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Objective @#To understand the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of respiratory infectious disease prevention and control strategies.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to notifiable respiratory infectious disease in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 were collected through the Infectious Disease Report Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious disease was analyzed using a descriptive epidemiological method.@*Results@#@*Conclusions@#A total of 31 314 cases of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022, with an average annual reported incidence of 169.12/105. The reported incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 (P<0.05). The top six reported diseases in terms of case numbers were influenza (20 048 cases), tuberculosis (6 920 cases), COVID-19 (1 893 cases), mumps (1 413 cases), pertussis (475 cases) and scarlet fever (442 cases), accounting for 99.61% of the total cases. The incidence of influenza, COVID-19 and pertussis showed a tendency towards a rise, the incidence of mumps and tuberculosis showed a tendency towards a decline (all P<0.05), and scarlet fever remained at a low-level incidence (P>0.05). Respiratory infectious diseases were mainly reported in winter (January, February and December), with 14 644 cases accounting for 46.77%. There were 15 068 cases reported in schools and kindergartens, accounting for 48.12%. The incidence showed a U-shaped variation with age, with the highest incidence in residents at ages of 10 years and below (987.68/105), and showing a tendency towards a rise in residents at ages of 60 years and above. @*@#The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 increased significantly. Influenza, tuberculosis, COVID-19, mumps and pertussis are key notifiable respiratory infectious diseases. Residents at ages of 10 years and below and 60 years and above should be given a high priority for respiratory infectious disease control.
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Objective: To verify the accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in predicting the incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis (hereinafter referred as pneumoconiosis) and to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in the next five years. Methods: A follow-up survey was performed to collect data on pneumoconiosis patients reported in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2021. Collected data from 1956 to 2016 were used as the training set to build an ARIMA model. Collected data from 2017 to 2021 were used as the prediction set to evaluate the predicting result of the ARIMA model. The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in next five years. Results: The ARIMA (1,1,2) model was set up after model identification and order estimation. The model was used to predict the prediction set, and its result was good. The ARIMA result and actual values in 2021 were 213 and 210 cases, respectively, with a difference of only three cases. The number of pneumoconiosis cases predicted using the ARIMA model in Guangdong Province from 2022 to 2026 was 214, 204, 202, 194, and 191 cases, respectively, showing a trend of low-level prevalence. Conclusion: The ARIMA model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting pneumoconiosis incidence over a long period of time and with large sample sizes. The forecast results of the ARIMA(1,1,2) model indicate that the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province will be around 200 cases in the next five years, indicating a low-level prevalence.
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ObjectiveTo understand the incidence and change trend of thyroid cancer in Qingpu District， Shanghai from 2007 to 2016， and to provide a reference for formulating relevant prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsThe incidence data of thyroid cancer among residents in Qingpu District from 2007 to 2016 were collected using the Shanghai Malignant Tumor Registration System， and the crude incidence rate was calculated for different gender and age groups. The age-standardized incidence rate was calculated using the world standard population， and the annual percentage change （APC） was calculated using Joinpoint software to analyze the time trend of the incidence of thyroid cancer. ResultsThe incidence of thyroid cancer changed from 8.97/105 in 2007 to 52.02/105 in 2016， with an increase of 479.93% （APC=23.60， P<0.05）. The standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer in men and women was 11.21/105 and 32.11/105， respectively， Male to female incidence ratio was 1∶3. Thyroid cancer in Qingpu District was mainly concentrated in the 25‒64 age group， accounting for 88.03% of the total incidence. ConclusionFrom 2007 to 2016， the incidence of thyroid cancer in Qingpu District， Shanghai has a significant upward trend. The age of high incidence tends to be younger and the incidence of women is significantly higher than that of men. Corresponding prevention and treatment measures should be formulated in consideration of the discovered incidence characteristics.
