Does cryptogenic organizing pneumonia change seasonal?

SUMMARY BACKGROUND AND AIM: Meteorological factors affect the respiratory system, and the most important factor is the change in ambient temperature and humidity. We aimed to investigate the seasonal characteristics of patients diagnosed with cryptogenic organizing pneumonia. METHODS: The study included 84 cryptogenic organizing pneumonia, 55 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 42 asthma patients. To determine the characteristics of the disease according to the seasons, the number of attacks and admissions was grouped according to the seasonal characteristics and analyzed for three groups. RESULTS: Among cryptogenic organizing pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, males significantly predominated (p<0.001). The hospitalization rate was highest in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients but similar to cryptogenic organizing pneumonia and asthma patients (p<0.001). The highest admission rate in cryptogenic organizing pneumonia patients was observed in spring (39.3% in spring, 26.2% in fall, 22.6% in winter, and 11.9% in summer). In winter, cryptogenic organizing pneumonia patients were admitted less frequently than chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma patients. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was higher in cryptogenic organizing pneumonia patients than in asthma patients and similar to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. CONCLUSION: As a result of our study, the high rate of diagnosis and admission in the spring in cryptogenic organizing pneumonia suggested that the effect of allergens on the formation of cryptogenic organizing pneumonia should be investigated. In contrast, it should be kept in mind that cryptogenic organizing pneumonia may develop as a prolonged finding of involvement that may occur in the lung parenchyma due to lung infections and/or cold weather triggering during the winter months. In this regard, further studies can be conducted in which allergens and/or the history of infection in patients and meteorological variables are also evaluated.

Report of human fascioliasis under different climatic conditions in Brazil / Registro de fasciolose humana em diferentes condições climáticas no Brasil / Registro de fascioliasis humana bajo diferentes condiciones climáticas en Brasil

Introduction: Human fascioliasis is a plant-borne and water-borne infection caused by the trematodes Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica. It is one of the main neglected tropical diseases, and infections in humans occur via the ingestion of contaminated water and food. This study reviews all the recorded cases of human fascioliasis in Brazil under different climatic conditions in the national territory. Methodology:A survey of human fascioliasis cases in Brazil was carried out using the Google Scholar, Lilacs and PubMed databases. The climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, moisture and altitude were obtained from the database of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Results: Between the years 1958 and 2022, sixty-six cases of human fascioliasis were recorded in places with temperature levels between 22 °C to 33 °C, humidity 78% to 86%, precipitation 90 mm to 167 mm, and at an altitude of 16 to 935 meters above sea level. Conclusion: The parasite's ability to adapt to different climatic conditions is observed in Brazil and the number of cases of human fascioliasis in the national territory may be higher due to underreporting related to the difficulty in diagnosing the infection.

Introdução: A fasciolíase humana é uma infecção de origem vegetal e hídrica, causada pelos trematódeos Fasciola hepatica e Fasciola gigantica. É uma das principais doenças tropicais negligenciadas, e as infecções em humanos ocorrem através da ingestão de água e alimentos contaminados. Este estudo revisa todos os casos registrados de fasciolíase humana no Brasil sob diferentes condições climáticas no território nacional. Metodologia: Um levantamento dos casos de fasciolíase humana no Brasil foi realizado nas bases de dados Google Scholar, Lilacs e PubMed. As variáveis climáticas como temperatura, precipitação, umidade e altitude foram obtidas do banco de dados do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Resultados: Entre os anos de 1958 e 2022, sessenta e seis casos de fasciolíase humana foram registrados em locais com níveis de temperatura entre 22 °C a 33 °C, umidade de 78% a 86%, precipitação de 90 mm a 167 mm e altitude de 16 a 935 metros acima do nível do mar. Conclusão: A capacidade de adaptação do parasito a diferentes condições climáticas é observada no Brasil e o número de casos de fasciolíase humana no território nacional pode ser maior devido à subnotificação relacionada à dificuldade de diagnóstico da infecção.

Introducción: La fascioliasis humana es una infección de origen vegetal y acuático, causada por los trematodos Fasciola hepatica y Fasciola gigantica. Es una de las principales enfermedades tropicales desatendidas, y las infecciones en humanos ocurren a través de la ingestión de agua y alimentos contaminados. Este estudio revisa todos los casos registrados de fascioliasis humana en Brasil bajo diferentes condiciones climáticas en el territorio nacional. Metodología: Se realizó una encuesta de casos de fascioliasis humana en Brasil utilizando las bases de datos Google Scholar, Lilacs y PubMed. Las variables climáticas como temperatura, precipitación, humedad y altitud se obtuvieron de la base de datos del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INMET). Resultados: Entre los años 1958 y 2022 se registraron sesenta y seis casos de fascioliasis humana en lugares con temperatura entre 22 °C a 33 °C, humedad entre 78% y 86%, precipitación entre 90 mm y 167 mm y una altitud de 16 a 935 metros sobre el nivel del mar. Conclusión: La capacidad de adaptación del parásito a diferentes condiciones climáticas se observa en Brasil y el número de casos de fascioliasis humana en el territorio nacional puede ser mayor debido al subregistro relacionado con la dificultad en el diagnóstico de la infección.

