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ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality in older people living with the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological study with temporal and spatial approaches to analyze mortality from HIV/AIDS in the older adult population in the 2010-2020 period in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of temporal trends was performed using the joinpoint regression, and spatial analysis was carried out using the Moran's index and the local empirical Bayesian model. Results: We identified a total of 3,070 deaths from HIV/AIDS among older adults and a mortality rate of 51.71 per 100 thousand inhabitants during the study period. The joinpoint method showed a growing trend for the age groups from 70 to 79 years (annual percent change [APC]=3.45; p=0.01) and ≥80 years (APC=6.60; p=0.006) and stability for the general older adult population (APC=0.99; p=0.226). The spatial distribution of the crude mortality rate was diffuse throughout the state. After smoothing by the Bayesian estimator, we observed greater concentration in the eastern mesoregions. In Moran's analysis, we observed clusters of lower mortality rates in more central regions; and of higher rates in the southern and northern regions of the state. Conclusions: We found a major growing trend in mortality from HIV/AIDS in the age group of older adults over 69 years during the 2010-2020 period. Clusters of high mortality rates were located in regions further to the south and north of the state, where places of greater social inequalities are concentrated.
RESUMO Objetivo: O estudo tem como objetivo analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da mortalidade em idosos que vivem com HIV/AIDS no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com abordagens temporal e espacial para análise da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS em pessoas idosas no período de 2010-2020 no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. A análise das tendências temporais foi realizada por meio da regressão joinpoint e as análises espaciais foram realizadas usando o índice de Moran e o modelo bayesiano empírico local. Resultados: Foram identificados 3.070 óbitos por HIV/AIDS entre pessoas idosas e taxa de mortalidade de 51,71 por 100 mil habitantes no período de estudo. O método joinpoint revelou tendência crescente para as faixas etárias de 70 a 79 anos (variação percentual anual — APC=3,45 p=0,01) e 80 anos ou mais (APC=6,60, p=0,006) e de estabilidade para a população idosa geral (APC=0,99, p=0,226). A distribuição espacial da taxa bruta de mortalidade demonstrou-se difusa em todo o estado. Após suavização pelo estimador bayesiano, observou-se maior concentração nas mesorregiões ao leste. Na análise de Moran, foram observados aglomerados das menores taxas de mortalidade em regiões mais centrais e das altas taxas em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado. Conclusão: O grupo etário em que ocorreu maior tendência de crescimento da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS durante o período de 2010-2020 foi o de pessoas idosas com mais de 69 anos. Os aglomerados das altas taxas de mortalidade foram localizados em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado, onde se concentram locais de maiores desigualdades sociais.
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In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, which is the most commonly used model in survival analysis, the effects of independent variables on survival may not be constant over time and proportionality cannot be achieved, especially when long-term follow-up is required. When this occurs, it would be better to use alternative methods that are more powerful for the evaluation of various effective independent variables, such as milestone survival analysis, restricted mean survival time analysis (RMST), area under the survival curve (AUSC) method, parametric accelerated failure time (AFT), machine learning, nomograms, and offset variable in logistic regression. The aim
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Objetivo: Analisar tendências nas prevalências do sobrepeso e obesidade no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, entre 2009 e 2018. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, com dados do Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional. O sobrepeso e a obesidade foram classificados conforme preconiza a Organização Mundial da Saúde. Realizou-se regressão linear (Prais-Winsten) para estimar a tendência da prevalência. Resultados: Observou-se tendência crescente de sobrepeso (5,5 a 8,6%) e obesidade (4,4 a 8,3%), em ambos os sexos e nas diferentes regiões do estado. Na análise estratificada, houve aumento de sobrepeso e obesidade em crianças, adolescentes e adultos do sexo feminino (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). No sexo masculino, nas regiões norte, central e sul do estado, a obesidade cresceu entre adolescentes, enquanto na região sul, em todas as faixas etárias (crescimento de 5,1%; p=0,01). Conclusão: Houve aumento do sobrepeso e da obesidade no Espírito Santo, de 2009 a 2018.