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Objective: To analyze the incidence characteristics of occupational diseases in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2020, provide scientific basis for formulating occupational disease prevention and control policies. Methods: In January 2021, based on the data of occupational diseases in Guangzhou reported in the Information Monitoring System of Occupational Diseases and Occupational Health, descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the types and characteristics of occupational diseases in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2020. Results: A total of 1341 cases of 38 kinds of occupational diseases in 9 categories were reported in the past 11 years. The incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis, occupational otolaryngology and oral diseases and occupational chemical poisoning ranked the top three, accounting for 38.1% (511/1341) , 30.5% (409/1341) and 16.2% (217/1341) of the total cases respectively. The cases of pneumoconiosis in welders and silicosis accounted for 47.7% (244/511) and 34.4% (176/511) of the cases of occupational pneumoconiosis respectively. The cases of noise deafness accounted for 99.8% (408/409) of occupational otorhinolaryngology oral diseases. Acute occupational chemical poisoning cases accounted for 26.7% (58/217) of the occupational chemical poisoning cases, in which dichloroethane poisoning cases ranked the first, accounting for 79.3% (46/58) . Chronic occupational chemical poisoning cases accounted for 73.3% (159/217) of the occupational poisoning cases, in which benzene and lead poisoning cases ranked the top two, accounting for 79.2% (126/159) and 17.6% (28/159) respectively. Conclusion: Pneumoconiosis, silicosis, noise deafness, benzene poisoning, lead poisoning, dichloroethane poisoning should be supervised and managed as key occupational diseases in Guangzhou.
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Humans , Benzene , China/epidemiology , Deafness , Ethylene Dichlorides , Incidence , Lead Poisoning , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Pneumoconiosis/epidemiology , SilicosisABSTRACT
Objective @#To analyze the trends in incidence of thyroid cancer in Huangpu District, Shanghai from 2002 to 2017, so as to provide insights into the management of thyroid cancer.@*Methods @#The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shanghai from 2002 to 2017 was collected from the cancer registration system created by Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The crude and standardized incidence of thyroid cancer were estimated by year, gender and age groups, and annual change percentage ( APC ) was calculated to analyze the trends in incidence of thyroid cancer.@*Results @#A total of 2 854 new cases of thyroid cancer were reported in Huangpu District from 2002 to 2017, and the crude and standardized incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 19.57/105 and 13.47/105, with APC of 18.15% and 17.93% ( P<0.05 ), respectively. The crude and standardized incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 10.02/105 and 7.06/105 in men, with APC of 19.58% and 19.04% ( P<0.05 ), and were 28.90/105 and 19.95/105 in women, with APC of 17.33% and 16.99% ( P<0.05 ), respectively. The crude incidence of thyroid cancer was higher in women than in men ( P<0.05 ). In addition, there were two peaks in the crude incidence of thyroid cancer in patients at age of 35 to 39 and 60 to 64 years, with crude incidence rates of 28.98/105 and 33.36/105, respectively. @*Conclusions @#The incidence of thyroid cancer appeared a tendency towards a rise in Huangpu District from 2002 to 2017, and much attention should be paid to females and patients aged 60 to 64 years.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of new occupational pneumoconiosis(hereinafter referred to as pneumoconiosis) in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2019. METHODS: The data of new pneumoconiosis cases in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2019 were collected through the Occupational Disease and Occupational Disease Health Information Monitoring Subsystem in the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and a retrospective analysis was conducted. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, there were 4 450 new cases of pneumoconiosis in Jiangxi Province. Among these cases, the main disease types were coal workers′ pneumoconiosis and silicosis, accounting for 98.5%. The number of new cases of pneumoconiosis showed a decreasing trend with the increase of years for the last ten years(P<0.05). The median age and the 0 th-100 th percentile [M(P_0-P_(100))] of new-onset pneumoconiosis diagnosis was 56.6(34.0-97.0) years old. The service length M(P_0-P_(100)) with dust-exposure was 12.0(1.0-48.0) years. The main industry of the new pneumoconiosis cases was concentrated in the coal mining and washing industry(63.4%). The distribution of economic types of enterprises with new pneumoconiosis cases was mainly state-owned enterprises(70.0%). The enterprise scale was medium-sized and small enterprises(65.9% in total). The types of work were mainly coal blenders, rock drillers, and coal miners, accounting for 56.5%. CONCLUSION: The incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis in Jiangxi Province is not optimistic. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of occupational diseases on workers exposed to dust in key industries, enterprises and types of work.
