Value of serum procalcitonin and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score on predicting the prognosis of sepsis in elderly patients / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To explore the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score on predicting prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis.Methods:A retrospective cohort study, patients with sepsis who admitted to the department of emergency and the department of geriatric medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from March 2020 to June 2021 were enrolled. Patients' demographics, routine laboratory examinations, APACHE Ⅱ score that within 24 hours of admission were obtained from their electronic medical records. The prognosis during the hospitalization and one year after discharge were collected, retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors were performed. And Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to examine overall survival.Results:A total of 116 elderly patients met inclusion criteria, 55 were alive and 61 were died. On univariate analysis, clinical variables such as lactic acid [Lac, hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.07-1.26, P < 0.001], PCT ( HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 1.01-1.04, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase (ALT, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.143), aspartate aminotransferase (AST, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.01, P = 0.014), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P < 0.001), hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.001), creatine kinase (CK, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.002), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB, HR = 1.01, 95% CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001), Na ( HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.183), blood urea nitrogen (BUN, HR = 1.02, 95% CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.139), fibrinogen (FIB, HR = 0.85, 95% CI was 0.71-1.02, P = 0.078), neutrophil ratio (NEU%, HR = 0.99, 95% CI was 0.97-1.00, P = 0.114), platelet count (PLT, HR = 1.00, 95% CI was 0.99-1.00, P = 0.108) and total bile acid (TBA, HR = 1.01, 95% CI was 1.00-1.02, P = 0.096) shown to be associated with poor prognosis. On multivariable analysis, level of PCT was an important factor influencing the outcome of sepsis ( HR = 1.03, 95% CI was 1.01-1.05, P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that there was no significant difference with respect to the overall survival between the two groups, with patients of PCT ≤ 0.25 μg/L and PCT > 0.25 μg/L ( P = 0.220). It also showed that the overall survival rate in patients with high APACHE Ⅱ score (> 27 points) was significantly lower than that in patients with low APACHE Ⅱ score (≤ 27 points, P = 0.015). Conclusion:Serum PCT level is valuable prognostic factors of elderly patients with sepsis, and higher APACHE Ⅱ score (> 27 points) indicates a poor prognosis.

Application and prospect of neonatal critical illness score in China / 中国小儿急救医学

Neonatal critical illness score(NCIS) has been published for over 20 years in China and has played an active role in critical neonatal transport, illness severity assessment, and prognosis evaluation.However, there are still some limitations in the scoring system with the development of medical technology, such as failure to include crucial perinatal information, unable to quantify single indicators, difficulty in obtaining PaO 2 without oxygen inhalation, complex evaluation indicators, long evaluation time and data was difficult for scientific research, etc.Therefore, it is necessary to update and simplify it for the clinical treatment and scientific study of critically ill newborns.This review summarized NCIS application in China and compared it with foreign neonatal critical scores such as score for neonatal acute physiology, clinical risk index for babies, etc.Combined with the rising technology of artificial intelligence and deep learning in recent years, it was more straightforward and optimized to enhance its accuracy and applicability, which was aimed to play a more active role in the treatment of critical newborns and scientific research.

A clinical research on relationship between sepsis-induced coagulopathy and prognosis in patients with sepsis / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To evaluate the prognostic value of sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) in patients with sepsis.Methods:From January 2019 to December 2021, patients with sepsis admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of our hospital were retrospectively classified into the SIC group and non-SIC group according to SIC diagnostic criteria. The baseline clinical data, severity score, total length of hospital stay, length of ICU stay and 28-day survival were compared between the two groups. Kaplan-Meier was used to compare the 28-day survival of patients with sepsis between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard regression model was employed to analyze the risk factors of prognosis in patients with sepsis.Results:Totally 274 patients with sepsis were included in the analysis, including 139 patients in the SIC group and 135 patients in the non-SIC group. The two groups were compared in the perspectives of the Platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT) , procalcitonin (PCT), D dimer, hematocrit, red blood cell distribution width, hemoglobin, acute kidney injury (AKI), the use of continuous renal replacement treatment (CRRT), the use of vasoactive drugs, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHEⅡ) score were compared between the two groups and the difference were statistically different (all P<0.05). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the 28-day mortality rate in the SIC group was significantly higher than that in the non-SIC group (32.4% vs. 14.1%, P<0.05). COX proportional hazard model showed that SIC score ( HR= 2.17, 95% CI: 1.15-3.91, P<0.05), APACHEⅡ score ( HR= 1.13, 95% CI: 1.09-1.17, P<0.05) and the use of vasoactive drugs ( HR=3.66, 95% CI: 1.53-8.75, P<0.05) were independent influencing factors for 28-day death in patients with sepsis. Conclusions:Patients with sepsis and SIC have more severe disease and increased mortality risk. SIC score exhibits good clinical value in predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis.

Application and research progress of SNAP-Ⅱ, SNAPPE-Ⅱ and NCIS / 国际儿科学杂志

The neonatal critical illness scoring system is widely used to assess the severity of neonatal disease, serious complications, neonatal mortality risk, long-term prognosis, and guide transport.At present, the scores widely used at home and abroad include clinical risk index for babies(CRIB), clinical risk index for babies Ⅱ(CRIB-Ⅱ), score for neonatal acute physiology(SNAP), score for neonatal acute physiology Ⅱ(SNAP-Ⅱ), score for neonatal acute physiology, perinatal extension, version Ⅱ(SNAPPE-Ⅱ), and neonatal critical illness score(NCIS), etc.Although there are many neonatal critical illness scoring systems, there is no recognized and ideal score, the most suitable score for assessing the severity of neonatal disease.This paper reviews the application and research progress of the three scoring systems SNAP-Ⅱ, SNAPPE-Ⅱ and NCIS.