Objetivo: Analizar tendencias en la prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad en el estado de Espírito Santo, Brasil, de 2009-2018. Métodos: Estudio ecológico utilizando datos del Sistema de Vigilancia Alimentaria y Nutricional. El sobrepeso y la obesidad se clasificaron según recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Se realizó regresión lineal (Prais-Winsten) para estimar la tendencia de prevalencia. Resultados: Se observó una tendencia creciente al sobrepeso (5,5 a 8,6%) y a la obesidad (4,4 a 8,3%), en ambos sexos y regiones. En el análisis estratificado, hubo aumento de sobrepeso y obesidad en niños, adolescentes y mujeres adultas (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). En los hombres, la obesidad aumentó entre los adolescentes de las regiones norte, centro y sur del estado y hubo un aumento de la obesidad (5,1%; p=0,01) en todas las edades en la región sur. Conclusión: Hubo un aumento del sobrepeso y la obesidad de 2009 a 2018 en Espírito Santo.
Objective To analyze trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2009 and 2018. Methods This was an ecological study, with data from the Food and Nutritional Surveillance System (SISVAN). Overweight and obesity were classified as recommended by the World Health Organization. Prais-Winsten regression was used to estimate the trend of the prevalence. Results There was an increasing trend of overweight (5.5 to 8.6%) and obesity (4.4 to 8.3%), in both sexes and in different regions of the state. In the stratified analysis, there was an increase in overweight and obesity in children, adolescents and adult women (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). Obesity increased among male adolescents, in the south, central and north regions of the state, while in the south region, in all age groups (5.1% growth; p=0.01). Conclusion There was an increase in overweight and obesity in Espírito Santo, from 2009 to 2018.
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Humans , Child, Preschool , Child , Adolescent , Nutritional Status , Overweight , Pediatric Obesity/epidemiology , Food and Nutritional Surveillance , Body Weight , Brazil/epidemiology , Spatio-Temporal AnalysisABSTRACT
Introducción: La mortalidad por diabetes mellitus es un problema de salud pública en ascenso en el mundo. Objetivos: Analizar los patrones temporales y espaciales de mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en Ecuador durante el periodo 2001-2016. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio ecológico mixto. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad específica y ajustada por edad para el periodo 2001-2016 en el Ecuador. Se utilizó el análisis de regresión de punto de inflexión para el análisis de las tendencias, y la metodología desarrollada por Kulldorf para el análisis de conglomerados espacio-temporales. Resultados: Durante el periodo 2001-2016 se registraron 57 788 defunciones por diabetes mellitus en el Ecuador. En el análisis de punto de inflexión las tasas ajustadas por edad en hombres reportaron un ascenso significativo del porcentaje de cambio anual de 2,4 por ciento (2001-2016; p < 0,001) y en las mujeres ascendió al 1,50 por ciento (2001-2016; p < 0,001). En el análisis espacio-temporal se detectaron dos conglomerados de alta mortalidad estadísticamente significativos, el conglomerado primario conformado por las provincias: Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí y Los Ríos (p < 0,001) y el conglomerado secundario formado por la provincia de Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas (p < 0,001). Conclusiones: La mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en el Ecuador se incrementó significativamente en la mayor parte de los grupos etarios y provincias durante el periodo 2001-2016. Las provincias de Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos y Santo Domingo, acumularon la mayor cantidad de muertes por esta causa. Esto obliga a quienes tienen que tomar las decisiones a direccionar el diseño e implementación de políticas en salud que permitan mejorar los sistemas de registro para una adecuada vigilancia epidemiológica de la incidencia y carga de esta enfermedad(AU)
Introduction: Diabetes mellitus mortality is a growing public health problem in the world. Objectives: To analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of mortality by diabetes mellitus in Ecuador during the period 2001-2016. Methods: A mixed ecological study was performed. There were calculated the specific mortality rates and they were adjusted by age for the period 2001-2016 in Ecuador. It was used a joinpoint´s regression analysis for the assessment of trends and it was used the methodology developed by Kulldorf for the analysis of time-space clusters. Results: During the period 2001-2016 there were 57 788 deaths from diabetes mellitus in Ecuador. In the joinpoint analysis, age-adjusted rates in men reported a significant increase in the percentage of annual change of 2.4 percent (2001-2016; p<0.001) and in women increased to 1.50 percent (2001-2016; p<0.001). In the time-space analysis identified, there were identified two clusters of statistically significant high mortality: the first conglomerate formed by the provinces Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí and Los Ríos (p< 0.001); and the second conglomerate formed by the province of Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas (p< 0.001). Conclusions: Mortality by diabetes mellitus in Ecuador was significantly increased in most age groups and provinces during the period 2001-2016. The provinces of Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos and Santo Domingo accumulated the biggest number of deaths due to this cause. This forces decision makers to address the design and implementation of health policies that allow improving the registration systems for an adequate epidemiological surveillance(AU)