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Objective To investigate the epidemical characteristics and analyze the incidence trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in Shanghai. Methods The epidemical data on NCP in Shanghai from January 20 to February 3, 2020 were collected for epidemiological descriptive analysis. Results The number of cumulative confirmed and suspected cases increased first and then decreased from January 20 to February 3, with the peak date being January 30 and January 29 respectively. The day-on-day growth rate of the suspected cases and the cumulative confirmed cases declined after January 27. Among the confirmed cases, the proportion of the exposure history of relevant confirmed cases was on the rise. The total number of confirmed cases of the resident population exceeded that of the population from other places to Shanghai, and Pudong new area had the largest number of confirmed cases. Conclusion The incidence of NCP showed a slowdown trend in shanghai, but it also faces the pressure of the peak of population returning to city, which should be paid enough attention to.
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Objective To investigate the epidemical characteristics and analyze the incidence trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP) in Shanghai. Methods The epidemical data on NCP in Shanghai from January 20 to February 3, 2020 were collected for epidemiological descriptive analysis. Results The number of cumulative confirmed and suspected cases increased first and then decreased from January 20 to February 3, with the peak date being January 30 and January 29 respectively.The day-on-day growth rate of the suspected cases and the cumulative confirmed cases declined after January 27.Among the confirmed cases, the proportion of the exposure history of relevant confirmed cases was on the rise.The total number of confirmed cases of the resident population exceeded that of the population from other places to Shanghai, and Pudong new area had the largest number of confirmed cases. Conclusion The incidence of NCP shows a slowdown trend in shanghai, but it also faces the pressure of the peak of population returning to city, which should be paid enough attention to.
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Objective To investigate the epidemical characteristics and analyze the incidence trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP) in Shanghai. Methods The epidemical data on NCP in Shanghai from January 20 to February 3, 2020 were collected for epidemiological descriptive analysis. Results The number of cumulative confirmed and suspected cases increased first and then decreased from January 20 to February 3, with the peak date being January 30 and January 29 respectively.The day-on-day growth rate of the suspected cases and the cumulative confirmed cases declined after January 27.Among the confirmed cases, the proportion of the exposure history of relevant confirmed cases was on the rise.The total number of confirmed cases of the resident population exceeded that of the population from other places to Shanghai, and Pudong new area had the largest number of confirmed cases. Conclusion The incidence of NCP shows a slowdown trend in shanghai, but it also faces the pressure of the peak of population returning to city, which should be paid enough attention to.
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Objective @#To learn the incidence trend of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among women of childbearing age in Hangzhou from 2009 to 2018, providing evidence for GDM prevention and control.@*Methods@#The information of GDM cases aged 15 to 49 years in Hangzhou from 2009 to 2018 was extracted from Zhejiang non-communicable diseases surveillance system. The crude and age-standardized (by national standard population in 2000) incidence rate of GDM were calculated, the annual change percentage (APC) and the average APC (AAPC) of GDM incidence rate were calculated to understand the trend of incidence in different age groups and areas. @*Results@#A total of 45 519 cases of GDM were reported in Hangzhou from 2009 to 2018. The crude and age-standardized incidence rates were 248.04/100 000 and 158.52/100 000, respectively, both showed upward trends with 59.7% and 56.4% in AAPC (both P<0.05). The APCs of crude and age-standardized incidence rates of GDM were 139.76% and 134.60% from 2009 to 2012, 30.35% and 27.65% from 2012 to 2018, which all had increasing trends (all P<0.05). There were upward trends in GDM incidence in each age groups of 15-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 and 40-49 years old (all P<0.05). The AAPC of GDM incidence in 40-49 year-old women was 65.3% and ranked the first among all the age groups. The age-standardized incidence rate of GDM increased more in rural areas (AAPC=66.0%) than in urban areas (AAPC=53.4%). @*Conclusion@# A rising trend in GDM incidence among women aged 15-49 years in Hangzhou has been found in recent ten years, especially in women aged 40-49 years and lived in rural areas.