Comparing the Prognosticative Value of APACHE II and mSOFA Scores in Critically Ill Patients: A Prospective Study

Objective: Several predictive scoring systems measuring disease severity are used to predict outcomes, typically mortality, of critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Two common validated predictive scoring systems include acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and modified sequential organ failure assessment score (mSOFA). To compare performance of APACHE II and mSOFA score in critically ill patients regarding the outcomes in the form of morbidity and mortality in ICU. Methods: This prospective observational clinical study was conducted on 100 patients over 6 months. For each patient, APACHE II score on day of admission and serial mSOFA scores on day 0, 3, 7 and 10 were calculated and compared. Results: The age of the non-survivors was significantly older than survivors was (57.1±11.76 and 54.28±15.16). [In our study we found that the mean length of ICU stay of non-survivors was (5.41±4.81) & survivors(8.63± 4.81) days.] In our study mortality rate was 40%.The APACHE II score with cut-off point of 23 demonstrated a sensitivity rate of 98.33% & specificity rate of 17.5%, accuracy of 66.00%. Serial mSOFA scores with cut-off of 11 on day0, day3, day7 better differentiated survivors from non-survivors with 98.3% sensitivity, 27.5% specificity and 70% accuracy. Conclusion: Both APACHE II and mSOFA scores can help ICU physicians as a significant predictive marker for mortality in critically ill patients. The serial measurement of mSOFA score in the first week is a better mortality predictor tool than APACHE II score in critically ill patients.

Obesidad como factor pronóstico en el paciente crítico / Obesity as a prognostic factor in the critical ill patients / Obesidade como fator prognóstico no paciente crítico

Resumen: Introducción: La obesidad es una enfermedad con impacto negativo en la sobrevida; se hace referencia al término «paradoja de la obesidad¼ utilizado como un efecto protector en la mortalidad. Objetivo: Determinar si la obesidad es un factor de protección en el paciente crítico. Material y métodos: Se realizó un estudio de cohorte. Se obtuvo información de expedientes de Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) del Hospital Regional Monterrey del Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales para los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE) Monterrey durante 2018. Se hizo análisis bivariado para asociación χ2 y U de Mann-Whitney para correlación fórmula de Pearson y análisis de supervivencia con curva de Kaplan-Meier. Resultados: Se analizaron 151 expedientes de pacientes, 73 obesos y 78 no obesos, se observó que la obesidad es un factor protector para mortalidad (p = 0.044, OR 0.431 (IC 0.187-0.992). El IMC no se correlaciona con el Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II (p = 0.066); sin embargo, con un impacto en la curva de supervivencia (p = 0.42). Conclusiones: Se detecta la obesidad como factor protector; sin embargo, su asociación con enfermedades crónicas degenerativas, estancia prolongada en UCI y sus complicaciones no dejan de tener impacto negativo en la supervivencia fuera de la unidad.

Abstract: Introduction: Obesity is a disease with a negative impact on survival; the prognosis of these patients is has controversial results. The term «obesity paradox¼ refers as a protective effect on mortality. Objective: To determine whether obesity is a protective factor in the critically ill patient. Material y methods: A cohort study was conducted. Data was obtained from ICU records of the ISSSTE Monterrey Regional Hospital during 2018, bivariate analysis was performed for χ2 and Mann Whitney's U association, for Pearson's formula correlation and survival analysis with Kaplan-Meier curve. Results: 151 records of 73 obese and 78 non-obese patients were analyzed, it was observed that obesity is a protective factor for mortality (p = 0.044, OR 0.431(IC 0.187-0.992), BMI does not correlate with APACHE II (p = 0.066), however, an impact on the survival curve was observed (p = 0.42). Conclusions: According to the results obtained, it matches with the term «obesity paradox¼, however, its association with chronic degenerative diseases, prolonged stay in the ICU and its complications do not cease to have a negative impact on survival outside the unit.

Resumo: Introdução: A obesidade é uma doença com impacto negativo na sobrevida; O termo «paradoxo da obesidade¼ refere-se a um efeito protetor sobre a mortalidade. Objetivo: Determinar se a obesidade é um fator protetor em pacientes críticos. Material e métodos: Foi realizado um estudo de coorte. As informações foram obtidas dos registros da UTI do ISSSTE Monterrey Regional Hospital durante o ano de 2018, foi realizada análise bivariada para associação χ2 eU Mann-Whitney, para correlação da fórmula de Pearson e análise de sobrevida com curva de Kaplan-Meier. Resultados: Foram analisados 151 prontuários de 73 pacientes obesos e 78 não obesos, observou-se que a obesidade é fator protetor para mortalidade (p = 0.044, OR 0.431(IC 0.187-0.992), IMC não se correlaciona com APACHE II (p = 0.066), porém, com impacto na curva de sobrevida (p = 0.42). Conclusões: A obesidade é encontrada como fator de proteção, porém, sua associação com doenças crônico-degenerativas, permanência prolongada na UTI e suas complicações não deixam de ter impacto negativo na sobrevida fora da unidade.