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Humans , Male , Female , Diabetes Mellitus/mortality , Ecuador , Ecological StudiesABSTRACT
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES: To identify spatial and space-time clusters with high incidence rates of AIDS in men living in the city of São Paulo since the first case of the disease in 1980. METHODS: HIV/AIDS notifications were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (57,440 men) between January 1980 and June 2012. The cases were geocoded by residence address; then analyses of purely spatial, space-time and spatial variation in temporal trends were performed for three sets of data: total cases of AIDS in men aged 13 years or older, men aged 50 years or older, and deaths from AIDS. RESULTS: It was possible to geocode a significant proportion of AIDS cases (93.7%). In the purely spatial scanning analysis, considering the entire period evaluated, the AIDS epidemic in men presented an important spatial concentration in the Center and in contiguous areas of the North, Southeast and West regions of the municipality, regardless of age group and evolution to death (relative risks between 1.22 and 5.90). Considering space and time simultaneously, several clusters were found, spread throughout all regions of the municipality (relative risks between 1.44 and 8.61). In the analysis of spatial variation in temporal trends, the clusters in the most peripheral regions presented a higher annual percentage increase in disease rates (up to 7.58%), denoting the tendency of "peripherization" of the epidemic in men in the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: This study allowed the detection of geographic clusters of high risk for AIDS in men, pointing to priority areas in the municipality, both for programmatic actions and to guide other studies.
RESUMO OBJETIVOS: Identificar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de altas taxas de incidência de aids em homens residentes no município de São Paulo desde o primeiro caso da doença em 1980. MÉTODOS: As notificações de HIV/aids foram obtidas do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (57.440 homens) entre janeiro de 1980 e junho de 2012. Os casos foram geocodificados por endereço de residência; em seguida, análises de varredura puramente espacial, espaço-temporal e de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foram realizadas para três conjuntos de dados: total de casos de aids em homens com 13 anos de idade ou mais, homens com 50 anos ou mais e óbitos por aids. RESULTADOS: Foi possível geocodificar uma expressiva proporção de casos de aids (93,7%). Na análise de varredura puramente espacial, considerando-se todo o período avaliado, a epidemia de aids nos homens apresentou importante concentração espacial no Centro e em áreas contíguas das regiões Norte, Sudeste e Oeste do município, independentemente da faixa etária e da evolução para o óbito (riscos relativos entre 1,22 e 5,90). Levando-se em conta simultaneamente o espaço e o tempo, diversos aglomerados foram encontrados, espalhados por todas as regiões do município (riscos relativos entre 1,44 e 8,61). Na análise da variação espacial nas tendências temporais, os aglomerados nas regiões mais periféricas apresentaram maior incremento percentual anual das taxas da doença (de até 7,58%), denotando a tendência de "periferização" da epidemia nos homens na cidade de São Paulo. CONCLUSÕES: Este estudo permitiu a detecção de aglomerados geográficos de alto risco para a aids nos homens, apontando para áreas prioritárias no município, tanto para ações programáticas como para nortear outros estudos.
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Humans , Male , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Young Adult , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Incidence , Spatial Analysis , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Middle AgedABSTRACT
PURPOSE: The authors analyzed the survival time of severely burned patients who died and reviewed the time of the death after the burn injury. We aimed to determine any relation to the survival time with most important prognostic factors of the surface area burned and the age. METHODS: Statistical analysis was performed on 275 severely burned victims who died at our burn center of Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015 for 6 years. RESULTS: 1. The mean age was 50.12±18.2 years and the average burn size was 61.0±27.1% of total body surface area. 2. Most of the patients (90%) died within 45 days, and 80% died within 30 days. 40% of the patients died within 10 days after burn injury, 20% of the patients died between 10 to 20 days after burn injury, 20% of the patients died between 20 to 30 days after burn injury and the rapid decrease in the number of death was observed after 30 days of burn injury time. 3. The shorter survival time (x-axis) time was observed in the patients with larger area of the burned size (y-axis) and the longer survival time was observed with smaller area of the burned size. The negative correlation was shown as figure 1. 4. There was no correlation shown between the age and the survival time of burn victims after burn injury. CONCLUSION: The mortality rate was significantly decreased at 30 to 40 days after burn injury. Therefore, the burn surgeons need more carefully and diversely plan and perform for the initial treatments since the initial surgical procedures determine the survival of severely burned patients.
