ABSTRACT
This study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on potato production in the United Kingdom. Climate change actions are becoming a nightmare for growers worldwide, and the British potato industry is not an exception. Extreme weather conditions were experienced in 2006, 2012, and 2018, respectively. Thus, this study identified the future climate risk associated with major potato producing regions in the UK using the recent climate projection weather data (UKCP18) based on RCP 8.5. In total, the study considered seven (7) regions with a minimum average of 3000 hectares of potato planted area in the past five years. Findings showed that drought, high temperatures, and prolonged precipitation caused significant yield and quality loss in the past, with a likelihood of causing a more harmful impact in the future. The analysis revealed a hotter (Tmax ≥ 25°C, Tmin ≥ 15°C) and drier (1-1.5 mm day-1) summer most especially in the EE, EM, SW, WM, and YH as well as a warmer (Tmax& Tmin 6-10°C) and wetter winter (5 mm day-1 on average) in Scotland and North West England respectively. Future climate is predicted to hinder land preparation and harvesting operation in the Northern regions while the EE, EM, SW, WM, and YH would be faced with drought, with irrigation and water demand increasing by 20-30% as evapotranspiration also increases by 20-30% in 2050-2080. Irrigated potatoes are predicted to double its current spatial coverage in the future. The study identified suitable adaptation measures and strategies required to reduce the impacts of climate change on the British potato industry.
ABSTRACT
Drought is a global phenomenon that can occur in any ecological zone and render significant damages to both the natural environment and human lives. However, hydro-climatic stresses are growing distinctly in the arid zones across the globe. Literature suggests that the analysis of a long-term data-set could help in strengthening of mitigation planes and rationalization of disaster management policies. Thus, the present study is aimed to analyze the evidence-based historical drought events happened in arid-zone Badin, Pakistan and predict its occurrence and severity for the next 82 years (2018-2099). Drought indices viz standardized precipitation index and reconnaissance drought index have been used to detect the severity of the drought events. Thirty years (1988 to 2017) past data of precipitation and temperature were used to categorize the drought severity and validated against the local data. Climate projections based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 made at 25x25 km resolution used for future drought analysis. The results demonstrate that the region faced severe to extreme drought in 1990-91 and 2001-04. While, in future 2020-21, 2036-37, 2038-39 would be the extreme driest years under RCP 4.5 and 2029-30, 2089-90 under RCP 8.5. Further insight revealed that the average annual temperature has increased and precipitation has decreased w.r.t the base year 1988. It is concluded that drought detection with SPI and RDI is suitable and drought prediction with the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 could be a better option.