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Objective:To explore the correlation between changing trajectories of serum uric acid and the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).Methods:A longitudinal cohort study. Total of 3 353 subjects who had routine health examination every year from January 2017 to December 2019 in the Health Management Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University and met the inclusion criteria were selected as the research subjects. Four different serum uric acid trajectory groups were determined by using the group-based trajectory model: the low stability group, medium stability group, medium-high stability group and high stability group. During the follow-up to December 2021, the differences in cumulative incidence of NAFLD in different serum uric acid trajectory groups were calculated and compared. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the hazard ratio ( HR) and 95% confidence interval ( CI) of the NAFLD onset in different serum uric acid trajectory groups. The dose-response relationship between baseline serum uric acid and NAFLD was evaluated by a restricted cubic spline regression model. Results:The cumulative incidence of NAFLD in two years was 10.77%, and the cumulative incidence increased with the rising trajectory of serum uric acid, it was the highestin the high stability group ( P<0.05). Compared that in the low stability group, the risk of NAFLD in the other three groups was as follows: 2.24 (95% CI: 1.59-3.14) in the medium stability group, 2.89 (95% CI: 1.92-4.33) in the medium-high stability group and 4.55 (95% CI:2.83-7.31) in the high stability group (all P<0.05). The risk of NAFLD gradually increased with the rising of serum uric acid level, and the cut-off value of serum uric acid for women and men was 260.32 μmol/L and 365.09 μmol/L, respectively. Conclusions:Long-term moderate and high levels of serum uric acid are independent risk factors for the occurrence of NAFLD. With the rising of serum uric acid trajectory, the risk of NAFLD increases. Attention should be paid to the longitudinal change trend of serum uric acid level in the prevention of NAFLD, and it should be controlled within lower level of the normal range.
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<p><b>Background</b>Previous studies have shown that hypertension is an important factor contributing to the occurrence and progression of diabetic kidney damage. However, the relationship between the patterns of blood pressure (BP) trajectory and kidney damage in the diabetic population remains unclear. This prospective study investigated the effect of long-term systolic BP (SBP) trajectory on kidney damage in the diabetic population based on an 8-year follow-up community-based cohort.</p><p><b>Methods</b>This study included 4556 diabetic participants among 101,510 participants. BP, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urinary protein were measured every 2 years from 2006 to 2014. SBP trajectory was identified by the censored normal modeling. Five discrete SBP trajectories were identified according to SBP range and the changing pattern over time. Kidney damage was evaluated through eGFR and urinary protein value. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the influence of different SBP trajectory groups on kidney damage.</p><p><b>Results</b>We identified five discrete SBP trajectories: low-stable group (n = 864), moderate-stable group (n = 1980), moderate increasing group (n = 609), elevated decreasing group, (n = 679), and elevated stable group (n = 424). The detection rate of kidney damage in the low-stable group (SBP: 118-124 mmHg) was the lowest among the five groups. The detection rate of each kidney damage index was higher in the elevated stable group (SBP: 159-172 mmHg) compared with the low-stable group. For details, the gap was 4.14 (11.6% vs. 2.8%) in eGFR <60 ml·min·1.73 m and 3.66 (17.2% vs. 4.7%), 3.38 (25.0% vs. 7.4%), and 1.8 (10.6% vs. 5.9%) times in positive urinary protein, eGFR <60 ml·min·1.73 m and/or positive urinary protein, and eGFR decline ≥30%, respectively (P < 0.01).</p><p><b>Conclusion</b>An elevated stable SBP trajectory is an independent risk factor for kidney damage in the diabetic population.</p>
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Female , Humans , Male , Asian People , Blood Pressure , Physiology , Glomerular Filtration Rate , Physiology , Hypertension , Logistic Models , Prospective Studies , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
This article introduced the application of trajectory model in epidemiological study on fat development in sixty teenagers.Results showed that fat developing trend on three trajectories-normal fat group,high fat group and very high fat group,with independently different developing trend.Trajectory model seemed a suitable model for fitting the longitudinal data with heterogeneity.