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Humans , Body Surface Area , Burn Units , Burns , Heart , Mortality , SurgeonsABSTRACT
<p>Objectives: We developed versions 2 and 3 of the Biological Prognostic Score (BPS) for advanced cancer patients and confirmed the prediction accuracy. Methods: We conducted a parametric survival analysis using blood test data, performance status (PS), clinical symptoms, age, sex, and cancer type as variables for advanced cancer patients who completed or suspended cancer treatment, in the development of BPS2 and BPS3. We then prospectively compared the accuracy between BPS2/BPS3 and the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI). Results: We developed the BPS2 and BPS3 based on the data from 589 patients in a development cohort. While the former version was calculated based on the cholinesterase, blood urea nitrogen, and white blood cell counts, the latter was calculated based on the BPS2, ECOG PS and edema. For 206 patients in a validation cohort, the overall accuracy in prediction of survival for 3 and 6 weeks using the BPS2 and BPS3 were significantly higher than those for the PPI. Conclusion: The usefulness of BPS2 and BPS3 was suggested.</p>
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Objective Through analyzing the surveillance data on typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2015 to understand the related epidemiological features and most possible clustering areas of high incidence.Methods Individual data was collected from the passive surveillance program and analyzed by descriptive statistic method.Characteristics on seasonal,regional and distribution of the diseases were described.Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics were estimated,under the retrospective space-time method.Results A total of 8 850 typhoid fever cases were reported from the surveillance system,with incidence rate as 0.65/100 000.The number of paratyphoid fever cases was 2 794,with incidence rate as 0.21/100 000.Both cases of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever occurred all year round,with high epidemic season from May to October.Most cases involved farmers (39.68％),children (15.89％) and students (12.01％).Children under 5 years showed the highest incidence rate.Retrospective space-time analysis for provinces with high incidence rates would include Yurnan,Guangxi,Guizhou,Hunan and Guangdong,indicating the first and second class clusters were mainly distributed near the bordering adjacent districts and counties among the provinces.Conclusion In 2015,the prevalence rates of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever were low,however with regional high prevalence areas.Cross regional transmission existed among provinces with high incidence rates which might be responsible for the clusters to appear in these areas.
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Objective Through analyzing the surveillance data on typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2015 to understand the related epidemiological features and most possible clustering areas of high incidence.Methods Individual data was collected from the passive surveillance program and analyzed by descriptive statistic method.Characteristics on seasonal,regional and distribution of the diseases were described.Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics were estimated,under the retrospective space-time method.Results A total of 8 850 typhoid fever cases were reported from the surveillance system,with incidence rate as 0.65/100 000.The number of paratyphoid fever cases was 2 794,with incidence rate as 0.21/100 000.Both cases of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever occurred all year round,with high epidemic season from May to October.Most cases involved farmers (39.68％),children (15.89％) and students (12.01％).Children under 5 years showed the highest incidence rate.Retrospective space-time analysis for provinces with high incidence rates would include Yurnan,Guangxi,Guizhou,Hunan and Guangdong,indicating the first and second class clusters were mainly distributed near the bordering adjacent districts and counties among the provinces.Conclusion In 2015,the prevalence rates of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever were low,however with regional high prevalence areas.Cross regional transmission existed among provinces with high incidence rates which might be responsible for the clusters to appear in these areas.
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Resumo Este estudo analisou a distribuição espaço-temporal dos casos de leishmaniose visceral (LV) no estado do Maranhão, no período de 2000 a 2009. A partir do número de casos notificados, foram elaborados mapas temáticos para demonstrar a evolução da distribuição geográfica da doença no estado. Utilizou-se o método MCMC para estimação dos parâmetros do modelo bayesiano espaço-temporal para a identificação das áreas de risco. De 2000 a 2009, foram notificados 5.389 casos de leishmaniose visceral, distribuídos em todas as 18 Unidades Regionais de Saúde do estado, com as maiores incidências em: Caxias, Imperatriz, Presidente Dutra e Chapadinha. As Unidades Regionais de Saúde com maiores riscos relativos por biênio foram: Caxias e Barra do Corda (2000-2001), Imperatriz e Presidente Dutra (2002-2003), Imperatriz e Caxias (2004-2005), Presidente Dutra e Codó (2006-2007), e Imperatriz e Caxias (2008-2009). Houve uma considerável expansão geográfica da LV no Maranhão, sendo necessária a adoção de medidas mais eficazes de prevenção e controle da doença no estado.
