinar o cronograma de amostragem de plantas de alface em hidroponia para o ajuste de curvas de crescimento até a fase de maturação das sementes, foram realizados dois cultivos em casa de vegetação durante a primavera e o outono, em área pertencente ao Departamento de Fitotecnia, na UFSM, Santa Maria, RS. A partir do ajuste de um modelo de crescimento com amostragem diária, simularam-se diferentes cronogramas de amostragem para o ajuste do mesmo modelo. Para encontrar o cronograma de maior intervalo entre amostragens, ou seja, menor número de coletas, foi comparado o ajuste do modelo de amostragem diária com os ajustes dos modelos dos diferentes intervalos de amostragens simulados, dois a dois, pelo teste F. Foram realizadas simulações considerando desde a data de transplante até a produção de sementes, para variáveis de fitomassa seca da planta e de partes da planta e área foliar. Em experimentos realizados com alface hidropônica na primavera, para o ciclo completo, recomendam-se amostragens a cada 3, 8, 20 e 9 dias para fitomassa seca relativa total da planta de alface, de folhas, de raiz e área foliar, respectivamente; enquanto que, para experimentos realizados no outono, é recomendável utilizar intervalos de amostragens a cada 2, 11, 12 e 11 dias, respectivamente.

The fitting of growth curves for lettuce plants requires many samplings within o time interval, while can restrict the number of studied treatments. With the aim o determine sampling chronogram hidroponic lettuce for the fitting of growth curves until maturation of seeds. Two greenhouse trials were carried out in spring an autumn, at UFSM experimental area, Santa Maria, RS. Different sampling interval were simulated using the fitting of a daily model. The optimum sampling interval were determined by comparing daily sampling model with simulated sampling model by F test. Simulations were carried between out for the following variables: total leaf, root and leaf area phytomass. Based on trials carried out during spring it is recommended sampling in intervals of three (total), eight (leaf), 20 (roots) and nine (leaf area) days and for carried out in autumn the sampling interval should be of two, 11, 12 and 11 days.

Degradability study of neutral detergent fiber of coast cross (Cynodon dactylon x Cynodon nlemfunensis)

The objective of this work was to fit the degradation model proposed by Orskov & McDonald (1979) to data of an in situ degradability trial. Neutral detergent fiber degradations (NDF) of coast cross grass (Cynodon dactylon x Cynodon nlemfunensis) were submitted to twelve cutting ages (30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, 210, 240, 270, 300, 330 and 360 days) in a complete block design. At each cutting age, NDF degradation was investigated using nine incubation times (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours) in a split-plot design, taking cutting age as main plots and incubation time as subplots. Each plot comprised a non-lactating cow with a permanent ruminal fistula. Variances of the parameter estimates were also obtained, as well as expressions for the estimation of confidence intervals for parameters in the model. A good fit of the model to the data of neutral detergent fiber degradability in the most cutting ages was found. The cutting ages of the coast cross grass influenced the degradability of different fractions, benefiting early stages. In advanced cutting ages the parameters estimates were less precise.

Objetivou-se com este trabalho ajustar o modelo de degradação proposto por Orskov & McDonald (1979) aos dados de um experimento de degradabilidade in situ. Foi avaliada a degradação da fibra em detergente neutro (FDN) da gramínea Coast Cross (Cynodon dactylon x Cynodon nlemfunensis) submetida a doze idades de corte (30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, 210, 240, 270, 300, 330 e 360 dias) em um delineamento em blocos casualizados. Em cada idade de corte a degradação da FDN foi avaliada em nove tempos de incubação (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96 e 120 horas) em um esquema de parcela subdividida, com as idades de corte na parcela e os tempos de incubação na subparcela. Cada parcela foi constituída por uma vaca não-lactante com fístula ruminal permanente. O ajuste do modelo foi avaliado através da interpretação biológica dos parâmetros, coeficiente de determinação, quadrado médio do resíduo e teste de aderência (lack of fit). As variâncias dos estimadores dos parâmetros também foram obtidas por meio da matriz de covariância dos parâmetros fornecendo expressões para estimação do intervalo de confiança dos parâmetros do modelo. O modelo se ajustou bem aos dados de degradabilidade da fibra em detergente neutro na maioria das idades de corte. As idades de corte da gramínea Coast Cross influenciaram a degradabilidade das diferentes frações, favorecendo os cortes mais precoces. Nas idades de corte avançadas as estimativas dos parâmetros foram menos precisas.

Comparison of two mathematical models in the description of in situ degradability

With the purpose of comparing the ruminal degradation models, proposed by Waldo et al. (1972) and Mertens and Loften(1980), the data of in situ degradability were employed. The experiment evaluated the potentially degradable residue of neutraldetergent fiber (NDF) of grass Tifton 85 (Cynodon spp) submitted to twelve cutting ages (30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, 210, 240,270, 300, 330 and 360 days), in a randomized block design with three replicates. At each cutting age, NDF degradation wasinvestigated by utilizing nine incubation times (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours). The analysis was done by taking intoaccount a strip experiment and the factors studied were cutting ages and the incubation times of the grass. Each plot compriseda non-lactating cow, with a permanent ruminal fistula. The quality of the fit of each model was evaluated by the respective fitteddetermination coefficients, test for lack of fit and also the variances of the estimators of the parameters, by proposing expressionsfor estimate of the confidence interval for the parameters of the models. The results showed a better fit of the model by Waldo etal. (1972) to the data of neutral detergent fiber of grass Tifton 85.