Predictibilidad en el diagnóstico utilizando Watson de IBM / Predictability in diagnostics using IBM Watson / Previsibilidade em diagnósticos usando IBM Watson

El presente estudio trata sobre una revisión documental relacionada con la predictibilidad en el diagnóstico utilizando Watson de IBM, el cual tiene como objetivo principal conocer el nivel de predictibilidad en el diagnóstico con Watson de IMB se ha utilizado un diseño no experimental de corte cualitativo donde las técnicas de recolección de datos han sido la revisión documental y el análisis de datos provenientes de estudios realizados por expertos que validan el uso de este tipo de tecnología, de acuerdo a los documentos consultados y en función de la opinión de los expertos se puede referir que la hipótesis planteada "el conocer el nivel de predictibilidad en el diagnóstico utilizando Watson de IMB contribuye a su implementación en el diagnóstico de enfermedades de orden oncológico" se cumple y como parte de algunas de las conclusiones las cuales refiere que el uso de este tipo de tecnología aporta a la prontitud en la generación de diagnósticos más certeros y con un nivel de predictibilidad media ­ alta, al igual que es una oportunidad para el trabajo colaborativo entre profesionales de la salud y representa la necesidad imperante de actualizar sus conocimientos para proporcionar datos de calidad que faciliten una mayor predictibilidad del diagnóstico

The present study deals with a documentary review related to the predictability in the diagnosis using IBM Watson, which has as its main objective to know the level of predictability in the diagnosis with IBM Watson. a qualitative non-experimental design has been used where the data collection techniques have been the documentary review and the analysis of data from studies conducted by experts who validate the use of this type of technology, according to the documents consulted and based on the opinion of the experts, it can be stated that the hypothesis knowing the level of predictability in the diagnosis with Watson IMB contributes to its implementation in the diagnosis of oncological diseases is fulfilled and as part of some of the conclusions it is stated that the use of this type of technology contributes to the promptness in the generation of more accurate diagnoses and with a medium-high level of predictability, It is also an opportunity for collaborative work among health professionals and represents the imperative need to update their knowledge in order to provide quality data that facilitate greater diagnostic predictability

O presente estudo trata de uma revisão documental relacionada à previsibilidade no diagnóstico com o Watson da IBM, cujo objetivo principal é conhecer o nível de previsibilidade no diagnóstico com o Watson do IMB. Utilizou-se um desenho qualitativo não experimental onde foi utilizado. as técnicas de coleta de dados foram a revisão documental e a análise de dados de estudos realizados por especialistas que validam o uso desse tipo de tecnologia, de acordo com os documentos consultados e com base na opinião dos especialistas, pode-se referir que o hipótese levantada conhecer o nível de previsibilidade no diagnóstico com o Watson do IMB contribui para sua implementação no diagnóstico de doenças oncológicas é atendida e faz parte de algumas das conclusões que referem que o uso deste tipo de tecnologia contribui para a prontidão na geração de diagnósticos mais precisos e com um nível de pré ditabilidade média-alta, pois é uma oportunidade de trabalho colaborativo entre os profissionais de saúde e representa a necessidade predominante de atualização de conhecimentos para fornecer dados de qualidade que possibilitem maior previsibilidade do diagnóstico.

Predictability of matrix cutting in femtosecond laser micro-incision matrix lens extraction / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

@#AIM: To compare the difference between the actual cutting amount and the preoperative predicted amount of corneal stroma after the small incision lenticule extraction(SMILE), and evaluate the predictability and accuracy of SMILE for corneal stroma. <p>METHODS: Prospective study. A total of 113 myopic patients(220 eyes)who had taken SMILE in the Affiliated Hospital of Yunnan University were selected, and routine examinations were carried out before and 1,3mo after operation, including visual acuity, non-contact tonometer(NCT), spherical equivalents(SE), mean corneal curvature, spherical coefficient of anterior corneal surface and Pentacam anterior segment analysis. All the 102 eyes in the research objects were randomly selected to measure the central corneal thickness(CCT)with the A-supersonic cornea thickness gauge before and 3mo after operation. The actual cutting amount after operation is the difference between the thickness of the thinnest spot of the cornea before and after operation, and the error amount is the difference between the predicted cutting amount before operation and the actual cutting amount after operation. The cutting error amount was observed and its correlation with physiological parameters before operation was analyzed. <p>RESULTS: SMILE had a good performance and the corneal morphology and visual acuity were relatively stable 1 and 3mo after operation. The consistency was good between the data measured by the A-supersonic cornea thickness gauge and the data of the thinnest spot of the cornea in the Pentacam anterior segment analysis, where the difference had no statistical significance(<i>t</i>= -1.877, <i>P</i>=0.063). The difference between the predicted cutting amount before operation(101.36±18.91)μm, and the actual cutting amount 1mo after operation(88.89±18.69)μm and 3mo after operation(84.95±18.64)μm(<i>F</i>=334.65, <i>P</i><0.01)had statistical significance; There was statistical difference between the cutting amount 1 and 3mo after operation, and the predicted errors before operation \〖(12.59±9.78)μm and(16.50±9.21)μm\〗. The cutting amount errors were only correlated with the preoperative equivalent diopter(<i>r</i>=0.299, <i>P</i><0.01)and(<i>r</i>=0.305, <i>P</i><0.01). The equivalent diopter at 1 and 3mo after operation was correlated with the cutting amount error at the same time(<i>r</i>=-0.275, <i>P</i><0.01)(<i>r</i>= -0.306, <i>P</i><0.01). With the increase of the cutting amount error, the postoperative spherical equivalent shifted to negative.<p>CONCLUSION: The actual cutting amount of corneal stroma after SMILE is smaller than the predicted preoperative cutting amount, and the predicted cutting amount error increases with the increase of preoperative diopter. As the cutting amount error increases, postoperative diopter gradually shifted to negative. The error, however, does not influence the target's visual acuity in the early postoperative period.