Abstract This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of visceral leishmaniasis in the State of Maranhão in the period from 2000 to 2009. Based on the number of reported cases, thematic maps were prepared to show the evolution of the geographical distribution of the disease in the state. The MCMC method was used for estimating the parameters of the Bayesian model for space-time identification of risk areas. From 2000 to 2009 there were 5389 reported cases of visceral leishmaniasis, distributed in all 18 Regional Health Units in the state, with the highest indices in the cities of Caxias, Imperatriz, Presidente Dutra and Chapadinha. The Regional Health Units with the highest relative risks per biennium were: Caxias and Barra do Corda (2000-2001), Imperatriz and President Dutra (2002-2003), Imperatriz and Caxias (2004-2005), Presidente Dutra and Codó (2006-2007) and Imperatriz and Caxias (2008-2009). There was considerable geographic expansion of visceral leishmaniasis in Maranhão, thus highlighting the need to adopt more effective measures for prevention and control of the disease in the state.
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Humans , Leishmaniasis, Visceral/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Bayes Theorem , CitiesABSTRACT
Objective To develop a computer-auto-controlling and analysis system for Tail suspension .Methods Combining the advantage of computer science , engineering and animal behavior into tail suspension test .The “energy”index was developed .The system was validated with antidepressants such as imipramine and paroxetine .Results The measuring principle is based on the energy developed by mice trying to escape from their suspension .During the test, the movements of the mice are analyzed in terms of force , energy and power developed over time .Each mouse issuspended by the tail using adhesive tape to a hook connected to a tail test sensor .The tail test sensor fixed to suspension bar picks up all movements of the mouse and transmits these to a signal regulation unit and transmission circuit , which amplify , filter and digitalizes the signals.The signals are displayed visually in waveform .Activity time, immobility time, energy are continuously updated .The correlation coefficient of “immobility time” collected by computer and manpower was 0.94. Using this system, both imipramine and paroxetine could decreased the immobility time and paroxetine could increased the energy induced by mice ( both P <0.01 ) .Conclusion A stable computer-auto-controlling and analysis system for Tail suspension was established and could be used to screen the antidepressants .
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OBJECTIVE: To develop an on-line analysis method based on near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for monitoring the percolation process of compound Kushen injection traditional Chinese medicines. METHODS: Samples and correlative spectra were collected with online equipment in percolation process. The contents of total alkaloids and total solids measured with standard methods were used as reference values. Multivariate calibration models based on partial least squares (PLS) algorithm were developed to correlate the spectra and the reference values. RESULTS: The correlation coefficients of the calibration models for total alkaloids and total solids were 0.9979 and 0.9960 with root mean square errors (RMSECs) of 0.0721 g · L-1 and 0.0811%, respectively. External validation samples collected on-line were used to evaluate the quantitative models. The correlation coefficients between the predicted value and the reference value were 0.9915 and 0.9990 with root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEPs) of 0.1950 g· L-1 and 0.0681%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The presented method is rapid, accurate and reliable, which can be used for monitoring the percolation process of compound Kushen injection.
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Freezing of gait (FOG) can be assessed by clinical and instrumental methods. Clinical examination has the advantage of being available to most clinicians; however, it requires experience and may not reveal FOG even for cases confirmed by the medical history. Instrumental methods have an advantage in that they may be used for ambulatory monitoring. The aim of the present study was to describe and evaluate a new instrumental method based on a force sensitive resistor and Pearson's correlation coefficient (Pcc) for the assessment of FOG. Nine patients with Parkinson's disease in the "on" state walked through a corridor, passed through a doorway and made a U-turn. We analyzed 24 FOG episodes by computing the Pcc between one "regular/normal" step and the rest of the steps. The Pcc reached ±1 for "normal" locomotion, while correlation diminished due to the lack of periodicity during FOG episodes. Gait was assessed in parallel with video. FOG episodes determined from the video were all detected with the proposed method. The computed duration of the FOG episodes was compared with those estimated from the video. The method was sensitive to various types of freezing; although no differences due to different types of freezing were detected. The study showed that Pcc analysis permitted the computerized detection of FOG in a simple manner analogous to human visual judgment, and its automation may be useful in clinical practice to provide a record of the history of FOG.