ABSTRACT
Objective:To forecast Urban Employees' Basic Medical Insurance ( UEBMI) in the next 85 years based on population size, age and gender distribution, and to calculate its sustainability gap. Methods:According to the population policy of Beijing and economic development of the region;based on the data of the sixth census in Bei-jing, the estimation model was constructed, and its parameters were defined and selected. Based on the period of 2010, the future of UEBMI in the next 85 year was predicted based on the population size, age and gender distribu-tion. Results:The population of UEBMI in Beijing will reach the maximum value in 2020, and then the downward trend will increase. The aging rate of the insured population will accelerate year after year and will reach the peak in the middle of this 21st century. The sustainability gap is predicted to reach at least 9541. 35 Billion dollars, and the Beijing municipal government is expected to level an average of at least 44 . 693 billion yuan per year to set aside the financial funds in order to fill the gap, so sustainable development of the fund is ensured. Conclusion:From the point of view of the insured population, there is a huge financial sustainability risk in the future of UEBMI in Beijing.