Effect of sowing season on soybean performance / Efeito da época de semeadura no desempenho da soja

The soybean presents great economic expression and high impact in the Brazilian agribusiness. The productive potential of a cultivar is expressed according to the genetic constitution and the environment. The sowing time exerts influence on the agronomic traits of the soybean, impacting the yield of grains. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of the sowing season on the productive potential and the agronomic traits of soybean. The work was conducted at the Capim Branco experimental farm, belonging to the Federal University of Uberlândia. Twelve cultivars (UFUS 6901, UFUS 7415, BRSMG 68, TMG 801, TMG 7062 IPRO, TMG 2158 IPRO, BRS 7270 IPRO, NA 5909 RR, NS 6909 RR, CD 2737 RR, P98Y30 RR e BRASMAX Desafio RR) and four sowing seasons (October 22, November 5, December 22, 2016 and January 5, 2017) were used. The experimental design was a randomized block design with four replicates. The evaluated characters were: number of days for flowering and maturity, plant height at maturity, insertion height for the first pod, number of nodes at maturity, total number of pods, number of tainted pods and productivity. The sowing carried out in October and November contributed to obtain a larger number of nodes and a greater height of plants at maturity, which are agronomic traits favorable to higher productivity. Sowing delay seriously affected soybean yield and in the Uberlândia MG region the ideal sowing time was October 22, before the beginning of November. In the late sowing in December and January, the cultivars that had their productions less affected were the conventional cultivars BRSMG 68 and TMG 801.

A soja apresenta grande expressão econômica e alto impacto no agronegócio brasileiro. O potencial produtivo de uma cultivar é expresso de acordo com a constituição genética e o ambiente. A época de semeadura exerce influência sobre os caracteres agronômicos da soja, impactando no rendimento de grãos. O objetivo deste estudo, avaliar a influência da época de semeadura sobre o potencial produtivo e caracteres agronômicos de soja. O trabalho foi conduzido na Fazenda experimental Capim Branco, pertencente à Universidade Federal de Uberlândia. Foram utilizadas 12 cultivares (UFUS 6901, UFUS 7415, BRSMG 68, TMG 801, TMG 7062 IPRO, TMG 2158 IPRO, BRS 7270 IPRO, NA 5909 RR, NS 6909 RR, CD 2737 RR, P98Y30 RR e BRASMAX Desafio RR) e quatro épocas de semeadura (22 de outubro, 05 de novembro, 22 de dezembro de 2016 e 05 de janeiro de 2017). Adotou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos casualizados com quatro repetições. Os caracteres avaliados foram: número de dias para o florescimento e maturidade, altura da planta na maturidade, número de nós na maturidade, altura de inserção da primeira vagem, número total de vagens, número de vagens chochas e produtividade. As semeaduras realizadas em outubro e novembro contribuíram para a obtenção de maior número de nós e maior altura de plantas na maturidade, que são caracteres agronômicos favoráveis à maiores produtividades. O atraso na semeadura afetou seriamente a produção de soja na região de Uberlândia MG e a época de semeadura ideal foi em 22 de outubro, antes do início de novembro. Nas semeaduras tardias dezembro e janeiro, as cultivares que tiveram suas produtividades menos afetadas foram as cultivares convencionais BRSMG 68 e TMG 801.

Evaluation of a replanted finger and measuring its perfusion changes to predict its viability by laser speckle contrast imaging

Background:This research aims to monitor the microcirculation of the replanted finger, which was entirely severed by using laser speckle contrast imaging(LSCI)for early detection and revision of vascular compromise for successful finger replantation. Methods:These six months of research was taken for a survey of 40 cases of replanted fingers of patients of distinct ages and sex. Scrutinizing was done postoperatively by LSCI, every hourly for seven days, to assess changes in blood perfusion both in replanted fingers and healthy ones and analyzed graphically.Results:Initially, from postoperative d=0 to d=2, the perfusion value was at baseline, which ranged 40±15 perfusion unit (PU), showing a wave-like curve, then gradually increased up to 350±50 PU or above in case of those which survived successfully, showing continuous peak slope. However, a gradual drop in perfusion, <35 PU from d=2 or d=3, was seen in those despite undergoing heparinized finger pin-prick bleeding therapy and failed to thrive, showing a downslope curve. Whereas some were under meticulous observation, which flourished lately. Concurrently, a comparison was made with the healthy fingers’ of the same patient, ranging from 200±50 to as high as 400±50 or above. Clinical correlation, as well as perfusion readings of LCSI, were done simultaneously.Conclusions:LSCI provides sensitive and reproducible finger microcirculation measurements and is reliable in predicting reductions in blood perfusion induced by venous or arterial occlusion. It is, therefore, an informative device to detect microvascular compromise during and after replantation surgery

A retrospective study of serious adverse drug reactions and associated risk factors in a tertiary care hospital

Background: Serious adverse drug reactions (ADRs) cause physical, psychological and economic harm to patients and society. This study was undertaken to understand serious ADRs in a tertiary care hospital and risk factors associated with it.Methods: The serious adverse reactions that occurred over a one-year period were assessed. The serious adverse drug reactions, action taken, outcome, predictability, suspect drug, causality, patient demographics and risk factors for the reaction was collected. Chi-square test was applied for observing relationships of predisposing factors for serious ADRs.Results: Out of a total of 984 reported adverse drug reactions, 94 (9.55%) were serious. Hematological disorders (41.05%) were the common serious ADRs followed by electrolyte disturbances (18.94%). Anticancer agents were the suspect drugs for majority of serious ADRs. Serious ADRs contributed to 39 (0.05%) admissions in the hospital. Recovery occurred in 97.87% of the patients. The causality was possible in 91.48% (n=86) and probable in 8.51% (n=8) of the serious adverse drug reactions. Males, patients even with a single concomitant disease and those with more than 2 concomitant medications were at increased risk (p<0.05) for developing serious ADRs.Conclusions: Serious ADRs are a significant problem in health care. Measures should be taken to detect and treat them at the earliest to reduce suffering of the patient.

