ABSTRACT
Abstract Introduction: Despite extensive science-based conservation policy recommendations, with fewer than 20 individuals remaining, the vaquita (Phocoena sinus) -endemic to the Gulf of California- is the world's most endangered marine mammal due to incidental catch in fishing nets and whether it can recover is unclear. Objective: Assess expectations for vaquita over the next two decades. Methods: We identified factors affecting the vaquita, constructed life tables, derived demographic parameters for different scenarios and conducted a population viability analysis using stochastic age-structured matrix Leslie models. Results: Analytical results indicate that the vaquita net growth rate is particularly sensitive to juvenile survival. We find that intensive, ongoing bycatch in gillnets used to poach totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) over the past decade brought the vaquita population to its current critically low size. Currently this seems to be exacerbated by demographic stochasticity and a potential Allee effect. Conclusions: If totoaba poaching is eliminated immediately, demographically, vaquita can recover; its long-term survival will depend on its uncertain genetic status, although a recent study found encouraging results in this regard.
Resumen Introducción: Pese a las acciones de conservación basadas en la ciencia y las políticas recomendadas, con menos de 20 individuos sobrevivientes, la vaquita (Phocoena sinus) -endémica del Golfo de California- es el mamífero marino más amenazado del mundo debido a su muerte incidental en redes de pesca; una pregunta relevante es si su población se puede recuperar. Objetivo: Evaluar las expectativas para la vaquita marina durante los próximos 20 años. Métodos: Identificamos los factores que afectan a la vaquita marina, construimos tablas de vida, derivamos parámetros demográficos para diferentes escenarios y realizamos un análisis de viabilidad poblacional utilizando matrices estocásticas de Leslie, estructuradas por edad. Resultados: La tasa de crecimiento neto de la vaquita es muy sensible a la supervivencia de los juveniles. Encontramos que la captura incidental intensiva y continua en redes de enmalle para la pesca furtiva de totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) durante la última década llevó a la población de vaquitas a su actual estado crítico. Esto parece agravarse por la estocasticidad demográfica y un potencial efecto Allee. Conclusiones: Si la pesca furtiva de totoaba se elimina de inmediato, demográficamente la vaquita puede recuperarse; su supervivencia a largo plazo dependerá de su incierto estatus genético, aunque los resultados de un estudio reciente son alentadores en este sentido.
Subject(s)
Animals , Endangered Species , Phocoena , Fishing Industry , CaliforniaABSTRACT
Canopy seed bank is an important adaptive evolutionary trait that provides various types of protection to the seeds. However, costing of such evolutionary trait on plant survival is largely unknown. Present investigation provided a new insight on the serotonious habit of Blepharis sindica associated with its endangerment status. Extinction probabilities of two available population of B. sindica were quantified using two types of census data, i.e., fruiting body number and actual population size. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) revealed that delayed seed release tendency (higher fruiting body number) was not synchronized with actual ground conditions (lower population size). PVA analysis based on actual population size indicated that both the available populations would vanish within 20 years. The mean time of extinction calculated from both type census data indicated its extinction within 48 years. For assessing the conservation criteria, a glass house experiment was carried out with different soil types and compositions. Pure sand and higher proportions of sand -silt were more suitable compared to clay; further, gravelly surface was the most unsuitable habitat for this species. Collection of the seeds from mature fruits/capsule and their sowing with moderate moisture availability with sandy soil could be recommended.
ABSTRACT
Despite methodological and theoretical advances in conservation genetics, data on genetic variation on broad regional spatial scales are still scarce, leading conservation planners to use general heuristic or simulation models for an integrated analysis of genetic, demographic and landscape parameters. Here, we extended previous results by evaluating spatial patterns of extinction by inbreeding depression under stochastic variation of environments for mammalian populations in 31 conservation units of the Brazilian Cerrado. We observed a large spatial variation of times to extinction, for different conservation units and body-size classes of species. For small-bodied species (500 g), the population times to extinction in the conservation units were usually longer than 200 years, whereas for medium-bodied (5 kg) and large-bodied (50 kg) species this time was considerably shorter, and only a few units would maintain viable populations for more than 100 years. These figures are consistent with the current status of mammalian conservation in Brazil, and hopefully the simulated scenarios can be integrated to patterns of human occupation and habitat loss in the biome, in order to furnish overall guidelines for biodiversity conservation.