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of measles, predict the incidence trend of the disease, and provide reference for the development of measles prevention and elimination strategies. Methods Descriptive analysis, seasonal index method, clustering analysis and ARIMA model were used for data analysis and trend prediction. Results The average annual incidence of measles in 2005-2018 was 3.01/100,000. It was at a low level after 2009, and rebounded in 2018. The seasonal index of March-June was greater than 1, which was the month of high incidence. The incidence of men was higher than that of women. The 0-3 years old and 10-30 years old groups had a high incidence, and the population was mainly scattered children, students, and nursery children. The areas with high incidence were mainly northwestern and southeastern Hubei. ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1) was the optimal model. The prediction analysis showed that the incidence rate in 2019 will be 1.26/100 000. Conclusion After the implementation of booster immunization, the measles epidemic in Hubei Province was at a low level, but it fluctuated greatly in recent years and is currently showing a rising trend. The incidence was high in spring. Cases were "biphasic shift" in groups 0-3 years old and 10-30 years old. Occupational distribution was consistent with the characteristics of high incidence in the age group. The mountain areas with poor sanitary conditions and economic backwardness, and regions with large population bases and high floating populations had a high incidence. The ARIMA model had good applicability in predicting the trend of measles incidence, which shows measles will continue to rise in 2019.
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Objective To provide reference for formulating scarlet fever prevention and control strategies by analyzing the epidemiological characteristics and predicting the incidence trend of scarlet fever. Methods Spearman correlation analysis, clustering analysis, seasonal index model and seasonal ARIMA model were used for analysis and prediction. Results The average annual incidence of scarlet fever in 2010-2018 was 1.37/100 000, and there was a positive correlation between annual incidence and year (rs=0.817,P=0.007). April-June and November-December were high incidence months. The clustering analysis was significant(F=4795.30，P<0.001), showing that the high-incidence areas are Shennongjia, Yichang, Enshi, Wuhan. Reported cases were concentrated in 1-14 years old, mainly for students, child care children and scattered children. The incidence rate of males was higher than that of females. The optimal model is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12. The prediction showed that the monthly incidence characteristics of 2019 were consistent with previous years, and the annual incidence rate was 10.22/100 000(95% CI:2.33/100 000-30.43/100 000), which was higher than the incidence of 2018. Conclusions The incidence of scarlet fever in Hubei Province is generally on the rise from 2010 to 2018. The incidence is bimodal. Students are the main disease group. The incidence rate of males is higher. The incidence is mainly concentrated in the mountainous areas of southwest and capital cities. The ARIMA model has a good applicability in the prediction of scarlet fever. The incidence level will continue to rise in 2019, and it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and control measures with reference to epidemiological characteristics.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict epidemiological trends of occupational chemical poisoning,based on directly reported data during 2006-2015 in Guangdong Province. METHODS: The data of patients with occupational chemical poisoning reported from National Information Surveillance System for Occupational Disease and Occupational Health from 2006 to 2015 in Guangdong Province were collected. The epidemiological characteristics were retrospectively analyzed. The autoregressive integral moving average model( ARIMA model) was established and validated based on the number of the new onset cases and was used to predict the trends of occupational chemical poisoning from 2017 to 2020 in Guangdong Province. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2015,1 288 new cases of occupational chemical poisoning were reported in Guangdong Province,which accounted for 24. 4% of the total number of new cases of occupational diseases in the province( 5 283 cases). Among the new cases,the percentage of acute and chronic poisoning was 21. 7%( 279/1 288) and 78. 3%( 1 009/1 288). There was 74. 7%( 962/1 288) of organic solvent poisoning. Five kinds of new occupational chemical poisoning were found. Most of the new cases were male,accounting for 56. 7%( 729/1 288). They were mainly distributed and concentrated in Pearl River Delta Region,accounting for 95. 9%(1 235/1 288). Shenzhen,Dongguan and Guangzhou were the most three cities which had 425,325 and 209 cases respectively,all of them accounted for 74. 4%( 959/1 288). The new cases of poisoning mainly distributed in medium and small enterprises( 72. 0%),private economic enterprises( 50. 9%) and manufacturing industries(70. 5%). The number of occupational chemical poisoning diseases decreased first,and increased,and the proportion to the total number of occupational diseases in Guangdong Province showed a straight downward trend(P < 0. 01). The median age at diagnosis was 35 years old and the median work year at diagnosis was 2. 0 years,and both of them showed an increasing trend( P < 0. 01). CONCLUSION: Occupational chemical poisoning in Guangdong Province has certain characteristic of crowd aggregation and epidemic trends.