Adaptability and stability of soybean cultivars in four sowing seasons / Adaptabilidade e estabilidade de cultivares de soja em quatro épocas de semeadura

In recent decades, the expansion of soybean production in Brazil has been observed. This advance was motivated by the search of environments with better cultivation conditions, as well as the development of genotypes with wide adaptation. The diversity of "environments" hinders the process of selection and recommendation of cultivars, since the productive potential of a cultivar is given as a function of the sum of the genotype effect, the environment and the interaction between the latter two (G x E). In the case of this G x E interaction, regional studies are necessary in order to detail the differential behavior of the cultivars. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the genotype interaction by environments, adaptability and phenotypic stability for grain yield, of fifteen soybean cultivars, in four sowing seasons, in order to identify cultivars that combine high productive potential, predictability of behavior and adaptation to the edaphoclimatic conditions of Uberlândia-MG. The trials were conducted at the Experimental Farm Capim Branco, in Uberlândia-MG. Fifteen soybean cultivars were evaluated in four sowing seasons (October 23, 2016, November 19, 2016, December 10, 2016 and January 14, 2017), in relation to grain yield. The experimental design was of randomized complete blocks, with three replications, in each season. Data were submitted to individual and joint analyzes. The G x E interaction was decomposed by the method proposed by Cruz andCastoldi (1991). The differential behavior of the genotypes was detailed by the adaptability and phenotypic stability by the methods of Eberhart and Russell (1966), Lin and Binns (1988) modified by Carneiro (1998), AMMI and Centroid. By the analysis of joint variance, it was observed the existence of the cultivar interaction by sowing times (C x E), for the grain yield trait, at the 5 % probability level by the F test. The C x E was predominantly complex in nature. The cultivar CD 2737 RR presented satisfactory results for the four sowing seasons in Uberlândia-MG, with high grain yield and predictability of behavior, by the evaluated methods. The cultivar NS 6909 IPRO was classified into favorable environments by the methods of Eberhart and Russell (1966) and Lin and Binns (1988) modified by Carneiro (1998). Considering Lin and Binns (1988) modified by Carneiro (1998) and Centroid the cultivar that is also classified for this cultivation condition is UFUS 8301. By AMMI, UFUS 7415, CD 2737 RR and UFUS Milionária are considered stable and adaptable

Nas últimas décadas, observou-se a expansão da produção agrícola de soja no Brasil. Esse avanço foi motivado pela busca de ambientes com melhores condições de cultivo, bem como o desenvolvimento de genótipos com ampla adaptação. A diversidade de "ambientes" dificulta o processo deseleção e recomendação de cultivares, pois o potencial produtivo de uma cultivar é dado em função da somatória do efeito genotípico, do ambiente e da interação entre ambos (G x A). Caso haja essa interação G x A, fazem-se necessários estudos regionalizados a fim de pormenorizar o comportamento diferencial das cultivares. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a interação genótipos por ambientes, adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica para produtividade de grãos de 15 cultivares de soja, em quatro épocas de semeadura, de modo a identificar cultivares que aliam alto potencial produtivo, previsibilidade de comportamento e adaptação às condições edafoclimáticas de Uberlândia-MG. Os ensaios foram conduzidos na Fazenda Experimental Capim Branco, em Uberlândia-MG. Foram avaliadas 15 cultivares de soja, em quatro épocas de semeadura (23 de outubro de 2016, 19 de novembro de 2016, 10 de dezembro de 2016 e 14 de janeiro de 2017), quanto a produtividade de grãos. O delineamento experimental foi de blocos completos casualizados, com três repetições, em cada época. Os dados obtidos foram submetidos a análises individuais e conjunta. A interação G x A foi decomposta pelo método proposto por Cruz e Castoldi (1991). O comportamento diferencial dos genótipos foi pormenorizado pela adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica dos métodos de Eberhart e Russell (1966), Lin e Binns (1988) modificado por Carneiro (1998), AMMI e Centróide. Por meio da análise de variância conjunta observou-se a existência da interação cultivares por épocas de semeadura (C x E), para o caráter produtividade de grãos, ao nível de 5 % de probabilidade pelo teste F. Quanto a natureza C x E foi predominante complexa. A cultivar CD 2737 RR apresentou resultados satisfatórios para as quatro épocas de semeadura em Uberlândia-MG, com alta produtividade de grãos e previsibilidade de comportamento, pelos métodos avaliados. A cultivar NS 6909 IPRO foi classificada para ambientes favoráveis, pelos métodos de Eberhart e Russell (1966) e Lin e Binns (1988), modificado por Carneiro (1998). Considerando Lin e Binns (1988), modificado por Carneiro (1998), e Centróide a cultivar que é classificada também para essa condição de cultivo é UFUS 8301. Pelo o AMMI, UFUS 7415, CD 2737 RR e UFUS Milionária são tidas como estáveis e de ampla adaptação.

An analysis of seriousness, predictability and preventability of adverse drug reactions reported at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Kerala, India: a retrospective observational record based study

Background: Adverse drug reactions (ADR) are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in all health care systems. Hospital based ADR monitoring and reporting programmes can throw some light upon the profile of ADRs and ways to prevent them, facilitating rational drug use. An attempt has been made in this study to analyse the seriousness, predictability, preventability, severity and outcome of ADRs occurring in a tertiary care hospital.Methods: This was a retrospective observational study based on the data collected from ADRs reported to an approved ADR monitoring centre (AMC). Data collected was evaluated for seriousness, predictability, preventability, severity and outcome using appropriate scales. Simple descriptive statistics was used for analysis.Results: The total number of ADRs reported was 300. Among this 39% reactions were serious. The commonest reason for considering as serious reaction was prolongation of hospitalization. The overall predictability was 40.4%. Total preventability was found to be 18.3%. Assessment of severity showed 55.3 %, 41.7%, 3% reactions in mild, moderate and severe grades respectively. 64.3% patients had recovered from the reaction and 30% were recovering at the time of reporting ADR. Only 0.3% ADRs caused death.Conclusions: Authors hope this study will foster the culture of reporting and analysing ADRs among health care professionals and students. The findings from the study can create awareness among health care professionals regarding the impact of ADRs on the treatment course.

