ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the supply of occupational and environmental medicine specialties in the target year of 2020. METHODS: We adopted alternative projection models combined with a demographic method as a supply forecasting method. The model uses data selected primarily from the database of the Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (KSOEM), a survey for certified members of KSOEM, audit data from the Ministry of Employment and Labor (MOEL) and Hospital Accreditation. We assumed five viable alternatives in supply forecasting. RESULTS: Depending on the assumptions, the total occupational and environmental medicine specialties supply ranged from 706 by low-level supply estimates to 754 by high-level supply estimates in 2020. Among them, approximately 81% were estimated to engage themselves in agency for health management and periodic health examinations for workers exposed to hazards. CONCLUSIONS: The study results suggest that the supply of occupational and environmental medicine specialties is related to the policy of MOEL. Further studies are needed concerning overall policy about health and safety and for the newly demanded market.