Research progress on liver transplantation for drug-induced liver injury / 器官移植

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a type of necrotizing and inflammatory liver disease caused by certain commonly-used drugs, Chinese herbal medicines or dietary supplements. In severe cases, it may lead to acute liver failure. Without liver transplantation, the fatality could reach up to 80%. It is of significance to master the indications of liver transplantation. Several prognostic scoring systems have been developed to help clinicians to decide which patients need urgent liver transplantation, such as King's College criteria (KCC) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring systems. However, these scoring methods have been developed for a long period of time and lack of modifications. Therefore, scholars have proposed several new scoring systems, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring systems, which provide novel ideas for the evaluation of liver transplantation. As an important treatment measure for drug-induced acute liver failure, urgent liver transplantation has greatly improved the survival rate of patients. In this article, the classification, clinical diagnosis, liver transplantation evaluation and prognosis of DILI were summarized, aiming to provide reference for the treatment of DILI by liver transplantation.

A comparison of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score and the trauma-injury severity score for outcome assessment in intensive care unit trauma patients: a meta-analysis / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To assess the ability of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) and trauma-injury severity score (TRISS) in predicting mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients.Methods:Databases of PubMed, Cochrane Library, SinoMed, CNKI were retrieved from January 1980 to December 2020. The ability of the APACHE Ⅱ and the TRISS to predict mortality in the ICU trauma patients was compared in the retrieval literatures. The relevant literatures were screened by two researchers independently. The data of the included literatures were extracted, and the quality of the included literatures was evaluated. MetaDiSc 1.4 software was used to test the heterogeneity among studies. Meta-analysis was performed on diagnostic accuracy indicators and the summary receiver operator characteristics curve (SROC curve) was fitted. The area under SROC curve (AUC) of the two scores was compared. Deek test was used to analyze literature publication bias.Results:Six studies were selected with 4 054 patients involved with medium and high quality. Meta-analysis results showed that APACHE Ⅱ and TRISS had low sensitivity [the pooled sensitivity and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.48 (0.41-0.55) and 0.51 (0.41-0.62)], high specificity [the pooled specificity and 95% CI was 0.96 (0.93-0.97) and 0.98 (0.95-0.99)], the pooled diagnostic odds ratio ( DOR) and 95% CI was 20 (14-28) and 46 (18-120), and overall good performance in terms of AUC [the AUC and 95% CI was 0.79 (0.75-0.82) and 0.80 (0.76-0.83)] in predicting the prognosis of ICU trauma patients. There was no statistical difference in AUC between the two scores ( Z = 1.542, P > 0.05). Deek funnel plot showed little publication bias. Conclusion:Both APACHE Ⅱ and TRISS scores could accurately predict mortality in ICU trauma patients.

Predictive value of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk in comprehensive and specialized intensive care unit patients based on MIMIC-Ⅳ database / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To explore the basic characteristics of various types of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and the predictive value of six common disease severity scores in critically ill patients on the first day on the 28-day death risk.Methods:The general information, disease severity scores [acute physiology score Ⅲ (APSⅢ), Oxford acute disease severity (OASIS) score, Logistic organ dysfunction score (LODS), simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ (SAPSⅡ), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score], prognosis and other indicators of critically ill patients admitted from 2008 to 2019 were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ 2.0 (MIMIC-Ⅳ 2.0). The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk of patients in various ICU, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated, the optimal Youden index was used to determine the cut-off value, and the AUC of various ICU was verified by Delong method.Results:A total of 53 150 critically ill patients were enrolled, with medical ICU (MICU) accounted for the most (19.25%, n = 10 233), followed by cardiac vascular ICU (CVICU) with 17.78% ( n = 9 450), and neurological ICU (NICU) accounted for the least (6.25%, n = 3 320). The patients in coronary care unit (CCU) were the oldest [years old: 71.79 (60.27, 82.33)]. The length of ICU stay in NICU was the longest [days: 2.84 (1.51, 5.49)] and accounted for the highest proportion of total length of hospital stay [63.51% (34.61%, 97.07%)]. The patients in comprehensive ICU had the shortest length of ICU stay [days: 1.75 (0.99, 3.05)]. The patients in CVICU had the lowest proportion of length of ICU stay to total length of hospital stay [27.69% (18.68%, 45.18%)]. The six scores within the first day of ICU admission in NICU patients were lower than those in the other ICU, while APSⅢ, LODS, OASIS, and SOFA scores in MICU patients were higher than those in the other ICU. SAPⅡ and SIRS scores were both the highest in CVICU, respectively. In terms of prognosis, MICU patients had the highest 28-day mortality (14.14%, 1 447/10 233), while CVICU patients had the lowest (2.88%, 272/9 450). ROC curve analysis of the predictive value of each score on the 28-day death risk of various ICU patients showed that, the predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in comprehensive ICU were higher [AUC and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.82 (0.81-0.84), and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in surgical ICU (SICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.80 (0.79-0.82), 0.79 (0.78-0.81), and 0.79 (0.77-0.80), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in MICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.82 (0.81-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in CCU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.86 (0.85-0.88) and 0.85 (0.83-0.86), respectively]. The predictive value of LODS and SAPSⅡ in trauma ICU (TICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.82-0.83) and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS and SAPSⅡ in NICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.80-0.85) and 0.81 (0.78-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in CVICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.81 (0.80-0.82), and 0.78 (0.77-0.78), respectively]. Conclusions:For the patients in comprehensive ICU, MICU, CCU, and CVICU, APSⅢ or SAPSⅡ can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For the patients in SICU and NICU, OASIS or SAPSⅡ can be applied to predict 28-day death risk. For the patients in TICU, SAPSⅡ or LODS can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For CVICU patients, APSⅢ or LODS can be applied to predict 28-day death risk.