Investigation on Headache Caused by Weather and Atmospheric Pressure Changes and Use of Goreisan / 社会薬学

A questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the use of goreisan for headaches caused by weather and atmospheric pressure changes, and to clarify issues in promoting treatment with goreisan. The subjects were men and women in their 20s to 40s who developed headaches due to changes in weather and atmospheric pressure. Medication was used by 58.0% of the migraine group and 42.5% of the other headaches group. Among them, 27.5% of the migraine group and 15.1% of the other headaches group had used goreisan. Regarding the method of use of goreisan, the most common answer for the migraine group was “used after feeling a sign that headache is likely to occur,” whereas for the other headaches group, the most common response was “used after headache has occurred.” In the migraine group, the most frequent premonitory symptom was “stiffness in the shoulders and neck.” More than 80% of both groups were satisfied with the use of goreisan. In addition, 77.8% of migraine group and 59.5% of the other headaches group of those who had never used goreisan answered that they would like to use goreisan for headaches caused by weather or atmospheric pressure changes in the future. As a reason for not wanting to use goreisan, over half of both groups answered that they did not like the taste of herbal medicines. It is necessary to offer tablets to patients that do not like the taste.

A "realidade do saber e da habilidade que se inculca": clima, médicos e saúde pública no Brasil, 1808-1835 / The "reality of the knowledge and the ability instilled": climate, doctors, and public health in Brazil, 1808-1835

Resumo Esse artigo analisa os esforços de construção de espaços próprios à intelectualidade médica no Brasil a partir da transferência da Corte de Lisboa para o Rio de Janeiro em 1808, passando pelo processo de independência do país, até a criação da Academia Imperial de Medicina, em 1835. A partir dessas iniciativas, procurou-se afirmar a proeminência do saber médico-científico diante das práticas de cura tradicionais, bem como uma agenda higiênica para a nação independente, fortemente atrelada à legitimação de uma expertise local sobre a climatologia brasileira. Ao longo desse processo, algumas lideranças médicas envolvidas buscavam afirmar a convergência entre o discurso higiênico e os interesses do Estado imperial nascente, ao mesmo tempo em que anunciavam renovar os mecanismos de legitimação da carreira que, supostamente, passavam a se dar pelo mérito científico em detrimento dos favorecimentos clientelares típicos do Antigo Regime.

Abstract This article analyzes the efforts to build spaces for the medical community in Brazil since the transfer of the Court from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro in 1808, through the country's independence process, until the creation of the Imperial Academy of Medicine, in 1835. Such initiatives affirm the prominence of medical-scientific knowledge in the face of traditional healing practices, as well as a hygienic agenda for the independent nation, strongly linked to the legitimation of local expertise in Brazilian climatology. Throughout this process, some medical leaders involved sought to affirm the convergence between the hygienic discourse and the interests of the nascent imperial state, while at the same time announcing the renewal of the mechanisms of legitimation of the career that, supposedly, started to be given by scientific merit instead of the patronage system typical of the Ancien Régime.

Is Elective Implant Removal after Fracture Healing Beneficial? – A Prospective Cohort Study

@#Introduction: Elective implant removal following healed extremity fractures remains controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the reasons and outcomes of implant removal after uneventful healing of limb fractures. Materials and methods: This is a prospective single-centre observational cohort study. Patients who sustained upper or lower extremity fractures that were fixed and healed uneventfully were included in the study when they elected to remove the implants. Patients were followed for six months post-operatively. Outcomes were assessed with patient satisfaction, symptoms resolution, and complications. Results: A total of 43 patients were recruited from October 2016 to March 2019. Thirty-six patients (37 implants) were symptomatic. Pain and prominence were the most common complaints, present in 59.5% and 33.3% of patients, respectively. Cold weather pain was also not uncommon (19.0%). Pain improved in 91.3% of the patients who complained of pain. The 94.6% symptomatic patients had at least partial resolution of pre-operative symptoms. All the patients who completed follow-up were satisfied with the procedure. In two patients, there were broken and retained screws intra-operatively. Post-operative complication rate was 23.8%, although no major complications occurred. Conclusions: Implant removal after uneventful healing of extremity fractures is a safe procedure that conferred a predictable relief of symptoms and satisfactory outcomes in most.

