ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of serplulimab combined with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model with three health states was constructed for cost-effectiveness analysis. Clinical data were extracted from ASTRUM- 007. Information on parameters such as cost and health utility was derived from related websites and published literature. The quality-adjusted life years （QALYs） was used as the output index to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）， and then compared with three times the per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in China to judge whether it was cost-effective. One- way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model； the cost- effectiveness of applying this plan to subgroup patients with programmed cell death-ligand 1 combined positive score （PD-L1 CPS） ≥10 and the scheme in the context of charitable drug donations was explored. RESULTS Among advanced or metastatic oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients and patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥10， serplulimab combined with chemotherapy could improve health outcomes with an augmentation of cost， compared with placebo combined with chemotherapy，resulting the ICERs were 599 623.64 yuan/QALY and 629 121.57 yuan/QALY， respectively. Therefore， serplulimab combined with chemotherapy was not cost-effective. Sensitivity analysis of single factor showed that the costs of serplulimab were the crucial factor affecting the ICER； probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated basic analysis results were relatively robust. The results of scenario analysis showed that when all patients met the requirements of the charitable drug donation program， serplulimab combined with chemotherapy was cost-effective； the economic outcome of this scheme was reversed compared with the results of the basic analysis. CONCLUSIONS From Chinese healthcare perspective， first-line treatment with serplulimab in combination with chemotherapy is not a cost-effective option for patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma， but it may be an economic option to implement a charitable drug donation program for all patients or if the price of serplulimab is significantly reduced.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the economics of serplulimab combined with chemotherapy regimens for the first-line treatment of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer （ES-SCLC） from the perspective of health system in China. METHODS A partitioned survival model was constructed based on the ASTRUM-005 clinical trial and related literature data， with a model simulation time frame of 10 years and a 3-week cycle， and both cost and utility values were discounted using a 5% discount rate. The quality-adjusted life year （QALY） was used as a model output indicator and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） was calculated to evaluate the economics of serplulimab combined with chemotherapy regimens （serplulimab group） versus chemotherapy alone regimens （chemotherapy alone group） for the first-line treatment of ES-SCLC. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to verify the robustness of the results of the base-case analysis and to conduct a scenario analysis for the serplulimab patient assistance program. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis showed that compared with chemotherapy alone group， ICER of serplulimab group was 758 690.27 yuan/QALY， which was higher than 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in 2022 as the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold. The results of the scenario analysis showed that compared with chemotherapy alone group， the ICER of serplulimab group was 172 275.74 yuan/QALY， which was below above WTP threshold. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the progress-free survival utility value， serplulimab price and so on had a significant impact on the model results. The results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of the serplulimab group being economic was 0 when the serplulimab patient assistance program was not considered， but 100% when the patient assistance program was considered. CONCLUSIONS At a WTP threshold of 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2022， the serplulimab group is no cost-effectiveness compared to the chemotherapy alone group； however， this result is reversed when the patient assistance program is taken into account.