Probability and trend of premature death of four major chronic diseases in Linyi City in 2013-2021 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the mortality rate and probability of premature death caused by four major noninfectious chronic diseases (NCDs)in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021, and to provide data support for scientific formulation of chronic disease prevention and control strategy. Methods The mortality data of major chronic diseases in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed. The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and premature death probability were calculated. The annual percent change (APC) was adopted to analyze the temporal trend of mortality and probability of premature death. Results The average annual crude mortality of four major NCDs was 538.98/100,000, and the age-standardized mortality was 387.3/100,000. The crude mortality rate increased from 517.37/100 000 in 2013 to 563.13/100 000 in 2021 (APC=0.89％, P=0.01). The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 410.19/100,000 to 364.92/100,000 (APC=-1.8％, P=0.01). The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of four major NCDs in males were higher than those in females (P<0.05). The average annual probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs was 13.37%. The probability of premature death decreased from 14.49％ in 2013 to 12.32％ in 2021（APC=-2.1％, P=0.00）. From 2013 to 2021, the probability of premature death from malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases in Linyi City dropped from 6.14%, 7.47%, and 1.21% to 5.52%, 6.46%, and 0.5%, respectively (APCs were -1.2%, -2.1%, and -11.3%, respectively, and P values were 0.04, 0.00, and 0.00, respectively). The probability of premature death from diabetes remained stable. The probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs in males was higher than that in females (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death of the four major NCDs in Linyi has showed a downward trend during 2013-2021. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of diabetes in the next step.

Spatial epidemiological characteristics of the mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai in 2010-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the spatial epidemiological characteristics of mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, and to provide reference for the formulation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevention and control strategies according to local conditions. Methods The death data of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were obtained from the local death surveillance system of Pudong New Area. Crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death caused by COPD in each subdistricts and towns of Pudong New Area were calculated. The geographical information system (GIS) was used to plot the spatial distribution maps of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease death. The trend surface analysis and the spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to analyze the spatial distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease death. Results The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by COPD among residents in Pudong New Area between 2010 and 2020 were 58.40/100,000, 22.35/100,000, and 0.26%, respectively. The results of trend surface analysis showed that the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by COPD gradually increased from north to south. In the east-west direction, the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death showed an upward trend from west to east. The global autocorrelation analysis suggested that there existed a positive spatial autocorrelation for the crude mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature death. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustering areas of COPD crude mortality, standardized mortality and premature mortality were all located in the rural areas of the southeast of Pudong New Area. Conclusion There are urban and rural differences in the mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among residents in Pudong New Area from 2010 to 2020. The residents living in rural southeast coast of Pudong New Area are more seriously affected by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and should be paid more attention.

Trend analysis of the death level and probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Jinshan District, Shanghai, 1980-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the trend of death level and the probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Jinshan District of Shanghai from 1980 to 2020, and to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures of COPD. Methods The death cases of COPD in Jinshan District from 1980 to 2020 were collected through the death cause registration information system. The crude mortality, standardized mortality, age group mortality, early death probability and annual change percentage in different periods were calculated. Results From 1980 to 2020, the crude mortality of COPD in Jinshan District was 154.38/100 000, and the standardized mortality was 82.66/100,000. In the past 41 years, the standardized mortality of COPD showed a downward trend in males and females (APC=-1.79%, -2.52%, P<0.001). In the same period, the mortality of COPD in subjects aged 30-69 years old and subjects aged 70 years old and above also decreased (APC=-8.79%, -4.79%, P<0.001), and the probability of premature death caused by COPD showed a downward trend in males and females (APC=-9.61%, -10.71%, P<0.001). Conclusion The mortality rate and the probability of premature death of COPD in Jinshan District have decreased in the past 41 years. However, COPD is still one of the major chronic diseases that pose a serious threat to the health of residents in Jinshan District. Comprehensive prevention and treatment measures should be taken to reduce the mortality and the probability of premature death of COPD.

Analysis of mortality and probability of premature death caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Shandong Province, 2015 / 中华预防医学杂志

Based on the data from Shandong Province death registration system in 2015, the mortality rate was adjusted by the results of underreporting rate investigation, and the probability of premature death of non-communicable diseases was calculated by life table method. A total of 728 287 deaths caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumor, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease, accounting for 85.83% of the total death in 2015. The death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and malignant tumor accounted for 50.90% and 25.69% respectively. The probability of premature death was 17.84%. The probability in males was higher than that in females (23.12% vs 12.25%). The highest probability of premature death in urban was cancer, but in rural was cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The probability increased from the East areas to the West. The highest probability reached at 21.50% in the Western underdeveloped areas, and the lowest probability was in Dongying City (14.84%) and Weihai City (14.94%) in the coastal areas.

Analysis on probability of premature death and cause eliminated life expectancy of major non-communicable diseases in Chongqing Municipality, 2016 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the premature death probability and cause-eliminated life expectancy of cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in Chongqing residents in 2016 so as to provide recommendation for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) prevention and control in Chongqing.@*Methods@#Death cases of Chongqing Municipality between January 1st and December 31st, 2016 were reported through death case registry system of national center for disease prevention and control. Death cases were sorted by international classification of disease (ICD-10). Mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, constituent ratio, premature death probability, life expectancy, and cause-eliminated life expectancy of four major NCDs were analyzed.@*Results@#A total of 218 004 death cases were reported in Chongqing, 2016, and the mortality rate was 731.73/100 000. Of them, a total of 179 637 death cases of the four major NCDs including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes were reported, accounting for 82.40% of all death cases. The mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs was 602.95/100 000 and 455.82/100 000, respectively. The premature death probability of four major NCDs was 15.96%, and males (25.39%) had a higher premature death probability than females (10.78%). The premature death probability of cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes were 6.01%, 8.32%, 2.05%, and 0.43%, respectively. Life expectancy would increase by 6.02, 3.19, 1.89, and 0.19 years, after eliminating cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes respectively.@*Conclusion@#The premature death probability of major NCDs was high in Chongqing, and males had a higher premature death probability than females did. Intervention and health management of the population should be conducted according to different gender-based risk factors to reduce the premature death probability.