Strengthen mechanistic research on health impact of climate change and improve ability to address and adapt to climate change / 环境与职业医学

The threats to human health caused by climate change have become a global public health issue. However, at present, most studies regarding the health-related mechanisms of climate change are limited to biological mechanisms, and most of these mechanisms are not totally clear. In this special column: Mechanisms underlying human health effects of climate change, we offered several papers which investigated the effects of different meteorological factors (temperature and rainfall) on various health outcomes (preterm birth, death, diarrhea, infectious diseases, etc.), and also elaborated associated potential biological mechanisms, vulnerability mechanisms, social driving process and transmission dynamics mechanisms. These studies can deepen our understanding of the health effects of climate change, provide references to make targeted adaptative measures, and also provide scientific and technological supports for improving ability to address the health risks of climate change in China.

Haze weather health protection behavior and associated factors in adolescents / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To investigate adolescent haze weather health protection behavior, and to provide scientific basis for behavioral intervention and health guidance for adolescents in haze weather.@*Methods@#From June 2015 to April 2016, 1 025 adolescents were selected from 22 classes in two middle schools of Baoding City, Hebei Province, by stratified cluster sampling method. General information questionnaire and the Brief Haze Weather Health Protection Behavior Assessment Scale Adolescent Version (BHWHPBAS AV) were used. Multiple linear regressions were conducted to explore factors affecting adolescent haze weather health protection behavior. Different models were used to confirm associations between influencing factors and BHWHPBAS AV scores.@*Results@#Adolescents had a low overall score of BHWHPBASAV (45.81±13.16). The score rate of self adjustment after haze weather was the highest (64.54%). The score rate of obtaining relevant knowledge before haze weather was the lowest (50.28%). Compared with adolescents in urban area, rural adolescents had a lower BHWHPBAS AV score ( β=-3.20, P <0.01). Compared with students (living with parents), those living without parents had a lower BHWHPBAS AV score ( β=-4.16, P =0.01). Compared with students never receive physical examination,those had received physical examination during the past years had a higher BHWHPBAS AV score ( β=4.44，5.66，9.04, P <0.01). Compared with students with no knowledge of respiratory system diseases, those with moderate to sufficient knowledge had a higher BHWHPBAS AV score ( β=9.34，12.19，P <0.01). These associations were stable and consistent.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that residence, residence with parents, physical examination and knowledge of respiratory diseases were the relevant factors of BHWHPBAS AV score ( P <0.05).@*Conclusion@#Adolescent haze weather health protection behavior level is low and is affected by many factors. Cooperation should be strengthened to conduct behavioral interventions and health guidance on haze health protection for adolescents, so as to promote healthy growth of adolescents.

Weather and Birth Weight: Different Roles of Maternal and Neonatal GPR61 Promoter Methylation / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objectives@#It is unclear whether G protein-coupled receptor 61 (GPR61) affecting body weight, plays a role in the association between birth weight and weather. This study aimed to assess the effects of prenatal weather and GPR61 on birth weight.@*Methods@#A total of 567 mother-newborn pairs were recruited in Houzhai Center Hospital during 2011-2012. We detected the maternal and neonatal GPR61 promoter methylation levels, and obtained meteorological and air pollution data.@*Results@#A positive association was observed between maternal and neonatal GPR61 methylation levels, and both of them were affected by precipitation, relative humidity (RH) and daily temperature range (DTR). Birth weight was associated negatively with RH and positively with DTR ( P < 0.05). A significant association was observed between birth weight and neonatal GPR61 methylation. We observed that maternal GPR61 methylation seemed to modify associations between weather and birth weight ( P interaction < 0.10), while neonatal GPR61 methylation mediated the effects of RH and DTR on birth weight ( P < 0.05).@*Conclusions@#Our findings revealed the significant associations among prenatal weather, GPR61 methylation and birth weight. Maternal GPR61 methylation may modify the susceptibility of birth weight to prenatal weather conditions, while neonatal GPR61 methylation may be a bridge of the effects of prenatal RH and DTR on birth weight.

Clinical, epidemiological and climatic factors related to the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic area in northeastern Brazil / Fatores clínicos, epidemiológicos e climáticos relacionados à ocorrência de leishmaniose cutânea em área endêmica no nordeste do Brasil

Abstract Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease with a wide distribution in the Americas. Brazil is an endemic country and present cases in all states. This study aimed to describe the occurrence, the underlying clinical and epidemiological factors, and the correlation of climatic variables with the frequency of reported CL cases in the municipality of Caxias, state of Maranhão, Brazil. This is a retrospective and descriptive epidemiological study based on data extracted from the Brazilian Information System of Diseases Notification, from 2007 to 2017. Maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative air humidity data were provided by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. A total of 201 reported autochthonous CL cases were analyzed. The predominance of cases was observed in males (70.1%). The age range between 31 and 60 years old was the most affected, with 96 cases (47.9%). Of the total number of registered cases, 38.8% of the affected individuals were engaged in agriculture-related activities. The georeferenced distribution revealed the heterogeneity of disease occurrence, with cases concentrated in the Western and Southern regions of the municipality. An association was detected between relative air humidity (monthly mean) and the number of CL cases per month (p = 0.04). CL continues to be a concerning public health issue in Caxias. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen measures of prevention and control of the disease through the network of health services of the municipality, considering local and regional particularities.

