A time series analysis on under 5 mortality rate in Zhejiang Province / 预防医学

Objective To study the temporal distribution regular pattern of under 5 mortality rate(U5MR)from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province,and to predict the under 5 mortality rate in 201 5.Methods A time series ARIMA (p,d,q) forecasting model for U5MR was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 statistical analysis software.Results The UMAR showed downward trend.The ARIMA(2,1 ,2)model of U5MR from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province is yt =-0.696 +0.636yt -1 +0.024yt -2 +0.340yt -3 +αt -0.003αt -1 +0.997αt -2 ,and the model fitting was good.Each of the actual mortality was consistent with the trend of model prediction,and was within the 95% confidence interval.The predicted value of U5MR was 4.08‰ (95% CI:1 .52‰ -6.64‰)in 201 5.Conclusion Time series analysis is an effective way to analyze the temporal distribution regular pattern of U5MR,which could be used for short -term prediction.

Saneamiento y relación con la salud de la niñez en el contexto mundial 2004 / Sanitation as related to children`s health in the world context 2004

Se determina el efecto mundial de los diferentes tipos de cobertura de disposición de excretas, DE, definidas en el marco del concepto "Instalaciones de Saneamiento Mejoradas", ISM, de OMS y UNICEF, sobre las tasas de mortalidad en niños menores de 5 años, TM menor 5 años. Para lograrlo se recolectaron datos de cobertura de DE en 161 países del "Programa Conjunto de Monitoreo" del 2004. Las TM menor 5 años se obtuvieron del informe "Progreso para la Infancia: un balance sobre agua y saneamiento". Los datos de ISM se clasificaron en totales, ISM-total, alcantarillado, DEA, tanques sépticos y letrinas, DET y L, y sin servicio, DESS. Se aplicaron 3 métodos estadísticos: distribución de frecuencias entre los intervalos de ambas variables, la correlación simple de Pearson entre los tipos de evacuación de excretas y las TM menor 5 años y la correlación Parcial al 95 por ciento de confianza pero controlando variables. Los resultados indican que a mayor cobertura mediante ISM-total menor es la TM menor 5 años, con una correlación de menos 0.782, mientras que las coberturas con DEA tienen mayor impacto sobre la disminución de la mortalidad que cuando se realiza por DET y L. Estos resultados se ratifican con las otras pruebas estadísticas y comprueban la hipótesis.

The worldwide effect on mortality in children under five years of age (MR < 5 years ) is determined for the different types of excreta disposal (ED) coverage, as defined in the framework of "Improved Sanitation Facilities (ISF)", established by the WHO and UNICEF. To accomplish this, ED coverage data was collected from 161 countries participating in the "Joint Monitoring Programme" in 2004. The mortality rates were obtained from "Progress for Children: A Balance on Water and Sanitation". ISF data were classified as: total (total-ISF), sewage (DEA), septic tanks and latrines (DET and L), and without services (DESS). Three statistical methods were applied: frequency distribution between the intervals of both variables, Pearson´s simple correlation between the types of excreta evacuation and the MR<5 years, and partial correlation at 95% confidence but controlling the variables. Results indicate that as total coverage (total-ISF) increases, there is a lower incidence of mortality (MR < 5 years), with a correlation of –0,782; while DEA coverage has a greater impact over mortality decrease as compared to DET and L. The results are ratified with the other statistical tests and prove the hypothesis.