Satisfacción con la vida, bienestar psicológico y social como predictores de la salud mental en ecuatorianos / Satisfaction with Life, Psychological and Social Well-being as Predictors of Mental Health in Ecuadorians

Resumen Se indaga sobre la predictibilidad de la Satisfacción con la vida y el Bienestar Psicológico y Social en la Salud Mental en una muestra de estudiantes universitarios del Ecuador a través de un análisis descriptivo de predicción, comparativo por sexo y universidad. Es un estudio de corte transversal en el que participaron 982 estudiantes de tres universidades de Cuenca y Ambato, en Ecuador. Se encontró que el bienestar subjetivo, psicológico y social predicen el 55.1% de explicación de la varianza de Salud Mental. Además, existen diferencias por género en la Satisfacción con la vida (t = -1.98; p < .05) y el Bienestar Social (t = -2.34; p < .05), en este último las mujeres puntúan más que los hombres. También hay diferencias por el tipo de universidad en la Satisfacción con la vida (t = -3.11; p < .01), el Bienestar Psicológico (t = -3.21; p < .01) y la Salud Mental (t = -2.22; p < .05) con mejores puntajes en la universidad cofinanciada. Con estos elementos, se concluye que los distintos indicadores del bienestar individual predicen considerablemente la salud mental.

Abstract The predictability of Satisfaction of the Life and the Psychological and Social well-being in Mental Health in a sample of university students from Ecuador is explored through a descriptive analysis of prediction, comparative by sex and university; and of cross section in which 982 students participated from three universities from Cuenca and Ambato in Ecuador. It was found that subjective, psychological and social well-being predict 55.1% of explination of the Mental Health variance. Further, there are differences by gender in Satisfaction with life (t = -1.98; p < .05) and Social Welfare (t = -2.34; p < .05) in which women score more than men; and by the type of university in the Satisfaction with the life (t = -3.11; p < .01), the Psychological Well-being (t = -3.21; p < .01) and the Mental Health (t = -2.22; p < .05) with better scores in the co-financed university. With these elements, it is concluded that the different indicators of individual well-being significantly predict mental health.

Comparison of corneal ablation depth predictability between small incision lenticule extraction and femtosecond laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis for myopia / 中华实验眼科杂志

Background Recently,small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) procedure is used to correct myopia.The clinical safety and efficiency of SMILE have been approved,but its predictability to corneal ablation depth is brought into focus.Objective This study was to compare the predictability of ablation depth in central cornea between SMILE and femtosecond laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) for myopia.Methods A nonrandomized controlled clinical study was performed.Two hundred and seventy eyes of 135 myopic patients who were going to receive corneal refractive surgery were included in Beijing Tongren Hospital from October 2015 to May 2016.SMILE and FS-LASIK were performed on 138 eyes of 69 patients and 132 eyes of 66 patients matched in demography respectively under the informed consent.Central corneal thickness was measured by RTVue FD-OCT before and 1 week after surgery.The refractive power,actual ablation depth (difference of central corneal thickness before and after surgery) and central corneal cutting error (difference between theoretically expected ablation depth and real ablation depth) were intergrouply compared,and the correlation of real ablation depth with theoretically expected ablation depth was assessed.Results No significant difference was found in spherical power,astigmatic power and spherical equivalent after surgery between SMILE group and FS-LASIK group (t =-1.826,-1.405,-1.420,all at P＞0.05).The actual ablation depth was (76.96± 15.27)μm in the SMILE group,which was significant lower than (96.76± 16.52) μm of theoretically expected ablation depth (t =-23.016,P ＜ 0.01);however,there was no significant difference in the FS-LASIK group between actual and expected ablation depth ([77.92 ± 18.69] μm versus [77.42± 15.60] μm) (t =-0.604,P =0.547).The central corneal cutting error was (20.55 ± 8.51) μm in the SMILE group and (7.17±5.97) μm in the FS-LASIK group,showing a significant difference between them (t=14.950,P＜0.01).The positive linear correlations were seen between actual and expected ablation depth in both SMILE group and FS-LASIK group (r=0.799,0.867,both at P＜0.01).The actual ablation depth was increased over expected ablation depth,with the regression equations of Y=3.892+0.749X in the SMILE group and Y=3.443 + 0.957X in the FS-LASIK group.Conclusions The actual corneal ablation depth is less than expected corneal ablation depth in SMILE procedure,while in FS-LASIK procedure,the actual corneal ablation depth appears to be consistent with the expected one,inferring a good predictability in corneal ablation depth in FS-LASIK surgery.