Resumo A leishmaniose cutânea (CL) é uma doença tropical negligenciada, com ampla distribuição nas Américas. O Brasil é um país endêmico e apresenta casos em todos os estados. Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a ocorrência, os fatores clínicos e epidemiológicos subjacentes e a correlação de variáveis climáticas com a frequência de casos de CL notificados no município de Caxias, estado do Maranhão, Brasil. Este é um estudo epidemiológico retrospectivo e descritivo, com base em dados extraídos da Notificação do Sistema Brasileiro de Informação de Doenças, de 2007 a 2017. Dados máximos e mínimos de temperatura, precipitação e umidade relativa do ar foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Foram analisados 201 casos de CL autóctones relatados. A predominância de casos foi observada no sexo masculino (70,1%). A faixa etária entre 31 e 60 anos foi a mais afetada, com 96 casos (47,9%). Do número total de casos registrados, 38,8% dos indivíduos afetados estavam envolvidos em atividades relacionadas à agricultura. A distribuição georreferenciada revelou a heterogeneidade da ocorrência da doença, com casos concentrados nas regiões oeste e sul do município. Foi detectada associação entre a umidade relativa do ar (média mensal) e o número de casos de CL por mês (p = 0,04). O CL continua sendo uma questão preocupante de saúde pública em Caxias. Nesse contexto, há uma necessidade premente de fortalecer medidas de prevenção e controle da doença por meio da rede de serviços de saúde do município, considerando as particularidades locais e regionais.

No Effects of Meteorological Factors on the SARS-CoV-2 Infection Fatality Rate / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors may increase COVID-19 mortality, likely due to the increased transmission of the virus. However, this could also be related to an increased infection fatality rate (IFR). We investigated the association between meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud coverage) and IFR across Spanish provinces ( @*Methods@#We estimated IFR as excess deaths (the gap between observed and expected deaths, considering COVID-19-unrelated deaths prevented by lockdown measures) divided by the number of infections (SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals plus excess deaths) and conducted Spearman correlations between meteorological factors and IFR across the provinces.@*Results@#We estimated 2,418,250 infections and 43,237 deaths. The IFR was 0.03% in < 50-year-old, 0.22% in 50-59-year-old, 0.9% in 60-69-year-old, 3.3% in 70-79-year-old, 12.6% in 80-89-year-old, and 26.5% in ≥ 90-year-old. We did not find statistically significant relationships between meteorological factors and adjusted IFR. However, we found strong relationships between low temperature and unadjusted IFR, likely due to Spain's colder provinces' aging population.@*Conclusion@#The association between meteorological factors and adjusted COVID-19 IFR is unclear. Neglecting age differences or ignoring COVID-19-unrelated deaths may severely bias COVID-19 epidemiological analyses.

Relationship between meteorological parameters and some intestinal infectious diseases / Монголын Анагаах Ухаан

Introduction@#Mongolia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographical location, climate conditions, level of development and lifestyle of the population.</br> The “Impact of Climate Change on Drinking Water, Health and Adaptability” study report has shown that climate change is affecting the quality and composition of drinking water, drying up many rivers and lakes and reducing groundwater levels.</br> There was a strong positive correlation between precipitation and air temperature and dysentery, diarrhea and salmonellosis, while there was a strong negative correlation between precipitation, air temperature and viral hepatitis. @*Goal@#The goal of the study was to reveal correlation between meteorology parameters and some intestinal infectious diseases and human health in Mongolia.@*Material and Methods@#We evaluated climate and certain morbidity (intestinal infections) indicators for the last 15 years (2005-2019) using descriptive survey methods. The methodology of the survey has developed and discussed at the Scientific Council meeting of NCPH, 12th of Oct, 2020. The methodology of the survey has developed and discussed at Medical Ethics Reviews Committee of MOH on 23rd. of June, 2021.@*Results@#On the other hand, the average air temperature has intensively risen for the last three decades since 1990 with the warmest average temperature between 2001-2010, whereas the coldest average temperature has been observed between 1951-1960. In 2005-2009, the prevalence of intestinal infections per 10.000 population was 0.8 cases of salmonellosis, 11.2 cases of dysentery, 0.2 cases of diarrhea, and 39.0 instances of hepatitis A. Throughout 2015 and 2019, the prevalence of salmonellosis fell by 0.1 per 10.000 population, dysentery by 2.9, diarrhea by 0.1, and hepatitis A by 0.1.@*Conclusion@#A seasonal trend in intestinal infections was observed (p<0.001). Strong positive correlation was found between high temperature and some intestinal infections (hepatitis А, dysentery, salmonellosis) respectively.