Predictive value of APACHEⅡ score combined with systematic inflammation markers on outcome in patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To investigate the clinical significance of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) combined with different systematic inflammation markers (SIMs) including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR)-in adult patients with venous-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO).Methods:A total of 89 adult patients with VA-ECMO ( ≥ 3 d) in the Emergency Department of Jiangsu Provincial People's Hospital from January 2017 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: survivors ( n=39) and non-survivors ( n=50). The baseline APACHE Ⅱscore and PLR, NLR, LMR before ECMO implantation and at 1, 2, 3 day after ECMO were recorded. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of 28-day mortality in patients with VA-ECMO. The utility of APACHEⅡ score and SIMs alone or combination for predicting clinical prognosis was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The patients were divided into the high risk group and the low risk group according to the best cut-off value, and the difference of ECMO-related complications between the two groups was compared. Results:When combined APACHEⅡ score with SIMs, APACHEⅡ + PLR 48 h + LMR 24 h + LMR 72 h demonstrated the greatest predictive ability with an AUC of 0.833. Compared with the high-risk group, the low-risk group has a lower incidence of acute renal injury, infection, bleeding complications, the use of continuous renal replacement therapy, mechanical ventilation, and a higher hospital survival rate.Conclusions:The combination of APACHEⅡ score and SIMs-PLR, LMR- is better than a single one for death prediction, and it is expected to be a new predictive model for early identification of the risk of death or poor prognosis in patients with VA-ECMO.

The value of dynamic changes in hematocrit for early fluid resuscitation and risk of death in septic shock / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To explore the relationship between hematocrit, early fluid therapy, and clinical outcomes in patients with septic shock, and to provide evidence for fluid resuscitation therapy and prognosis assessment in these patients.Methods:The clinical information of patients with septic shock who were diagnosed and treated in the Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020 were collected. Taking the survival or death of patients 28 days after admission as the end point of clinical research, the patients were divided into the survival and death groups. After analyzing the basic data of the two groups, the univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were used to analyze the evaluation value of Δ Hematocrit (HCT) d2-d1 and ΔHCT d3-d1 on the prognosis of patients with septic shock. At the same time, the Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze the overall survival rate of patients with septic shock, and the smooth curve fitting graph was used to verify its relationship with net fluid intake and death. Results:There were 241 cases in the survival group and 67 cases in the death group. Univariate COX analysis showed statistically significant differences between the survival and death groups in acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) ( P=0.0006), red cell volume distribution width (RDW) ( P=0.0043), age ( P=0.0184), ΔHCT d2-d1 ( P=0.0136), ΔHCT d3-d1 ( P=0.0204), and white blood cell (WBC) ( P=0.0444). Multivariate COX analysis showed that ΔHCT d2-d1 ( P=0.0115) and ΔHCT d3-d1 ( P=0.0029) were independent risk factors for death in EICU patients with septic shock. ΔHCT d2-d1 and ΔHCT d3-d1 were divided into three groups according to the three-digit method. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed no significant difference among the three groups in the overall survival rate related to ΔHCT d2-d1 ( P=0.16), but there was a statistically significant difference in the overall survival rate among the three groups related to ΔHCT d3-d1 ( P=0.025). The smooth fitting curve of ΔHCT d3-d1, net fluid intake, and prognosis showed that ΔHCT d3-d1 was negatively correlated with net fluid intake, and the middle ΔHCT d3-d1 group had the best prognosis. Conclusions:The value of ΔHCT d3-d1 is related to the net fluid intake of patients with septic shock. An appropriate decrease in HCT on the third day can improve the prognosis of patients with septic shock. The dynamic changes of hematocrit can provide a certain basis for fluid resuscitation and prognosis evaluation in patients with septic shock.

Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in tsutsugamushi disease complicated with organ function damage / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To explore the predictive value of the serum C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin (ALB) ratio (CAR) for organ damage in tsutsugamushi disease.Methods:The clinical data of 166 patients with tsutsugamushi disease admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into the organ damage group (72 cases) and non-organ damage group (94 cases) according to the organ damage criteria. The general data and laboratory test results of the two groups of patients were compared. The significant indicators of univariate analysis were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to analyze the predictive value of CAR for organ damage in patients with tsutsugamushi disease.Results:There were no significant differences in age, sex, days of fever, and admission body temperature between the organ damage group and non-organ damage group ( P>0.05). However, the body mass index, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), length of hospital stay, hospitalization expense, percentage of neutrophils (NEUT), lymphocyte count, procalcitonin, CRP, and CAR in the organ damage group were significantly higher than those in the non-organ damage group ( P<0.05), and ALB was significantly lower than that in the non-organ damage group ( P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that APACHEⅡ( P=0.039), NEUT ( P=0.003), and CAR ( P=0.011) were independent risk factors for tsutsugamushi disease complicated by organ damage. The ROC curve showed that the AUCs of APACHEⅡ, NEUT, and CAR were 0.655, 0.716, and 0.727, respectively. When the cut-off value of CAR was 2.86, the sensitivity was 55.6%, and the specificity was 79.8%. Conclusions:Elevated CAR is an independent risk factor for tsutsugamushi disease complicated with organ damage and can be used as an important indicator to evaluate the presence or absence of organ damage in patients with tsutsugamushi disease.

