Desarrollo de un modelo de planeación financiera para una compañía de alimentos utilizando simulación Monte Carlo / Development of a financial planning model for the food's company using Monte Carlo simulation / Desenvolvimento de um modelo de planeamento financeiro para a empresa do ramo alimentar utilizando simulação Monte Carlo

RESUMEN El objetivo es desarrollar un modelo de planeación financiera que permita calcular las ganancias probables de una compañía de alimentos en Colombia, en un horizonte temporal de seis años. La metodología utilizada es el Valor Presente Neto de sus flujos de caja libre, calculados a partir de 38 variables de entrada y de proceso que recogen el aspecto macroeconómico, las políticas financieras y los estados contables. Se realizaron 10.000 iteraciones con la técnica de simulación Montecarlo. Los resultados de la simulación indican que sus ganancias probables están entre $278.293 millones y $449.934 millones con un nivel de confianza del 90%. El análisis de sensibilidad del plan financiero permite concluir que la compañía debe reformular sus políticas financieras relacionadas con la administración del capital de trabajo, dado que la cartera y principalmente los inventarios tienen una influencia negativa sobre el VPN, según los coeficientes de regresión. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL B41, C15

ABSTRACT The goal is to develop a financial planning model that allows calculating the probable profits of a food company in Colombia, in a time horizon of six years. The methodology used is the Net Present Value of its Free Cash Flow, calculated from 38 input and process variables that include the macroeconomic aspect, financial policies and financial statements. 10.000 iterations were carried out with the Montecarlo simulation technique. The simulation results indicate that its probable profits are between $278.293 million and y $449.934 million with a confidence level of 90%. The sensitivity analysis of the financial plan allows to conclude that the company should reformulate its financial policies related to the management of working capital, since the debt clients and mainly the inventories has a negative influence on the Net Present Value, according the regression coefficients. JEL CLASSIFICATION B41, C15

RESUMO O objectivo é desenvolver um modelo de planeamento financeiro que permita calcular os prováveis lucros de uma empresa alimentar na Colômbia, num horizonte temporal de seis anos. A metodologia utilizada é o Valor Presente Líquido dos seus fluxos de caixa livres, calculado a partir de 38 variáveis de entrada e de processo que recolhem o aspecto macroeconómico, as políticas financeiras e as declarações contabilísticas. Um total de 10.000 iterações foram realizadas utilizando a técnica de simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados da simulação indicam que os seus prováveis lucros se situam entre $278,293 milhões e $449,934 milhões com um nível de confiança de 90%. A análise de sensibilidade do plano financeiro permite concluir que a empresa deve reformular as suas políticas financeiras relacionadas com a gestão do capital de exploração, uma vez que a carteira e principalmente os inventários têm uma influência negativa no VPL, de acordo com os coeficientes de regressão. CLASSIFICAÇÃO JEL B4I, CI5

Análise econômico-financeira do gerenciamento dos resíduos sólidos orgânicos em uma agroindústria de processamento mínimo de hortaliças / Economic and financial analysis of the management of organic solid waste from a small-scale agro-processing industry

RESUMO As atividades agroindustriais geram grandes quantidades de resíduos sólidos orgânicos. Por essa razão, são responsáveis por estabelecer metas e estratégias de gerenciamento de seus resíduos, visando, sempre que possível, à reutilização, à reciclagem e ao tratamento. Realizou-se um estudo de caso em que foi avaliada a viabilidade econômico-financeira de diferentes cenários para o gerenciamento de resíduos sólidos orgânicos provenientes do processamento mínimo de hortaliças em uma agroindústria localizada na cidade de Teresópolis, no estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Os cenários que avaliaram os custos com a disposição final dos resíduos sólidos orgânicos em aterros sanitários se apresentaram elevados. Já no cenário que considerou o tratamento dos resíduos sólidos orgânicos, por meio da técnica de compostagem, observou-se que este foi viável financeiramente e atrativo para investimento, pois apresentou uma rentabilidade na ordem de 19,28% a.a., rentabilidade esta superior às diferentes opções de aplicações financeiras disponíveis no mercado. Com o tratamento dos resíduos sólidos orgânicos e a comercialização do composto produzido, promove-se a geração de receita para a agroindústria e a destinação ambientalmente correta desses resíduos, pois o tratamento não só reduz os impactos ambientais e o volume de resíduos gerados, mas também permite a reinserção dos nutrientes no ciclo produtivo de novas culturas, gerando renda para a agroindústria. Para o tratamento dos resíduos faz-se necessário um investimento inicial de R$ 385.388,09, e estimou-se que o tempo necessário para a recuperação do capital financeiro foi de curto prazo, com quatro anos e dez meses.