Influência do clima na ocorrência de dengue em um município brasileiro de tríplice fronteira / Influencia del clima sobre la incidencia del dengue en un municipio brasileño de la triple frontera / Influence of the weather on the occurrence of dengue in a triple-border brazilian municipality

RESUMO Objetivo analisar a evolução temporal da incidência da dengue e sua correlação com variáveis climáticas em Foz do Iguaçu, um município brasileiro de tríplice fronteira, no período de agosto de 2006 a julho de 2016 Método estudo descritivo e analítico, realizado em 2018. Foram utilizados dados secundários obtidos dos sistemas de informações em saúde. Utilizou-se análise temporal e foi aplicado teste de regressão linear simples para avaliar a correlação entre as taxas de incidência da dengue e as variáveis climáticas Resultados os anos epidêmicos representaram 60% do período estudado. Ocorreu correlação positiva da incidência de dengue com a média da umidade relativa do ar (r=0,276; p=0,025), média da temperatura (até dois meses antes r=0,288; p=0,014) e pluviosidade (até três meses antes r=0,308; p=0,008) Conclusão as variáveis climáticas identificadas com relação positiva podem subsidiar a previsão e controle da epidemia de dengue

RESUMEN Objetivo analizar la evolución en el tiempo de la incidencia del dengue y su correlación con variables climáticas en Foz do Iguaçu, un municipio brasileño de la triple frontera, durante el período de agosto de 2006 a julio de 2016 Método estudio descriptivo y analítico realizado en el año 2018. Se utilizaron datos secundarios obtenidos de los sistemas de datos de salud. Se empleó análisis temporal y se aplicó la prueba de regresión lineal simple para evaluar la correlación entre los índices de incidencia del dengue y las variables climáticas Resultados los años epidémicos representaron el 60% del período estudiado. Se registró una correlación positiva entre la incidencia del dengue y la humedad relativa del aire media (r=0,276; p=0,025), la temperatura media (hasta dos meses antes r=0,288; p=0,014) y la pluviosidad (hasta tres meses antes r=0,308; p=0,008) Conclusión las variables climáticas identificadas con una relación positiva pueden servir de soporte para predecir y controlar epidemias de dengue

ABSTRACT Objective to analyze the temporal evolution of the incidence of dengue and its correlation with climatic variables in Foz do Iguaçu, a triple-border Brazilian municipality, in the period from August 2006 to July 2016 Method a descriptive and analytical study conducted in 2018. Secondary data obtained from the health information systems were used. Time analysis was employed and a simple linear regression test was applied to assess the correlation between the dengue incidence rates and the climatic variables Results the epidemic years represented 60% of the period studied. There was a positive correlation between incidence of dengue and mean relative humidity in the air (r=0.276; p=0.025), mean temperature (up to two months before r=0.288; p=0.014) and pluviosity (up to three months before r=0.308; p=0.008) Conclusion the climatic variables identified as with a positive relationship can support prediction and control of the dengue epidemic

Influence of Weather Parameters on Foliar Diseases of Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) in Coastal Ecosystem of West Bengal, India

Sesame is one of the most important oilseed crops in India due to mainly its high quality seed oil and antioxidant properties. Occurrence of foliar diseases, like Alternaria leaf spot and Cercospora leaf spot has become a major constraint in recent years for successful and profitable cultivation of sesame. Field experiments were conducted with sesame var. savitri in a factorial randomized block design with three different dates of sowing with 15 days interval and two different plant protection situations (Protected i.e., treated with disease control protocols and unprotected i.e., control), replicated four times, during two consecutive summer seasons of 2018 and 2019 at Agricultural Experimental Farm, Institute of Agricultural Science, University of Calcutta, Baruipur, South 24 Parganas. The diseases incidence was estimated and correlated with the weather parameters. The average of weather parameters viz., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity (morning), relative humidity (evening) and rainfall prior to seven days of disease appearance were considered for study the correlation between the weather factors and the disease. In 2018, disease incidences of the plants shown at third date of sowing (26th April, 2018) in both the protected and unprotected plots had significant (P=.05) but negative correlation with maximum temperature. For plants sown at first date of sowing (27th March, 2018) in 2018 had disease incidences significantly (P=.05) and positively correlated with minimum temperature. However, in 2019, except for the relation between disease incidences in the unprotected plots and maximum temperature, all other disease-temperature correlations were non-significant. Disease incidences were positively and significantly correlated with relative humidity (both morning and evening) in all dates of sowing irrespective of experimental years, except with morning relative humidity at first date of sowing in first year. Total rainfall was positively and significantly correlated with disease incidences at all dates of sowing in 2018; however, such relation was non-significant in 2019.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on UK Potato Production