Early clinical outcomes of small incision lenticule extraction for different refractive myopia and astigmatism / 中华实验眼科杂志

Background Small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) is increasingly applied in the correction of myopia and astigmatism.However,the early clinical outcomes of SMILE for different refractive myopia and astigmatism is seldom reported.Objective This study was to investigate the safety,efficacy,predictability and early stability after SMILE in low,moderate and high myopia.Methods A series of cases-observational study was carried out.A total of 195 eyes of 108 myopic patients were enrolled in Tianjin Eye Hospital from May to December 2012 under the informed consent.The patients were divided into the low (≤-3.00 D),moderate (＞-3.00 to-6.00 D) and high myopia (＞-6.00 D) groups according to different diopters,with 57 eyes,76 eyes and 62 eyes,respectively.SMILE was performed on all the eyes.The uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA)(LogMAR),best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) (LogMAR),equivalent sphere (SE),intraocular pressure,anterior segment and corneal topography were examined before operation and 1 day,1 week,1 month and 3 months after operation to evaluate the effective index (postoperative UCVA/preoperative BCVA),safety index (postoperative BCVA/preoperative BCVA),predictability and early stability of SMILE.The linear regression analysis was used to analyze the relationships between the attempted refraction and the achieved refraction postoperative 3 months in three groups.Results The percentage of UCVA (LogMAR)＜0.1 was 100％,97.1％ and 92.8％ in the low,moderate and high myopia group,respectively in 3 months after SMILE.The postoperative BCVA of all the operated eyes reached preoperative one.The residual SE was (-0.07±0.16),(-0.05 ±0.20) and (-0.08±0.27)D in the low,moderate and high myopia group,respectively in 3 months after SMILE.The percentage of residual SE±0.5 D was 100％,98.7％ and 93.6％ in the low,moderate and high group,and that of SE±1.0 D was 100％ in all of the groups.The postoperative corrected SE was gradually increased with the raise of predicted SE in the low,moderate and high myopia groups (r=0.942,0.959,0.957,all at P＜0.001).Conclusions SMILE is safe,effective,predictable and stable for the correction of low,moderate and high myopia.The corneal wound healing was slightly slower in the low myopia group than that in the moderate and high group.A slight regression of myopic power appears in high myopia eyes 3 months after SMILE.

Interspecific social skills in a highly socialized Aguará Guazú (maned wolf, Chrysocyon brachyurus). A pilot-subject study

Some beliefs seem to be more resilient to change and extinction than others. This paper argues that some of the strong beliefs held by humans have deep biological roots in our evolutionary past, and the neuronal pathways and structures that support them can be found in other species. This paper describes four basic universal criteria present in persistent beliefs: intuitibility, predictability, reliability and utility (IPRU). The paper argues that the study of belief as a modern scientific discipline will require consideration of the evolutionary context through which the neural pathways associated with belief formation, maintenance and endorsement have emerged. We also suggest that the study of religious belief has discouraged the adoption of an overarching framework for understanding our belief system in all its breadth. Our approach incorporates evolution-driven cognitive and affective biases, attachment mechanisms and reward expectation. Rather than operating as genuinely adaptive phenomena associated with evolutionary advantage, we suggest that belief systems emerge as a by-product of evolutionary pressures

Há crenças que parecem ser mais resilientes a mudanças e extinção do que outras. Este artigo argumenta que algumas das crenças humanas mais fortes têm raízes biológicas profundas em nosso passado evolutivo, e que vias e estruturas nervosas que as suportam podem ser encontradas em outra espécie. Este trabalho descreve quatro critérios universais básicos nas crenças persistentes: ser intuitiva, ser previsível, ser confiável e ser utilizável (IPRU). O trabalho argumenta que o estudo de crença como uma disciplina moderna demandará considerações sobre o contexto evolutivo, através do qual emergiram vias neurais associadas à formação, manutenção e apoio à crença. Também é sugerido que o estudo da crença religiosa tem desencorajado a adoção de um contexto abrangente para a compreensão de nosso sistema de crença em toda a sua profundidade. Abordagem aqui utilizada incorpora viés cognitivo movido pela evolução assim como viés afetivo, mecanismos de fixação e expectativas de recompensa. Sugerimos que os sistemas de crença emergiram como subproduto de pressões evolutivas, ao invés de operar como um processo genuinamente adaptativo associado a vantagens evolutivas

The biology of resilient beliefs / A biologia das crenças resilientes

Some beliefs seem to be more resilient to change and extinction than others. This paper argues that some of the strong beliefs held by humans have deep biological roots in our evolutionary past, and the neuronal pathways and structures that support them can be found in other species. This paper describes four basic universal criteria present in persistent beliefs: intuitibility, predictability, reliability and utility (IPRU). The paper argues that the study of belief as a modern scientific discipline will require consideration of the evolutionary context through which the neural pathways associated with belief formation, maintenance and endorsement have emerged. We also suggest that the study of religious belief has discouraged the adoption of an overarching framework for understanding our belief system in all its breadth. Our approach incorporates evolution-driven cognitive and affective biases, attachment mechanisms and reward expectation. Rather than operating as genuinely adaptive phenomena associated with evolutionary advantage, we suggest that belief systems emerge as a by-product of evolutionary pressures

Há crenças que parecem ser mais resilientes a mudanças e extinção do que outras. Este artigo argumenta que algumas das crenças humanas mais fortes têm raízes biológicas profundas em nosso passado evolutivo, e que vias e estruturas nervosas que as suportam podem ser encontradas em outra espécie. Este trabalho descreve quatro critérios universais básicos nas crenças persistentes: ser intuitiva, ser previsível, ser confiável e ser utilizável (IPRU). O trabalho argumenta que o estudo de crença como uma disciplina moderna demandará considerações sobre o contexto evolutivo, através do qual emergiram vias neurais associadas à formação, manutenção e apoio à crença. Também é sugerido que o estudo da crença religiosa tem desencorajado a adoção de um contexto abrangente para a compreensão de nosso sistema de crença em toda a sua profundidade. Abordagem aqui utilizada incorpora viés cognitivo movido pela evolução assim como viés afetivo, mecanismos de fixação e expectativas de recompensa. Sugerimos que os sistemas de crença emergiram como subproduto de pressões evolutivas, ao invés de operar como um processo genuinamente adaptativo associado a vantagens evolutivas

An evaluation of the effectiveness and predictability of transpositional flap vs connective tissue graft for coverage of Miller's class-I and class-II facial marginal tissue recession lesions: A clinical study.