ABSTRACT Agro-industrial activities generate large quantities of organic solid waste. For this reason, they are responsible for establishing goals and strategies for the management of their waste, aiming at reuse, recycling, and treatment whenever possible. This work presents a case study was carried out to evaluate the economic and financial viability of different scenarios for the management of agro-industry residues generated by the minimum processing of vegetables, located in Teresopolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The scenarios that evaluated the costs of disposal of organic solid waste in landfills were high. On the other hand, in the scenario that considered the treatment of organic solid wastes, through the composting technique, it was observed that it was financially feasible and attractive for investment, since it presented a profitability of 19.28% per year, which is higher than different options available in the market. With the treatment of organic solid waste and the commercialization of the compound produced, the generation of revenue for the agroindustry and the environmentally correct destination of this waste are promoted, since it not only reduces the environmental impacts and the volume of waste generated, but also allows the reinsertion of nutrients into the productive cycle of new crops, generating income for the agroindustry. For the treatment of waste, an initial investment of R$ 385,388.09 is necessary, where it was estimated that the time required to recover financial capital was in the short term, with four years and ten months.

Análise da viabilidade econômico-financeira de sistemas de cria em gado de corte: estudo de múltiplos casos / Economic-financial analysis of cow-calf systems: multiple case studies

Muitas fazendas, situadas em bacias leiteiras, estão migrando da atividade leiteira para a pecuária de corte e tal migração vem sendo feita de forma muitas vezes não criteriosa ou sem assistência técnica. Neste estudo, objetivou-se avaliar a viabilidade econômico-financeira e o risco econômico de diferentes sistemas de cria de gado de corte, explorados em regiões de bacia leiteira. O trabalho consistiu em um estudo de múltiplos casos que tiveram como critério de escolha três sistemas que desenvolvessem atividade de cria. O horizonte de informações econômicas dos sistemas foi de 36 meses e os sistemas de criação foram caracterizados por meio de levantamento de dados realizados em visitas periódicas, utilizando-se questionários previamente elaborados. Foram estimados o valor presente líquido e a taxa interna de retorno do investimento, e realizaram-se as análises de sensibilidade e o risco de cada sistema de criação. Os três sistemas de cria foram viáveis financeiramente por terem VPL positivo a uma taxa de desconto de 6,0% a.a. O retorno da atividade mostrou-se mais sensível aos investimentos realizados na compra de terra e nas matrizes. Os riscos desses sistemas, apesar da possibilidade de mudanças no mercado, foram considerados baixos, tornando-os opções de investimentos atrativas, quando comparados aos rendimentos obtidos com a caderneta de poupança.(AU)

Many farms located in milk-producing regions in Brazil have turned from dairy to beef production systems. These business migrations have been done with no particular care or any use of technical assistance. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the economics aspects, such as viability and risk assessment of different cow-calf systems established in those regions. The work consisted of a multiple case study using three farms. The economic horizon lasted 36 months, with data collection obtained in periodic visits, using a pre-designed survey. Net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) on investment were estimated. Further analysis of sensitivity was made for these indicators. All cow-calf systems were economically viable with positive NPV, with a discount rate of 6.0% per year. The economic viability of the cow-calf systems was more sensitive to investments in land and animals - sires and cows). The assessment of risks in these cow-calf systems showed them to be low, despite the possibility of changes in the market. The cow-calf systems, when submitted to technical assistance, may be an attractive option of investment compared to investing in saving account.(AU)

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electronic Medical Record System at a Tertiary Care Hospital / 대한의료정보학회지