This study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on potato production in the United Kingdom. Climate change actions are becoming a nightmare for growers worldwide, and the British potato industry is not an exception. Extreme weather conditions were experienced in 2006, 2012, and 2018, respectively. Thus, this study identified the future climate risk associated with major potato producing regions in the UK using the recent climate projection weather data (UKCP18) based on RCP 8.5. In total, the study considered seven (7) regions with a minimum average of 3000 hectares of potato planted area in the past five years. Findings showed that drought, high temperatures, and prolonged precipitation caused significant yield and quality loss in the past, with a likelihood of causing a more harmful impact in the future. The analysis revealed a hotter (Tmax ≥ 25°C, Tmin ≥ 15°C) and drier (1-1.5 mm day-1) summer most especially in the EE, EM, SW, WM, and YH as well as a warmer (Tmax& Tmin 6-10°C) and wetter winter (5 mm day-1 on average) in Scotland and North West England respectively. Future climate is predicted to hinder land preparation and harvesting operation in the Northern regions while the EE, EM, SW, WM, and YH would be faced with drought, with irrigation and water demand increasing by 20-30% as evapotranspiration also increases by 20-30% in 2050-2080. Irrigated potatoes are predicted to double its current spatial coverage in the future. The study identified suitable adaptation measures and strategies required to reduce the impacts of climate change on the British potato industry.

Accuracy of air temperature forecasts and its use for prediction of the reference evapotranspiration / Acurácia das previsões da temperatura do ar e uso na estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência

The objective of this study was to verify the quality of the short-term forecasts made by some web sites, as well as the potential of its use in estimating reference evapotranspiration (ETo). For the period 2012-2013, every 4-days, the maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature forecasts for horizons of 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours provided by public sites for Uberlandia-MG were collected and used for calculating the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) calibrated equation. The sites www.accuweather.com (WEATHER); www.cemig.com.br (CEMIG); jornaldotempo.uol.com.br; (JORNAL) and www.climatempo.com.br (CLIMA) were evaluated. For the same period, the meteorological data were taken at the National Institute of Meteorology (www.inmet.gov.br). The performance of the Tmax and Tmin forecasts as well as the ETo estimates were made by regression analysis, the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-test. For all sites, there was a better performance in the prediction of Tmin when compared to Tmax, especially by a reduction in errors (MBE and RMSE) and an increase in coefficients b and R2. For ETo, the site CLIMA had lowest MBE and RMSE (0.9 mm d-1) following by the WEATHER and JORNAL. On the other hand, the site CEMIG presented higher values for MBE (-1.3 mm d-1) and RMSE (1.6 mm d-1). There was no worsening with an increase of the forecast horizon in these indices, except for R² values. The site CLIMA was the only one that did not differ significantly from the ETo values observed. The results of diagnostic verification procedures indicate the potential use of air temperature forecasts in irrigation management.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a qualidade das previsões de curto prazo feitas por alguns endereços eletrônicos da internet, bem como a potencialidade de seu uso na estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência (ETo). No período de 2012 a 2013, a cada quatro dias, foram coletadas as previsões de 24,48,72 e 96 de horizonte, da temperatura máxima (Tmax) e mínima (Tmin) do ar de quatro endereços eletrônicos para a cidade de Uberlândia, MG. Os dados previstos de temperatura, foram utilizados na equação calibrada do modelo de Hargreaves-Samani (HS) para a obtenção da estimativa da ETo. Os endereços avaliados foram: www.accuweather.com (WEATHER); www.cemig.com.br (CEMIG); jornaldotempo.uol.com.br; (JORNAL) e www.climatempo.com.br (CLIMA). No mesmo período, dados meteorológicos da cidade foram obtidos junto ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (www.inmet.gov.br). A performance das previsões da temperatura e estimativas de ETo foram feitas por meio da análise de regressão, erro médio (EM), raiz quadrada do quadrado médio do erro (RQME) e pelo teste-t. Para todos os endereços, houve uma melhor performance na previsão da Tmin em relação a Tmax, especialmente pela redução dos erros (ME e RQME) e aumento nos coeficientes b e R2. Para ETo, o endereço CLIMA obteve os menores valores de EM e RQME (0,9 mm d-1) seguido do endereço WEATHER e JORNAL. Por outro lado, o endereço CEMIG apresentou os maiores valores para EM (-1,3 mm d-1) e RQME (1,6 mm d-1). Não houve piora na estimativa com aumento do horizonte de previsão nesses índices, exceto para R2. O endereço CLIMA foi o único que não diferiu significativamente dos valores de ETo observados. Os resultados de verificação indicam potencial uso das previsões para o manejo da irrigação.