Background: There has been no study to date comparing the effectiveness and predictability of transpositional flap (TF) with that of the gold standard connective tissue graft (CTG) for root coverage. This study was performed during 2001-2002 at Government Dental College and Hospital, Mumbai India. Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness and predictability of TF vs CTG for coverage of Miller's class I and class II facial marginal tissue recession defects. Materials and Methods: Twenty cases fulfilling the selection criteria were identified and randomly allotted to two groups: group I (TF, 10 cases) and group II (CTG, 10 cases). Registered parameters included plaque index (PI), defect-specific plaque index (DPI), gingival index (GI), defect-specific gingival index (DGI), recession depth (RD), recession width (RW), probing depth (PD), attachment level (AL), width of keratinized tissue (KT), percentage defect coverage (DC), and percentage root coverage (RC). Results: For group I: preoperative PI, DPI, GI, DGI, RD, PD, KT, and RC were 0.38±0.14, 1.1±0.57, 0.02±0.02, 0.36±0.29, 4.45±2.0, 1.5±0.71, 1.45±1.30, and 68.57±14.36, respectively; the corresponding postoperative values were 0.38±0.11, 0.36±0.29, 0.01±0.01, 0.10±0.16, 3.2±2.44, 1.1±0.32, 2.65±1.03, and 77.40±17.23. For group II the preoperative PI, DPI, GI, DGI, RD, PD, KT, and RC were 0.77±0.5, 1.53±0.63, 0.12±0.18, 0.59±0.62, 4.95±1.59, 1.9±0.74, 0.50±1.08, and 65.05±11.22, respectively, and the corresponding postoperative values were 0.49±0.32, 0.8±0.50, 0.03±0.53, 0.03±0.10, 0.90±0.88, 1.2±0.42, 4.4±1.07, and 93.65±6.18, respectively. Conclusion: The TF technique for coverage of single tooth buccal recession defects of Miller's class I and class II types in mandibular anterior teeth was neither effective nor predictable in defect coverage and defect elimination.

Efeitos do controle de previsibilidade e da utilização de pistas simbólicas centrais na orientação temporal da atenção / Effects of predictability control and the use of symbolic central cues in temporal orienting of attention / Efectos del control de previsibilidad y de la utilización de pistas simbólicas centrales en la orientación teporal de la atención

A todo instante, ocorrem, no ambiente, estímulos com diferentes qualidades e graus de relevância que competem pela atenção do organismo e, caso selecionados, serão prioritariamente processados. Este trabalho foi planejado com três experimentos para analisar a dinâmica temporal da orientação da atenção. Eles aprofundam o conhecimento sobre os efeitos do controle de previsibilidade e da utilização de pistas simbólicas centrais na orientação temporal da atenção. Em cada experimento, o participante sentava-se em frente a um monitor acoplado a um computador, que gerava os estímulos e registrava o tempo de reação manual (TR) a alvos visuais. Como resultado, observou-se um direcionamento temporal da atenção, seja por meio do controle da previsibilidade, seja por meio de pistas simbólicas centrais. Pode-se dizer, assim, que a probabilidade temporal de ocorrência dos estímulos permitiu uma preparação do indivíduo para responder, o que sugere que houve uma alocação prévia dos recursos atencionais para os intervalos indicados de forma temporal, gerando, consequentemente, TR menores.

All the time the environment presents stimuli of different types and degrees of relevance that compete for the attention of the organism and, when selected, they take priority for being processed. This research is composed of three experiments designed to analyze the temporal dynamics of attention orienting. They deepen the knowledge about the effects of predictability control and the use of central symbolic cues in temporal orienting of attention. In each experiment the participant had to sit in front of a monitor plugged to a computer that generates stimuli and registers manual reaction time (RT) to visual targets. As a result we observed a temporal direction of attention, either due to the control of predictability or through central symbolic cues. Therefore we can say that the temporal probability of stimuli occurrence has allowed a preparation of the individual to respond. This suggests that there was a previous allocation of attentional resources to time-determined intervals which generated lower RTs.

En cualquier momento se producen, en el entorno, estímulos con diferentes calidades y grados de relevancia, que compiten por la atención del organismo y, si resulta seleccionado, será procesado como una prioridad. Este trabajo se planificó con tres experimentos para examinar la dinámica de la orientación de la atención. Que profundizaran el conocimiento sobre los efectos de la previsibilidad y el control de la utilización de señales simbólicas centrales en la orientación temporal de la atención. En cada experimento, los participantes se sentaron en frente de un monitor conectado a un equipo que genera los estímulos y se registra el tiempo de reacción manual (TR) a los objetivos visuales. Como resultado de ello hubo una dirección temporal de la atención, ya sea a través del control o la previsibilidad por el centro de señales simbólicas. Se puede decir por tanto que la probabilidad de ocurrencia temporal de estímulos permiten la preparación de un individuo para responder, lo que sugiere que hubo una asignación previa de recursos de atención a los intervalos indicados en el tiempo, causando, en consecuencia, menor TR.

Acerca de la racionalidad y la irracionalidad de nuestras decisiones / About rationality and irrationality of our decisions

Tal como sugiere su nombre, este texto postula que el comportamiento humano es fundamentalmente irracional, esto es, está gobernado por aspectos emocionales difíciles de explicar de acuerdo a explicaciones lógicas. Esta "irracionalidad" esta, no obstante lejos de ser aleatoria y estrictamente personal, sino que corresponde a un patrón regular con ciertas leyes y principios. Más aún, tal irracionalidad comprende distintos ámbitos del comportamiento, desde los procesos detrás de la compra de bienes muebles o inmuebles a los que definen las acciones éticas de las personas.

As its title suggests, this book postulates that human behavior is fundamentally irrational, that is, driven by emotional factors that are difficult to understand for logical mind. This irrationality is, nonetheless, neither random or subjective, but to some extent predictable and rather universal. Furthermore, such irrational reasoning can be found at different levels , from the way in which people acquire small or large-scale goods (a TV set or a house respectively), to the way in which individuals make ethical decisions.