Uso do SAPS 3 no escore NUTrition RIsk in the Critically ill modificado tem precisão preditiva comparável ao uso do APACHE II como marcador de gravidade / SAPS 3 in the modified NUTrition RIsk in the Critically ill score has comparable predictive accuracy to APACHE II as a severity marker

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar o Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) como substituto do Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) como marcador de gravidade na versão modificada do escore NUTrition RIsk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC; sem interleucina 6), com base em uma análise de sua capacidade discriminativa para predição de mortalidade hospitalar. Métodos: Este estudo de coorte retrospectiva avaliou 1.516 pacientes adultos internados em uma unidade de terapia intensiva de um hospital geral privado entre abril de 2017 e janeiro de 2018. A avaliação de desempenho incluiu as análises Kappa de Fleiss e correlação de Pearson. A capacidade discriminativa para estimar a mortalidade hospitalar foi avaliada com a curva Característica de Operação do Receptor. Resultados: A amostra foi dividida aleatoriamente em dois terços para o desenvolvimento do modelo (n = 1.025; idade 72 [57 - 83]; 52,4% masculino) e um terço para avaliação do desempenho (n = 490; idade 72 [57 - 83]; 50,8 % masculino). A concordância com o mNUTRIC foi Kappa de 0,563 (p < 0,001), e a correlação entre os instrumentos foi correlação de Pearson de 0,804 (p < 0,001). A ferramenta mostrou bom desempenho para prever a mortalidade hospitalar (área sob a curva de 0,825 [0,787 - 0,863] p < 0,001). Conclusão: A substituição do APACHE II pelo SAPS 3 como marcador de gravidade no escore mNUTRIC mostrou bom desempenho para predizer a mortalidade hospitalar. Esses dados fornecem a primeira evidência sobre a validade da substituição do APACHE II pelo SAPS 3 no mNUTRIC como marcador de gravidade. São necessários estudos multicêntricos e análises adicionais dos parâmetros de adequação nutricional.

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the substitution of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) by Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a severity marker in the modified version of the NUTrition RIsk in the Critically ill score (mNUTRIC); without interleukin 6) based on an analysis of its discriminative ability for in-hospital mortality prediction. Methods: This retrospective cohort study evaluated 1,516 adult patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a private general hospital from April 2017 to January 2018. Performance evaluation included Fleiss' Kappa and Pearson correlation analysis. The discriminative ability for estimating in-hospital mortality was assessed with the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. Results: The sample was randomly divided into two-thirds for model development (n = 1,025; age 72 [57 - 83]; 52.4% male) and one-third for performance evaluation (n = 490; age 72 [57 - 83]; 50.8% male). The agreement with mNUTRIC was Kappa of 0.563 (p < 0.001), and the correlation between the instruments was Pearson correlation of 0.804 (p < 0.001). The tool showed good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality (area under the curve 0.825 [0.787 - 0.863] p < 0.001). Conclusion: The substitution of APACHE II by SAPS 3 as a severity marker in the mNUTRIC score showed good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality. These data provide the first evidence regarding the validity of the substitution of APACHE II by SAPS 3 in the mNUTRIC as a marker of severity. Multicentric studies and additional analyses of nutritional adequacy parameters are required.