Correlation between weather, population size and COVID-19 pandemic: a study of Brazilian capitals / Correlação entre clima, tamanho da população e pandemia da COVID-19: um estudo das capitais brasileiras

Objective: To analyze the correlation between weather, population size and cases of COVID-19 in the capitals of Brazil. Methods: All confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection, from the first confirmed case from February 26 until May 01, 2020 were included. For weather variables, average temperature (°C), dew point (°C), average humidity (%) and wind speed (m s-1) were extracted from the Instituto de Meteorologia database. The population size of each capital was used as a control variable, with data obtained from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Spearman rank correlation tests were utilized to examine the correlation between variables. Results: The analysis showed a significant and strong positive correlation between the total cases of COVID-19 and the population size (p<0,01). There was a significant positive correlation with the average humidity of the air and cumulative cases (p<0,05). There was no significant correlation with other climate variables. Conclusion: Our results confront some expectations commented around the world about a possible seasonality of COVID-19 during periods of low humidity and can assist government and health authorities in decision making to control the pandemic. Studies in other regions are important to strengthen the findings.

Objetivo: Analisar a correlação entre clima, tamanho da população e casos de COVID-19 nas capitais do Brasil. Métodos: Foram incluídos todos os casos confirmados de infecção por COVID-19, do primeiro caso confirmado de 26 de fevereiro a 01 de maio de 2020. Para variáveis meteorológicas, temperatura média (° C), ponto de orvalho (° C), umidade média (%) e velocidade do vento (m s-1) foram extraídos da base de dados do Instituto de Meteorologia. O tamanho da população de cada capital foi utilizado como variável de controle, com dados obtidos no Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Correlação de Spearman foi utilizado para verificar a correlação entre variáveis. Resultados: A análise mostrou uma correlação positiva significativa e forte entre o total de casos de COVID-19 e o tamanho da população (p <0,01). Houve correlação positiva significativa com a umidade média do ar e os casos acumulados (p <0,05). Não houve correlação significativa com outras variáveis climáticas. Conclusão: Os resultados confrontam algumas expectativas comentadas em todo o mundo sobre uma possível sazonalidade do COVID-19 durante períodos de baixa umidade e podem auxiliar autoridades governamentais e de saúde na tomada de decisões para controlar a pandemia. Estudos em outras regiões são importantes para fortalecer os resultados.

Influence of weather parameters on Aphis craccivora and Bean common mosaic virus disease incidence in Vigna unguiculata L. Walp

Aim: Many crop modelling and climate simulation studies have reported variability in pest and pathogen distribution as well as their interaction with host. These prediction encourages to revisit the pest and pathogen epidemological and distribution studies in light of changing climate. In line with above assumption, the present field study was carried out to study the population dynamics of cowpea aphid (Aphis craccivora) and its influence on BCMV disease incidence. Methodology: In this field experiment, A. craccivora population and BCMV disease incidence data were collected in different standard meteorological weeks of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Impact of weather parameters on A. craccivora and BCMV disease incidence was statistically analyzed. Results: The significant change in A. craccivora population and BCMV disease incidence was documented during the study. The maximum aphid population was observed during rabi season and less was observed in kharif and summer season. Whereas, incidence of BCMV was recorded maximum in rabi season. Correlation analysis affirmed, minimum temperature (Tmin) and rainfall had negative impact on A. craccivora whereas weather parameters had non-significant impact on BCMV disease incidence. The regression models developed from the present study explained 41.4 % to 78.8 % and 18.5 % to 46.1% variability (R2) of aphid population and BCMV incidence, respectively. Interpretation: The weather parameters had more impact on A. craccivora population than BCMV disease incidence and merely presence of maximum number of A. craccivora was not a deciding factor for outbreak of virus disease incidence.

Bioclimatic zoning and trend analysis applied to broilers / Zoneamento bioclimático e análise de tendência aplicados a frangos de corte

The objective of the present study was to establish the bioclimatic zoning by the temperature and humidity index (THI), considering a historical period and a future scenario, in order to represent the thermal environment for broiler breeding in the State of Minas Gerais. A historical series (1976 - 2014) of THI minimum, average and maximum calculated based on data from 48 conventional meteorological stations was used, belonging to the National Institute of Meteorology of the State of Minas Gerais. The analysis of the temporal series was based on the Mann-Kendall test and linear regression. A geostatistical analysis was also carried out to determine the comfort zoning of broilers as a function of the THI intervals. In this way, the THI spatial mapping methodologies and trend analysis for the prediction of a possible future climate scenario can help in the development of risk maps for monitoring thermal comfort of broilers, being indispensable in the planning of actions for the mitigation of the climatic change impacts on the productive chain of the State of Minas Gerais.(AU)

O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estabelecer o zoneamento bioclimático por meio do índice de temperatura e umidade (ITU), considerando-se um período histórico e um cenário futuro, de forma a representar o ambiente térmico para criação de frangos de corte no estado de Minas Gerais. Foi utilizada uma série histórica (1976 - 2014) de ITU mínimo, médio e máximo, que foram calculados com base em dados oriundos de 48 estações meteorológicas convencionais, pertencentes ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia do Estado de Minas Gerais. A análise da série temporal se baseou no teste de Mann-Kendall e na regressão linear. Procedeu-se, também, à análise geoestatística para determinação do zoneamento do conforto de frangos de corte segundo os intervalos de ITU. Dessa forma, as metodologias de mapeamento espacial do ITU e a análise de tendência para predição de um possível cenário climático futuro podem auxiliar no desenvolvimento de mapas de risco para o monitoramento do conforto térmico de frangos de corte, sendo indispensáveis no planejamento de ações para mitigação dos impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a cadeia produtiva do estado de Minas Gerais.(AU)

