ABSTRACT
Objective:To design a simulative model for the forecast and optimal placement of mass casualty evacuation assets.Methods: An operation research module named the location selection problem was introduced in this study.The probabilistic location set covering problem was chosen as the theoretical model for optimal placement of mass casualty evacuation assets.Several indeterminate factors were analyzed in details,including the availability;capacity and velocity and effective work time of evacuation assets.The ideal statistical distributions were determined by the characteristics of these variables.Results: According to the principle of Monte Carlo simulation and based on the probabilistic location set covering problem,random numbers fitting theoretical probabilistic distributions were generated to simulate those indeterminate factors,based on which a simulative model for optimal placement of casualty evacuation assets was designed.Conclusion: This simulative model may be used as a basis for further development of a computer-assisted program and as a reference for medical administration commanders at different levels.