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OBJECTIVE: To explore the application of the autoregressive integrated moving average model( ARIMA model)in predicting incidence of occupational noise-induced deafness( ONID). METHODS: The ARIMA model was established and validated based on the number of new onset ONID cases in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2015. Then the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of new onset ONID cases from 2016 to 2020. RESULTS: The number of new ONID cases in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2015 showed an exponential growth trend. The optimal model fitted with the number of new onset ONID cases from 2006 to 2015 was the ARIMA( 2,2,2) model,which better match the number of new onset ONID cases from 2008 to 2015. According to the ARIMA( 2,2,2) model,the number of new onset ONID cases in Guangdong Province will continue to have a rapidly increasing trend from 2016 to 2020. CONCLUSION: The ARIMA model based on time series matches the time trend of ONID onset,and it can be used for the prediction of ONID incidence trend.
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Objective To analyze the incidence trend of malignant tumor in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2002 to 2013,in order to provide scientific evidence for making the comprehensive prevention and control strategy.Methods Incidence of cancer data (2002-2013) of Minhang District were collected.The crude rate,standardized rate,sectional shrinkage rate,accumulation rate,percentage change (PC),annual percentage change (APC) and annual change contribution rate were calculated for main malignant tumors separately.Results The total incidence of malignant tumors in Minhang District from 2002 to 2013 increased year by year,mainly showed in thyroid cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer,while decreased in gastric cancer,liver cancer and lung cancer.Conclusions The incidence of malignant tumor in Minhang District was increasing.The incidence of thyroid cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer were significantly increased,which were needed to pay more attention.The incidence of gastric cancer and liver cancer were decreased significantly,which indicated that exposure factors were controlled effectively.
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Objective To analyze the incidence of lung cancer in Qidong , Jiangsu Province of China from 1993 to 2012 . Methods The clinical data of lung cancer from 1993 to 2012 for patients with census registration in Qidong were sorted out from the cancer registration center in Qidong .The annual percent change ( APC) model was used to analyze the trend over time for the incidence of lung cancer .The SAS 9.4 software and the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.3.1.0 were used to implement data analyses . Results A total of 11 895 new cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Qidong , Jiangsu province from 1993 to 2012 .Among them , 8 629 were male cases and 3 266 were female cases and the median age for these patients was 68 .41 .The crude incidence rate for lung cancer for males was 90 .06/100 000 , which was significantly higher than that for females, i.e., 29.94/100 000(Poisson distribution test, P<0.01). The standardized incidence rate of lung cancer for male was 52 .92/100 000 , which was significantly higher than that for females, i.e.18.52/100 000(Poisson distribution test, P<0.01).The APC for the crude incidence rate for lung cancer was 6 .1 from 1993 to 2012 and the APC for the standardized incidence rate for lung cancer was 5 .5 . Conclusion The incidence of lung cancer increases in Qidong on a yearly basis from 1993 to 2012, with the incidence thereof for males being significantly higher than that for females .
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Objective To analyze the incidence of colorectal cancer ( CRC) for patients with census registration in Qidong , Jiangsu Province . Methods The clinical data of CRC for patients with census registration in Qidong were sorted out from the cancer registration center in Qidong , Jiangsu province .The incidence was standardized by utilizing the standard population age composition based on the nationwide census in 2000 .The annual percent change ( APC) model was used to analyze the trend over time for the incidence of CRC . Results A total of 4 648 new cases of CRC were diagnosed in Qidong from 1993 to 2012 , of which 2 328 were male cases and 2 320 were female cases .The crude incidence rate for CRC was 23 .00/100 000 and the APC for the standardized incidence rate for CRC was 14 .13/100 000 , with the incidence thereof for males significantly higher than that for females ( P<0.001).The incidence rate of CRC for seniors aged over 50 rose quickly .From 1993 to 2012 , the average annual increase rate of the incidence for CRC was 5 .1%and the average annual increase rate of the standardized incidence therefor was 5.0%in Qidong. Conclusion The incidence of CRC increases in Qidong on a yearly basis from 1993 to 2012 , with the incidence thereof for males being significantly higher than that for females .
