ABSTRACT
ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.
ABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the trends in the disease burden of schistosomiasis worldwide and in China, and Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2019, so as to provide insights into the formulation of the schistosomiasis control strategy in Zimbabwe. Methods Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) data sources, the age-standardized prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of schistosomiasis were compared in the world, China, and Zimbabwe and the trends in the disease burden of schistosomiasis from 1990 to 2019 were investigated using Joinpoint regression analysis. In addition, the associations between the burden of schistosomiasis worldwide and in China and Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2019 and socio-demographic index (SDI) were examined using Pearson correlation analysis. Results The age-standardized prevalence, mortality, and DALY rate of schistosomiasis were 1 804.95/105, 0.14/105 and 20.92/105 in the world, 707.09/105, 0.02/105 and 5.06/105 in China, and 2 218.90/105, 2.39/105 and 90.09/105 in Zimbabwe in 2019, respectively. The global prevalence, mortality, and DALY rate of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with age in 2019, while the prevalence and DALY rate of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a sharp rise followed by a fluctuating decline in both China and Zimbabwe, and the mortality of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a rise. The age-standardized prevalence [average annual percent change (AAPC) = −1.31%, −2.22% and −6.12%; t = −20.07, −83.38 and −53.06; all P values < 0.05)] and DALY rate of schistosomiasis (AAPC = −1.91%,−4.17% and −2.08%; t = −31.89, −138.70 and −16.45; all P values < 0.05) appeared a tendency towards a decline in the world, China and Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2019, and the age-standardized mortality of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in the world and China (AAPC = −3.46% and −8.10%, t = −41.03 and −61.74; both P values < 0.05), and towards a rise followed by a decline in Zimbabwe (AAPC = 1.35%, t = 4.88, P < 0.05). In addition, Pearson correlation analysis showed that the age-standardized prevalence (r = −0.75, P < 0.05), mortality (r = −0.73, P < 0.05), and DALY rate of schistosomiasis (r = −0.77, P < 0.05) correlated negatively with SDI in the world, China and Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2019. Conclusions The disease burden of schistosomiasis appeared a remarkable decline in China from 1990 to 2019, and the prevalence of schistosomiasis showed a tendency towards a decline in Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2019; however, the mortality and DALY rate of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe topped in the world. A schistosomiasis control strategy with adaptations to local epidemiology and control needs of schistosomiasis is needed to facilitate the elimination of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe.
ABSTRACT
Objective To introduce the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and explore its relationship with disease burden indicators. Methods Based on the data of GBD 2017, we describe the correlation between HALE, DALY rate, YLD rate, YLL rate and SDI from 1990 to 2017 in the global and other 7 countries to explore the practical application value of SDI. Results 1. With the increase of SDI, HALE increased significantly; YLL rate and DALY rate decreased significantly. 2. The trend of YLD rate in low-SDI countries was the same as that of YLL rate and DALY rate; in the high-SDI and middle-SDI countries with longer life spans, as SDI increased, YLD rate also increased. 3. Because the socio-demographic characteristics of different diseases (such as Cardiovascular diseases and Neoplasms) are quite different, we should specifically analyze their relationship with SDI. Conclusion SDI is a good indicator, which can be used as an important covariate to predict disease burden and health outcomes in various areas.