ABSTRACT
Background: Malaria remains a public health challenge across several African and South‑East Asia Region countries, including India, despite making gains in malaria‑related morbidity and mortality. Poor climatic and socioeconomic factors are known to increase population vulnerability to malaria. However, there is scant literature from India exploring this link using large population‑based data. Objectives: This study aims to study the role of climatic and socioeconomic factors in determining population vulnerability to malaria in India. Materials and Methods: We used logistic regression models on a nationally representative sample of 91,207 households, obtained from the National Sample Survey Organization (69th round), to study the determinants of household vulnerability. Results: Households that resided in high (odds ratio [OR]: 1.876, P < 0.01) and moderately high (OR: 3.427, P < 0.01), compared to low climatically vulnerable states were at greater odds of suffering from malaria. Among households that faced the problem of mosquitoes/flies compared to the reference group, the urban households were at higher risk of suffering from malaria (OR: 8.318, P < 0.01) compared to rural households (OR: 2.951, P < 0.01). Households from the lower income quintiles, caste, poor physical condition of their houses, poor garbage management, and water stagnation around the source of drinking water, strongly predicted malaria vulnerability. Conclusion: Household’s vulnerability to malaria differed according to state climatic vulnerability level and socioeconomic factors. More efforts by integrating local endemicity, epidemiological, and entomological information about malaria transmission must be considered while designing malaria mitigation strategies for better prevention and treatment outcomes.
ABSTRACT
Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region's relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come...
As mudanças climáticas exacerbarão, nas próximas décadas, a vulnerabilidade de populações, lugares e pessoas ao redor do mundo, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento. Este artigo investiga cenários hipotéticos futuros de vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas para os próximos 30 anos, em 66 microrregiões do Estado de Minas Gerais. Com base no Índice de Alkire e Foster, são integradas as dimensões simuladas e projetadas de vulnerabilidade populacional em um indicador multidimensional, o qual mostra como cenários de mudanças de temperatura afetariam a vulnerabilidade relativa de cada região no futuro. Os resultados sugerem que as dimensões econômica e de saúde são as maiores contribuintes para o aumento da vulnerabilidade relacionada às alterações na temperatura média, com as regiões mais pobres e voltadas ao agronegócio constituindo as mais afetadas em cenários futuros...
En las próximas décadas, el cambio climático exacerbará la vulnerabilidad de las poblaciones alrededor del mundo, especialmente en los países en desarrollo. En este artículo se investigan escenarios hipotéticos futuros de vulnerabilidad frente al cambio climático para los próximos 30 años en 66 microrregiones del estado de Minas Gerais. Sobre la base del Índice de Alkire y Foster, se integran en un indicador multidimensional las dimensiones simuladas y proyectadas de vulnerabilidad poblacional, mostrando cómo los escenarios de cambios de temperatura afectarían la vulnerabilidad relativa de cada región en el futuro. Los resultados sugieren que las dimensiones económica y de salud son las que más contribuyen en el aumento de la vulnerabilidad relacionada con las alteraciones de la temperatura media, y que las regiones más pobres y volcadas al agronegocio constituirán las más afectadas en estos escenarios futuros...