Risk factors and their predictive value for intensive care unit acquired weakness in patients with sepsis / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To explore the risk factors of intensive care unit acquired weakness (ICUAW) in patients with sepsis, and to evaluate the predictive value of each risk factor for ICUAW.Methods:A case control study was conducted, 60 septic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Henan Provincial People's Hospital from October 20, 2020 to February 20, 2021 were enrolled. The patients were divided into two groups: sepsis ICUAW group and sepsis non-ICUAW group. The data of gender, age, body mass index (BMI), acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) score, complications, mechanical ventilation, duration of ICUAW, length of stay in ICU, fasting blood glucose, blood lactic acid (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, outcome, antimicrobial agent, glucocorticoid, sedatives and analgesics drugs and vasoactive drugs were collected. Risk factors were screened by univariate Logistic regression analysis, and odds ratio ( OR) was adjusted by multivariate binary logistic regression, P < 0.05 was considered as independent risk factors. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to analyze the predictive value of independent risk factors. Results:The APACHEⅡ score of the sepsis ICUAW group was significantly higher than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group (23.05±8.17 vs. 15.33±4.89, P < 0.05), the total length of stay in the ICU was significantly longer than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group (days: 15.1±9.2 vs. 8.5±3.4, P < 0.05), the improvement rate of patients was significantly lower than that of the sepsis non-ICUAW group [45.0% (9/20) vs. 95.0% (38/40), P < 0.05]. After univariate Logistic regression and multicollinearity test analysis, 7 factors including APACHEⅡ score, average SOFA score, blood lactic acid, proportion of mechanical ventilation, sedatives and analgesics drugs, type of antibiotics and type of vasoactive drugs were included in the binary Logistic regression model [ OR: 1.21, 2.05, 2.26, 0.21, 1.54, 2.07, 1.38, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.09-1.35, 1.42-2.94, 1.12-4.57, 0.05-0.66, 1.03-2.29, 1.27-3.37, 0.96-2.00, all P < 0.05]. Hosmer-Lemchaw test P = 0.901, and the correct percentage of prediction was 85%, indicating good model fit. Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHEⅡ score and average SOFA score were independent risk factors for the occurrence of ICUAW in septic patients (APACHEⅡscore: OR = 1.17, 95% CI was 1.004-1.376, P = 0.044; average SOFA score: OR = 1.86, 95% CI was 1.157-2.981, P = 0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the mean value of APACHEⅡ score, average SOFA score and their combined detection had a certain predictive value for the occurrence of ICUAW in sepsis patients, areas under ROC curve (AUC) were 0.787, 0.881, 0.905, 95% CI was 0.646-0.928, 0.791-0.972, 0.828-0.982, all P < 0.05. When the cut-off value was 19.500, 6.225, 0.375, the sensitivity was 75%, 90%, 90%, and the specificity were 80%, 80%, 85%, respectively. Conclusion:APACHEⅡ score and average SOFA score can be used as independent risk factors for the occurrence of ICUAW in sepsis, and their combined predictive value is better than that of individual index.

Impact and predictive value of time-dependent acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score on death risk in patients with severe stroke: data analysis based on MIMIC-Ⅲ / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To study the influence of time-dependent acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score on 14-day death risk in patients with severe stroke, and to provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment.Methods:Data of 3 229 patients with severe stroke were enrolled from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅲ (MIMIC-Ⅲ). According to the main types of stroke, the patients were divided into subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), ischemic stroke (IS) and other groups. According to age, patients were divided into > 60 years old and ≤ 60 years old subgroups. According to the baseline of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, they were divided into subgroups of > 3 and ≤ 3. The daily measured values of APACHE Ⅱ scores in each patient were recorded. And all-cause death within 14 days after admission to intensive care unit (ICU) was used as the outcome index to obtain the survival status and survival time of patients. Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data were established to evaluate the effect of APACHE Ⅱ score measured at multiple time points on the death risk of patients, and a subgroup analysis was performed.Results:Among the joint models, the one which include APACHE Ⅱ score, and the interaction items between APACHE Ⅱ and age showed the better fitting. Further analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score was affected by age, gender, hospital admission, baseline SOFA score and smoking history. After controlling for these confounding factors, APACHE Ⅱ score was significantly associated with 14-day all-cause death in patients with severe stroke [hazard ratio ( HR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.31-1.66, P < 0.001], which indicated that the risk of death increased by 48% (95% CI was 31%-66%) for each 1-point increase in APACHE Ⅱ score. Subgroup analysis showed that for different types of severe stroke patients, APACHE Ⅱ score had a greater impact on the risk of 14-day death in SAH patients ( HR = 1.43, 95% CI was 1.10-1.85), but had a smaller impact on ICH and IS groups [HR (95% CI) was 1.37 (1.15-1.64) and 1.35 (1.06-1.71), respectively]. There was no significant difference in APACHE Ⅱ score on the risk of 14-day death between the patients aged > 60 years old and those aged ≤ 60 years old [ HR (95% CI): 1.37 (1.08-1.72) vs. 1.35 (1.07-1.70), respectively]. Compared with patients with SOFA score > 3, APACHE Ⅱ score had a greater impact on the risk of 14-day death in patients with SOFA score ≤ 3 [ HR (95% CI): 1.40 (1.16-1.70) vs. 1.34 (1.16-1.55)]. Conclusion:Time-dependent APACHE Ⅱ score is an important indicator to evaluate the risk of death in patients with severe stroke.

Predicting prolonged length of intensive care unit stay via machine learning / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To construct length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay (LOS-ICU) prediction models for ICU patients, based on three machine learning models support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF), and to compare the prediction perfor-mance of the three machine learning models with the customized simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ(SAPS-Ⅱ) model.@*METHODS@#We used medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC)-Ⅲ database for model development and validation. The primary outcome was prolonged LOS-ICU(pLOS-ICU), defined as longer than the third quartile of patients' LOS-ICU in the studied dataset. The recursive feature elimination method was used to do feature selection for three machine learning models. We utilized 5-fold cross validation to evaluate model prediction performance. The Brier value, area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUROC), and estimated calibration index (ECI) were used as perfor-mance measures. Performances of the four models were compared, and performance differences between the models were assessed using two-sided t test. The model with the best prediction performance was employed to generate variable importance ranking, and the identified top five important predictors were pre-sented.@*RESULTS@#The final cohort in our study consisted of 40 200 eligible ICU patients, of whom 23.7% were with pLOS-ICU. The proportion of the male patients was 57.6%, and the age of all the ICU patients was (61.9±16.5) years.Results showed that the three machine learning models outperformed the customized SAPS-Ⅱ model in terms of all the performance measures with statistical significance (P < 0.01). Among the three machine learning models, the RF model achieved the best overall performance (Brier value, 0.145), discrimination (AUROC, 0.770) and calibration (ECI, 7.259). The calibration curve showed that the RF model slightly overestimated the risk of pLOS-ICU in high-risk ICU patients, but underestimated the risk of pLOS-ICU in low-risk ICU patients. Top five important predictors for pLOS-ICU identified by the RF model included age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body tempe-rature, and ratio of arterial oxygen tension to the fraction of inspired oxygen(PaO2/FiO2).@*CONCLUSION@#The RF algorithm-based pLOS-ICU prediction model had a best prediction performance in this study. It lays a foundation for future application of the RF-based pLOS-ICU prediction model in ICU clinical practice.