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Objective To analyze the incidence of gastric cancer in Qidong , Jiangsu Province from 1993 to 2012 and analyze the harmful levels and the clinical characteristics thereof , thus providing bases of implementing the prevention , research and control measures for gastric cancer . Methods The clinical data of gastric cancer from January 1993 to December 2012 for patients with census registration in Qidong were sorted out from the cancer registration center in Qidong .The annual percent change ( APC) model was used to analyze the trend over time for the incidence of gastric cancer .The incidence was standardized by utilizing the standard population age composition based on the nationwide census in 2000 . Results A total of 8 272 new cases of gastric cancer were diagnosed in Qidong from 1993 to 2012, and the median age for these patients was 67.92(57.50-76.00).Among them, 5 269 were male cases and the median age for these male patients was 67.25(57.75-74.75);3 003 were female cases and the median age for these female patients was 69.16(57.00-77.91).The annual average for the crude incidence rate of gastric cancer was 40.37/100 000, and the standardized incidence rate thereof was 25.22.37/100 000.The crude incidence rate of gastric cancer decreased significantly from 1993 to 2002(for the crude incidence rate thereof , APC=-1.59, t=-4.6, P<0.01);the crude incidence rate of gastric cancer increased significantly from 2002 to 2007(for the crude incidence rate thereof , APC=-8.88, t=-5.3, P<0.01).Both the standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer and the crude incidence rate thereof had the same trend for the period from 1993 to 2002 as well as the period from 2002 to 2007.The crude incidence rate of gastric cancer rose with the growth of ages(for male patients, APC=734.8, t=-511.2, P<0.01; for female patients, APC=43.6, t=17.9, P<0.01).The crude incidence rate of gastric cancer reached a climax for both males and females of the age group between 75 and 80. Conclusion The incidence of gastric cancer was relatively high in Qidong from 1993 to 2012;the male and the old-aged groups are high-risk groups .
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Objective To analyze the incidence of gallbladder cancer in Qidong City from 1993 to 2012 . Methods The clinical data of gallbladder cancer from January 1993 to December 2012 for patients with census registration in Qidong were sorted out from the cancer registration center in Qidong . Annual percent change ( APC ) models were applied to describe the annual percent changes of disease incidence and the standardized incidence trend over time.The incidence was standardized with the age structure of standard population from a national census taken in 2000 . Results A total of 493 new cases were diagnosed from 1993 to 2012 , occupying 0 .81%of new-onset malignant tumors for the same period . The crude incidence rate of gallbladder cancer was 2 .41/100 000 population and the standardized incidence thereof was 1 .42/100 000 population .Both the crude incidence and the standardized incidence thereof increased on a yearly basis from 1993 to 2012 ( APC=12 .83; APC =12 .04 ) while the annual crude incidence thereof for females increased faster than that for males ( APC=14 .51; APC=10 .60 ) . Old people aged 65 years and above were a high-risk group for gallbladder cancer , occupying 63 .49%of the incidence thereof for all ages . Conclusion The incidence of gallbladder cancer increases in Qidong , Jiangsu province of China on a yearly basis from 1993 to 2012 , with the incidence thereof for females increasing faster than that for males .
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Objective To predict incidence trend of brucellosis in Anyang,Henan Province,so as to provide basis for instituting aimed preventive management.Methods To construct gray model (GM) according to incidence and rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2004 to 2015,and predict the incidence rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2016 to 2018.The data of brucellosis in Anyang were from the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System for Disease Control,China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,the population data were from Anyang Bureau of Statistics.Results The GM (1,1) had good accuracy in predicting and test,the posterior error ratio (C) =0.32,and the probability value (P) =0.99.The model could be used for extrapolating prediction.The actual incidence rate was compared with the predicted value,the value was basically consistent,fit effect was good.The predictive morbidity of brucellosis was 2.92/105,3.12/105 and 3.43/105 from 2016 to 2018 in Anyang,the incidence showed an increasing trend.Conclusions The GM (1,1) has high precision for predicting incidence of brucellosis.We need to take into account the epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases and social factors in actual practice.