Effect of seasonal conditions and milk management practices on bulk milk quality in Minas Gerais State - Brazil / Efeito da sazonalidade e práticas de manejo na qualidade do leite de tanque no estado de Minas Gerais - Brasil

The influence of seasonality and the training and implementation of good dairy farming practices on raw milk production and quality was evaluated on dairy farms in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The physico-chemical composition, somatic cell count (SCC) and total bacterial count (TBC) were determined in 3,096 milk samples collected from bulk tanks originated from 43 dairy farms over a three-year period and correlated with key climatic factors. The recommended milking management practices were applied through a training program and correlated with the seasonal data in three stages: I) prior to training (dry period); II) 48 days after the training (transition period); III) 96 days after the training (rainy period). In the first stage, a diagnosis of the situation was performed with raw milk samplings for laboratory analysis, and training for implementation of good milking practices. In stages II and II, the checklist and laboratory analysis were also performed. The rainfall and high temperatures were found to represent the main factors affecting the milk composition and production, and TBC. The composition and physical properties of raw milk, and the TBC and SCC parameters can be controlled or minimized by applying proper milking management practices and constant monitoring.(AU)

Avaliou-se a influência das condições climáticas em regiões tropicais, bem como do treinamento e da implementação de boas práticas de manejo na produção e qualidade do leite em distintos períodos em fazendas leiteiras no estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil. No presente estudo, as características físico-químicas do leite, a contagem bacteriana total (CBT) e a contagem de células somáticas (CCS) foram determinadas em 3.096 amostras de tanques de leite proveniente de 43 fazendas leiteiras, durante um período de três anos, e correlacionadas com os principais fatores climáticos (temperatura diária do ar mínima, média e máxima; pluviosidade e umidade relativa). Foram avaliados os resultados obtidos nas análises das amostras de leite cru coletadas no ano anterior (2009/2010) e também no posterior (2011/2012) àquele em que foi realizado o treinamento para implementação das boas práticas de manejo de ordenha (2010/2011), compreendendo três etapas: antes do treinamento (período seco - tempo 0, etapa I), 48 dias após o treinamento (período de transição - etapa II) e 96 dias após o treinamento (período chuvoso - etapa III). Na etapa I foi realizado um diagnóstico de situação com coleta de amostras para análises laboratoriais, aplicação da lista de verificação padronizada e treinamento para a implementação das boas práticas de manejo de ordenha; na etapa II foram realizadas novas análises laboratoriais e reaplicação da lista de verificação para avaliar a eficiência do treinamento; e na etapa III foi realizada a repetição da etapa II. Com base no histórico dos três anos, observou-se que condições climáticas de alta temperatura e pluviosidade representam importantes fatores que afetam a composição do leite e o volume produzido, assim como parâmetros higiênico-sanitários do leite. Ademais, as boas condições de manejo são ferramentas úteis, eficazes, práticas e essenciais para a maior produção de leite com qualidade, desde que constantemente monitoradas.(AU)

Weather based prediction model for beet armyworm (Spodoptera exigua Hubner) in chickpea

Aim: The study aimed to develop and validate weather based prediction model for beet armyworm (Spodoptera exigua) population in chickpea through adult catches in pheromone traps. Methodology: The data on adult trap catches of S. exigua were recorded daily and weekly means were computed. Log transformed trap catches data were used for correlation with weather parameters of current week, 1-lag, 2-lag and 3-lag weeks. Thereafter, multiple-linear regression analysis was done and a model was developed. The prediction model of S. exigua was validated with the appropriate statistical tools. Results: Peak incidence of S. exigua was recorded during 45th standard meteorological week (SMW) with 15.6 moths per trap per week. Amongst current, 1-lag, 2-lag and 3-lag week weather parameters, the male moth population had significant positive correlation with maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), and negative correlation with morning relative humidity (RH1) of 2-lag week. The sunshine hours/day (SSH) of current week had a significant negative association with S. exigua male moth catches, while the soil temperature (ST) of 2-lag week had highest positive correlation with trap catches. Regression equation was computed by regressing male moth catches of S. exigua against weather data of weeks with highest correlation coefficient. Interpretation: Often, pest-weather models are developed based on current week weather factors. However, it has been witnessed in this study that weather of preceding weeks (up to 3-lag) may also influence the pest population, and thus it needs to be considered for proper understanding of pest dynamics