Comparação do desempenho do SAPS 3 em pacientes com e sem tumor sólido admitidos a uma unidade de terapia intensiva no Brasil: um estudo de coorte retrospectiva / Comparison of SAPS 3 performance in patients with and without solid tumor admitted to an intensive care unit in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study

RESUMO Objetivo: Comparar o desempenho do Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) em pacientes com e sem tumor sólido admitidos à unidade de terapia intensiva de um hospital oncológico. Métodos: Realizamos a análise de uma coorte retrospectiva em nossa base de dados administrativa da primeira admissão de pacientes adultos à unidade de terapia intensiva entre 2012 e 2016. Os pacientes foram classificados segundo a presença de tumor sólido. Avaliamos a discriminação utilizando a área sob a curva Características de Operação do Receptor (ASC COR) e a calibração com uso da abordagem com faixa de calibração. Resultados: Incluímos 7.254 pacientes (41,5% tinham câncer e 12,1% morreram durante a hospitalização). Os pacientes oncológicos tiveram maior mortalidade hospitalar do que os não oncológicos (respectivamente, 14,1% e 10,6%; p < 0,001). A discriminação do SAPS 3 foi melhor para os pacientes oncológicos (ASC COR = 0,85) do que para os não oncológicos (ASC COR = 0,79) (p < 0,001). Após aplicar a abordagem com faixa de calibração para pacientes oncológicos, o SAPS 3 atingiu as taxas médias observadas com intervalo de confiança de 95%. Em pacientes não oncológicos, o SAPS 3 superestimou a mortalidade nos pacientes com risco baixo a moderado. A calibração foi afetada pelo tempo apenas nos casos de pacientes não oncológicos. Conclusão: O SAPS 3 teve desempenho distinto para pacientes oncológicos e não oncológicos em nossa coorte de um único centro, observando-se variação (principalmente da calibração) ao longo do tempo. Esses achados devem ser levados em consideração ao avaliar o desempenho de escore de doença grave.

ABSTRACT Objective: To compare the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) in patients with and without solid cancer who were admitted to the intensive care unit of a comprehensive oncological hospital in Brazil. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of our administrative database of the first admission of adult patients to the intensive care unit from 2012 to 2016. The patients were categorized according to the presence of solid cancer. We evaluated discrimination using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration using the calibration belt approach. Results: We included 7,254 patients (41.5% had cancer, and 12.1% died during hospitalization). Oncological patients had higher hospital mortality than nononcological patients (14.1% versus 10.6%, respectively; p < 0.001). SAPS 3 discrimination was better for oncological patients (AUROC = 0.85) than for nononcological patients (AUROC = 0.79) (p < 0.001). After we applied the calibration belt in oncological patients, the SAPS 3 matched the average observed rates with a confidence level of 95%. In nononcological patients, the SAPS 3 overestimated mortality in those with a low-middle risk. Calibration was affected by the time period only for nononcological patients. Conclusion: SAPS 3 performed differently between oncological and nononcological patients in our single-center cohort, and variation over time (mainly calibration) was observed. This finding should be taken into account when evaluating severity-of-illness score performance.

Associação entre escore de gravidade, níveis inflamatórios e dano no DNA em pacientes na terapia intensiva / Association between severity score, inflammatory levels and DNA damage in intensive care patients / Asociación entre puntaje de gravedad, niveles inflamatorios y daño en el ADN en pacientes de cuidados intensivos

Justificativa e Objetivos: A Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) é responsável pelo tratamento de pacientes críticos e sua monitorização contínua pode melhorar a qualidade dos cuidados prestados. O objetivo deste estudo é associar a Escala Psicológica Aguda Simplificada (SAPS 3) com os níveis inflamatórios e o dano ao DNA em pacientes internados na UTI de um hospital do Vale do Taquari, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Métodos: Trata-se de uma pesquisa transversal realizada com 22 pacientes internados em uma UTI adulta, no período de janeiro a junho de 2016. O escore SAPS 3 foi pontuado pela equipe médica na admissão dos pacientes e amostras sanguíneas foram obtidas após 24 e 72 horas de internação para dosagem de Proteína C Reativa (PCR) e dano no DNA. Resultados: O escore SAPS 3 não se associou ao PCR de 24 e 72h. Entretanto, o escore SAPS 3 associou-se significativamente ao índice e a frequência de dano DNA, somente após 72 horas de internação. Conclusão: O escore de gravidade não se associou aos níveis de PCR, mas a danos no DNA, somente após 72 horas da admissão.(AU)

Background and Objectives: The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is responsible for the treatment of critical patients and monitoring it continuously can improve the quality of care provided. This study aims to associate the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS 3) with inflammatory levels and genomic damage in patients admitted to the ICU of a hospital in Vale do Taquari, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted with 22 patients from an adult ICU, between January and June 2016. The SAPS 3 was scored by the medical staff at the admission of patients and blood samples were obtained after 24 and 72 hours of hospitalization for C-Reactive Protein (CRP) dosing and DNA damage. Results: The SAPS 3 score was not associated with 24- and 72-hours CRP. However, the SAPS 3 score was significantly associated with the index and frequency of DNA damage, only after 72 hours of hospitalization. Conclusion: The severity score was not associated with CRP levels, but with DNA damage only after 72 hours of admission.