Imprevisibilidade e avaliação psicológica no trânsito da cidade contemporânea / Unpredictability and psychological evaluation in contemporary city traffic

Visando contribuir para sistematizar reflexões sobre as implicações do transitar na Metrópole, iremos, neste artigo, discutir aspectos relacionados a previsibilidade e imprevisibilidade na área do trânsito, bem como os limites da avaliação psicológica, neste quadro. Apontamos que o morador da metrópole experimenta, no seu transitar, uma realidade perpassada por algo que escapa, em grande parte, ao seu controle. Mostramos o entrelaçamento, neste contexto, de conflitos com os quais nos defrontamos na circulação urbana, muitos provenientes de nossos modos de relacionamento na cidade contemporânea. Ao considerar que viver e circular, efetivamente, estão associados a uma certa imprevisibilidade, constatamos, por outro lado, que a avaliação psicológica encontra muitos limites frente ao agir cotidiano das pessoas, e envolve aspectos bem mais amplos, que fogem ao âmbito restrito da avaliação. Mostramos que a discussão destas questões tem que ser colocada em uma dimensão mais abrangente, propiciando assim, abertura de novos espaços de reflexão para os profissionais que trabalham na área da psicologia, vinculada ao trânsito. Ressaltamos que cabe a estes profissionais, levarem em consideração, de maneira mais efetiva, durante suas avaliações, aspectos associados ao convívio social, muito presentes na forma de organização do trânsito. Concluímos que a avaliação psicológica deve ser pensada, de modo não tão restrito ao que é apreendido pela mediação dos testes, mas, contrariamente, de modo mais abrangente, podendo levar os profissionais envolvidos a uma implicação mais efetiva com a circulação na cidade contemporânea.

With an objective to contribute to systematize reflections about the implications of traffic in the capital, we will discuss, in the present article, topics related to predictability and unpredictability concerning the field of traffic, as well as regarding the limits of psychological evaluation in this context. We called attention to the dweller's capital experiment, in your traffic, a reality crossed with something that escape, in general, his control. We showed the interlacement, in this context, of conflicts which we faced in the urban circulation, many came from our way of establish relationships in the modern capital. Considering that to live and to drive are effective related with a certain unpredictability, we found, on the other hand, that the psychology evaluation face many limits with the everyday people actions, it evolve wider aspects, that escape to the restrict field of the evaluation. We showed that the discussion of these questions needs to be put in a broad dimension, providing and opening new reflection spaces to the professionals that work in the psychology field, related with traffic. We emphasized that this professionals ought to consider, in more effective way, during their psychological evaluations, aspects related with the social relationships, that are included in the traffic organization. We concluded that the psychological evaluation, ought not to be restricting on the test results, but on the opposite, in a more ample vision that can bring the professionals evolved in a more effective implication with the modern city drive.

Para contribuir para el desarrollo de una reflexión sistemática sobre las consecuencias de tránsito en la metrópoli, discutiremos, en este artículo, aspectos de la previsibilidad y la imprevisibilidad en el tránsito, así como los límites de la evaluación psicológica en este marco. Se señala que los habitantes de la ciudad hacen la experiencia, en la circulación urbana de una realidad impregnada de algo que no pueden controlar. Se muestra, en este contexto, el entrelazamiento de conflictos humanos e sociales con los cuales nos enfrentamos en el tráfico urbano. Cuando se considera que vivir y circular, en efecto, están asociados con una cierta imprevisibilidad, observamos, las muchas limitaciones de la evaluación psicológica frente a la acción cotidiana de la gente, que tiene implicaciones mucho más amplias, que van más allá del limitado alcance de la evaluación. Se demuestra que la discusión de estos temas tienen que estar ubicada en una escala más amplia, proporcionando así nuevas oportunidades para la reflexión para los profesionales que trabajan en el campo de la psicología, vinculados al tránsito. Hacemos hincapié en que corresponde a estos profesionales, considerar, en sus evaluaciones, los aspectos relacionados con la vida social, muy presentes en la forma de organizar el tráfico. Se concluye que la evaluación psicológica debe ser diseñado a fin de no limitarse a lo que se percibe a través de la mediación de las pruebas, pero, por el contrario, más en general, lo que pude llevar los profesionales a una participación más efectiva con el movimiento de la circulación en la ciudad contemporánea.

En vue de contribuer à l'établissement d'une réflexion systématique sur les implications de la circulation dans la métropole, nous discuterons, dans cet article, des aspects de la prévisibilité et l'imprévisibilité dans le trafic urbain, ainsi que les limites de l'évaluation psychologique dans ce cadre. Nous indiquons qu'au cours de la traversée de son parcours, l'habitant de la grande ville expérimente une réalité qui échappe en grande partie à son contrôle. Nous montrons l'enchevêtrement de conflits auquels nous sommes confrontés dans la circulation urbaine. Considérant que vivre et circuler se trouvent associés à une certaine imprévisibilité, nous constatons, par ailleurs, les limites de l'évaluation psychologique face à l'agir quotidien des personnes dans la métropole, qui met en jeu des questions au-delà de sa portée habituelle. Nous montrons que la discussion de ces questions doit être placée à un autre niveau afin d'offrir un champ nouveau de réflexion aux professionnels travaillant dans le domaine de la psychologie de la circulation. Nous soulignons qu'il leur revient de prendre en considération, dans leurs analyses, les rapports sociaux sous-jacents aux modes d'organisation de la circulation. Nous concluons que l'évaluation psychologique doit être conçue de manière plus globale, afin que les professionnels concernés puisse effectivement prendre en compte le mouvement de la circulation dans la ville contemporaine.