OBJECTIVES: Although Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems provide various benefits, there are both advantages and disadvantages regarding its cost-effectiveness. This study analyzed the economic effects of EMR systems using a cost-benefit analysis based on the differential costs of managerial accounting. METHODS: Samsung Medical Center (SMC) is a general hospital in Korea that developed an EMR system for outpatients from 2006 to 2008. This study measured the total costs and benefits during an 8-year period after EMR adoption. The costs include the system costs of building the EMR and the costs incurred in smoothing its adoption. The benefits included cost reductions after its adoption and additional revenues from both remodeling of paper-chart storage areas and medical transcriptionists' contribution. The measured amounts were discounted by SMC's expected interest rate to calculate the net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and discounted payback period (DPP). RESULTS: During the analysis period, the cumulative NPV and the BCR were US$3,617 thousand and 1.23, respectively. The DPP was about 6.18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Although the adoption of an EMR resulted in overall growth in administrative costs, it is cost-effective since the cumulative NPV was positive. The positive NPV was attributed to both cost reductions and additional revenues. EMR adoption is not so attractive to management in that the DPP is longer than 5 years at 6.18 and the BCR is near 1 at 1.23. However, an EMR is a worthwhile investment, seeing that this study did not include any qualitative benefits and that the paper-chart system was cost-centric.

Factors for converting hazelnut (Corylus avellana L) into black alder (Alnus glutinosa Yalt.) plantations.

Hazelnut plantations, which are a major source of income for the villagers in the eastern Black sea region are not able to provide sufficient income to the villagers due to price fluctuations and sudden falls witnessed in recent years. Alternative investments in place of hazelnut cultivation are being investigated in order to prevent migration to urban areas and to increase the welfare of the rural population in the region. Black alder plantation investments have been assessed as one of the most essential alternative investment tools within the framework of the study. Assessment was carried out by comparing expected possible net present values (NPV). Although value increase occurs 12-18 years later, more income can be obtained through black alder than hazelnut plantation. In hazelnut plantations, the best NPV emerged in the lower zone. NPV was positive in the moderate zone but values were close to zero. In upper zone, positive NPV couldn’t emerge. As a result, it was understood that black alder plantation investment is an effective alternative for hazelnut plantations.

Cost, Benefit Analysis of Operation System Change in the Hospital Foodservice

Environmental pressures from such sources an economic condition, the government and inter-institutional competition create managerial challenges. Economic pressures may be forcing dietetic dept, in hospital to utilize cost, benefit analysis to assist them in their problem solving. Cost, benefit analysis have been widely used in business, industry and many other fields with only limited application to foodservice. Due to the lack or this information the purposes of this study were to identify use of cost, benefit analysis in hospital foodservice system to evaluate the economic efficiency of alternatives, and to make recommendation for operation system change. Using the cost?benefit method, cash flows are separated into cost and benefits. For an alternative to be selected, indicators, such as NPV, benefit-cost ratio (B/C ratio) with 5% discount rate per annum. The sensitivity analysis was also conducted with difference rate 3%, 7% respectively and reduced employee payroll change. The result of this study can be summarized as follows : 1. The total cost of investment for operation system change was 390,570 thousand won and the total benefit through operation system change was 865,808 thousand won. 2. Net present value(NPV) for 5 years was 475,239 thousand won and benefit-cost ratio was 2.22. 3. In sensitivity analysis with different discount rate 3%, 7%, benefit-cost ratio was 2.25, 2.18 respectively, with total reduced employee payroll change, benefit-cost ratio was 2.86. In conclusion, total benefits were exceeded total costs. Therefore, the project of operation system change in hospital foodservice was found to be economically efficient.

Economic benefit of military medical measurement in Nanjing Military Region / 医疗卫生装备

Objective: To evaluate economic benefits of military medical measurement. Methods: According to the record of the metrological verification from the measurement station in Nanjing military region from 2000 to 2004, database is set up by Excel 2003 and the economic benefits from 14 kinds of measuring standard are analyzed. Results In a 5-year-lifetime cycle, the NPV of 10 kinds of measuring standards were over 0, 4 kinds less than 0, the average pay back period was 4.43year, and total benefit cost ratio was 2.73. Conclusion Economic benefits have been gained obviously in the investment of military medical measurement.