Risk assessment models of radon-induced lung cancer and their preliminary application / 中华放射医学与防护杂志

Radon is the second largest environmental factor inducing lung cancer after smoking. In recent years, with the deeper epidemiological investigation on radon and lung cancer and the further improvement of its methodology, new progress has been made in the research on risk assessment models. This paper reviews the relative risk models of radon-induced lung cancer developed by several international academic organizations or research teams, and briefly introduces the background information on the models and the main factors considered. Based on the indoor radon concentrations in different decades in China, the relative risks of radon-induced lung cancer were estimated and analyzed, together with some suggestions given for more accurate evaluation of lung cancer induced by indoor radon in the future.

Evaluación y comparación del desempeño de cinco modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda / Evaluation and comparison of the performance of five prediction models of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure

Resumen Objetivo: Los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda pueden ser útiles para la toma de decisiones, situación que hace necesario evaluar la capacidad predictiva y de discriminación en la población colombiana. Método: Estudio de cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda. Se evaluó el desempeño de los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria ADHERE, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF y PROTECT, durante los años 2013 a 2015. Se realizó el cálculo de la puntuación para cada uno de los modelos y se determinó la capacidad de predicción y discriminación. Resultados: Se incluyeron 776 pacientes con una edad promedio de 71.5 años (desviación estándar: 14.3), el 56% hombres, con fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo del 39%. La mortalidad global fue del 6.1%. El área bajo la curva para ADHERE fue de 0.56 (intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC95%]: 0.49-0.64), para EHMRG de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.71], para GWTG-HF de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.70), para OPTIMIZE de 0.65 (IC95%: 0.56-0.74) y para PROTECT de 0.69 (IC95%: 0.60-0.77). Conclusiones: Los modelos de predicción de muerte intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda muestran pobre desempeño y baja capacidad de predicción y discriminación en población colombiana, lo cual sugiere el desarrollo de escalas de predicción de mortalidad en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda específicas para dicha población.

Abstract Objective: In-hospital mortality prediction models on acute heart failure can be beneficial for decision-making, a situation necessary to evaluate, our goal was to compare predictive and discriminatory capacity of Colombian population. Method: A retrospective cohort study in patients with acute heart failure was conducted. The following performance evaluation of in-hospital mortality prediction models were conducted from 2013 to 2015: ADHERE, EHMRG, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF and PROTECT. Data was calculated for each model, prediction and discriminatory capacity was evaluated. Results: A sample of 776 patients, 56% male, with an average age of 71.5 (standard deviation: 14.3) and with left ventricle ejection fraction rate of 39% was studied. Global mortality was of 6.1%. The area under curve for ADHERE was of 0.56 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.49-0.64), for EHMRG 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.71), for GWTG-HF 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.70), for OPTIMIZE 0.65 (95% CI: 0.56-0.74) and for PROTECT 0.69 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77). Conclusions: The models for predicting in-hospital death in patients with acute heart failure show poor performance, predictability and discrimination in the Colombian population, suggesting the development of mortality prediction scales in patients with acute heart failure specific to our population.

The risk factors and prevention for Alzheimer's disease / 中华行为医学与脑科学杂志

With the aggravation of worldwide population aging,Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been an enormous impact on public health nowadays.Previous studies showed the incidence of AD has been declining in some high-income countries over three decades,which may be associated with improvement of living environment,education and medical care conditions.Therefore,evaluation risk factors of AD and take corresponding preventive measures has become an urgent problem to delay the occurrence and progress of AD.The mainly non-modifiable risk factors including age,gender,family history of genetic disease and genetic factors.Several modifiable risk factors are also confirmed to increase risk of AD occurrences,such as low education,hypertension and obesity in mid-life,diabetes mellitus,less physical activity,current smoking and depression.Various existing risk models for identifying individuals with high risk of AD have been developed in order to open new doors for targeted prevention.