Justificación y objetivos: La Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) es responsable del tratamiento de pacientes críticos, y su monitoreo continuo puede mejorar la calidad de la atención ofrecida. El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo asociar la Puntuación Fisiológica Simplificada Aguda (SAPS 3) con los niveles inflamatorios y el daño al ADN en pacientes de la UCI de un hospital del Valle de Taquari, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Métodos: Este es un estudio transversal realizado con 22 pacientes ingresados en una UCI de adultos, entre enero y junio de 2016. El equipo médico calificó la puntuación SAPS 3 al ingreso de los pacientes, y se obtuvieron muestras de sangre después de 24 y 72 h de hospitalización para la medición del PCR y el daño al ADN. Resultados: La puntuación SAPS 3 no se asoció con la Proteína C Reactiva (PCR) a 24 y 72 horas. Sin embargo, lo asoció significativamente con el índice y la frecuencia de daño al ADN solo después de 72 horas de hospitalización. Conclusiones: El puntaje de gravedad no se asoció con los niveles de PCR, sino con el daño al ADN solamente 72 horas después del ingreso de los pacientes.(AU)

Comparison of four scoring systems for predicting ICU mortality in patients with sepsis / 南方医科大学学报

OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Simplified Acute Physiology Score Ⅱ (SAPS-Ⅱ), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) scoring systems for predicting ICU mortality in patients with sepsis.@*METHODS@#We collected the data of a total of 2470 cases of sepsis recorded in the MIMIC-III database from 2001 to 2012 and retrieved the scores of SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, OASIS and LODS of the patients within the first day of ICU admission. We compared with the score between the survivors and the non-survivors and analyzed the differences in the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the 4 scoring systems. Binomial logistic regression was performed to compare the predictive value of the 4 scoring systems for ICU mortality of the patients.@*RESULTS@#In the 2470 patients with sepsis, 1966 (79.6%) survived and 504 (20.4%) died in the ICU. Compared with the survivors, the non-survivors had a significantly older mean age, higher proportion of patients receiving mechanical ventilation, and higher initial lactate level, creatinine, urea nitrogen, SOFA score, SAPS-Ⅱ score, OASIS score and LODS score ( < 0.05) but with significantly lower body weight and platelet counts ( < 0.05). The AUCs of the SOFA score, SAPS-Ⅱ score, OASIS score, and LODS score were 0.729 ( < 0.001), 0.768 ( < 0.001), 0.757 ( < 0.001), and 0.739 ( < 0.001), respectively. The AUC of SAPS-Ⅱ score was significantly higher than those of SOFA score (=3.679, < 0.001) and LODS score (=3.698, < 0.001) but was comparable with that of OASIS score (=1.102, =0.271); the AUC of OASIS score was significantly higher than that of LODS score (=2.172, =0.030) and comparable with that of SOFA score (=1.709, =0.088). For predicting ICU mortality in patients without septic shock, the AUC of SAPS-Ⅱ score was 0.769 (0.743-0.793), the highest among the 4 scoring systems; in patients with septic shock, the AUCs SAPS-Ⅱ score and OASIS score, 0.768 (0.745-0.791) and 0.762 (0.738-0.785), respectively, were significantly higher than those of the other two scoring systems. Binomial logistic regression showed the corrected SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, and OASIS scores, but not LODS scores, were significantly correlated with ICU mortality in patients with sepsis, and their ORs were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.14, =0.001), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05, < 0.001), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06, =0.001), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-1.04, =0.350), respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The scores of SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, OASIS, and LODS can predict ICU mortality in patients with sepsis, but SAPS-Ⅱ and OASIS scores have better predictive value than SOFA and LODS scores.

Pertinence of score for neonatal acute physiology-II to prognosticate mortality and organ dysfunction in neonatal sepsis

INTRODUCTION:The present investigation was undertaken to correlation between mortality and morbidity (organ dysfunction [OD]) and score for neonatal acute physiology-II (SNAP-II).MATERIALS AND METHODS:A prospective investigation of newborns neonates, a total 157 neonates 82 male (52.2%), female 75 (47.8%) were enrolled and disunited into four groups according to gestational age: 28 to 30 weeks (G1), 31 to 33 (G2) 34 to 36 weeks (G3) and >37 weeks (G4) variables analyzed were SNAP II.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:The receiver operating characteristic curve for SNAP-II score and death is more predictive in correlation to OD (area under curve of death is 0.776 as compared to 0.553 for OD). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of SNAP-II score with mortality (outcome) were 42.8%, 100%, 100%, and 82.3%, respectively.CONCLUSION:The SNAP-II revealed efficient to fantabulous ?40 can prognosticate OD and death when applied on admission to neonates with sepsis.