Clinical predictability of the waist-to-hip ratio in assessing the risk factors of cardiovascular disease among public servants in Shijiazhuang city / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To assess the clinical predictability of waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) among female civil servants who had experienced risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Methods Data was gathered from 4153 female civil servants aged 21-91 y working at universities who were enrolled in health screening centre at the Second Hospital Attached to Hebei Medical University, in 2006. WHR quartiles were determined as: <0.80, 0.80-<0.84, 0.84-<0.90 and ≥0.90. Subjects were placed into high-risk categories for cardiovascular disease on the basis of national health reference on range norms of protocol including hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia. Results Participants had an increased likelihood of hypertension (systolic blood pressure) , dyslipidemia (elevated triacylglycerol and descending HDL-C) and diabetes mellitus at WHR≥0.84. All aforementioned variables had a significant odds ratio at WHR ≥0.84. This trend was further persisted after adjustment had been made on smoking, age, and BMI. Descended HDL-C was observed at the 0.80≤WHR<0.84 when compared with WHR< 0.80. Conclusion These data indicated an upward shift in the critical threshold for WHR to ≥0.84. Above which point, there was an elevation of risk factors on cardiovascular diseases among all the female civil servants. The trend persisted regardless of smoking, BMI <or ≥28 and at what age group, among the civil servants population.

Refractive Predictability of Partial Coherence Interferometry and Factors that can Affect It

PURPOSE: To evaluate the refractive predictability of a partial coherence interferometry (PCI) biometry device (IOL Master(R)) for cataract surgery and to investigate factors that may affect it. METHODS: Retrospective review of 209 eyes from 151 patients that had undergone preoperative PCI biometry and an uneventful phacoemulsification cataract surgery with posterior chamber intraocular lens (IOL) implantation was conducted. Prediction error defined as the intended refraction minus the postoperative refraction in spherical equivalent (SE) and the absolute error were analyzed according to IOL calculation formulas, patient characteristics, preoperative visual acuity (VA) and refraction, posterior subcapsular cataract (PSC), signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and axial length (AL). RESULTS: The overall refractive predictability of the PCI device was good. Generally, the SRK/T formula performed better than the SRK-II formula. Refractive predictability was slightly worse in eyes with > or =+2.0 diopters (D) of preoperative SE (with both SRK-II and SRK/T) and in eyes with an AL or =+2.0D was related to a significantly greater hyperopic shift in postoperative refraction. With proper verification of measured data and a suitable IOL calculation formula, good refractive predictability is expected from PCI biometry regardless of patient characteristics, preoperative VA, SNR, PSC, and AL.

The Potential Role of the Retinal Acuity Meter For Predicting Visual Outcome after Cataract Surgery

PURPOSE: To investigate the accuracy and usefulness of the retinal acuity meter (RAM) in predicting visual acuity after cataract surgery. METHODS: We randomly selected 47 eyes from 43 patients who underwent cataract surgery in our clinic. Preoperative BCVA and 3 month postoperative BCVA were measured by the Snellen chart, and we recorded the preoperative visual acuity by RAM. We also grouped the patients according to diabetic retinopathy and preoperative BCVA 20/100. By comparing the expected visual acuity by RAM with actual postoperative BCVA values, we analyzed the accuracy of the RAM's predictability after surgery. The cataract types and macular disease were taken under consideration when analyzing our results. RESULTS: Of the 47 eyes in our study, the postoperative Snellen visual acuity was predictable within three lines (90.9%) in 11 eyes with diabetic retinopathy and without macular disease. In the 36 eyes without diabetic retinopathy, the postoperative Snellen visual acuity was predictable within three lines (91.6%) of the cases. In both groups, the preoperative RAM acuity and postoperative BCVA were significantly correlated (R2=0.692, R2=0.812, p<0.05). In 41 eyes with preoperative BCVA 20/100 or more, the postoperative Snellen visual acuity was highly predictable in 95.1% (R2=0.763, p<0.05). However, in 6 eyes with preoperative BCVA levels less than 20/100, the postoperative Snellen visual acuity was not predictable (66.6 %). In the patients with both nucleosclerosis and posterior subcapsular opacity and in the patients with additional cortical opacity, the postoperative BCVA differed from the preoperative RAM acuity by more than three lines on the Snellen chart. CONCLUSIONS: RAM is useful in predicting postoperative visual acuity in cataract patients, but may be unreliable in the patients with combined cataract forms or with preoperative BCVAs less than 20/100.

The comparison of Conventional Pap smears with Liquid Pap smears (PrepStain(TM) System) in Cervical Pap smears / 대한산부인과학회지

OBJECTIVE: To Compare the conventional Pap smear with the Liquid Pap smear in screening of cervical cancer and to evaluate the correspondence of their biopsy results. METHODS: From August 1, 2003 to July 31, 2005, the conventional Pap smears and the Liquid Pap smears were performed in 12,757 and 6,870 women, respectively. The results of 252 conventional Pap smear and 227 Liquid Pap smear were confirmed by colposcopic biopsy and evaluated for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictability, negative predictability and false negativity. RESULTS: In Liquid Pap smear, there were higher proportions of ASCUS, LSIL, HSIL and CIS. And the ratio of ASCUS/LSIL were 3.32 and 3.04 in conventional Pap smear and Liquid Pap smear respectively. The conventional Pap smear showed sensitivity 71.8%, specificity 93.9%, positive predictability 82.3%, negative predictability 89.4%, and false negativity 28.2%, while the Liquid Pap smear showed higher sensitivity (72.6%), specificity (96.1%), and positive predictability (89.8%), and lower negative predictability (88.0%), and false negativity (27.4%). The positive predictability was significantly higher (95% C.I.: 1.3-13.7). CONCLUSION: The positive predictability was significantly improved in the Liquid Pap smear. Therefore, the Liquid Pap smear is a more useful method in screening of cervical cancer.